Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 18, 2025, 11:32 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (11:02 UTC - 11:32 UTC)

PROPAGANDA AND DISINFORMATION (LOW/MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
- БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (11:05 UTC): Exposes an alleged RT propaganda story claiming Ukrainian forces stole a Maine Coon cat worth $1000 from a resident of KURILOVKA, KURSK OBLAST.
- Assessment: A clear example of a disinformation effort, attempting to portray Ukrainian forces as looters and criminals. The deliberate focus on a valuable pet is intended to resonate emotionally with the audience.
- Alex Parker Returns (11:05 UTC): Posts an advertisement.
- Assessment: Advertisement unrelated to military operations.
- Два майора (10:54 UTC): A Russian telegram channel that states oligarchs will strike the "Supreme Commander" in the back.
- Assessment: This channel is spreading a conspiracy and may not be a reliable source.
- WarGonzo (11:10 UTC): Claims Ukrainian forces are using cemeteries and churches as cover for artillery positions.
- Assessment: Potential disinformation; requires verification. This kind of claim is frequently used to justify attacks on civilian infrastructure.
ALLEGED RUSSIAN ADVANCES, OSKOL RIVER (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
- Z комитет + карта СВО (11:08 UTC): Claims Russian forces are continuing to expand their bridgehead near the OSKOL RIVER, specifically mentioning KRASNOE PERVOE, KAMENKA, and PETROVKA.
- Assessment: REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION. If confirmed, this would represent a SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCE and a potential THREAT to UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE LINES in the KUPIANSK DIRECTION. The report includes a map, analysis of which is presented separately.
AIR/MISSILE ALERTS AND DRONE ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):
- Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (11:07 UTC): Missile alert for SUMY OBLAST; reports active enemy UAVs in the region, with air defense engaging.
- Assessment: Confirms ongoing Russian air/missile and drone activity targeting SUMY OBLAST. This is a HIGH PRIORITY THREAT requiring continued monitoring and air defense engagement.
- 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (11:30 UTC): Air raid alert for ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST.
- Assessment: Confirms air threat in the ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST.
ALLEGED UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWAL, SHCHERBAKY (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
- Дневник Десантника (11:10 UTC): Corroborates earlier reports, stating that fighting is STILL ONGOING for SHCHERBAKY and MALI SHCHERBAKY, contradicting earlier claims of a complete Russian capture.
- Assessment: This FURTHER MUDDIES THE WATER regarding the situation in SHCHERBAKY. It confirms that FIGHTING IS ONGOING, but CONTRADICTS the INITIAL CLAIM of a COMPLETE RUSSIAN CAPTURE. URGENT CLARIFICATION REMAINS A TOP PRIORITY.
ALLEGED RUSSIAN AMBUSH, NADIYA, LUHANSK OBLAST (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
- Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (11:12 UTC): Claims Russian forces ("Zapad" Group) ambushed a Ukrainian troop rotation near NADIYA, LUHANSK OBLAST, using drones to track and target them. VIDEO.
- Assessment: REQUIRES VERIFICATION. If confirmed, this would indicate continued RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE PRESSURE in the LUHANSK REGION. The USE OF DRONES for TARGETING AND RECONNAISSANCE is CONFIRMED BY THE VIDEO. Analysis of the video is presented separately.
CLAIMED DESTRUCTION OF UKRAINIAN COLUMN, SUDZHA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
- Colonelcassad (11:12 UTC): Claims the destruction of a Ukrainian armored column on the SUDZHA-GUEVO-GORNAL ROAD, a KEY SUPPLY ROUTE for Ukrainian forces in KURSK OBLAST. VIDEO. Claims this was achieved by FPV DRONE STRIKES by the "Rubicon" unit.
- Assessment: REQUIRES VERIFICATION. If confirmed, this would represent a SIGNIFICANT BLOW to UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS in the KURSK REGION. The video, analyzed separately, appears to show destroyed vehicles.
RUSSIAN EVACUATION OF CIVILIANS, KONSTANTINOPOL (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
- ТАСС (11:22, 11:26 UTC): Reports Russian forces established a corridor for the evacuation of civilians from KONSTANTINOPOL, DONETSK OBLAST, and that 10 civilians, including 4 children, have been evacuated.
- Colonelcassad (11:31 UTC): Shows a video with interviews from the evacuated civilians.
- Assessment: Corroborates earlier information about Russian operations in KONSTANTINOPOL. This suggests RUSSIAN CONTROL over at least PART OF THE SETTLEMENT, or that the front line has shifted sufficiently to allow evacuation. The civilian interviews, as always, should be treated with caution due to potential coercion or propaganda.
UKRAINIAN RECRUITMENT VIDEO (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
- Оперативний ЗСУ (11:27 UTC): Recruitment video for the 135th Territorial Defense Battalion.
- Assessment: Indicates ongoing efforts to bolster Ukrainian forces. Analysis of the video is presented separately.
CLAIMED SHOOTING, BILA TSERKVA (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
- РБК-Україна (11:30 UTC): Reports a shooting at a shopping mall in BILA TSERKVA, with one person injured.
- Assessment: This is likely a criminal incident unrelated to military operations, though confirmation is required.
ALLEGED DRONE STRIKES (MEDIUM/HIGH PRIORITY, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
- Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (11:30 UTC): Reports high-speed targets via SUMY OBLAST.
- Assessment: Confirms ongoing threat.
- Підрозділ Shadow (11:22): Shows footage of a drone operation, bombing enemy combatants.

Assessment: Confirms Ukrainian forces are using drones.

OTHER:
- ASTRA (11:05 UTC): Reports on a collection drive for employees.

Assessment: Not related to the situation.
ТАСС (11:13): Reports that the government will come up with a solution on abandoned animals.
Assessment: Not related to the situation.
МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ I Новости I Срочники (11:13): Reports that 5 orphan graduates died at war.
Assessment: Not directly related to the situation.
WarGonzo (11:14): Reports on a captured drone.
Assessment: Might indicate technological advancement. Needs further investigation.
ТАСС (11:15): Reports that Russia is working to collaborate with Musk.
Assessment: Not directly related to the situation.
Рыбарь (11:16): Reports on Belarusian siloviks capturing a comedian.
Assessment: Not related to the situation.
Сливочный каприз (11:17): Reports on fighting near VERKHNEKAMENSKOYE and STEPOVOYE.
Assessment: Must investigate to verify Russian advances.
Kotsnews (11:18): Reports on a man being rewarded for shooting a drone.
Assessment: Shows that the Russian government is rewarding defense efforts.
ТАСС (11:20): Reports on the man who shot down the drone, being rewarded by the government.
Assessment: Shows that the Russian government is rewarding defense efforts.

Updated Situation Summary

EXTREME PRIORITY:
- CONFLICTING REPORTS regarding the SITUATION IN SHCHERBAKY. URGENT CLARIFICATION NEEDED. Fighting is CONFIRMED to be ONGOING.
- POTENTIAL RUSSIAN ADVANCE near the OSKOL RIVER. URGENT VERIFICATION NEEDED.
HIGH PRIORITY:
CONTINUED FIGHTING near the BELGOROD BORDER, with REPORTS OF REPELLED UKRAINIAN ATTACKS. POSSIBLE UKRAINIAN INCURSION ATTEMPT.
AIR/MISSILE AND DRONE ALERTS in SUMY and ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLASTS.
RUSSIAN CONTROL of AT LEAST PART OF KONSTANTINOPOL is LIKELY, with CIVILIAN EVACUATIONS UNDERWAY.
- UKRAINIAN FORCES reportedly withdrawing in order to save the lives of soldiers.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
- ALLEGED RUSSIAN AMBUSH near NADIYA.
- CLAIMED DESTRUCTION OF UKRAINIAN COLUMN near SUDZHA.
- WIDESPREAD FIGHTING across MULTIPLE FRONTS.
CONFIRMED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE in SUDZHA. * ONGOING PROPAGANDA AND INFORMATION WARFARE EFFORTS from BOTH SIDES.
UKRAINIAN EFFORTS to INCREASE DOMESTIC WEAPONS PRODUCTION.
POSSIBLE SABOTAGE inside of RUSSIA.

Updated Recommendations

CLARIFY THE SITUATION IN SHCHERBAKY AND NEAR THE OSKOL RIVER (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to DETERMINE THE STATUS of SHCHERBAKY, MALI SHCHERBAKY, KRASNOE PERVOE, KAMENKA, and PETROVKA. PRIORITIZE IMAGERY INTELLIGENCE.
- CROSS-REFERENCE INFORMATION from MULTIPLE SOURCES to IDENTIFY THE MOST RELIABLE REPORT.
- ASSESS THE IMPLICATIONS of RUSSIAN ADVANCES in BOTH LOCATIONS on DEFENSIVE POSITIONS.
RESPOND TO AIR/MISSILE AND DRONE THREATS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
- MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT in SUMY and ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLASTS.
- CONTINUE AIR DEFENSE ENGAGEMENTS against INCOMING THREATS.
- GATHER INTELLIGENCE on LAUNCH LOCATIONS and TARGETING.
VERIFY REPORTS OF RUSSIAN ADVANCES AND AMBUSHES (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- DEPLOY INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to VERIFY the REPORTED RUSSIAN AMBUSH near NADIYA.
INVESTIGATE THE CHEBOKSARY FIRE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- GATHER INTELLIGENCE to DETERMINE THE CAUSE of the FIRE.
- ASSESS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT on RUSSIAN INDUSTRIAL CAPACITY, particularly if the plant produces materials relevant to the war effort.
ASSESS UKRAINIAN WEAPONS PRODUCTION CLAIMS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
- GATHER INTELLIGENCE to VERIFY the REPORTED INCREASE in UKRAINIAN WEAPONS PRODUCTION.
- ANALYZE THE POTENTIAL IMPACT on UKRAINIAN MILITARY CAPABILITIES and DEPENDENCE ON FOREIGN AID.
COUNTER PROPAGANDA AND DISINFORMATION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
- ACTIVELY MONITOR and COUNTER FALSE OR MISLEADING INFORMATION spread by BOTH SIDES.
- PROVIDE ACCURATE AND TIMELY INFORMATION to COMMANDERS and the PUBLIC.
MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation remains HIGHLY DYNAMIC AND UNCERTAIN. CONFLICTING REPORTS and ALLEGED RUSSIAN ADVANCES require IMMEDIATE CLARIFICATION. CONTINUED FIGHTING and AIR/MISSILE THREATS demand CONSTANT VIGILANCE.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

Vostok group is actively engaged in evacuating civilians from conflict zones.: 0.8998
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.88
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.68
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.999999999999999999999999
Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
The new Canadian Prime Minister intends to take a firm stance against the US on trade issues.: 0.16
Trade relations between Canada and the US will remain strained in the near future.: 0.08
An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.8
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78
There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.58
The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.78
Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
Russian Ka-52 pilots are employing specific attack profiles and targeting strategies.: 0.47
Russian helicopters are operating in contested airspace and employing electronic warfare countermeasures.: 0.47
The video is part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonstrate military strength and operational effectiveness.: 0.47
Ukraine is attempting to persuade the US to resume intelligence and military support.: 0.78
Ukraine is offering a partial ceasefire on long-range drone/missile strikes and Black Sea operations.: 0.72
Ukraine is emphasizing President Zelensky's desire for a swift end to the war.: 0.65
The proposed ceasefire agreement includes a halt to air attacks, naval operations, and attacks on energy/civilian infrastructure.: 0.67
Trump stated that the provision of intelligence data to Ukraine has "almost been restored.": 0.82
A Ukrainian attempt to unblock the SUDZHA-GORNAL road by attacking near the "Kolosok" camp with up to a company-sized assault group was completely destroyed, with the area remaining under Russian control.: 0.7
Multiple bridges near Sudzha have been destroyed:0.7
Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 2nd Knyazhy (destroyed by a FAB-3000 UMPK guided bomb).: 0.7
Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 1st Knyazhy.: 0.7
Bridge in Sudzha, near the destroyed Ukrainian convoy (corroborating previous reports).: 0.7
Bridge east of Sudzha, behind the convoy, destroyed by an FPV drone strike on explosives.: 0.7
Intense fighting in Tarasovka: 0.42
Ukrainian forces (Signum unit of the 53rd Mechanized Brigade) shot down 9 Russian reconnaissance drones overnight: 3 Orlans, 3 Zalas, and 3 Supercams.: 0.5
Two men claiming to have been evacuated from the Sudzha direction after being under "fascist occupation" for six months.: 0.5
The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk.: 0.6
The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk, using a drone.: 0.7
An "Inokhodets" drone was used to kill up to 50 enemy personnel.: 0.25
A fiber-optic controlled FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian soldier and ambushed an armored vehicle in the Kursk region.: 0.6
A Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) raid on a gas platform near the Golitsynskoye gas field in the Black Sea on the night of March 7-8.: 0.63
Two boats were supposedly destroyed.: 0.6
Ukraine is prioritizing domestic weapons production, including rockets, drones, and long-range weapons, despite the continued value of foreign weapons.: 0.7
Kremlin spokesman Peskov denies reports of US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia this week.: 0.7
Damage to the roof of a building at the "Konservsushzavod" plant in Starodub, Bryansk region, Russia, after a UAV attack was confirmed.: 0.7
Alawite leaders in Syria requested protection from Israel.: 0.3
Mothers of deceased soldiers in Udmurtia are being sent to a monastery for rehabilitation.: 0.5
A drone will be sent to soldiers.: 0.4
Quad bikes are requested for soldiers.: 0.6
An image of "I love combat training" has been posted.: 0.6
Online weapons permits are now available in the Diia app.: 0.6
Ukraine refuses a ceasefire on land, as this would allow Russia to recover, and instead offers one on air and naval forces.: 0.7
Russian forces advanced 2 km on the eastern outskirts of Krasnoarmeysk, reaching Tarasovka.: 0.4
The application facilitates improved control and tracking of civilian firearms, potentially impacting military strategies for maintaining public order.: 0.32
The application poses geolocation risks if not adequately secured, which could indirectly affect military security.: 0.24
The application could be used to assess and potentially mobilize armed civilians in support of military operations.: 0.16
The application's permit ordering system enhances bureaucratic efficiency but has minimal direct impact on military operations.: 0.08
Russian forces (Rubicon battle groups) are destroying Ukrainian logistics on the Sudzha-Yunakivka road.: 0.8
Soldiers of the 9th regiment have retrieved the body of their commander, Sergey Chebnev, who died in August: 0.7
800 Russian soldiers used a gas pipeline to infiltrate Ukrainian positions near Sudzha.: 0.89
Russian forces (Sever Group) liberated the settlements of Kositsa, Malaya Loknya, and Cherkasskoye Porechnoye: 0.75
Russia claims to have destroyed more than 340 troops, two tanks, seven infantry fighting vehicles, five armoured personnel carriers, ten armoured fighting vehicles, 13 motor vehicles, three self-propelled artillery systems, eight field artillery guns, one AN/TPQ-50 counter-battery warfare station, an engineering vehicle, as well as six UAV command posts, and an ammunition depot. Two AFU servicemen surrendered.: 0.7
UKRAINIAN SPECIAL FORCES OPERATIONS IN KHARKIV REGION: 0.67
Ukrainian forces counterattacked in Shevchenko: 0.55
Russia is attempting to destroy Ukrainian UAV control centers in the Zaporizhzhia region.: 0.55
Russian forces claim Malaya Loknya is completely under their control.: 0.98
Reports of captured Ukrainian soldiers in the area of CHERKASSKOE PORECHNOE.: 0.99999999999999
4 attacks were made near VOVCHANSK.: 0.9
The enemy is attempting to advance in BILOHORIVKA, FEDORIVKA and VERKHNOKAMYANSKE.: 0.9
89 enemy casualties were sustained (42 deaths) near VOVCHANSK.: 0.9
Russian forces liberated LEBEDEVKA.: 0.9
Russian infantry attack with sapper-assault group undermined a Ukrainian position in the center of LEBEDEVKA.: 0.9
There was a Russian advance of over 600 meters in an easterly direction in LEBEDEVKA.: 0.8
Russian airstrikes took place in MALA VOVCHA.: 0.9
Clashes took place in the following areas: LOZOVA, PETROPAVLIVKA, *

Situation Report

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 18, 2025, 11:32 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (11:02 UTC - 11:32 UTC)

Updated Situation Summary

Updated Recommendations

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs: