Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 19, 2025, 16:53 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (16:23 UTC - 16:53 UTC)

1. CLAIMED ZELENSKY AGREEMENT TO CEASE ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES, HIGHLY SUSPICIOUS):

   • Bloomberg, reported by РБК-Україна (16:41 UTC), ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (16:40 UTC) and Оперативний ЗСУ (16:42 UTC): Claims Zelensky, during his call with Trump, agreed to stop attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.

   • Assessment: This claim is EXTREMELY DUBIOUS and MUST BE TREATED WITH THE UTMOST SKEPTICISM. It CONTRADICTS PREVIOUS UKRAINIAN POLICY and RECENT ACTIONS, specifically the CONFIRMED MAJOR FIRE at the "KAVKAZ" OIL TRANSFER STATION. The SOURCE is UNNAMED, and the CLAIM aligns with RUSSIAN NARRATIVES. It is HIGHLY LIKELY to be DISINFORMATION or a MISREPRESENTATION of the CONVERSATION. This requires IMMEDIATE AND URGENT VERIFICATION from RELIABLE UKRAINIAN SOURCES. The REPORTED HOUTHI ATTACK on the ISRAELI SHIP in the INDIAN OCEAN (from the 08:03 update) adds another layer of UNCERTAINTY and POTENTIAL ESCALATION.

2. CLAIMED F-16 SHOOTDOWN (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES, UNVERIFIED):

   • Alex Parker Returns (16:31 UTC): Claims an F-16 was shot down over Sumy Oblast, flying towards the border with Kursk Oblast.
   • Два майора (16:32 UTC): Reports success of Russian air defense in Sumy Oblast.
   • Дневник Десантника (16:33 UTC): Confirms the F-16 shootdown.

• Военкор Котенок (16:48 UTC): Reports information about Ukrainian F-16 shot down over Sumy Oblast is preliminary and unconfirmed.
• Assessment: This claim is UNVERIFIED. The MULTIPLE RUSSIAN SOURCES reporting the SHOOTDOWN are NOT INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION. The LACK OF UKRAINIAN COMMENT is NOTABLE. IMMEDIATE ATTEMPTS to VERIFY this CLAIM are CRITICAL. This COULD BE DISINFORMATION.

3. REPORTED DRONE IN KAZAKHSTAN (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • РБК-Україна (16:25 UTC, reporting on Kazinform), Оперативний ЗСУ (16:31 UTC): Reports a drone resembling a Russian "Shahed" crashed in the West Kazakhstan region.

   • ASTRA (16:30, 16:50 UTC): Reports the downed drone in Kazakhstan has the inscription "Geran" ("Герань"), the Russian name for the Shahed-136. Confirms location as Taskalinsky District, West Kazakhstan Region.

   • Assessment: The CRASH of a DRONE resembling a RUSSIAN "SHAHED" in KAZAKHSTAN is CONFIRMED. The INSCRIPTION "GERAN" STRONGLY SUGGESTS it is a RUSSIAN DRONE. The IMPLICATIONS of this are UNCLEAR. It COULD BE an ERRANT DRONE, a TEST, or a DELIBERATE ACT. FURTHER INVESTIGATION is REQUIRED.

4. CONTINUED FIGHTING NEAR BELGOROD BORDER (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (16:26 UTC): Claims Ukrainian forces attempted to break through to Demidovka in the Belgorod region, breaching "dragon's teeth" defenses with IMR engineering vehicles (which were reportedly destroyed). Claims continued attempts to break through with armored vehicles and infantry, all of which were reportedly repelled.

   • Два майора (16:47 UTC): Reports an attempted incursion by a Ukrainian DRG of up to 15 people near Grayvoron, Belgorod Oblast. Claims the group was destroyed on approach, with a few survivors escaping.

   • Assessment: These REPORTS suggest CONTINUED UKRAINIAN EFFORTS to CONDUCT CROSS-BORDER RAIDS into the BELGOROD REGION. The CLAIMED DESTRUCTION of UKRAINIAN FORCES is CONSISTENT with PREVIOUS REPORTS, but REQUIRES INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION. The SPECIFIC FOCUS on DEMIDOVKA and GRAYVORON is NOTEWORTHY.

5. OTHER:

   • Colonelcassad (16:24 UTC): Claims Russian forces shot down 7 of their own drones after the Trump-Putin call.
   • Assessment: This is, again, highly suspicious, and likely propaganda.
   • ТАСС (16:25 UTC): Reports six people injured and four killed in a vehicle collision in Dagestan.

• Alex Parker Returns (16:37): Shows footage of what he claims is the F-16, showing a jet flying over Sumy.
• Assessment: The identity cannot be confirmed by this footage.
• Басурин о главном (16:16 UTC): Claims British Special Forces are ready to go to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping mission.
• Assessment: This is an unverified claim.
• Дневник Десантника (16:18): Claims Russian gains near Kupyansk. * Assessment: This is an unverified claim. * СТЕРНЕНКО (16:20 UTC): Reports damage to Russian equipment. * Assessment: This is an unverified claim.
• Офіс Генерального прокурора (16:12 UTC), Оперативний ЗСУ (16:12 UTC): Reports on crimes against humanity committed by Russia on occupied territories.
• Assessment: This is important to note for legal reasons.
• БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (16:56 UTC): Shows footage of Ukrainian troops engaging Russian troops, and mocking the situation.
• Assessment: This is a propaganda message.
• 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (16:30 UTC): Reports four injured as a result of missile attacks.
• Assessment: Confirmed.
• СТЕРНЕНКО (16:42 UTC): Reports fire in the Kemerovo region.
• Assessment: Not strategically significant.
• ТАСС (16:43 UTC): Shows footage of released Russian POWs.
• Assessment: This is a propaganda message.
• РБК-Україна (16:47 UTC): Reports on the failure of peace talks between Israel and Hamas.
• Assessment: Not strategically significant.
• Дневник Десантника (16:48): Claims Zelensky has agreed to stop attacking energy facilities.
• Assessment: This is likely disinformation.
• Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (16:49 UTC): Shows footage of Ukrainian training.
• Assessment: Propaganda.
• ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (16:50 UTC): Reports on the return of Ukrainian POWs.
• Assessment: Confirmed.
• 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (16:50 UTC): Reports 24 POWs are from Zaporizhia.
• Assessment: Confirmed.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • CLAIMED ZELENSKY AGREEMENT TO CEASE ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE ATTACKS. HIGHLY SUSPICIOUS and LIKELY DISINFORMATION. URGENT VERIFICATION REQUIRED.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • CLAIMED F-16 SHOOTDOWN over SUMY OBLAST. UNVERIFIED, but REQUIRES IMMEDIATE INVESTIGATION.
  • CONFIRMED LARGE FIRE at "KAVKAZ" OIL TRANSFER STATION, RUSSIA. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE and POTENTIAL DISRUPTION to RUSSIAN OIL SUPPLIES. LIKELY UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKE.

• CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKE THREAT, particularly GUIDED BOMB ATTACKS in SUMY OBLAST. * RUSSIAN FORCES continue an OFFENSIVE in the ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION.

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

• CONFIRMED DRONE CRASH in KAZAKHSTAN. LIKELY RUSSIAN "SHAHED". IMPLICATIONS UNCLEAR.

• RUSSIAN CLAIMS of ADVANCES in the DZERZHINSK AREA and NEAR ANDRIIVKA. REQUIRES VERIFICATION. * CLAIMED UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWAL in KURSK OBLAST. LIKELY EXAGGERATED.

• CONTINUED FIGHTING near BELGOROD BORDER, with REPORTED UKRAINIAN INCURSIONS near DEMIDOVKA and GRAYVORON.

Updated Recommendations

1. ADDRESS THE CLAIM OF ZELENSKY'S AGREEMENT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • URGENTLY CONTACT UKRAINIAN OFFICIALS to VERIFY or REFUTE the CLAIM that ZELENSKY AGREED to STOP ATTACKS on RUSSIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE.
   • IF REFUTED, ISSUE A PUBLIC STATEMENT DENYING the CLAIM and REITERATING UKRAINIAN POLICY.
   • INVESTIGATE THE SOURCE of the CLAIM to IDENTIFY POTENTIAL DISINFORMATION EFFORTS.
   • PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL FURTHER ATTACKS on RUSSIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE, regardless of the VERACITY of the CLAIM.

2. INVESTIGATE THE F-16 CLAIM (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to VERIFY the CLAIM of an F-16 SHOOTDOWN over SUMY OBLAST.
   • CHECK WITH UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE and ALLIED INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES.
   • **ANALYZE RADAR DATA, SIGNAL INTELLIGENCE, and HUMAN INTELLIGENCE to DETERMINE IF AN F-16 WAS OPERATING in the AREA and IF IT WAS LOST.
   • IF CONFIRMED, INITIATE SEARCH AND RESCUE OPERATIONS if POSSIBLE.
   • IF NOT CONFIRMED, PREPARE TO COUNTER RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION.

3. INVESTIGATE THE KAZAKHSTAN DRONE CRASH (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • COORDINATE WITH KAZAKHSTANI AUTHORITIES to GATHER INFORMATION about the DOWNED DRONE.
   • ANALYZE THE DRONE FRAGMENTS to CONFIRM ITS TYPE and ORIGIN.
   • DETERMINE THE DRONE'S FLIGHT PATH and POTENTIAL INTENDED TARGET.
   • ASSESS THE IMPLICATIONS for REGIONAL SECURITY and RELATIONS.

4. CONTINUE MONITORING THE BELGOROD BORDER SITUATION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS regarding the BELGOROD BORDER.
   • DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to VERIFY CLAIMS of UKRAINIAN INCURSIONS and LOSSES.
   • MONITOR RUSSIAN FORCES in the AREA for SIGNS of REINFORCEMENTS or CHANGES IN POSTURE.

5. MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND HIGHLY DYNAMIC. The CLAIMED ZELENSKY AGREEMENT to CEASE ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE ATTACKS is a MAJOR CONCERN that REQUIRES IMMEDIATE ATTENTION and LIKELY REFUTATION. The UNVERIFIED F-16 SHOOTDOWN CLAIM and the CONFIRMED DRONE CRASH in KAZAKHSTAN add FURTHER UNCERTAINTY and POTENTIAL ESCALATION. RAPID INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, EFFECTIVE RESOURCE ALLOCATION, and a WILLINGNESS TO ADAPT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING CIRCUMSTANCES are ESSENTIAL.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

• Vostok group is actively engaged in evacuating civilians from conflict zones.: 0.8998
• Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
• The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
• The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
• The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
• Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
• Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
• Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
• Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
• 35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
• Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
• Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
• Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
• Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
• Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
• Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
• There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
• Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
• Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
• Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
• The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
• Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
• There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
• There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
• There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
• Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
• There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
• Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
• Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
• Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.88
• There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
• A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
• A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
• A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
• Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
• Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
• Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
• There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
• Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
• There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
• Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
• There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
• A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
• Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
• Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
• Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
• Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
• Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
• Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
• The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
• The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
• The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
• Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
• A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
• The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
• US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
• The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
• The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
• Intense fighting continues in the area of ​​Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
• The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
• The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
• The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
• Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
• Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
• The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
• Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
• Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
• Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
• On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
• Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
• Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
• Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
• Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
• The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
• One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
• Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
• Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
• Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
• 40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
• Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
• Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
• Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
• Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
• Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
• Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
• Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
• There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
• A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
• A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
• An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
• Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
• All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
• The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
• Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
• The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
• 180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
• 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
• Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
• Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
• Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.999999999999999999999999
• Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
• Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
• Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
• Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
• Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
• Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
• UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
• Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
• The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
• Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
• Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
• Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
• The new Canadian Prime Minister intends to take a firm stance against the US on trade issues.: 0.16
• Trade relations between Canada and the US will remain strained in the near future.: 0.08
• An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
• Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
• Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
• A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
• The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.8
• Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78
• There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.58
• The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
• The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
• A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
• Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
• The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
• Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
• There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
• Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
• Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.78
• Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
• Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
• Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
• Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
• Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
• Russian Ka-52 pilots are employing specific attack profiles and targeting strategies.: 0.47
• Russian helicopters are operating in contested airspace and employing electronic warfare countermeasures.: 0.47
• The video is part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonstrate military strength and operational effectiveness.: 0.47
• Ukraine is attempting to persuade the US to resume intelligence and military support.: 0.78
• Ukraine is offering a partial ceasefire on long-range drone/missile
• Qatar supports initiatives to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, according to the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs.: 0.9
• The Ukrainian General Staff has confirmed the loss of Sudzha, now under Russian control.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Russian Drone operators struck a temporary deployment point in Razliv.: 0.8999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Enemy tactical aviation activity in the north, with threat of airborne weapons.: 0.8
• Hull Daily Mail claimed 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in the Kursk direction.: 0.1
• A Leopard tank was destroyed by Russian drone operators in the south-donetsk direction.: 0.7
• A MaxxPro armored vehicle was destroyed by Russian drone operators in the south-donetsk direction.: 0.7
• A Russian "Vandal" drone destroyed a Ukrainian "wooden" armored vehicle.: 0.6
• Russian forces advanced 2 km on the eastern outskirts of Krasnoarmeysk, reaching Tarasovka.: 0.4
• Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk region.: 0.4
• The Russian Air Force used a FAB-3000 bomb to destroy a Ukrainian fortified position in the Kursk direction.: 0.8
• A Russian infantry attack towards Veseloe.: 0.65
• Russian advances on the Burlatskoe-Skudnoe line, extending control by up to 2.5 km.: 0.8
• In the Kharkiv Direction, units of the "North" group of troops inflicted damage on formations of the assault battalion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the border detachment of the Ukrainian Border Guard Service in the areas of the settlements of Perovskoe and Kazachya Lopan in the Kharkiv region.: 0.7
• The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 70 servicemen, six vehicles, four artillery pieces, and an electronic warfare station in the Kharkiv Direction.: 0.6
• Units of the "South" group of troops have occupied more advantageous lines and positions.: 0.6
• The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 305 servicemen, a tank, an armored fighting vehicle, four vehicles, seven field artillery pieces, including four Western-made, and a Croatian-made RAK-SA-12 multiple rocket launcher system. A material warehouse was destroyed.: 0.5
• Units of the "Center" group of troops continued to advance deep into the enemy's defense.: 0.6
• The enemy lost up to 450 servicemen, five armored fighting vehicles, eight pickup trucks, five artillery pieces, and an electronic warfare station in the Center Direction.: 0.5
• Units of the "East" group of troops have improved their position along the front line.: 0.5
• The Ukrainian Armed Forces losses amounted to over 150 servicemen, two armored fighting vehicles, five vehicles, and three field artillery pieces in the East Direction.: 0.4
• Units of the "Dnipro" group of troops inflicted damage on the manpower and equipment of two mechanized, mountain assault brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Up to 90 servicemen, five vehicles, two field artillery pieces, and three electronic warfare stations were destroyed.: 0.5
• Air defense systems shot down four US-made JDAM guided bombs and 141 fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles.: 0.6
• Since the beginning of the special military operation, 658 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 46917 unmanned aerial vehicles, 601 anti-aircraft missile systems, 22297 tanks and other armored fighting vehicles, 1529 multiple launch rocket systems, 22620 field artillery and mortars, and 32940 special military vehicles have been destroyed.: 0.4
• Enemy tactical aviation activity in the southern direction.: 0.85
• Threat of the use of aviation weapons for frontline areas.: 0.8
• Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in Sumy region.: 0.8
• Ukrainian forces successfully repelled 36 attacks in the Pokrovsk area.: 0.8
• From March 10-16, 2025, Ukrainian air defenses destroyed over 850 aerial targets.: 0.8
• 1 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile was destroyed: 0.7
• 515 Shahed attack drones were destroyed.: 0.8
• 170 reconnaissance drones were destroyed.: 0.8
• 172 other types of drones were destroyed.: 0.7
• The Ukrainian Air Force conducted over 160 sorties during the week.: 0.8
• Russian forces are evacuating civilians from recently liberated Sudzha and Kazachya Loknya.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• About 40 civilians were evacuated from Sudzha, including bedridden patients: 0.7
• 371 people, including 14 children, have been evacuated from liberated settlements in the Kursk region since March 12.: 0.6
• A phone call between Putin and Trump is expected next week.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999