Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 16, 2025, 14:31 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (14:02 UTC - 14:31 UTC)

CONFIRMED UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWAL FROM KURSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
- РБК-Україна (14:25 UTC), citing NYT: Reports that Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from the entire territory of Kursk Oblast, except for a small area.
- Assessment: This represents a SIGNIFICANT SHIFT in the BATTLEFIELD DYNAMICS in the KURSK REGION. While the EXACT EXTENT of the REMAINING UKRAINIAN-HELD TERRITORY is UNCLEAR, this confirms a MAJOR RUSSIAN ADVANCE. This suggests RUSSIAN FORCES have SUCCESSFULLY PUSHED BACK UKRAINIAN INCURSIONS. URGENT VERIFICATION of the REMAINING UKRAINIAN POSITIONS is NEEDED. This also CONTRADICTS earlier reports of a LARGE-SCALE UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVE in this AREA.
US THREATENS MEASURES AGAINST RUSSIA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
- ТАСС (14:30 UTC), citing Waltz: Reports that the US may take measures against Russia if it does not agree to Trump's proposed ceasefire in Ukraine.
- Assessment: This indicates INCREASING US PRESSURE on RUSSIA to ACCEPT A CEASEFIRE. The NATURE of the "measures" is UNSPECIFIED, but it COULD INCLUDE SANCTIONS, INCREASED MILITARY AID TO UKRAINE, or OTHER ACTIONS. This adds a NEW DIMENSION to the NEGOTIATIONS.
WHITE HOUSE ON UKRAINE'S NATO MEMBERSHIP (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
- ТАСС (14:07 UTC), Alex Parker Returns (14:10): Reports that the White House stated Ukraine's NATO membership is highly unlikely, a position shared by other alliance members.
- Assessment: This REINFORCES the UNLIKELIHOOD of UKRAINE JOINING NATO in the NEAR FUTURE. This is a KEY RUSSIAN DEMAND and could be a FACTOR in any POTENTIAL NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT.
WHITE HOUSE ON TERRITORIAL CONCESSIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
- ТАСС (14:05 UTC), Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (14:23 UTC): Reports that the White House stated a settlement in Ukraine will involve some form of Kyiv giving up territories in exchange for future security guarantees.
- Assessment: This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT. It SUGGESTS that the US IS PUSHING UKRAINE to ACCEPT TERRITORIAL CONCESSIONS as part of a DEAL. This is LIKELY TO BE HIGHLY CONTROVERSIAL and COULD FACE STRONG OPPOSITION from UKRAINE. URGENT CLARIFICATION is needed on the SPECIFIC TERMS and the NATURE OF THE SECURITY GUARANTEES.

UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF REPORT (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (14:04 UTC): Provides a detailed operational update, outlining Russian attacks and Ukrainian defensive actions across multiple fronts. Confirms ongoing fighting in several key areas, including:

*   Kharkiv direction (near Vovchansk, Kam'yanky, Kutyivka)

*   Kup'yansk direction (Petropavlivka, Bohuslavka, Lozova, Zahryzove)
*   Lyman direction (Novoyehorivka, Zelena Dolyna, Novomykhailivka)
*   Siversk direction (Verkhn'okam'yans'ke, Ivano-Dar'yivka)
*   Kramatorsk direction (Chasiv Yar)
*   Toretsk direction (Toretsk, Druzhba)
*   Pokrovsk direction (Sukha Balka, Yelyzavetivka, Promin', Kotlyne, Novooleksandrivka, Uspenivka, Yasenove, Andriyivka).
*   Novopavlivsk direction (Konstantinopol)
*   Huliaipole direction (Skudne, Privilne, Vilne Pole, Novopil)
*   Orihiv direction (Stepove, Zherebyanky)
*   Kursk direction (8 clashes, 2 ongoing; 9 airstrikes, 16 KABs; 104 shelling incidents)

Also reports on artillery and mortar attacks on settlements in Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions.

Assessment: This report CONFIRMS INTENSE FIGHTING across MULTIPLE FRONTS, with RUSSIAN FORCES continuing OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS. The DETAILED LIST OF LOCATIONS provides VALUABLE INFORMATION for ASSESSING THE BATTLEFIELD SITUATION. The HIGH NUMBER OF CLASHES (64) indicates the SCALE of the FIGHTING. The report of 16 KABs (guided aerial bombs) dropped in the KURSK DIRECTION is SIGNIFICANT, indicating a HIGH LEVEL OF RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY. The UKRAINIAN FORCES claim to be HOLDING THEIR DEFENSIVE POSITIONS.

AZERBAIJAN-ARMENIA CLASH (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
- РБК-Україна (14:12 UTC): Reports Azerbaijan accusing Armenia of shelling, which Armenia denies.
- Assessment: This is NOT DIRECTLY RELATED TO UKRAINE, but COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS if it ESCALATES and DISTRACTS RUSSIAN ATTENTION/RESOURCES.
OTHER REPORTS

ТАСС (14:03:01): Reports that the suspected killer of nationalist Ganul, Senior Lieutenant of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Sergey Shalaev, has pleaded guilty.
МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ I Новости I Срочники (14:05:57): Reports 23rd case of soldiers being held in a basement, for refusing to fight.
Colonelcassad (14:06:31): Animated map of strikes on Ukraine for March 15-16, 2025.
Kotsnews (14:09:31), Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (14:22:22): Series of photos and videos of destroyed NATO equipment near Sudzha.

Updated Situation Summary

EXTREME PRIORITY:
- CONFIRMED UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWAL FROM MOST OF KURSK OBLAST. MAJOR RUSSIAN ADVANCE. URGENT VERIFICATION OF REMAINING UKRAINIAN POSITIONS NEEDED.
- INTENSE FIGHTING CONTINUES ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS, according to the UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF. RUSSIAN FORCES are CONTINUING OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS.
HIGH PRIORITY:
- US IS PUSHING UKRAINE TO ACCEPT TERRITORIAL CONCESSIONS in exchange for SECURITY GUARANTEES, according to the WHITE HOUSE. MAJOR DEVELOPMENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OPPOSITION.
- RUSSIAN FORCES CLAIM TO BE CONSOLIDATING CONTROL in the KURSK REGION, with DEMINING OPERATIONS underway and RESTRICTED ACCESS to NUMEROUS SETTLEMENTS. REPORTS of UKRAINIAN FORCES MASQUERADING AS CIVILIANS suggest POTENTIAL GUERRILLA ACTIVITY.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
- US THREATENS MEASURES AGAINST RUSSIA if it does not ACCEPT a CEASEFIRE.
- UKRAINE'S NATO MEMBERSHIP IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY, according to the WHITE HOUSE.
- NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN THE US AND RUSSIA APPEAR TO BE PROGRESSING, with the US EXPRESSING CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM. However, the ISSUE OF TERRITORIAL CONCESSIONS remains a MAJOR OBSTACLE.
- AZERBAIJAN-ARMENIA CLASH: POTENTIAL for ESCALATION.
- REPORTS OF A LARGE UK-LED MILITARY DEPLOYMENT TO UKRAINE (10,000+ "PEACEKEEPERS"). POTENTIAL MAJOR ESCALATION. URGENT VERIFICATION REQUIRED.
CLAIMED UKRAINIAN CONCESSIONS ON TERRITORY IN CASE OF A CEASEFIRE. POTENTIAL MAJOR SHIFT IN NEGOTIATING POSITION. URGENT VERIFICATION REQUIRED.
POTENTIAL TRUMP-PUTIN CALL AND US NEGOTIATIONS WITH UKRAINE AND RUSSIA THIS WEEK. MAJOR IMPLICATIONS FOR DIPLOMACY AND THE FUTURE OF THE CONFLICT.
LOW PRIORITY:
RUSSIAN SATELLITE LAUNCH.

Updated Recommendations

CONFIRM UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWAL AND ASSESS REMAINING POSITIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, human intelligence) to CONFIRM THE EXTENT OF THE UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWAL from KURSK OBLAST.
- IDENTIFY THE PRECISE LOCATION of any REMAINING UKRAINIAN-HELD TERRITORY.
- ASSESS THE STRENGTH AND CAPABILITIES of UKRAINIAN FORCES in the REMAINING AREA.
- DETERMINE THE REASONS for the WITHDRAWAL (e.g., overwhelming Russian force, logistical challenges, strategic decision).
ANALYZE UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF REPORT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
- USE THE REPORTED LOCATIONS OF FIGHTING to FOCUS INTELLIGENCE GATHERING EFFORTS.
- ASSESS THE INTENSITY OF FIGHTING in each AREA and IDENTIFY POTENTIAL RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGH POINTS.
- MONITOR RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY, particularly the use of KABs.
- PROVIDE SUPPORT to UKRAINIAN FORCES in AREAS UNDER HEAVY ATTACK.
CLARIFY US POSITION ON TERRITORIAL CONCESSIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- SEEK CLARIFICATION from the US on the SPECIFIC TERMS of any PROPOSED TERRITORIAL CONCESSIONS.
- DETERMINE THE NATURE OF THE SECURITY GUARANTEES being OFFERED to UKRAINE.
- ASSESS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT of TERRITORIAL CONCESSIONS on UKRAINIAN MORALE, INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT, and the LONG-TERM PROSPECTS FOR REGAINING LOST TERRITORY.
MONITOR US THREAT OF MEASURES AGAINST RUSSIA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
- ATTEMPT TO DETERMINE THE SPECIFIC MEASURES being CONSIDERED by the US.
- ASSESS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT of these MEASURES on RUSSIA'S MILITARY CAPABILITIES and WILLINGNESS TO NEGOTIATE.
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS, ADJUSTED TO PRIORITIES:

The situation has CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY with the CONFIRMED UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWAL from MOST OF KURSK OBLAST and the REPORTS of US PRESSURE on UKRAINE to ACCEPT TERRITORIAL CONCESSIONS. These developments REQUIRE IMMEDIATE AND FOCUSED ATTENTION. VERIFYING INFORMATION, ASSESSING THE CHANGING BATTLEFIELD DYNAMICS, and UNDERSTANDING THE EVOLVING DIPLOMATIC LANDSCAPE are CRITICAL.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.88
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.88
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.76
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.999999999999999999999999
Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
The new Canadian Prime Minister
Qatar supports initiatives to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, according to the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs.: 0.9
The Ukrainian General Staff has confirmed the loss of Sudzha, now under Russian control.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Russian Drone operators struck a temporary deployment point in Razliv.: 0.899999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Enemy tactical aviation activity in the north, with threat of airborne weapons.: 0.8
Hull Daily Mail claimed 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in the Kursk direction.: 0.1
A Leopard tank was destroyed by Russian drone operators in the south-donetsk direction.: 0.7
A MaxxPro armored vehicle was destroyed by Russian drone operators in the south-donetsk direction.: 0.7
A Russian "Vandal" drone destroyed a Ukrainian "wooden" armored vehicle.: 0.6
Russian forces advanced 2 km on the eastern outskirts of Krasnoarmeysk, reaching Tarasovka.: 0.4
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk region.: 0.4
The Russian Air Force used a FAB-3000 bomb to destroy a Ukrainian fortified position in the Kursk direction.: 0.8
A Russian infantry attack towards Veseloe.: 0.65
Russian advances on the Burlatskoe-Skudnoe line, extending control by up to 2.5 km.: 0.8
In the Kharkiv Direction, units of the "North" group of troops inflicted damage on formations of the assault battalion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the border detachment of the Ukrainian Border Guard Service in the areas of the settlements of Perovskoe and Kazachya Lopan in the Kharkiv region.: 0.7
The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 70 servicemen, six vehicles, four artillery pieces, and an electronic warfare station in the Kharkiv Direction.: 0.6
Units of the "South" group of troops have occupied more advantageous lines and positions.: 0.6
The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 305 servicemen, a tank, an armored fighting vehicle, four vehicles, seven field artillery pieces, including four Western-made, and a Croatian-made RAK-SA-12 multiple rocket launcher system. A material warehouse was destroyed.: 0.5
Units of the "Center" group of troops continued to advance deep into the enemy's defense.: 0.6
The enemy lost up to 450 servicemen, five armored fighting vehicles, eight pickup trucks, five artillery pieces, and an electronic warfare station in the Center Direction.: 0.5
Units of the "East" group of troops have improved their position along the front line.: 0.5
The Ukrainian Armed Forces losses amounted to over 150 servicemen, two armored fighting vehicles, five vehicles, and three field artillery pieces in the East Direction.: 0.4
Units of the "Dnipro" group of troops inflicted damage on the manpower and equipment of two mechanized, mountain assault brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Up to 90 servicemen, five vehicles, two field artillery pieces, and three electronic warfare stations were destroyed.: 0.5
Air defense systems shot down four US-made JDAM guided bombs and 141 fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles.: 0.6
Since the beginning of the special military operation, 658 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 46917 unmanned aerial vehicles, 601 anti-aircraft missile systems, 22297 tanks and other armored fighting vehicles, 1529 multiple launch rocket systems, 22620 field artillery and mortars, and 32940 special military vehicles have been destroyed.: 0.4
Enemy tactical aviation activity in the southern direction.: 0.85
Threat of the use of aviation weapons for frontline areas.: 0.8
Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in Sumy region.: 0.8
Ukrainian forces successfully repelled 36 attacks in the Pokrovsk area.: 0.8
From March 10-16, 2025, Ukrainian air defenses destroyed over 850 aerial targets.: 0.8
1 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile was destroyed: 0.7
515 Shahed attack drones were destroyed.: 0.8
170 reconnaissance drones were destroyed.: 0.8
172 other types of drones were destroyed.: 0.7
The Ukrainian Air Force conducted over 160 sorties during the week.: 0.8
Russian forces are evacuating civilians from recently liberated Sudzha and Kazachya Loknya.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
About 40 civilians were evacuated from Sudzha, including bedridden patients: 0.7
371 people, including 14 children, have been evacuated from liberated settlements in the Kursk region since March 12.: 0.6
A phone call between Putin and Trump is expected next week.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Whitkoff's meeting with Putin in Moscow lasted 3-4 hours and was "positive".: 0.7
Putin "accepts Trump's philosophy" regarding the end of the war.: 0.7
The distance between US and Russian positions on Ukraine has narrowed.: 0.55
Trump expects the war in Ukraine to end within weeks.: 0.1
Britain intends to deploy over 10,000 troops to Ukraine as part of a "coalition of the willing".: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Britain has secured support from "significantly more" countries than previously.: 0.65
Launches of guided aerial bombs (KAB) towards Kharkiv Oblast.: 0.78
Russian forces advanced 1km deep and 500m wide near Razliv.: 0.75
Russian forces captured two strongholds and a dominant height near Shevchenko, advancing 500m deep and 2km wide.: 0.65
5 reinforcement groups, 3 rotation attempts, and 3 engineering groups were destroyed.: 0.5
MaxxPro armored vehicle, 5 other vehicles, and up to 25 Ukrainian personnel were destroyed.: 0.5
Russian forces are establishing positions near Basivka on the border of Sumy Oblast.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
The President of Finland believes it is virtually impossible to reach a ceasefire with Russia.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999
Russian forces made advances near Hryhorivka and Orikhovo-Vasylivka.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Ukrainian forces captured aerial footage near Basivka.: 0.8
An "Angara-1.2" light-class rocket launched military satellites into orbit.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999
US Negotiating teams will meet with Ukrainian and Russian counterparts.: 0.9
Ukrainian tactical and army aviation have increased activity near the front lines.: 0.68
Ukraine has come to terms with freezing the current front line.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999
Ukraine refuses to concede additional territory.: 0.7
Ukraine demands the return of children and civilians.: 0.68
Ukraine demands international security guarantees.: 0.66
Russian forces are controlling the central part of Honcharivka.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Russian forces are controlling 1.5 km west of Sudzha.: 0.9
Two mine-clearing ships provided by the UK are ready for deployment in the Black Sea in case of a ceasefire.: 0.86
A settlement in Ukraine will involve Kyiv abandoning territory in exchange for future security guarantees.: 0.99999999999999999999999999
Ukraine's membership in NATO is unlikely.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Ukrainian forces have retreated from the territory of the Kursk region, except for a small plot of land.: 0.999999

Situation Report

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 16, 2025, 14:31 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (14:02 UTC - 14:31 UTC)

Updated Situation Summary

Updated Recommendations