Archived operational intelligence briefing
KRYVYI RIH ATTACK UPDATE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
ASTRA (19:16 UTC, 19:32 UTC), Офіс Генерального прокурора (19:35 UTC), Oleksandr Vilkul (19:29 UTC), Serhiy Lysak (19:30 UTC): Report EIGHT PEOPLE INJURED in the KRYVYI RIH attack. FIVE were HOSPITALIZED in MODERATE CONDITION.
Oleksandr Vilkul (19:29 UTC): States that the attack involved ISKANDER-M BALLISTIC MISSILES. Reports ONE STRIKE on a NIGHT CLUB in a DENSELY POPULATED AREA, and ANOTHER STRIKE on an UNSPECIFIED CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE OBJECT. States that EMERGENCY SERVICES are WORKING and AID STATIONS have been SET UP.
Serhiy Lysak (19:30): Reports damage to THREE APARTMENT BUILDINGS, BUSINESSES, and CITY COMMUNICATIONS.
Офіс Генерального прокурора (19:35): Reports DAMAGE to APARTMENT BUILDINGS, SHOPS, a RESTAURANT, and CARS. States a PRE-TRIAL INVESTIGATION has been LAUNCHED under ARTICLE 438 OF THE CRIMINAL CODE OF UKRAINE (violation of the laws and customs of war).
Assessment: CONFIRMS the USE OF BALLISTIC MISSILES in the KRYVYI RIH ATTACK, and INCREASES the number of INJURED to EIGHT. The TARGETING OF A NIGHT CLUB in a DENSELY POPULATED AREA is SIGNIFICANT, raising concerns about INTENTIONAL TARGETING OF CIVILIANS.
ONGOING RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):
Nikolaevskiy Vanek (19:24 UTC, 19:33 UTC): Reports SEVEN DRONES approaching CHORNOMORSK/OVIDIOPOL from the SEA. ANTI-DRONE OPERATIONS are UNDERWAY. Reports ONE DRONE heading towards/through YELANETS, ONE NEW DRONE in the BERYSLAV DISTRICT heading towards BEREZNEHUVATE, THREE DRONES from KHARKIV OBLAST into POLTAVA OBLAST, ONE DRONE towards/through BALAKLIYA, THIRTEEN DRONES from SUMY OBLAST into POLTAVA OBLAST, and SIX DRONES near KONOTOP heading WEST.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:29 UTC): Reports drone activity in CENTRAL SUMY OBLAST heading WEST (towards CHERNIHIV OBLAST), drones in SOUTHWEST SUMY OBLAST heading SOUTHWEST (towards CHERNIHIV and POLTAVA OBLASTS), drones in SOUTH/SOUTHEAST SUMY OBLAST heading towards POLTAVA and KHARKIV OBLASTS, drones in SOUTHWEST KHARKIV OBLAST heading towards POLTAVA OBLAST, drones in EASTERN MYKOLAIV OBLAST heading NORTHWEST, and groups of drones in the BLACK SEA heading WEST towards CHORNOMORSK.
Assessment: Indicates a LARGE AND WIDESPREAD RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK is ONGOING, targeting MULTIPLE REGIONS of UKRAINE. The HIGH NUMBER OF DRONES and MULTIPLE DIRECTIONS OF ATTACK suggest a COORDINATED EFFORT to OVERWHELM UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSES.
ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION FIGHTING (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
KURSK REGION FIGHTING (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
NEGOTIATIONS UPDATE (MEDIUM PRIORITY):
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (19:21 UTC), РБК-Україна (19:22 UTC): Report TRUMP stating that MORE INFORMATION on a CEASEFIRE in UKRAINE will be available on MONDAY. States that the US has REACHED AN AGREEMENT with UKRAINE and is NEGOTIATING with RUSSIA. Says things are "going well," but the FINAL SITUATION will be CLEAR on MARCH 17.
Zelenskiy / Official (19:22 UTC): Reports on a conversation with the VATICAN'S SECRETARY OF STATE, CARDINAL PAROLIN, thanking him for support and prayers. Mentions the Vatican is supportive of a ceasefire. Reports conversations with PATRIARCH BARTHOLOMEW and PASTOR FRANKLIN GRAHAM, highlighting their support. Also reports a conversation with FRENCH PRESIDENT MACRON, analyzing diplomacy and technical aspects of a ceasefire. States a conversation with TURKISH PRESIDENT ERDOGAN is scheduled.
Assessment: CONFIRMS that NEGOTIATIONS are ONGOING, with a POTENTIAL BREAKTHROUGH possible by MONDAY. The MULTIPLE DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENTS by ZELENSKYY highlight the IMPORTANCE of INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT for a CEASEFIRE.
OTHER:
EXTREME PRIORITY:
HIGH PRIORITY:
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
UKRAINIAN DRONE PARTS are claimed to have US and CANADIAN parts.
ADDRESS THE KRYVYI RIH ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
COUNTER THE RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
MONITOR AND RESPOND TO RUSSIAN ADVANCES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
SUPPORT DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
ADDRESS THE REPORTED USE OF US AND CANADIAN PARTS IN UKRAINIAN DRONES (MEDIUM PRIORITY):
UKRAINIAN drones shot down in *KUPYANSK* area.
MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS.
The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND DYNAMIC. The RUSSIAN BALLISTIC MISSILE ATTACK on KRYVYI RIH and the ONGOING, LARGE-SCALE DRONE ATTACK pose IMMEDIATE AND SIGNIFICANT THREATS. The POTENTIAL FOR A CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT by MONDAY is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT that REQUIRES CLOSE MONITORING and CAREFUL PLANNING.
Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:
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