Сливочный каприз (12:15 UTC): Reports a Russian infantry attack towards Veseloe, with shelling from Ukrainian forces. Claims Russian advances on the Burlatskoe-Skudnoe line, extending control by up to 2.5 km. Includes map.
Assessment: This SUGGESTS CONTINUED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS in the VELIKAYA NOVOSELKA AREA. The CLAIMED ADVANCE of 2.5 KMREQUIRES VERIFICATION. The MAP PROVIDEDINCREASES CREDIBILITY, but INDEPENDENT CONFIRMATION is NEEDED.
REPORTED DESTRUCTION OF UKRAINIAN "LEOPARD" AND "MAXXPRO" (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, VIDEO EVIDENCE):
Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (11:47 UTC): Claims the destruction of a "Leopard" tank and a "MaxxPro" armored vehicle by Russian drone operators in the South Donetsk direction. Attributes the success to muddy terrain hindering the "MaxxPro's" maneuverability. Video provided.
Assessment: The CLAIM REQUIRES VERIFICATION. The VIDEO EVIDENCELIKELY INCREASES THE CREDIBILITY. If CONFIRMED, this represents a SIGNIFICANT LOSS for UKRAINE and a PROPAGANDA VICTORY for RUSSIA.
REPORTED DESTRUCTION OF UKRAINIAN "WOODEN" ARMORED VEHICLE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, VIDEO EVIDENCE):
АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (19:01 UTC): Claims a Russian "Vandal" drone destroyed a Ukrainian "wooden" armored vehicle. Video provided.
Assessment: The CLAIM REQUIRES VERIFICATION. "Wooden" likely refers to IMPROVISED ARMOR or A MODIFIED VEHICLE. The VIDEO EVIDENCE INCREASES THE CREDIBILITY.
CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE EAST OF KRASNOARMEYSK, REACHING TARASOVKA (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Report claims a Russian advance of 2 km.
Assessment: This CLAIM IS LIKELY EXAGGERATED OR FALSE. It DOES NOT ALIGN with OTHER REPORTS from this AREA.
REPORTED RUSSIAN DESTRUCTION OF UKRAINIAN STRONGHOLD AND FORTIFIED POSITION (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, VIDEO EVIDENCE):
Reported destruction of stronghold, and the use of a FAB-3000 bomb.
Assessment:PROPAGANDA.
AWOL SITUATION
РБК-Україна (12:27:19 UTC): 28-й бригаді reports about Senior Lieutenant who is a suspect.
Assessment: This is the official confirmation of the situation, but not relevant on a strategic level.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
RUSSIAN FORCES CONTINUE TO ADVANCE IN THE KURSK REGION, with CLAIMED ADVANCES near the OSKOL RIVER. DEMINING OPERATIONS are UNDERWAY, indicating CONSOLIDATION OF CONTROL in SOME AREAS.
INTENSE RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKE CAMPAIGN against UKRAINE, with OVER 1000 DRONE STRIKES, NEARLY 1360 GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS, and MORE THAN 10 MISSILES reported THIS WEEK.
CLAIM OF NATO OFFICERS ENCIRCLED IN KURSK REGION. URGENT VERIFICATION REQUIRED.
CLAIMED UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF CONFIRMATION OF SUDZHA LOSS. This requires immediate verification.
HIGH PRIORITY:
CLAIMED RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKESEAST OF POKROVSK.
CLAIMED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKE on a UKRAINIAN BRIGADE in KHERSON OBLAST.
CLAIMED HIGH UKRAINIAN CASUALTIES in KURSK.
REPORTS OF RUSSIAN SOLDIERS DETAINED FOR REFUSING TO FIGHT. FURTHER INVESTIGATION REQUIRED.
RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKE IN RAZLIV.
AIR RAID ALERTS IN NORTHERN UKRAINE.
CLAIMED DESTRUCTION OF UKRAINIAN "LEOPARD" AND "MAXXPRO".
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
CLAIMED UKRAINIAN SUCCESSES in using DRONES to INFLICT CASUALTIES.
RUSSIAN COASTAL DEFENSE DRILLS in CRIMEA.
POTENTIAL INCREASED EUROPEAN INVOLVEMENT, with MACRON stating EUROPEANS will NOT ASK PUTIN FOR PERMISSION to SEND TROOPS.
CONTINUED RUSSIAN EFFORTS to FRAME THE CONFLICT as a LIBERATION and PORTRAY UKRAINIAN FORCES as TERRORISTS.
ESCALATION OF US MILITARY OPERATIONS IN YEMEN. This COULD FURTHER DISTRACT US ATTENTION AND RESOURCES from UKRAINE.
REPORTED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKE ON UKRAINIAN BLINDAGE.
REPORTED RUSSIAN MISSILE STRIKE IN CHERNIHIV REGION.
CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR SEVERSK.
CLAIMED UKRAINIAN CASUALTIES NEAR LIMAN.
CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR VELIKAYA NOVOSELKA.
CLAIMED DESTRUCTION OF UKRAINIAN "WOODEN" ARMORED VEHICLE.
Updated Recommendations
ADDRESS THE RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR THE OSKOL RIVER (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
VERIFY THE CLAIMS of RUSSIAN ADVANCES.
REINFORCE UKRAINIAN POSITIONS near KAMENKA and KRASNOE PERVOE.
CONDUCT COUNTERATTACKS if FEASIBLE to SLOW DOWN or HALT the RUSSIAN ADVANCE.
ADDRESS THE INTENSE RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKE CAMPAIGN (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS regarding AIR DEFENSE.
URGENTLY REQUEST ADDITIONAL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS from INTERNATIONAL PARTNERS.
DEVELOP STRATEGIES to MITIGATE THE IMPACT of GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS.
INVESTIGATE THE CLAIMED DRONE STRIKES EAST OF POKROVSK (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
VERIFY THE REPORTS of DRONE STRIKES.
ASSESS THE IMPACT on UKRAINIAN FORCES in the AREA.
INVESTIGATE THE CLAIMED AIRSTRIKE IN KHERSON OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
VERIFY THE REPORT of an AIRSTRIKE on a UKRAINIAN BRIGADE.
ASSESS THE DAMAGE and IMPACT ON UKRAINIAN CAPABILITIES.
INVESTIGATE THE CLAIM OF HIGH CASUALTIES IN KURSK (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
VERIFY THE REPORTSFROM WESTERN PRESS.
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED EUROPEAN INVOLVEMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
ANALYZE MACRON'S STATEMENTS and ASSESS THE LIKELIHOOD of EUROPEAN TROOP DEPLOYMENTS to UKRAINE.
DEVELOP CONTINGENCY PLANS for COORDINATION with EUROPEAN FORCES, if DEPLOYED.
INVESTIGATE THE CLAIM OF NATO OFFICERS ENCIRCLED IN THE KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, human intelligence, signal intelligence) to the KURSK REGION to DETERMINE THE TRUTH of the CLAIM.
PRIORITIZE IDENTIFYING any FOREIGN MILITARY PERSONNEL that are POTENTIALLY CUT OFF or SURROUNDED.
INVESTIGATE REPORTS OF RUSSIAN SOLDIERS DETAINED FOR REFUSING TO FIGHT (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
GATHER INFORMATION from ALL AVAILABLE SOURCES on the REPORTED DETENTIONS and FORCED DEPLOYMENTS.
ASSESS THE SCALE AND IMPACT of these PRACTICES on RUSSIAN MILITARY MORALE and EFFECTIVENESS.
CONSIDER THE POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS for UKRAINIAN OPERATIONS, including the POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED DESERTIONS or SURRENDERS.
MONITOR THE SITUATION IN YEMEN (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
CLOSELY MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS in YEMEN, particularly HOUTHI STATEMENTS AND ACTIONS and US MILITARY OPERATIONS.
ASSESS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT on US MILITARY RESOURCES and ATTENTION and DEVELOP CONTINGENCY PLANS.
MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
VERIFY THE REPORTED LOSS OF SUDZHA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
SEEK CONFIRMATION from RELIABLE SOURCES, including UKRAINIAN MILITARY INTELLIGENCE and WESTERN MEDIA OUTLETS.
IF CONFIRMED, ASSESS THE STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS of the LOSS and ADJUST MILITARY PLANS ACCORDINGLY.
IF CONFIRMED, PREPARE A PUBLIC INFORMATION STRATEGY to ADDRESS THE SITUATION and MAINTAIN MORALE.
INVESTIGATE THE REPORTED DRONE STRIKE IN RAZLIV (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
CONFIRM THE LOCATION AND TARGET of the REPORTED STRIKE.
ASSESS THE DAMAGE and IMPACT ON UKRAINIAN FORCES.
VERIFY THE REPORTED DESTRUCTION OF THE "LEOPARD" AND "MAXXPRO" (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
* GATHER INTELLIGENCE to CONFIRM THE LOSSES.
* ASSESS THE IMPACT on UKRAINIAN FORCES.
VERIFY THE REPORTED DESTRUCTION OF THE "WOODEN" ARMORED VEHICLE (MEDIUM PRIORITY):
Obtain more information.
VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR VELIKAYA NOVOSELKA (MEDIUM PRIORITY):
USE ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the CLAIMED ADVANCES.
IF CONFIRMED, ASSESS THE THREAT and ADJUST DEFENSIVE POSITIONS as NECESSARY.
The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND HIGHLY DYNAMIC. The CONTINUED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE in the KURSK REGION, the INTENSE RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKE CAMPAIGN, the POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED EUROPEAN INVOLVEMENT, and the CLAIM OF ENCIRCLED NATO OFFICERS represent MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS. RAPID RESPONSE, EFFECTIVE COMMUNICATION, and CONSTANT MONITORING are CRITICAL.
Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:
The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.88
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.88
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.76
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.999999999999999999999999
Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
The new Canadian Prime Minister
Qatar supports initiatives to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, according to the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs.: 0.9
The Ukrainian General Staff has confirmed the loss of Sudzha, now under Russian control.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Russian Drone operators struck a temporary deployment point in Razliv.: 0.899999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Enemy tactical aviation activity in the north, with threat of airborne weapons.: 0.8
Hull Daily Mail claimed 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in the Kursk direction.: 0.1
A Leopard tank was destroyed by Russian drone operators in the south-donetsk direction.: 0.7
A MaxxPro armored vehicle was destroyed by Russian drone operators in the south-donetsk direction.: 0.7
A Russian "Vandal" drone destroyed a Ukrainian "wooden" armored vehicle.: 0.6
Russian forces advanced 2 km on the eastern outskirts of Krasnoarmeysk, reaching Tarasovka.: 0.4
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk region.: 0.4
The Russian Air Force used a FAB-3000 bomb to destroy a Ukrainian fortified position in the Kursk direction.: 0.8
A Russian infantry attack towards Veseloe.: 0.65
Russian advances on the Burlatskoe-Skudnoe line, extending control by up to 2.5 km.: 0.8
