Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 17, 2025, 11:31 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (11:01 UTC - 11:31 UTC)

BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
- Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (10:38 UTC): Issued a warning about a "high-speed target" heading towards the border area of Sumy Oblast. An all-clear was issued for all regions except Sumy Oblast at 10:12 UTC, and an all-clear was given for Sumy Oblast (10:47 UTC).
- Assessment: This reinforces the earlier report of a BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT (10:02 UTC). The "high-speed target" designation is CONSISTENT WITH A BALLISTIC MISSILE. The focus on SUMY OBLAST is NOTEWORTHY, given the RECENT REPORTS OF INTENSIFIED RUSSIAN ACTIVITY in the AREA. This is an EXTREME PRIORITY. The lifting of the alert suggests the immediate threat has passed, BUT VIGILANCE MUST BE MAINTAINED.
RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN SUMY OBLAST (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
- ТАСС (10:18 UTC): Reports, citing Apty Alaudinov (a Chechen military commander), that Russian units are ADVANCING IN SUMY OBLAST.
- Assessment: This CONFIRMS PREVIOUS REPORTS and INCREASES THE BELIEF in a RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE in SUMY OBLAST. This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT, potentially opening a NEW FRONT in the CONFLICT. This INCREASES THE PRESSURE on UKRAINIAN FORCES, forcing them to DIVERT RESOURCES to a NEW AREA.
CLAIMED DESTRUCTION OF US ABRAMS TANK (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, VIDEO EVIDENCE):
- Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (10:30 UTC): Reports, WITH VIDEO, that Russian forces ("🅾️тважные" group) DESTROYED ANOTHER US ABRAMS TANK in the POKROVSK DIRECTION using an FPV DRONE. Claims operators also KILLED "ABOUT TWO DOZEN" MILITANTS.
- Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT CLAIM given the HIGH-VALUE TARGET of the ABRAMS TANK. THE VIDEO PROVIDES SOME EVIDENCE, but INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION is STILL NEEDED. The VIDEO shows a DRONE STRIKE on a TANK, but the MODEL IS DIFFICULT TO CONFIRM with CERTAINTY. The CLAIM OF KILLING "TWO DOZEN" MILITANTS is LIKELY EXAGGERATED. This is a HIGH PRIORITY for VERIFICATION.
REPORTED UKRAINIAN INCURSIONS INTO SUMY OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
- ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (10:30 UTC): Reports, citing Andrii Demchenko (spokesperson for the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine), that Russian forces are ATTEMPTING TO INFILTRATE UKRAINIAN TERRITORY through SUMY OBLAST using ASSAULT GROUPS and SABOTAGE AND RECONNAISSANCE GROUPS (DRGs). Claims Ukrainian forces are DESTROYING THESE GROUPS near NOVENKE, ZHURAVKA, and BASIVKA.
- Assessment: This DIRECTLY CONTRADICTS the RUSSIAN NARRATIVE of ADVANCES IN SUMY OBLAST. This report suggests UKRAINIAN FORCES are ACTIVELY RESISTING RUSSIAN INCURSIONS. The MENTION OF DRGs suggests a FOCUS ON ASYMMETRIC WARFARE and ATTEMPTS TO DISRUPT UKRAINIAN DEFENSES. This is a HIGH PRIORITY for MONITORING.
REPORTED DEPLOYMENT OF UKRAINIAN TROOPS TO OTHER COUNTRIES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

РБК-Україна (10:13 UTC): Reports, citing Andriy Sybiha, Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, stating that the issue of deploying a military contingent to Ukraine is being discussed.
- Assessment: This implies that the deployment of foreign troops to Ukraine has already begun.

PLANNED PUTIN-TRUMP PHONE CALL (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
- ТАСС (10:20 UTC): Reports that a phone call between Putin and Trump is PLANNED FOR MARCH 18TH. РБК-Україна (10:24) CONFIRMS this, stating the call is being prepared for Tuesday.
- Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, given TRUMP'S PAST STATEMENTS on the CONFLICT. The TOPIC OF DISCUSSION is UNCLEAR, but it will LIKELY INVOLVE THE WAR IN UKRAINE. This could have MAJOR IMPLICATIONS for the CONFLICT and INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS.
GERMAN MILITARY AID TO UKRAINE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
- Оперативний ЗСУ (10:38 UTC): Reports that Germany will provide an additional €3 billion in military aid to Ukraine in 2025, bringing the total to €7 billion.
- Assessment: This demonstrates CONTINUED GERMAN SUPPORT for UKRAINE.
CLAIMED SUCCESSFUL HIMARS STRIKE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, VIDEO):

ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (10:24 UTC): Reports with video, claiming a HIMARS strike hit a workshop used by Russian forces of the 155th Marine Brigade.
Assessment: The video provides some evidence, but independent confirmation is needed.

UKRAINIAN LAW ON TROOP DEPLOYMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (10:28 UTC): Reports Zelenskiy signed a law that allows Ukrainian forces to be sent to other countries for purposes of national security.
Assessment: The law provides some clarity to the reports of deployment.

EU FINANCIAL AID (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (10:20 UTC): Reports that Ukraine will receive 3.5 billion euros in aid.
Assessment: This implies ongoing international support for the Ukrainian state.

RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF IMPROVED POSITIONS IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
- НгП раZVедка (11:05 UTC): Reports Russian forces significantly improved their positions in MALI SHCHERBAKY, with Ukrainian forces holding only the northern outskirts. Also claims Ukrainian forces were pushed out of STEPOVE, with significant losses, including the 131st Separate Reconnaissance Battalion.
- Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT CLAIM indicating POTENTIAL RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION. The MENTION OF SPECIFIC SETTLEMENTS and UKRAINIAN UNITS adds CREDIBILITY, but INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION is ESSENTIAL. This DIRECTLY CONTRADICTS previous Ukrainian reports on the area. This is a HIGH PRIORITY for VERIFICATION AND MONITORING.
REPORT OF RUSSIAN BUFFER ZONE AFTER KURSK REGION "LIBERATION" (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
- ТАСС (11:13 UTC): Reports, citing Apty Alaudinov, that Russian forces will be able to create a buffer zone after the "liberation" of Kursk Oblast.
- Assessment: This is a STATEMENT OF INTENT regarding FUTURE RUSSIAN OPERATIONS. It suggests a LONG-TERM STRATEGY of PUSHING UKRAINIAN FORCES further BACK FROM THE BORDER. The IMPLICATION is that RUSSIA INTENDS TO CONTINUE OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS in the AREA.
CLAIM OF UKRAINIAN "PLANNED REDEPLOYMENT" IN KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (11:13 UTC), reporting on a statement from Ukrainian Defense Minister Umerov, claims that Ukrainian forces conducted a "planned redeployment to more advantageous defensive lines" in the Kursk region. Umerov reportedly dismissed reports of Ukrainian encirclement as "propaganda."
Assessment: This is a DIRECT COUNTER-NARRATIVE to RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF ADVANCES AND ENCIRCLEMENT in the KURSK REGION. It suggests a SPIN ON A POTENTIAL RETREAT, framing it as a STRATEGIC MANEUVER. This INCREASES THE UNCERTAINTY about the TRUE SITUATION in the AREA and HIGHLIGHTS THE INFORMATION WARFARE ASPECT of the CONFLICT. INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION is CRITICAL.

REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE TO STEPNOYE IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
- Kotsnews (11:14 UTC): Reports Russian forces liberated Stepnoye in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, citing the Russian Ministry of Defense.
- Assessment: THIS CONTRADICTS THE PREVIOUS REPORT. The CLAIM OF LIBERATION is HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT. INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION is CRUCIAL.

Updated Situation Summary

EXTREME PRIORITY:
- **BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT in SUMY OBLAST. REQUIRES CONTINUOUS MONITORING.
- CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE in SUMY OBLAST, potentially opening a NEW FRONT.
**CLAIMED DESTRUCTION of a US ABRAMS TANK in the POKROVSK DIRECTION.
HIGH PRIORITY:
- UKRAINIAN CASUALTIES IN THE IZIUM REGION.
- CONTINUED FIGHTING reported in GUEVO, BASOVKA, and towards ZHURAVKA-BELOVODY.
- **CONFLICTING REPORTS of RUSSIAN and UKRAINIAN ACTIVITY in SUMY OBLAST.
- REPORTED DEPLOYMENT OF UKRAINIAN TROOPS.
- PLANNED PUTIN-TRUMP PHONE CALL.
RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF IMPROVED POSITIONS and SETTLEMENT CAPTURES in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (MALI SHCHERBAKY, STEPOVE).
CONFLICTING REPORTS of RUSSIAN ADVANCES and UKRAINIAN "PLANNED REDEPLOYMENT" in the KURSK REGION.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
- AIR RAID ALERT LIFTED in Ukraine.
- CONTINUED GERMAN MILITARY AID to UKRAINE.
- CLAIMED SUCCESSFUL HIMARS STRIKE.
UKRAINIAN LAW on troop deployment.
EU FINANCIAL AID.
REPORTED RUSSIAN INTENT to CREATE A BUFFER ZONE after "liberating" KURSK OBLAST.

Updated Recommendations

ADDRESS THE BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT IN SUMY OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- MAINTAIN MAXIMUM ALERT STATUS for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS in SUMY OBLAST, despite the all-clear.
- **GATHER INTELLIGENCE to DETERMINE THE LAUNCH POINT and INTENDED TARGETS of the MISSILES.
ADDRESS THE RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN SUMY OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- REINFORCE UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE POSITIONS in SUMY OBLAST to PREVENT FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCES.
- CONDUCT RECONNAISSANCE to ASSESS RUSSIAN STRENGTH AND INTENTIONS in the AREA.
- PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVES.
VERIFY THE CLAIMED DESTRUCTION OF A US ABRAMS TANK IN THE POKROVSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to CONFIRM the STRIKES and ASSESS THE DAMAGE.
- ASSESS THE IMPACT on UKRAINIAN ARMORED CAPABILITIES.
ADDRESS THE SITUATION IN SUMY OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
- MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY for FURTHER RUSSIAN INCURSIONS.
- REINFORCE BORDER DEFENSES.
- INCREASE RECONNAISSANCE EFFORTS to IDENTIFY and TRACK RUSSIAN DRGs.
MONITOR THE PLANNED PUTIN-TRUMP PHONE CALL (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
- GATHER INTELLIGENCE on the TOPICS OF DISCUSSION.
- ASSESS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT on the CONFLICT.
VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIMS IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to CONFIRM or REFUTE RUSSIAN CLAIMS of ADVANCES in MALI SHCHERBAKY and STEPOVE.
- ASSESS UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE POSITIONS and CAPABILITIES in the AREA.
CLARIFY THE SITUATION IN THE KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- GATHER INTELLIGENCE to DETERMINE THE TRUE EXTENT of RUSSIAN and UKRAINIAN ACTIVITY in the KURSK REGION.
- ASSESS WHETHER UKRAINIAN FORCES are CONDUCTING A STRATEGIC WITHDRAWAL or FACING SIGNIFICANT SETBACKS.
ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES). All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND HIGHLY DYNAMIC. The CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN SUMY OBLAST and the potential OPENING OF A NEW FRONT are MAJOR CONCERNS. The CONFLICTING REPORTS from BOTH THE KURSK AND ZAPORIZHZHIA REGIONS HIGHLIGHT THE FOG OF WAR and the NEED FOR URGENT, RELIABLE INTELLIGENCE. The POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCES and the CREATION OF A BUFFER ZONE indicate a LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED AND INTENSIFIED FIGHTING.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.88
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.88
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
The new Canadian Prime Minister intends to take a firm stance against the US on trade issues.: 0.16
Trade relations between Canada and the US will remain strained in the near future.: 0.08
An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.8
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78
There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.58
The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.78
Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
Russian Ka-52 pilots are employing specific attack profiles and targeting strategies.: 0.47
Russian helicopters are operating in contested airspace and employing electronic warfare countermeasures.: 0.47
The video is part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonstrate military strength and operational effectiveness.: 0.47
Ukraine is attempting to persuade the US to resume intelligence and military support.: 0.78
Ukraine is offering a partial ceasefire on long-range drone/missile strikes and Black Sea operations.: 0.72
Ukraine is emphasizing President Zelensky's desire for a swift end to the war.: 0.65
The proposed ceasefire agreement includes a halt
Trump stated that the provision of intelligence data to Ukraine has "almost been restored.": 0.82
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian mortar position near Konstantinovka using FPV drones.: 0.8
The destruction of the mortar position indicates ongoing counter-battery warfare.: 0.8
Russian forces continue offensive operations near Pokrovsk, reportedly destroying NATO equipment.: 0.75
The reports on destroyed NATO equipment are likely exaggerated for propaganda purposes.: 0.3
The video evidence is inconclusive and needs further verification.: 0.25
The destruction of NATO-supplied equipment, if confirmed, would be a significant tactical victory for Russia.: 0.6
Russian soldiers captured a US-supplied Humvee.: 0.72
The captured Humvee is of little strategic importance.: 0.44
The video is likely intended for propaganda purposes.: 0.48
The US will assess Ukraine's willingness to make concessions to Russia during the upcoming Saudi Arabia meeting.: 0.88
US will increase pressure on Ukraine to negotiate.: 0.44
The Russian government claims 4800 Ukrainian casualties have been inflicted in the LPR.: 0.1
Two civilians have been killed, and seven injured due to Russian attacks in the Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporozhzhia, and Kharkiv regions.: 0.65
Russian forces may be using North Korean soldiers.: 0.1
Russian forces used fiber-optic controlled FPV drones.: 0.66
The video aims to create a narrative of Ukrainian military success.: 0.48
The video is part of a coordinated information warfare campaign to undermine support for Ukraine.: 0.32
The video seeks to weaken international coalition unity by creating doubts about Western allies' motivations.: 0.08
Russian forces are consolidating their control in the Kursk Oblast region and preparing for a potential Ukrainian counter-offensive.: 0.83
The map is intentionally designed to overstate Russian gains and demoralize Ukrainian forces and their allies.: 0.27
: 0.1
Ukrainian forces are actively contesting control in the 'grey zone' settlements, leading to a fluid and dynamic front line.: 0.04
Russian forces liberated Pravda, Kositsa, Kubatkin, Mikhailovka, Martynovka, Malaya Loknya, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Cherkasskaya Konopelka: 0.6
Russian airborne units are clearing forests and strongholds in the direction of Dmitryukov Makhnovka.: 0.5
Active assault operations near Melovoye, Ivashkovsky, Guyevo, and Makhnovka.: 0.5
Europe is searching for a Starlink alternative.: 0.6
Russia may be using a gas pipeline near Sudzha.: 0.4
Russian forces captured Ivashkovsky.: 0.88
Russian naval forces are operating in the Black

Situation Report

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 17, 2025, 11:31 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (11:01 UTC - 11:31 UTC)

Updated Situation Summary

Updated Recommendations