Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 16, 2025, 13:31 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (13:01 UTC - 13:31 UTC)

CIVILIAN EVACUATIONS FROM SUDZHA AND KAZACHYA LOKNYA (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):
- MoD Russia (13:03 UTC): Video showing Russian servicemen evacuating civilians from "recently liberated" SUDZHA and KAZACHYA LOKNYA. Claims helping civilians is a "most important task."
- Басурин о главном (13:03 UTC): Reports evacuation of approximately 40 civilians from SUDZHA, including bedridden patients. Claims 371 people, including 14 children, evacuated from "liberated settlements" in KURSK OBLAST since March 12.
- Assessment: This CONFIRMS ONGOING CIVILIAN EVACUATIONS from SUDZHA and SURROUNDING AREAS, strongly suggesting RUSSIAN CONTROL over AT LEAST PARTS of these SETTLEMENTS. The EMPHASIS on ASSISTING CIVILIANS is likely a PROPAGANDA EFFORT to portray RUSSIAN FORCES as LIBERATORS.
CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR HRYHORIVKA AND OREKHOVO-VASYLIVKA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
- Z комитет + карта СВО (13:15 UTC): Map claiming advances by Russian forces near HRYHORIVKA and OREKHOVO-VASYLIVKA.
- Assessment: REQUIRES VERIFICATION. This is CONSISTENT with PREVIOUS REPORTS of RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS in this AREA, but INDEPENDENT CONFIRMATION is NEEDED.
POTENTIAL TRUMP-PUTIN CALL NEXT WEEK (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
- ТАСС (13:10 UTC, 13:13 UTC, 13:23 UTC), Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (13:13 UTC), Alex Parker Returns (13:23 UTC), РБК-Україна (13:23 UTC), Colonelcassad (13:28 UTC): Report that a phone call between PUTIN and TRUMP is expected next week, according to US Special Envoy WHITKOFF. Claims WHITKOFF's meeting with PUTIN in Moscow lasted 3-4 hours and was "positive." Claims PUTIN "accepts TRUMP's philosophy" and both want an end to the war. WHITKOFF claims the distance between US and Russian positions on Ukraine is shrinking and expects resolution "within weeks."
- Assessment: This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT if TRUE. It suggests POTENTIAL BACKCHANNEL NEGOTIATIONS between RUSSIA and TRUMP, BYPASSING THE CURRENT US ADMINISTRATION. The claim of RAPID RESOLUTION ("within weeks") is HIGHLY UNLIKELY but indicates POTENTIAL MOMENTUM towards SOME FORM OF NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT. URGENT VERIFICATION and CAREFUL MONITORING are ESSENTIAL.
CLAIMED UK STATEMENT ON DEPLOYING 10,000+ TROOPS TO UKRAINE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
- ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (13:09 UTC), РБК-Україна (13:10 UTC), ТАСС (13:26 UTC): Report, citing THE TIMES, that BRITAIN intends to deploy over 10,000 troops to Ukraine as part of a "coalition of the willing." Claims Britain has secured support from "significantly more" countries than previously.
- Assessment: This is a MAJOR ESCALATION if TRUE. It would represent a SIGNIFICANT SHIFT in WESTERN INVOLVEMENT in the CONFLICT. IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION from OFFICIAL UK SOURCES is ABSOLUTELY CRUCIAL. This report COULD BE DISINFORMATION.
CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
- Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (13:29 UTC): Reports launches of guided aerial bombs (KAB) towards KHARKIV OBLAST.
- Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY and a HIGH THREAT of AIRSTRIKES in KHARKIV OBLAST.
CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (VREMIVKA DIRECTION) (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
- Воин DV (13:28 UTC): Reports on operations of the "Vostok" group in the South Donetsk direction, claiming: * Failed Ukrainian counterattacks near RAZLIV and SHEVCHENKO. * Russian forces advanced 1km deep and 500m wide near RAZLIV. * Russian forces captured two strongholds and a dominant height near SHEVCHENKO, advancing 500m deep and 2km wide. * Claimed destruction of 5 reinforcement groups, 3 rotation attempts, and 3 engineering groups. * Claimed destruction of a MaxxPro armored vehicle, 5 other vehicles, and up to 25 Ukrainian personnel.
- Assessment: THESE CLAIMS REQUIRE VERIFICATION. If true, this SUGGESTS SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN GAINS in the VREMIVKA DIRECTION. The SPECIFICITY of the CLAIMS (locations, distances, equipment destroyed) ADDS SOME CREDIBILITY, but INDEPENDENT CONFIRMATION is ESSENTIAL.
REPORTED RUSSIAN POSITIONS NEAR BASIVKA (SUMY OBLAST) (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
- БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (13:28 UTC): Video purportedly showing Russian forces establishing positions near BASIVKA on the border of SUMY OBLAST. Claims footage is from the 67th Separate Mechanized Brigade.
- Assessment: REQUIRES VERIFICATION. If CONFIRMED, this could indicate a NEW AXIS OF RUSSIAN OPERATIONS in the SUMY REGION.
FINLAND'S STANCE ON RUSSIA NEGOTIATIONS (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (13:15): States that the President of Finland believes it would be virtually impossible to reach a ceasefire agreement with Russia, that Putin's primary objective to destroy Ukraine hasn't changed.
Assessment: This reinforces Finland's stance and the belief that Russia is not currently engaging in meaningful peace efforts.

CLAIMED UKRAINIAN AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE NEAR BASIVKA(MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (13:28 UTC): Claims their aerial reconnaissance captured Russian troops securing favorable frontiers on the Sumy region border near the village of Basivka.
Assessment: This requires verification, but would confirm Ukrainian surveillance efforts in the area.

Updated Situation Summary

EXTREME PRIORITY:
- POTENTIAL TRUMP-PUTIN CALL NEXT WEEK. MAJOR IMPLICATIONS for NEGOTIATIONS and the FUTURE OF THE CONFLICT.
- REPORTED UK INTENTION TO DEPLOY 10,000+ TROOPS TO UKRAINE. POTENTIAL MAJOR ESCALATION. URGENT VERIFICATION REQUIRED.
- CONFIRMED CIVILIAN EVACUATIONS FROM SUDZHA, STRONGLY SUGGESTING RUSSIAN CONTROL.
- RUSSIAN FORCES CONTINUE TO ADVANCE in the KURSK REGION.
- INTENSE RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKE CAMPAIGN against UKRAINE.
- CLAIM OF NATO OFFICERS ENCIRCLED IN KURSK REGION. URGENT VERIFICATION REQUIRED.
- CLAIMED UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF CONFIRMATION OF SUDZHA LOSS. This remains a top priority for verification.
HIGH PRIORITY:
CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR HRYHORIVKA, OREKHOVO-VASYLIVKA, RAZLIV, AND SHEVCHENKO. * REPORTED RUSSIAN POSITIONS NEAR BASIVKA (SUMY OBLAST). POTENTIAL NEW FRONT. * CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES, particularly in KHARKIV OBLAST. * UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE REPORTS SIGNIFICANT SUCCESSES. * RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF SIGNIFICANT ADVANCES AND UKRAINIAN LOSSES across MULTIPLE FRONTS.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
All previous medium priorities maintained.
LOW PRIORITY:
- All previous low priorities maintained.

Updated Recommendations

VERIFY THE REPORT OF UK TROOP DEPLOYMENT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- CONTACT UKRAINIAN AND UK OFFICIALS IMMEDIATELY to CONFIRM or DENY the REPORT.
- SEEK CLARIFICATION on the SIZE, COMPOSITION, and MISSION of any POTENTIAL DEPLOYMENT.
- ASSESS THE LIKELIHOOD of OTHER COUNTRIES JOINING a COALITION.
- DEVELOP CONTINGENCY PLANS for INTEGRATING and COORDINATING with ANY DEPLOYED FORCES.
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL TRUMP-PUTIN CALL (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
- GATHER ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE on the POTENTIAL CALL, including TIMING, AGENDA, and PARTICIPANTS.
- ANALYZE THE IMPLICATIONS of ANY AGREEMENTS or UNDERSTANDINGS reached BETWEEN TRUMP AND PUTIN.
- COORDINATE WITH US OFFICIALS (if possible) to UNDERSTAND THE US POSITION.
- DEVELOP A UKRAINIAN RESPONSE STRATEGY to ANY POTENTIAL OUTCOMES.
ADDRESS THE RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN THE KURSK REGION AND POTENTIAL NEW FRONT IN SUMY OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
- Maintain all previous recommendations.
- VERIFY THE REPORTED RUSSIAN POSITIONS NEAR BASIVKA (SUMY OBLAST).
- **IF CONFIRMED, DEPLOY FORCES to the AREA to DETER further RUSSIAN ADVANCES.
- INCREASE SURVEILLANCE along the ENTIRE NORTHERN BORDER to DETECT any OTHER RUSSIAN INCURSIONS.
VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF ADVANCES (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION).

Deploy all intelligence to verify claims near HRYHORIVKA, OREKHOVO-VASYLIVKA, RAZLIV, AND SHEVCHENKO.
Confirm extent of any advance.

MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND HIGHLY DYNAMIC. The POTENTIAL TRUMP-PUTIN CALL and the REPORT OF UK TROOP DEPLOYMENT represent POTENTIALLY GAME-CHANGING DEVELOPMENTS. The CONTINUED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE and the POSSIBILITY OF A NEW FRONT IN SUMY OBLAST add to the IMMEDIATE THREATS. RAPID RESPONSE, EFFECTIVE COMMUNICATION, AND CONSTANT MONITORING are CRITICAL. VERIFICATION of ALL CLAIMS is ESSENTIAL.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.88
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.88
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.76
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.999999999999999999999999
Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
The new Canadian Prime Minister
Qatar supports initiatives to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, according to the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs.: 0.9
The Ukrainian General Staff has confirmed the loss of Sudzha, now under Russian control.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Russian Drone operators struck a temporary deployment point in Razliv.: 0.899999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Enemy tactical aviation activity in the north, with threat of airborne weapons.: 0.8
Hull Daily Mail claimed 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in the Kursk direction.: 0.1
A Leopard tank was destroyed by Russian drone operators in the south-donetsk direction.: 0.7
A MaxxPro armored vehicle was destroyed by Russian drone operators in the south-donetsk direction.: 0.7
A Russian "Vandal" drone destroyed a Ukrainian "wooden" armored vehicle.: 0.6
Russian forces advanced 2 km on the eastern outskirts of Krasnoarmeysk, reaching Tarasovka.: 0.4
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk region.: 0.4
The Russian Air Force used a FAB-3000 bomb to destroy a Ukrainian fortified position in the Kursk direction.: 0.8
A Russian infantry attack towards Veseloe.: 0.65
Russian advances on the Burlatskoe-Skudnoe line, extending control by up to 2.5 km.: 0.8
In the Kharkiv Direction, units of the "North" group of troops inflicted damage on formations of the assault battalion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the border detachment of the Ukrainian Border Guard Service in the areas of the settlements of Perovskoe and Kazachya Lopan in the Kharkiv region.: 0.7
The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 70 servicemen, six vehicles, four artillery pieces, and an electronic warfare station in the Kharkiv Direction.: 0.6
Units of the "South" group of troops have occupied more advantageous lines and positions.: 0.6
The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 305 servicemen, a tank, an armored fighting vehicle, four vehicles, seven field artillery pieces, including four Western-made, and a Croatian-made RAK-SA-12 multiple rocket launcher system. A material warehouse was destroyed.: 0.5
Units of the "Center" group of troops continued to advance deep into the enemy's defense.: 0.6
The enemy lost up to 450 servicemen, five armored fighting vehicles, eight pickup trucks, five artillery pieces, and an electronic warfare station in the Center Direction.: 0.5
Units of the "East" group of troops have improved their position along the front line.: 0.5
The Ukrainian Armed Forces losses amounted to over 150 servicemen, two armored fighting vehicles, five vehicles, and three field artillery pieces in the East Direction.: 0.4
Units of the "Dnipro" group of troops inflicted damage on the manpower and equipment of two mechanized, mountain assault brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Up to 90 servicemen, five vehicles, two field artillery pieces, and three electronic warfare stations were destroyed.: 0.5
Air defense systems shot down four US-made JDAM guided bombs and 141 fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles.: 0.6
Since the beginning of the special military operation, 658 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 46917 unmanned aerial vehicles, 601 anti-aircraft missile systems, 22297 tanks and other armored fighting vehicles, 1529 multiple launch rocket systems, 22620 field artillery and mortars, and 32940 special military vehicles have been destroyed.: 0.4
Enemy tactical aviation activity in the southern direction.: 0.85
Threat of the use of aviation weapons for frontline areas.: 0.8
Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in Sumy region.: 0.8
Ukrainian forces successfully repelled 36 attacks in the Pokrovsk area.: 0.8
From March 10-16, 2025, Ukrainian air defenses destroyed over 850 aerial targets.: 0.8
1 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile was destroyed: 0.7
515 Shahed attack drones were destroyed.: 0.8
170 reconnaissance drones were destroyed.: 0.8
172 other types of drones were destroyed.: 0.7
The Ukrainian Air Force conducted over 160 sorties during the week.: 0.8
Russian forces are evacuating civilians from recently liberated Sudzha and Kazachya Loknya.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
About 40 civilians were evacuated from Sudzha, including bedridden patients: 0.7
371 people, including 14 children, have been evacuated from liberated settlements in the Kursk region since March 12.: 0.6
A phone call between Putin and Trump is expected next week.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Whitkoff's meeting with Putin in Moscow lasted 3-4 hours and was "positive".: 0.7
Putin "accepts Trump's philosophy" regarding the end of the war.: 0.7
The distance between US and Russian positions on Ukraine has narrowed.: 0.55
Trump expects the war in Ukraine to end within weeks.: 0.1
Britain intends to deploy over 10,000 troops to Ukraine as part of a "coalition of the willing".: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Britain has secured support from "significantly more" countries than previously.: 0.65
Launches of guided aerial bombs (KAB) towards Kharkiv Oblast.: 0.78
Russian forces advanced 1km deep and 500m wide near Razliv.: 0.75
Russian forces captured two strongholds and a dominant height near Shevchenko, advancing 500m deep and 2km wide.: 0.65
5 reinforcement groups, 3 rotation attempts, and 3 engineering groups were destroyed.: 0.5
MaxxPro armored vehicle, 5 other vehicles, and up to 25 Ukrainian personnel were destroyed.: 0.5
Russian forces are establishing positions near Basivka on the border of Sumy Oblast.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
The President of Finland believes it is virtually impossible to reach a ceasefire with Russia.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999
Russian forces made advances near Hryhorivka and Orikhovo-Vasylivka.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Ukrainian forces captured aerial footage near Basivka.: 0.8

Situation Report

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 16, 2025, 13:31 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (13:01 UTC - 13:31 UTC)

Updated Situation Summary

Updated Recommendations