Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 19, 2025, 03:02 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (02:32 UTC - 03:02 UTC)

AIRPORT RESTRICTIONS, RUSSIA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
- TASS (02:33, 02:46, 02:48 UTC): Reports temporary restrictions on the operation of airports in NIZHNY NOVGOROD, KAZAN, and NIZHNEKAMSK. Cites Rosaviatsia.
- RBK-Ukrayina (02:35 UTC): Reports similar restrictions, citing Rosaviatsia.
- ASTRA (02:48 UTC): Confirms these three airport closures.
- Assessment: This is CONFIRMED from MULTIPLE SOURCES, including the OFFICIAL RUSSIAN AGENCY (Rosaviatsia). The REASON for the RESTRICTIONS is NOT EXPLICITLY STATED, but the CONTEXT of RECENT UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS inside RUSSIA makes this the MOST LIKELY EXPLANATION. These RESTRICTIONS could be a PRECAUTIONARY MEASURE against FURTHER ATTACKS or could indicate ONGOING AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY.
CLAIMED DRONE ATTACK, KROPOTKIN, RUSSIA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
- Dnevnik Desantnika (02:34, 02:35, 02:44 UTC): Claims that Ukrainian forces attacked an oil depot in KROPOTKIN, KRASNODAR KRAI. Reports a fire at the site of falling debris, claiming at least three explosions. Dnevnik Desantnika describes itself as a group of paratroopers fighting in the SMO.
- Assessment: This CLAIM is from a RUSSIAN SOURCE and REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION. While CONSISTENT with the CONFIRMED ATTACK in KAVKAZSKAYA, it REFERS TO A DIFFERENT LOCATION. If CONFIRMED, this would represent a FURTHER ESCALATION of UKRAINIAN ATTACKS on RUSSIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE. The description of the source as paratroopers within the SMO MAY suggest it is more reliable.
AIR ACTIVITY, UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
- Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (02:46 UTC): Reports activity of Russian tactical aviation in the SOUTH-EASTERN DIRECTION. Warns of a threat of using airborne weapons for FRONTLINE REGIONS.
- Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (02:48 UTC): Reports launches of GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS by tactical aviation in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST.
- Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (02:49 UTC): Reports on RUSSIAN RECONNAISSANCE DRONE activity in SUMY DISTRICT and mentions that the air defenses are working against the drone.
- 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (02:45 UTC): Reports air raid alert in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST.
- Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY, posing a SIGNIFICANT THREAT to FRONTLINE REGIONS, specifically ZAPORIZHZHIA. The REPORT of GUIDED AERIAL BOMB LAUNCHES indicates an IMMINENT THREAT to TARGETS in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST. The mention of air defense activity in SUMY DISTRICT suggests that the UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSES ARE ACTIVELY ENGAGED.

Updated Situation Summary

EXTREME PRIORITY:
- CONFIRMED UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK on OIL DEPOT in KAVKAZSKAYA, RUSSIA. DAMAGE REPORTED, FACILITY SHUT DOWN. POTENTIAL IMPACT on RUSSIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE.
- CONTINUED, WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK ACROSS UKRAINE. DETAILED TRAJECTORIES CONFIRMED, indicating a MULTI-DIRECTIONAL THREAT. NEW THREATS to CHERNIHIV, SUMY, and POLTAVA.
- IMMINENT DRONE THREAT to DNIPRO, KHARKIV, and POLTAVA.
- INCREASED RECONNAISSANCE DRONE ACTIVITY IN DNIPROPETROVSK, ZAPORIZHZHIA, and KHARKIV OBLASTS.
- INCREASED THREAT OF AIRSTRIKES using AIR-LAUNCHED WEAPONS for FRONTLINE REGIONS, specifically DONETSK, SUMY, and DNIPROPETROVSK OBLASTS. CONFIRMED LAUNCHES of GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS.
- CONFIRMED RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK on KRASNOPIL HOSPITAL, SUMY OBLAST. POTENTIAL WAR CRIME. SECOND HOSPITAL HIT overnight.
- UPCOMING NEGOTIATIONS in JEDDAH, SAUDI ARABIA, on MARCH 23, based on AGREEMENTS REACHED between TRUMP and PUTIN. POTENTIAL FOR A BROAD CEASEFIRE. US EXPECTATION of UKRAINIAN SUPPORT.
- RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY in the SOUTH-EASTERN DIRECTION, with a threat of using AIRBORNE WEAPONS.
- LAUNCHES OF GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS by RUSSIAN TACTICAL AVIATION in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST.
HIGH PRIORITY:
- RUSSIAN ADMISSION OF SYSTEMIC PROBLEMS within the MILITARY and URGENT CALLS FOR REFORM.
- REPORTED STRIKE on an OBJECT in DNIPROPETROVSK, causing a LARGE FIRE.
- CONFIRMED DAMAGE to CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE in ZAPORIZHZHIA.
- CLAIMED DESTRUCTION OF MULTIPLE PIECES OF NATO-SUPPLIED EQUIPMENT IN THE KURSK REGION.
- CLAIMED UKRAINIAN ATROCITIES in SUDZHA, KURSK OBLAST. LIKELY RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA, but NEEDS CAREFUL EVALUATION.
- CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANTAGE and ENCIRCLEMENT of 2500 UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS. REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION.
- TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS on the OPERATION OF AIRPORTS in NIZHNY NOVGOROD, KAZAN, and NIZHNEKAMSK.
- CLAIMED DRONE ATTACK on an OIL DEPOT in KROPOTKIN, KRASNODAR KRAI. REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION.
- RUSSIAN RECONNAISSANCE DRONE activity in SUMY DISTRICT.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
- PAST UKRAINIAN SUCCESSES with HIMARS highlighted.
LOW PRIORITY:
- Damage in Buchansky district.
- Poroshenko's accusations against Zelensky.
- Air raid alerts.
- RUSSIAN LEGISLATION FOR BUDGET DEFICIT.
- VKONTAKTE NETWORK OUTAGE.
- PROPOSED REGISTRATION OF ELECTRIC SCOOTERS IN RUSSIA.
- CORRUPTION CASE involving FORMER RUSSIAN DEPUTY DEFENSE MINISTER.
- ARREST OF A COURIER FOR PHONE SCAMMERS IN KHABAROVSK.

Updated Recommendations

ADDRESS THE CONFIRMED KAVKAZSKAYA AND POTENTIAL KROPOTKIN OIL DEPOT ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS.
- DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to VERIFY the CLAIMED ATTACK in KROPOTKIN.
- ASSESS THE LONG-TERM IMPACT of both FACILITY SHUTDOWNS (if confirmed) on RUSSIAN ENERGY SUPPLY and MILITARY LOGISTICS.
- PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL RUSSIAN RETALIATION targeting UKRAINIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE.
- INVESTIGATE THE CONNECTION between the AIRPORT RESTRICTIONS and the REPORTED DRONE ATTACKS.
VERIFY THE CLAIMED UKRAINIAN ENCIRCLEMENT (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS.
COUNTER THE CONTINUED AND EXPANDING DRONE THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS.
- EXTEND AIR DEFENSE ALERT STATUS to POLTAVA, given the NEWLY REPORTED DRONE THREAT.
- DEPLOY AIR DEFENSE ASSETS to PROTECT POTENTIAL TARGETS in POLTAVA.
ADDRESS THE RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHEAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST and OTHER FRONTLINE REGIONS.
- MONITOR RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY and PROVIDE EARLY WARNING of any FURTHER AIR STRIKES.
- ENSURE AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS are READY TO ENGAGE.
- ADVISE CIVILIANS to REMAIN IN SHELTERS until the ALL-CLEAR is given.
ADDRESS THE RECONNAISSANCE DRONE IN SUMY (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT in the SUMY REGION.
- MONITOR DRONE ACTIVITY.
MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation REMAINS EXTREMELY CRITICAL. The CONFIRMED UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS on RUSSIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE and the CLAIMED UKRAINIAN ENCIRCLEMENT are IMMEDIATE CONCERNS. The IMMINENT THREAT of RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST and the reported RUSSIAN RECONNAISSANCE DRONE require that the UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSES ARE ACTIVELY ENGAGED. RAPID RESPONSE and ACCURATE INTELLIGENCE are ESSENTIAL.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.88
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 1.0
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 1.0
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.88
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.999999999999999999999999
Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
The new Canadian Prime Minister intends to take a firm stance against the US on trade issues.: 0.16
Trade relations between Canada and the US will remain strained in the near future.: 0.08
An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.8
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78
There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.58
The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.78
Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
Russian Ka-52 pilots are employing specific attack profiles and targeting strategies.: 0.47
Russian helicopters are operating in contested airspace and employing electronic warfare countermeasures.: 0.47
The video is part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonstrate military strength and operational effectiveness.: 0.47
Ukraine is attempting to persuade the US to resume intelligence and military support.: 0.78
Ukraine is offering a partial ceasefire on long-range drone/missile strikes and Black Sea operations.: 0.72
Ukraine is emphasizing President Zelensky's desire for a swift end to the war.: 0.65
The proposed ceasefire agreement includes a halt to air attacks, naval operations, and attacks on energy/civilian infrastructure.: 0.67
Trump stated that the provision of intelligence data to Ukraine has "almost been restored.": 0.93
A Ukrainian attempt to unblock the SUDZHA-GORNAL road by attacking near the "Kolosok" camp with up to a company-sized assault group was completely destroyed, with the area remaining under Russian control.: 0.7
Multiple bridges near Sudzha have been destroyed:0.7
Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 2nd Knyazhy (destroyed by a FAB-3000 UMPK guided bomb).: 0.7
Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 1st Knyazhy.: 0.7
Bridge in Sudzha, near the destroyed Ukrainian convoy (corroborating previous reports).: 0.7
Bridge east of Sudzha, behind the convoy, destroyed by an FPV drone strike on explosives.: 0.7
Intense fighting in Tarasovka: 0.42
Ukrainian forces (Signum unit of the 53rd Mechanized Brigade) shot down 9 Russian reconnaissance drones overnight: 3 Orlans, 3 Zalas, and 3 Supercams.: 0.5
Two men claiming to have been evacuated from the Sudzha direction after being under "fascist occupation" for six months.: 0.5
The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk.: 0.6
The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk, using a drone.: 0.7
An "Inokhodets" drone was used to kill up to 50 enemy personnel.: 0.25
A fiber-optic controlled FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian soldier and ambushed an armored vehicle in the Kursk region.: 0.6
A Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) raid on a gas platform near the Golitsynskoye gas field in the Black Sea on the night of March 7-8.: 0.63
Two boats were supposedly destroyed.: 0.6
Ukraine is prioritizing domestic weapons production, including rockets, drones, and long-range weapons, despite the continued value of foreign weapons.: 0.7
Kremlin spokesman Peskov denies reports of US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia this week.: 0.7
Damage to the roof of a building at the "Konservsushzavod" plant in Starodub, Bryansk region, Russia, after a UAV attack was confirmed.: 0.7
Alawite leaders in Syria requested protection from Israel.: 0.3
Mothers of deceased soldiers in Udmurtia are being sent to a monastery for rehabilitation.: 0.5
A drone will be sent to soldiers.: 0.4
Quad bikes are requested for soldiers.: 0.6
An image of "I love combat training" has been posted.: 0.6
Online weapons permits are now available in the Diia app.: 0.6
Ukraine refuses a ceasefire on land, as this would allow Russia to recover, and instead offers one on air and naval forces.: 0.7
Russian forces advanced 2 km on the eastern outskirts of Krasnoarmeysk, reaching Tarasovka.: 0.4
The application facilitates improved control and tracking of civilian firearms, potentially impacting military strategies for maintaining public order.: 0.32
The application poses geolocation risks if not adequately secured, which could indirectly affect military security.: 0.24
The application could be used to assess and potentially mobilize armed civilians in support of military operations.: 0.16
The application's permit ordering system enhances bureaucratic efficiency but has minimal direct impact on military operations.: 0.08
Russian forces (Rubicon battle groups) are destroying Ukrainian logistics on the Sudzha-Yunakivka road.: 0.8
Soldiers of the 9th regiment have retrieved the body of their commander, Sergey Chebnev, who died in August: 0.7
800 Russian soldiers used a gas pipeline to infiltrate Ukrainian positions near Sudzha.: 0.89
Russian forces (Sever Group) liberated the settlements of Kositsa, Malaya Loknya, and Cherkasskoye Porechnoye: 0.75
Russia claims to have destroyed more than 340 troops, two tanks, seven infantry fighting vehicles, five armoured personnel carriers, ten armoured fighting vehicles, 13 motor vehicles, three self-propelled artillery systems, eight field artillery guns, one AN/TPQ-50 counter-battery warfare station, an engineering vehicle, as well as six UAV command posts, and an ammunition depot. Two AFU servicemen surrendered.: 0.7
Russian forces liberated Rubanshchina and Zaoleshenka: 1.0
Four drones were intercepted over the Moscow region.: 0.9
Conflicting reports of Ukrainian shelling during the evacuation in the Kursk region: 0.6
Russian forces advanced 1.5km near Kupyansk: 0.4
Four drones were destroyed by air defenses in Obninsk: 0.8
Russian forces liberated Rubanshchina and Zaoleshenka: 1.0
UKRAINIAN FORCES* are BLOCKED in the KURSK REGION: 0.78
Russian forces struck infrastructure supporting the military of Ukraine.: 0.99999999999999
A Ukrainian MiG-29 was shot down.: 0.999999999999
Russian forces used an FPV to strike a M777 howitzer.: 0.88
Hungary is calling for peace in Europe.: 0.7
Hungary does not want Ukraine to be accepted to the EU.: 0.89
Russian forces are making advances towards Zaoleshenka.: 0.8
Another US mercenary was killed: 0.7
Three people were injured in a car accident.: 0.7
The 50-year-old driver resisted arrest.: 0.8
The car crash in Belgrade may be related to the war.: 0.1
Ukrainian forces successfully destroyed a group of three Russian soldiers using drones.: 0.9
Eleven years have passed since the occupation of Crimea.: 0.6
Crimea has become a transit zone instead of a tourist region.: 0.7
There is a lack of rule of law in Crimea.: 0.6
Over half a million Russians have relocated to Crimea.: 0.6
Ukrainian commanders have ordered their troops to kill everyone in the Kursk region.: 0.8
Russian forces (810th Marine Brigade) captured Ukrainian soldiers in Kurilovka near Sudzha.: 0.8
The captured Ukrainian soldiers were retreating.: 0.8
Many Ukrainian soldiers were wounded during the retreat.: 0.7
The Ukrainian forces were ordered to stay on their positions and watch.: 0.8
The Ukrainian forces needed a radio and 21 boxes of 20 bullets each.: 0.9999999999999
Russian forces used a complex strike to destroy two Ukrainian assault groups, vehicles, and communication assets.: 0.8
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian cargo vehicle.: 0.9
Russian forces destroyed three Ukrainian assault groups and vehicles equipped with EW systems.: 0.8
Russian drones destroyed an artillery piece and several Ukrainian vehicles.: 0.8
275 civilians were evacuated from Kursk area.: 0.8
Most of the evacuated civilians were elders.: 0.8
Volunteers are providing humanitarian aid to remaining civilians.: 0.7
Downtown Sudzha has been heavily damaged.: 0.8
A Ukrainian missile strike destroyed the Sudzha local history museum, killing one and injuring two.: 0.9
Russian forces are clearing Zaoleshenka and Goncharovka.: 0.6
Engineering units of the Russian Armed Forces have begun demining the liberated areas of the Kursk region.: 0.7
Entry to 122 settlements in the Kursk region is temporarily closed.: 0.8
Ukrainian forces left weapons and equipment during their retreat from Sudzha.: 0.8
Some Ukrainian soldiers are trying to hide by pretending to be civilians.: 0.8
A "Drone-Con" competition is

Situation Report

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 19, 2025, 03:02 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (02:32 UTC - 03:02 UTC)

Updated Situation Summary

Updated Recommendations