Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 19, 2025, 17:53 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (17:23 UTC - 17:53 UTC)

1. CONTINUED DRONE ATTACKS, SUMY OBLAST TARGETED (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (17:25 UTC) reports NEW DRONE THREATS from the NORTH towards SUMY OBLAST.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (17:28 UTC) confirms SHAHED DRONES NORTH OF ZAPORIZHZHIA, moving towards DNIPRO.
   • Assessment: The DRONE ATTACK CONTINUES UNABATED, with a NEW WAVE targeting SUMY OBLAST from the NORTH. DNIPRO remains UNDER THREAT. This suggests a MULTI-PRONGED, COORDINATED ATTACK.

2. CLAIMED RUSSIAN F-16 SHOOTDOWN (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, HIGHLY SUSPICIOUS):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (17:26 UTC) claims RUSSIAN FORCES SHOT DOWN an AMERICAN F-16 FIGHTER JET supporting a UKRAINIAN OFFENSIVE in BELGOROD OBLAST. Claims the UKRAINIAN PILOT WAS KILLED. Claims the shootdown occurred in SUMY OBLAST using an S-400 MISSILE, after being detected by a SU-35 FIGHTER.

   • Assessment: This claim REQUIRES EXTREME CAUTION AND URGENT VERIFICATION. NO INDEPENDENT CONFIRMATION EXISTS. Given the PREVIOUS CLAIMS of F-16 ACTIVITY in SUMY OBLAST, this claim COULD BE PROPAGANDA or a MISIDENTIFICATION. HOWEVER, if TRUE, this would represent a MAJOR ESCALATION and a SIGNIFICANT LOSS for UKRAINE. URGENTLY SEEK CONFIRMATION from US, UKRAINIAN, and OTHER ALLIED SOURCES.

3. ZELENSKY-TRUMP CALL DEVELOPMENTS (HIGH PRIORITY, MULTIPLE SOURCES, CONTRADICTORY INFORMATION):

   • РБК-Україна (17:29 UTC) reports a statement from White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, claiming Trump discussed with Zelensky bringing Ukraine and Russia to a "common denominator." The statement emphasizes "saving lives" and suggests the war wouldn't have happened under Trump.

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (17:30 UTC) reports the same statement from Karoline Leavitt.

   • РБК-Україна (17:35 UTC) reports a statement from Zelensky, claiming a "positive and meaningful" conversation with Trump. Zelensky claims to have SUPPORTED a FIRST STEP of HALTING STRIKES ON ENERGY AND CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE. Claims UKRAINE HAS ACCEPTED a US proposal for an UNCONDITIONAL CEASEFIRE on the FRONT LINE.

   • ТАСС (17:36 UTC) reports that Trump and Zelensky agreed that peace in Ukraine is possible.

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (17:42 UTC) reports Zelensky's statement about a positive conversation and acceptance of ceasefire proposals. Mentions discussions about freeing POWs, returning deported children, and strengthening air defense. Claims Ukrainian and US teams will meet in Saudi Arabia.

   • ТАСС (17:43 UTC) reports that Zelensky confirmed readiness for a full ceasefire in a phone call with Trump.

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (17:47 UTC) reports Zelensky's statement, confirming discussions about the situation in Kursk Oblast, POWs, stolen children, and air defense. Claims teams will meet in Saudi Arabia to discuss technical details of a partial ceasefire.

   • РБК-Україна (17:46 UTC) claims that a source stated the following: "The conversation was really positive, we managed to discuss many things. And what was discussed with Putin (in yesterday's conversation between Trump and Putin, - ed.), and the possibility of expanding the ceasefire, and the release of prisoners. The President (of Ukraine, - ed.) constantly promotes the idea of releasing prisoners as one of the first steps. The President also raised the issue of air defense to help us strengthen ourselves," said an informed source of RBC-Ukraine."

   • Assessment: The situation remains EXTREMELY CONFUSING AND CONTRADICTORY. While MULTIPLE SOURCES claim ZELENSKY AGREED to HALT STRIKES ON ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE and ACCEPTED AN UNCONDITIONAL CEASEFIRE, this DIRECTLY CONTRADICTS EARLIER UKRAINIAN CLAIMS of ONLY DISCUSSIONS and RUSSIAN REJECTION of a FULL CEASEFIRE. ZELENSKY'S CLAIM of ACCEPTING A CEASEFIRE is HIGHLY SUSPICIOUS and REQUIRES URGENT CLARIFICATION. MULTIPLE SOURCES report UPCOMING TALKS in SAUDI ARABIA. TRUMP'S CLAIM of WORKING WITH ZELENSKY to find COMMON GROUND with RUSSIA is NOT NECESSARILY SUPPORTED by UKRAINIAN STATEMENTS.

4. TRUMP-ZELENSKY CALL - AIR DEFENSE REQUESTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (17:40 UTC) reports Zelensky requested NEW AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS, including PATRIOTS, from Trump, who said he would "see what's available."

   • Оперативний ЗСU (17:42 UTC) confirms Zelensky requested ADDITIONAL PATRIOT SYSTEMS from Trump.

   • РБК-Україна (17:53 UTC) reports the same, quoting White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt.

   • ТАСС (17:37 UTC) reports that Trump agreed to work with Zelensky on his request for additional air defense systems.

   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS that UKRAINE is SEEKING ADDITIONAL AIR DEFENSE SUPPORT. TRUMP'S RESPONSE is NON-COMMITTAL.

5. US INTELLIGENCE SHARING (MEDIUM PRIORITY, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (17:41 UTC) claims US INTELLIGENCE SHARING with UKRAINE will CONTINUE.

   • ТАСС (17:39 UTC) claims the US will continue providing Ukraine with defensive intelligence.

   • Assessment: This suggests CONTINUED US SUPPORT in the form of INTELLIGENCE, but LIMITED to DEFENSIVE PURPOSES.

6. TRUMP ON UKRAINIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE CONTROL (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Оперативний ЗСU (17:49 UTC) and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (17:53 UTC) report that Trump stated that if the US owned Ukrainian power plants, it would be the best protection for this infrastructure.
   • Assessment: This is a HIGHLY UNUSUAL AND CONTROVERSIAL STATEMENT. It IMPLIES US CONTROL over UKRAINIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE, which is UNLIKELY to be ACCEPTABLE to UKRAINE. This could be a MISREPRESENTATION or a PRESSURE TACTIC.

7. RUSSIAN ADVANCES (MEDIUM, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):

   • Военкор Котенок (17:30 UTC): Reports Russian forces have cleared a mine in Toretsk, and are "narrowing" the cauldron, using cargo drones, and claiming use of other equipment will be more difficult.

• Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (17:31) Reports on a Russian advance, with the 68th Regiment advancing 800m, taking a stronghold and forest.

8. OTHER:

• ASTRA (17:18 UTC): Reports that Roskomnadzor blocked two more OVD-Info services and a third-party resource.
• Старше Эдды (17:45 UTC): Comments on the statement from the US about providing Ukraine with defensive intelligence.
• Старше Эдды (17:42 UTC): Comments on the statement from Trump on a deal.
• ТАСС (17:46) Reports a protest to the Moldovan ambassador in Moscow.
• Colonelcassad (17:42 UTC): Comments on the Trump-Zelensky-Putin call.
• ТАСС (17:48 UTC): Reports that expert groups from the US and Ukraine will meet in Saudi Arabia.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • CONTINUED, WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACKS, with a NEW WAVE targeting SUMY OBLAST. DNIPRO remains UNDER THREAT.
  • HIGHLY CONTRADICTORY INFORMATION regarding ZELENSKY-TRUMP CALL OUTCOMES. MULTIPLE SOURCES claim ZELENSKY AGREED to a CEASEFIRE and HALT TO ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE ATTACKS, but this CONTRADICTS EARLIER UKRAINIAN STATEMENTS. URGENT CLARIFICATION NEEDED.
  • CLAIMED RUSSIAN SHOOTDOWN OF AN F-16 in SUMY OBLAST. REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • UPCOMING TALKS between UKRAINIAN AND US TEAMS in SAUDI ARABIA.
  • UKRAINE REQUESTED ADDITIONAL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS, including PATRIOTS, from TRUMP. TRUMP'S RESPONSE WAS NON-COMMITTAL.
  • CONFIRMED CONTINUED US INTELLIGENCE SHARING with UKRAINE, but LIMITED to DEFENSIVE PURPOSES.

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

• REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES near TORETSK.

*   ***TRUMP'S STATEMENT*** about *US CONTROL* of *UKRAINIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE*. *HIGHLY CONTROVERSIAL*.

Updated Recommendations

1. COUNTER THE ONGOING DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS across ALL AFFECTED REGIONS, with PARTICULAR FOCUS on SUMY OBLAST and DNIPRO.
   • DEPLOY COUNTER-DRONE MEASURES as AVAILABLE.
   • ISSUE WARNINGS to CIVILIANS in AFFECTED AREAS to SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.
   • PRIORITIZE PROTECTION OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE.
   • MONITOR DRONE MOVEMENTS and ADJUST DEFENSES accordingly, using ALL AVAILABLE TRACKING DATA.

2. CLARIFY THE ZELENSKY-TRUMP CALL OUTCOMES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • URGENTLY SEEK CLARIFICATION from UKRAINIAN OFFICIAL SOURCES regarding the EXACT AGREEMENTS made during the ZELENSKY-TRUMP CALL.
   • SPECIFICALLY ADDRESS the CLAIMS of a FULL CEASEFIRE and a HALT TO ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE ATTACKS.
   • COORDINATE CLOSELY WITH US ALLIES to UNDERSTAND THE US POSITION and DEVELOP A UNIFIED RESPONSE.
   • PUBLICLY REFUTE ANY FALSE CLAIMS about a FULL CEASEFIRE or UNACCEPTABLE CONCESSIONS.
   • PREPARE FOR CONTINUED FIGHTING, given the HIGH LIKELIHOOD of DISINFORMATION and CONFLICTING REPORTS.

3. VERIFY THE CLAIMED F-16 SHOOTDOWN (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the RUSSIAN CLAIM of an F-16 SHOOTDOWN.
   • CONTACT US AND UKRAINIAN MILITARY SOURCES to VERIFY PILOT AND AIRCRAFT STATUS.
   • ANALYZE AVAILABLE RADAR DATA AND SIGNAL INTELLIGENCE.
   • **IF CONFIRMED, ASSESS THE IMPLICATIONS for AIR OPERATIONS and PILOT SAFETY.

4. PREPARE FOR THE SAUDI ARABIA TALKS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • CLARIFY UKRAINE'S OBJECTIVES AND RED LINES for the UPCOMING TALKS.
   • COORDINATE WITH US ALLIES to DEVELOP A UNIFIED STRATEGY.
   • ENSURE UKRAINIAN REPRESENTATIVES ARE FULLY BRIEFED on the LATEST INTELLIGENCE and MILITARY SITUATION.

5. ADDRESS THE AIR DEFENSE REQUEST (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • CONTINUE TO PRESS THE US and OTHER ALLIES for ADDITIONAL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS, including PATRIOTS.
   • EXPLORE ALTERNATIVE SOURCES of AIR DEFENSE EQUIPMENT.
   • OPTIMIZE THE DEPLOYMENT of EXISTING AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS to MAXIMIZE COVERAGE of CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE and POPULATION CENTERS.

6. ADDRESS TRUMP'S STATEMENT ON ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • SEEK CLARIFICATION from US OFFICIALS regarding TRUMP'S STATEMENT.
   • PUBLICLY REJECT ANY SUGGESTION of US CONTROL over UKRAINIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE.
   • REINFORCE UKRAINE'S SOVEREIGNTY over its CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE.

7. MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND DYNAMIC. The CONTINUED DRONE ATTACKS pose an IMMEDIATE THREAT. The CONFLICTING REPORTS about the ZELENSKY-TRUMP CALL and the CLAIMED F-16 SHOOTDOWN create MAJOR UNCERTAINTY and POTENTIAL RISKS. RAPID, ACCURATE INTELLIGENCE, ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES, and CLOSE COORDINATION WITH ALLIES are ESSENTIAL.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

• The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.88
• Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
• The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
• The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
• The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
• Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
• Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
• Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
• Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
• 35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
• Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
• Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
• Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
• Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
• Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
• Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
• There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
• Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
• Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
• Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
• The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
• Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
• There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
• There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
• There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
• Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
• There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
• Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
• Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
• Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.88
• There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
• A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
• A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
• A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
• Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
• Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
• Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
• There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
• Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
• There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
• Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
• There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
• A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
• Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
• Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
• Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
• Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
• Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
• Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
• The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
• The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
• The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
• Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
• A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
• The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
• US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
• The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
• The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
• Intense fighting continues in the area of ​​Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
• The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
• The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
• The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
• Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
• Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
• The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
• Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
• Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
• Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
• On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
• Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
• Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
• Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
• Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
• The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
• One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
• Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
• Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
• Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
• 40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
• Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
• Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
• Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
• Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
• Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
• Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
• Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
• There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
• A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
• A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
• An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
• Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
• All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
• The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
• Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
• The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
• 180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
• 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
• Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
• Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
• Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
• Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
• Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
• Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
• Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
• Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
• UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
• Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
• The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
• Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
• Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
• Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
• The new Canadian Prime Minister
• Qatar supports initiatives to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, according to the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs.: 0.9
• The Ukrainian General Staff has confirmed the loss of Sudzha, now under Russian control.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Russian Drone operators struck a temporary deployment point in Razliv.: 0.899999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Enemy tactical aviation activity in the north, with threat of airborne weapons.: 0.8
• Hull Daily Mail claimed 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in the Kursk direction.: 0.1
• A Leopard tank was destroyed by Russian drone operators in the south-donetsk direction.: 0.7
• A MaxxPro armored vehicle was destroyed by Russian drone operators in the south-donetsk direction.: 0.7
• A Russian "Vandal" drone destroyed a Ukrainian "wooden" armored vehicle.: 0.6
• Russian forces advanced 2 km on the eastern outskirts of Krasnoarmeysk, reaching Tarasovka.: 0.4
• Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk region.: 0.4
• The Russian Air Force used a FAB-3000 bomb to destroy a Ukrainian fortified position in the Kursk direction.: 0.8
• A Russian infantry attack towards Veseloe.: 0.65
• Russian advances on the Burlatskoe-Skudnoe line, extending control by up to 2.5 km.: 0.8
• In the Kharkiv Direction, units of the "North" group of troops inflicted damage on formations of the assault battalion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the border detachment of the Ukrainian Border Guard Service in the areas of the settlements of Perovskoe and Kazachya Lopan in the Kharkiv region.: 0.7
• The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 70 servicemen, six vehicles, four artillery pieces, and an electronic warfare station in the Kharkiv Direction.: 0.6
• Units of the "South" group of troops have occupied more advantageous lines and positions.: 0.6
• The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 305 servicemen, a tank, an armored fighting vehicle, four vehicles, seven field artillery pieces, including four Western-made, and a Croatian-made RAK-SA-12 multiple rocket launcher system. A material warehouse was destroyed.: 0.5
• Units of the "Center" group of troops continued to advance deep into the enemy's defense.: 0.6
• The enemy lost up to 450 servicemen, five armored fighting vehicles, eight pickup trucks, five artillery pieces, and an electronic warfare station in the Center Direction.: 0.5
• Units of the "East" group of troops have improved their position along the front line.: 0.5
• The Ukrainian Armed Forces losses amounted to over 150 servicemen, two armored fighting vehicles, five vehicles, and three field artillery pieces in the East Direction.: 0.4
• Units of the "Dnipro" group of troops inflicted damage on the manpower and equipment of two mechanized, mountain assault brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Up to 90 servicemen, five vehicles, two field artillery pieces, and three electronic warfare stations were destroyed.: 0.5
• Air defense systems shot down four US-made JDAM guided bombs and 141 fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles.: 0.6
• Since the beginning of the special military operation, 658 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 46917 unmanned aerial vehicles, 601 anti-aircraft missile systems, 22297 tanks and other armored fighting vehicles, 1529 multiple launch rocket systems, 22620 field artillery and mortars, and 32940 special military vehicles have been destroyed.: 0.4
• Enemy tactical aviation activity in the southern direction.: 0.85
• Threat of the use of aviation weapons for frontline areas.: 0.8
• Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in Sumy region.: 0.8
• Ukrainian forces successfully repelled 36 attacks in the Pokrovsk area.: 0.8
• From March 10-16, 2025, Ukrainian air defenses destroyed over 850 aerial targets.: 0.8
• 1 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile was destroyed: 0.7
• 515 Shahed attack drones were destroyed.: 0.8
• 170 reconnaissance drones were destroyed.: 0.8
• 172 other types of drones were destroyed.: 0.7
• The Ukrainian Air Force conducted over 160 sorties during the week.: 0.8
• Russian forces are evacuating civilians from recently liberated Sudzha and Kazachya Loknya.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• About 40 civilians were evacuated from Sudzha, including bedridden patients: 0.7
• 371 people, including 14 children, have been evacuated from liberated settlements in the Kursk region since March 12.: 0.6
• A phone call between Putin and Trump is expected next week.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Whitkoff's meeting with Putin in Moscow lasted 3-4 hours and was "positive".: 0.7
• Putin