Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 19, 2025, 02:02 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (01:34 UTC - 02:02 UTC)

1. DRONE THREAT, POLTAVA (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (01:44 UTC): Reports a threat of enemy attack drones in POLTAVA.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED AND EXPANDING DRONE ACTIVITY. The THREAT now ENCOMPASSES POLTAVA, in ADDITION to PREVIOUSLY REPORTED AREAS.

2. POSSIBLE UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK ON OIL DEPOT, KAVKAZSKAYA, RUSSIA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ASTRA (01:45 UTC): MULTIPLE VIDEOS. Reports that an oil depot is burning in KAVKAZSKAYA, KRASNODAR KRAI, RUSSIA, after a drone attack. Mentions a nearby oil pumping station ("Kropotkinskaya") that was reportedly disabled on February 17, 2025.
   • Assessment: This is LIKELY A UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK. The LOCATION, TARGET, and TIMING are CONSISTENT with PREVIOUS UKRAINIAN LONG-RANGE STRIKES on RUSSIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE. The MULTIPLE VIDEOS INCREASE THE CREDIBILITY of the REPORT. The REFERENCE to the PREVIOUSLY DISABLED PUMPING STATION suggests a PATTERN OF TARGETING ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE in this REGION.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • CONTINUED, WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK ACROSS UKRAINE. DETAILED TRAJECTORIES CONFIRMED, indicating a MULTI-DIRECTIONAL THREAT. NEW THREATS to CHERNIHIV, SUMY, and POLTAVA.
  • IMMINENT DRONE THREAT to DNIPRO, KHARKIV, and POLTAVA.
  • INCREASED RECONNAISSANCE DRONE ACTIVITY IN DNIPROPETROVSK, ZAPORIZHZHIA, and KHARKIV OBLASTS.
  • INCREASED THREAT OF AIRSTRIKES using AIR-LAUNCHED WEAPONS for FRONTLINE REGIONS, specifically DONETSK, SUMY, and DNIPROPETROVSK OBLASTS. CONFIRMED LAUNCHES of GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS.
  • CONFIRMED RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK on KRASNOPIL HOSPITAL, SUMY OBLAST. POTENTIAL WAR CRIME. SECOND HOSPITAL HIT overnight.
  • UPCOMING NEGOTIATIONS in JEDDAH, SAUDI ARABIA, on MARCH 23, based on AGREEMENTS REACHED between TRUMP and PUTIN. POTENTIAL FOR A BROAD CEASEFIRE. US EXPECTATION of UKRAINIAN SUPPORT.
  • POSSIBLE UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK on OIL DEPOT in KAVKAZSKAYA, RUSSIA.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • RUSSIAN ADMISSION OF SYSTEMIC PROBLEMS within the MILITARY and URGENT CALLS FOR REFORM.
  • REPORTED STRIKE on an OBJECT in DNIPROPETROVSK, causing a LARGE FIRE.
  • CONFIRMED DAMAGE to CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE in ZAPORIZHZHIA.
  • CLAIMED DESTRUCTION OF MULTIPLE PIECES OF NATO-SUPPLIED EQUIPMENT IN THE KURSK REGION.
  • CLAIMED UKRAINIAN ATROCITIES in SUDZHA, KURSK OBLAST. LIKELY RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA, but NEEDS CAREFUL EVALUATION.

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

• PAST UKRAINIAN SUCCESSES with HIMARS highlighted. * TRUMP'S CLAIM of RUSSIAN ADVANTAGE due to ENCIRCLED UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS. UNVERIFIED AND LIKELY EXAGGERATED.

• LOW PRIORITY:

  • Damage in Buchansky district.
  • Poroshenko's accusations against Zelensky.
  • Air raid alerts.
  • RUSSIAN LEGISLATION FOR BUDGET DEFICIT.
  • VKONTAKTE NETWORK OUTAGE.
  • PROPOSED REGISTRATION OF ELECTRIC SCOOTERS IN RUSSIA.
  • CORRUPTION CASE involving FORMER RUSSIAN DEPUTY DEFENSE MINISTER.
  • ARREST OF A COURIER FOR PHONE SCAMMERS IN KHABAROVSK.

Updated Recommendations

1. COUNTER THE CONTINUED AND EXPANDING DRONE THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS.
   • EXTEND AIR DEFENSE ALERT STATUS to POLTAVA, given the NEWLY REPORTED DRONE THREAT.
   • DEPLOY AIR DEFENSE ASSETS to PROTECT POTENTIAL TARGETS in POLTAVA.

2. CONFIRM AND ASSESS THE KAVKAZSKAYA OIL DEPOT ATTACK (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • VERIFY THE REPORT of the ATTACK using ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS, including IMAGERY INTELLIGENCE and SIGNAL INTELLIGENCE.
   • ASSESS THE EXTENT OF THE DAMAGE to the OIL DEPOT and the IMPACT ON RUSSIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE.
   • DETERMINE IF THIS ATTACK VIOLATES any POTENTIAL CEASEFIRE AGREEMENTS related to ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE.
   • PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL RUSSIAN RETALIATION.

3. MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation REMAINS EXTREMELY CRITICAL. The CONTINUED AND EXPANDING DRONE THREAT and the POSSIBLE UKRAINIAN ATTACK on RUSSIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE are the MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERNS. RAPID RESPONSE and ACCURATE INTELLIGENCE are ESSENTIAL.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

• Artillery or missile strikes are occurring in a conflict zone in Ukraine.: 0.56
• : 0.2
• The strikes are targeting military assets and infrastructure.: 0.16
• Ongoing military operations are influencing strategic decisions regarding force deployment and asset allocation.: 0.08
• Ukrainian air defense systems are actively engaging an enemy reconnaissance UAV in the Zaporizhzhia region.: 0.6464
• : 0.2
• There is an increased risk of incoming missile or artillery strikes following the UAV activity, prompting the air raid alert.: 0.16
• The reconnaissance UAV is attempting to gather intelligence on Ukrainian troop positions or infrastructure in the Zaporizhzhia region.: 0.08
• The reconnaissance UAV is attempting to gather intelligence on Ukrainian troop positions or infrastructure in the Dnipropetrovsk region.: 0.16
• The reconnaissance UAV is attempting to gather intelligence on Ukrainian troop positions or infrastructure in the Kharkiv region.: 0.16
• Russian forces successfully destroyed multiple pieces of NATO-supplied military equipment in the Kursk region.: 0.4
• The destroyed equipment includes British Challenger and FV432 tanks, American Stryker, MaxxPro MRAP, and HMMWV vehicles, and Ukrainian BTR-4E APCs.: 0.2
• The 810th Separate Marine Brigade is responsible for the destruction of the NATO equipment.: 0.16
• The destruction of the NATO equipment represents a significant setback for Ukrainian forces.: 0.08
• The destroyed equipment includes a white phosphorus smoke grenade/munition component.: 0.8
• Russian military has released images supporting their claim of destroying NATO equipment.: 0.8
• Russian forces are using guided aerial bombs on targets in Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Russian command posts are vulnerable to HIMARS strikes, necessitating improved defensive measures.: 0.32
• Acknowledgment of HIMARS-related casualties may negatively impact Russian troop morale and public support.: 0.24
• Ukrainian forces possess effective intelligence capabilities for targeting high-value Russian assets.: 0.16
• The conflict is ongoing, with both sides actively engaging in offensive and defensive operations.: 0.08
• The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.88
• Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
• The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
• The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
• The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
• Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
• Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
• Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
• Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
• 35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
• Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
• Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
• Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
• Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
• Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
• Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
• There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
• Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
• Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
• Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
• The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
• Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
• There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
• There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
• There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
• Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
• There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
• Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
• Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
• Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.88
• There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
• A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
• A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
• A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
• Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
• Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
• Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
• There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
• Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
• There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
• Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
• There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
• A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
• Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
• Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
• Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
• Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
• Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
• Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
• The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
• The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
• The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
• Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
• A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
• The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
• US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
• The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
• The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
• Intense fighting continues in the area of ​​Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
• The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
• The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
• The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
• Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
• Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
• The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
• Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
• Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
• Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
• On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
• Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
• Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
• Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
• Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
• The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
• One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
• Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
• Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
• Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
• 40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
• Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
• Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
• Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
• Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
• Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
• Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
• Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
• There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
• A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
• A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
• An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
• Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
• All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
• The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
• Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
• The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
• 180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
• 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
• Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
• Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
• Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 1.0
• Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
• Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
• Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
• Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
• Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
• Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
• UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
• Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
• The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
• Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
• Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
• Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
• Qatar supports initiatives to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, according to the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs.: 0.9
• The Ukrainian General Staff has confirmed the loss of Sudzha, now under Russian control.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Russian Drone operators struck a temporary deployment point in Razliv.: 0.899999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Enemy tactical aviation activity in the north, with threat of airborne weapons.: 0.8
• Hull Daily Mail claimed 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in the Kursk direction.: 0.1
• A Leopard tank was destroyed by Russian drone operators in the south-donetsk direction.: 0.7
• A MaxxPro armored vehicle was destroyed by Russian drone operators in the south-donetsk direction.: 0.7
• A Russian "Vandal" drone destroyed a Ukrainian "wooden" armored vehicle.: 0.6
• Russian forces advanced 2 km on the eastern outskirts of Krasnoarmeysk, reaching Tarasovka.: 0.4
• Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk region.: 0.4
• The Russian Air Force used a FAB-3000 bomb to destroy a Ukrainian fortified position in the Kursk direction.: 0.8
• A Russian infantry attack towards Veseloe.: 0.65
• Russian advances on the Burlatskoe-Skudnoe line, extending control by up to 2.5 km.: 0.8
• In the Kharkiv Direction, units of the "North" group of troops inflicted damage on formations of the assault battalion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the border detachment of the Ukrainian Border Guard Service in the areas of the settlements of Perovskoe and Kazachya Lopan in the Kharkiv region.: 0.7
• The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 70 servicemen, six vehicles, four artillery pieces, and an electronic warfare station in the Kharkiv Direction.: 0.6
• Units of the "South" group of troops have occupied more advantageous lines and positions.: 0.6
• The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 305 servicemen, a tank, an armored fighting vehicle, four vehicles, seven field artillery pieces, including four Western-made, and a Croatian-made RAK-SA-12 multiple rocket launcher system. A material warehouse was destroyed.: 0.5
• Units of the "Center" group of troops continued to advance deep into the enemy's defense.: 0.6
• The enemy lost up to 450 servicemen, five armored fighting vehicles, eight pickup trucks, five artillery pieces, and an electronic warfare station in the Center Direction.: 0.5
• Units of the "East" group of troops have improved their position along the front line.: 0.5
• The Ukrainian Armed Forces losses amounted to over 150 servicemen, two armored fighting vehicles, five vehicles, and three field artillery pieces in the East Direction.: 0.4
• Units of the "Dnipro" group of troops inflicted damage on the manpower and equipment of two mechanized, mountain assault brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Up to 90 servicemen, five vehicles, two field artillery pieces, and three electronic warfare stations were destroyed.: 0.5
• Air defense systems shot down four US-made JDAM guided bombs and 141 fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles.: 0.6
• Since the beginning of the special military operation, 658 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 46917 unmanned aerial vehicles, 601 anti-aircraft missile systems, 22297 tanks and other armored fighting vehicles, 1529 multiple launch rocket systems, 22620 field artillery and mortars, and 32940 special military vehicles have been destroyed.: 0.4