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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-03-19 05:03:23Z
11 months ago
Previous (2025-03-19 04:33:57Z)

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 19, 2025, 05:02 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (04:32 UTC - 05:02 UTC)

  1. CONFIRMED RUSSIAN STRIKE ON FUEL DEPOTS, DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • TASS (04:33 UTC): Reports that Russian forces struck Ukrainian fuel depots near Orelskoye, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, impacting Ukrainian supply lines, including those on the Zaporizhzhia front. Vladimir Rogov is cited as the source.
    • Assessment: This CONFIRMS a RUSSIAN STRIKE on FUEL INFRASTRUCTURE. The TARGET (FUEL DEPOTS) and the CLAIMED IMPACT ON SUPPLY LINES are SIGNIFICANT. This is CONSISTENT WITH RUSSIAN STRATEGY to DISRUPT UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS and WEAKEN its WAR EFFORT.
  2. REPORTED LARGE-SCALE UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK ON RUSSIA (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):

    • TASS (04:36 UTC), Два майора (04:39 UTC), ASTRA (04:45 UTC): Reports that Russian air defenses shot down 57 Ukrainian drones over various regions of Russia overnight. Breakdown: 35 over Kursk Oblast, 13 over Oryol Oblast, 7 over the Azov Sea, 1 over Tula Oblast, 1 over Bryansk Oblast. ASTRA notes that the Russian Ministry of Defense did not mention Krasnodar Krai, where an oil depot in the Kavkazskaya station was burning after a drone strike.
    • Assessment: This CONFIRMS a MASSIVE, COORDINATED UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK deep inside RUSSIAN TERRITORY. The SCALE (57 DRONES) is UNPRECEDENTED in RECENT REPORTS. The TARGETED REGIONS suggest a MULTI-AXIS ATTACK aimed at DISRUPTING RUSSIAN LOGISTICS, DAMAGING INFRASTRUCTURE, and STRETCHING RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSES. The DISCREPANCY between the OFFICIAL REPORT and REPORTS FROM KRASNODAR KRAI is NOTABLE.
  3. DAMAGE AND CASUALTIES IN KYIV OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Оперативний ЗСУ (04:37 UTC, multiple posts), Север.Реалии (04:45 UTC): Reports that a 60-year-old man was injured in the Buchansky district of Kyiv Oblast during a Russian attack. Nine private houses were damaged and partially destroyed in three settlements of the district. Fires were extinguished in three townhouses. Grass fires were extinguished in the Obukhivsky and Fastovsky districts. A private house was damaged in the Boryspil district.
    • Assessment: This CONFIRMS DAMAGE and CASUALTIES in the KYIV REGION as a RESULT OF RUSSIAN ATTACKS. This indicates that, DESPITE INCREASED AIR DEFENSES, RUSSIAN STRIKES are STILL REACHING the CAPITAL REGION.
  4. CLAIMED CESSATION OF OPERATIONS, KAVKAZSKAYA OIL STATION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

    • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (04:50 UTC, multiple posts): Reports that the operation of the Kavkazskaya oil transshipment station in Kuban has been stopped after a drone attack.
    • Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of an ATTACK on the KAVKAZSKAYA OIL FACILITY. The CLAIM OF CESSATION OF OPERATIONS is SIGNIFICANT, as it IMPACTS RUSSIAN FUEL LOGISTICS. The report also states 30 employees had been evacuated.
  5. CONFIRMED RUSSIAN STRIKE ON SLOVYANSK, CASUALTIES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN/RUSSIAN SOURCES):

    • ASTRA (04:57 UTC): Reports that a Russian attack on Slovyansk on March 18, 2025, at 20:50, injured three civilians (two men with blast injuries and contusions, one woman with acute stress reaction). Twenty-one private houses and vehicles were damaged. An investigation into war crimes has been launched.
    • Assessment: This CONFIRMS a RUSSIAN STRIKE on SLOVYANSK, causing CIVILIAN CASUALTIES and DAMAGE. This is a CONTINUATION OF RUSSIAN ATTACKS on CIVILIAN AREAS.
  6. UPCOMING NEGOTIATIONS DETAILS, JEDDAH (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Оперативний ЗСУ (04:56 UTC): Reports that work on the details of a ceasefire in Ukraine will be carried out on Sunday, March 23, in Jeddah, according to Trump's special representative, Witkoff. The draft agreement covers strikes on infrastructure in general, not just energy.
    • Assessment: This REITERATES PREVIOUS INFORMATION about UPCOMING NEGOTIATIONS, but CLARIFIES that the CEASEFIRE would cover ALL INFRASTRUCTURE, not just ENERGY.
  7. RUSSIAN DRONE OPERATIONS, TARGETING

    • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (05:01 UTC): Reports that a drone located an enemy hiding place.
  8. BELGOROD REGION, COMPLEX SITUATION

  • Дневник Десантника (05:01 UTC): The situation in the Krasnoyaruzhsky district of the Belgorod region remains difficult. Russian forces continue to engage enemy groups. Yesterday, around 40 airstrikes were carried out to prevent a counterattack. At night, the enemy attacked the area of Grafovka, Demidovka, and Prilesye with MLRS, as well as engineering vehicles, tanks, and armored vehicles. Civilians were also attacked, with casualties and deaths reported. Evacuations have taken place in a number of settlements. Currently, repelling enemy attacks continues, and there is an active search for enemy fire points.

Updated Situation Summary

  • EXTREME PRIORITY:

    • CONFIRMED LARGE-SCALE UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK on MULTIPLE REGIONS of RUSSIA. UNPRECEDENTED SCALE (57 DRONES REPORTEDLY SHOT DOWN). POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE to RUSSIAN INFRASTRUCTURE and LOGISTICS.
    • CONTINUED RUSSIAN STRIKES on UKRAINIAN INFRASTRUCTURE, including CONFIRMED STRIKE on FUEL DEPOTS in DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST.
  • HIGH PRIORITY:

    • CONFIRMED RUSSIAN STRIKE on SLOVYANSK, causing CIVILIAN CASUALTIES and DAMAGE.
    • DAMAGE AND CASUALTIES reported in KYIV OBLAST from RUSSIAN ATTACKS.
    • REPORTED CESSATION OF OPERATIONS at KAVKAZSKAYA OIL STATION in RUSSIA due to DRONE ATTACK.
    • UPCOMING US-RUSSIA NEGOTIATIONS in JEDDAH on SUNDAY (MARCH 23), with a PROPOSED CEASEFIRE covering ALL INFRASTRUCTURE.
    • RUSSIAN DRONE OPERATIONS.
    • BELGOROD SITUATION IS COMPLEX
  • MEDIUM PRIORITY:

    • RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSES INTERCEPTING DRONES over VARIOUS REGIONS.
  • LOW PRIORITY:

    • PROPAGANDA messages about RUSSIAN MILITARY SUCCESSES and UKRAINIAN LOSSES.

Updated Recommendations

  1. ASSESS THE IMPACT OF THE UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

    • VERIFY REPORTS of DAMAGE from the UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK on RUSSIAN TERRITORY, particularly the CLAIMED CESSATION OF OPERATIONS at the KAVKAZSKAYA OIL STATION.
    • ASSESS THE IMPACT of this ATTACK on RUSSIAN LOGISTICS and MILITARY CAPABILITIES.
    • EVALUATE THE EFFECTIVENESS of RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSES in INTERCEPTING THE DRONES.
    • PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL RETALIATORY STRIKES from RUSSIA.
  2. ADDRESS THE RUSSIAN STRIKE ON FUEL DEPOTS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

    • ASSESS THE DAMAGE to the FUEL DEPOTS in DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST and the IMPACT on UKRAINIAN SUPPLY LINES.
    • IMPLEMENT MEASURES to MITIGATE the IMPACT of the STRIKE on MILITARY OPERATIONS.
    • REINFORCE DEFENSES around OTHER CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE.
  3. RESPOND TO CASUALTIES AND DAMAGE IN KYIV AND SLOVYANSK (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

    • PROVIDE MEDICAL ASSISTANCE to the INJURED in KYIV OBLAST and SLOVYANSK.
    • ASSESS THE DAMAGE to CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE and PROVIDE SUPPORT to AFFECTED RESIDENTS.
    • DOCUMENT THE INCIDENTS for POTENTIAL WAR CRIMES INVESTIGATIONS.
  4. MONITOR THE UPCOMING NEGOTIATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

    • CONTINUE TO GATHER INTELLIGENCE on the NEGOTIATIONS in JEDDAH.
    • DEVELOP A CONTINGENCY PLAN for VARIOUS POTENTIAL OUTCOMES, including a CEASEFIRE that may not be ENTIRELY FAVORABLE to UKRAINE.
  5. MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation remains EXTREMELY DYNAMIC AND DANGEROUS. The LARGE-SCALE UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK on RUSSIA represents a SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION, while RUSSIAN STRIKES on UKRAINIAN INFRASTRUCTURE continue to POSE A MAJOR THREAT. The UPCOMING NEGOTIATIONS offer a POTENTIAL PATH to DE-ESCALATION, but the OUTCOME remains UNCERTAIN. RAPID RESPONSE, EFFECTIVE RESOURCE ALLOCATION, and CLOSE COORDINATION WITH ALLIES are ESSENTIAL.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

  • The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.88
  • Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 1.0
  • The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
  • The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
  • The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
  • The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
  • Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
  • Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
  • Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
  • Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
  • Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 1.0
  • Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
  • 35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
  • Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
  • Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
  • Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
  • Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
  • Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
  • Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
  • Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
  • Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
  • There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
  • Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
  • Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
  • Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
  • Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
  • The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
  • Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
  • There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
  • Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
  • There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
  • There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
  • Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
  • There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
  • Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
  • Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
  • Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.88
  • There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
  • Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
  • A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
  • A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
  • A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
  • Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
  • Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
  • Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
  • There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
  • Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
  • There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
  • Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
  • There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
  • A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
  • Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
  • Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
  • Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
  • Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
  • Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
  • Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
  • The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
  • The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
  • The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
  • Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
  • A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
  • The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
  • Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
  • US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
  • The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
  • The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
  • Intense fighting continues in the area of ​​Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
  • The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
  • The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
  • The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
  • Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
  • Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
  • The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
  • Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
  • Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
  • Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
  • On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
  • Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
  • Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
  • Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
  • Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
  • The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
  • One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
  • Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
  • Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
  • Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
  • Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
  • 40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
  • Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
  • Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
  • Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
  • Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
  • Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
  • Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
  • Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
  • Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
  • The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
  • Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
  • Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
  • There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
  • A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
  • A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
  • An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
  • Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
  • All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
  • Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
  • The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
  • Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
  • The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
  • 180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
  • 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
  • Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
  • Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
  • Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.999999999999999999999999
  • Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
  • Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
  • Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
  • Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
  • Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
  • Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
  • UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
  • Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
  • The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
  • Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
  • Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
  • Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
  • The new Canadian Prime Minister intends to take a firm stance against the US on trade issues.: 0.16
  • Trade relations between Canada and the US will remain strained in the near future.: 0.08
  • An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
  • Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
  • Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
  • A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
  • The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
  • Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.8
  • Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78
  • There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.58
  • The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
  • The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
  • A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
  • Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
  • The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
  • Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
  • There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
  • Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
  • Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.78
  • Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
  • Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
  • Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
  • Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
  • Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
  • Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
  • Russian Ka-52 pilots are employing specific attack profiles and targeting strategies.: 0.47
  • Russian helicopters are operating in contested airspace and employing electronic warfare countermeasures.: 0.47
  • The video is part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonstrate military strength and operational effectiveness.: 0.47
  • Ukraine is attempting to persuade the US to resume intelligence and military support.: 0.78
  • Ukraine is offering a partial ceasefire on long-range drone/missile strikes and Black Sea operations.: 0.72
  • Ukraine is emphasizing President Zelensky's desire for a swift end to the war.: 0.65
  • The proposed ceasefire agreement includes a halt to air attacks, naval operations, and attacks on energy/civilian infrastructure.: 0.67
  • Trump stated that the provision of intelligence data to Ukraine has "almost been restored.": 0.93
  • A Ukrainian attempt to unblock the SUDZHA-GORNAL road by attacking near the "Kolosok" camp with up to a company-sized assault group was completely destroyed, with the area remaining under Russian control.: 0.7
  • Multiple bridges near Sudzha have been destroyed:0.7
  • Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 2nd Knyazhy (destroyed by a FAB-3000 UMPK guided bomb).: 0.7
  • Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 1st Knyazhy.: 0.7
  • Bridge in Sudzha, near the destroyed Ukrainian convoy (corroborating previous reports).: 0.7
  • Bridge east of Sudzha, behind the convoy, destroyed by an FPV drone strike on explosives.: 0.7
  • Intense fighting in Tarasovka: 0.42
  • Ukrainian forces (Signum unit of the 53rd Mechanized Brigade) shot down 9 Russian reconnaissance drones overnight: 3 Orlans, 3 Zalas, and 3 Supercams.: 0.5
  • Two men claiming to have been evacuated from the Sudzha direction after being under "fascist occupation" for six months.: 0.5
  • The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk.: 0.6
  • The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk, using a drone.: 0.7
  • An "Inokhodets" drone was used to kill up to 50 enemy personnel.: 0.25
  • A fiber-optic controlled FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian soldier and ambushed an armored vehicle in the Kursk region.: 0.6
  • A Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) raid on a gas platform near the Golitsynskoye gas field in the Black Sea on the night of March 7-8.: 0.63
  • Two boats were supposedly destroyed.: 0.6
  • Ukraine is prioritizing domestic weapons production, including rockets, drones, and long-range weapons, despite the continued value of foreign weapons.: 0.7
  • Kremlin spokesman Peskov denies reports of US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia this week.: 0.7
  • Damage to the roof of a building at the "Konservsushzavod" plant in Starodub, Bryansk region, Russia, after a UAV attack was confirmed.: 0.7
  • Alawite leaders in Syria requested protection from Israel.: 0.3
  • Mothers of deceased soldiers in Udmurtia are being sent to a monastery for rehabilitation.: 0.5
  • A drone will be sent to soldiers.: 0.4
  • Quad bikes are requested for soldiers.: 0.6
  • An image of "I love combat training" has been posted.: 0.6
  • Online weapons permits are now available in the Diia app.: 0.6
  • Ukraine refuses a ceasefire on land, as this would allow Russia to recover, and instead offers one on air and naval forces.: 0.7
  • Russian forces advanced 2 km on the eastern outskirts of Krasnoarmeysk, reaching Tarasovka.: 0.4
  • The application facilitates improved control and tracking of civilian firearms, potentially impacting military strategies for maintaining public order.: 0.32
  • The application poses geolocation risks if not adequately secured, which could indirectly affect military security.: 0.24
  • The application could be used to assess and potentially mobilize armed civilians in support of military operations.: 0.16
  • The application's permit ordering system enhances bureaucratic efficiency but has minimal direct impact on military operations.: 0.08
  • Russian forces (Rubicon battle groups) are destroying Ukrainian logistics on the Sudzha-Yunakivka road.: 0.8
  • Soldiers of the 9th regiment have retrieved the body of their commander, Sergey Chebnev, who died in August: 0.7
  • 800 Russian soldiers used a gas pipeline to infiltrate Ukrainian positions near Sudzha.: 0.89
  • Russian forces (Sever Group) liberated the settlements of Kositsa, Malaya Loknya, and Cherkasskoye Porechnoye: 0.75
  • Russia claims to have destroyed more than 340 troops, two tanks, seven infantry fighting vehicles, five armoured personnel carriers, ten armoured fighting vehicles, 13 motor vehicles, three self-propelled artillery systems, eight field artillery guns, one AN/TPQ-50 counter-battery warfare station, an engineering vehicle, as well as six UAV command posts, and an

Response from 2025-03-17 08:02:48 (6h-3d old):

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 17, 2025, 08:01 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (07:31 UTC - 08:01 UTC)

  1. CLAIMED RUSSIAN CONTROL OF GOGOLEVKA (EXTREME PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION)

    • TASS (07:58 UTC): Reports that Russian forces have expelled Ukrainian units from most of Gogolevka in the Sudzha district of Kursk Oblast.
    • Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the KURSK REGION. CONTROL of GOGOLEVKA would FURTHER RESTRICT UKRAINIAN ACCESS to SUDZHA. URGENT VERIFICATION REQUIRED.
  2. CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION)

    • TASS (07:47 UTC): Reports that Russian forces have taken control of the eastern part of Volnoe Pole, located on the administrative border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions. Also claims fighting for Malye Shcherbaki in the Orekhov direction, with Russian control over the southern part of the village and the southern outskirts of neighboring Shcherbaki.
    • Сливочный каприз(07:51): States that the attacks were east of Kamenskoye, and that the Russian forces advanced 2km North.
    • Assessment: This INDICATES POTENTIAL RUSSIAN GAINS in the ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION. CONTROL of VOLNOE POLE and parts of MALYE SHCHERBAKI and SHCHERBAKI would SIGNIFY A SHIFT in the FRONT LINE. URGENT VERIFICATION REQUIRED.
  3. REPORTED UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACK NEAR POKROVSK (MEDIUM PRIORITY, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION)

    • Оперативний ЗСУ (07:49 UTC): Reports that Ukrainian border guards are defending Pokrovsk and claim that Russian forces have not captured any positions in the past month.
    • Assessment: This SUGGESTS ONGOING FIGHTING near POKROVSK. The CLAIM OF NO RUSSIAN GAINS REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
  4. REPORTED US WITHDRAWAL FROM WAR CRIMES INVESTIGATION GROUP (HIGH PRIORITY, MULTIPLE SOURCES, CONFIRMED)

    • ASTRA (07:41 UTC): Reports that the US is withdrawing from the international group investigating Russian war crimes in Ukraine, citing legal and political disagreements over the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court (ICC).
    • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (07:59): Reports the same.
    • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. US WITHDRAWAL WEAKENS INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS to HOLD RUSSIA ACCOUNTABLE for WAR CRIMES.
  5. REPORTED PLANS FOR MILITARY TRAINING FOR CHILDREN (LOW PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE, UNLIKELY)

    • МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ I Новости I Срочники (07:59 UTC): Reports that a Russian State Duma deputy has proposed starting military training for children from the fifth grade, citing the "events in Kursk Oblast."
    • Assessment: This is UNLIKELY TO HAVE IMMEDIATE MILITARY IMPACT. It REFLECTS A TREND towards INCREASED MILITARIZATION of RUSSIAN SOCIETY.
  6. OTHER DEVELOPMENTS:

    • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (07
Previous (2025-03-19 04:33:57Z)

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