Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 14, 2025, 14:56 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (14:28 UTC - 14:56 UTC)

1. KURSK REGION: CONTINUED FIGHTING, UKRAINIAN DENIAL OF ENCIRCLEMENT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED/REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (14:50 UTC): OFFICIALLY DENIES reports of UKRAINIAN FORCES BEING ENCIRCLED in the KURSK REGION. Claims the situation has NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY in the past 24 hours. States UKRAINIAN FORCES have REPOSITIONED to MORE ADVANTAGEOUS DEFENSIVE POSITIONS and are CONTINUING TO ENGAGE RUSSIAN FORCES. Reports 13 COMBAT CLASHES in the KURSK DIRECTION since the start of the day.

   • Assessment: This is a DIRECT CONTRADICTION of RUSSIAN CLAIMS and TRUMP'S STATEMENT. The GENERAL STAFF'S STATEMENT is likely intended to REASSURE the UKRAINIAN PUBLIC and INTERNATIONAL ALLIES and to COUNTER RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION. The REPORT OF REPOSITIONING suggests a CONTROLLED WITHDRAWAL rather than a ROUT. The CONTINUED FIGHTING and CLAIMED FIRE STRIKES on RUSSIAN FORCES indicate ONGOING RESISTANCE. URGENT VERIFICATION of the TRUE SITUATION on the GROUND remains ESSENTIAL.

   • Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (14:28 UTC): Reports a UKRAINIAN COLUMN OF PICKUPS AND MINIBUSES was DESTROYED by RUSSIAN DRONES while ATTEMPTING TO LEAVE THE KURSK BORDER AREA. Claims the column encountered a DESTROYED BRIDGE, blocking its retreat, and was then TARGETED by RUSSIAN DRONES.

   • Assessment: This report SUPPORTS THE RUSSIAN NARRATIVE of a DISORGANIZED UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWAL under INTENSE FIRE. The CLAIMED DESTRUCTION OF A BRIDGE further complicates the SITUATION for UKRAINIAN FORCES, POTENTIALLY TRAPPING some UNITS. HOWEVER, this report DOES NOT NECESSARILY CONTRADICT the UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF'S CLAIM of a CONTROLLED REPOSITIONING, as SOME UNITS may have been CUT OFF or DELAYED during the WITHDRAWAL.

   • TASS (14:50) reports that limitations have been introduced in some towns of the Kursk region due to mines and unexploded ordnance.

• Assessment: CONFIRMED that the KURSK REGION remains DANGEROUS.

2. TRUMP-PUTIN COMMUNICATION: FURTHER CLARIFICATION, POTENTIAL DISINFORMATION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (14:45 UTC): CLAIMS that TRUMP DID NOT SPEAK DIRECTLY WITH PUTIN, but rather with a US REPRESENTATIVE, WHITKOFF. States that TRUMP REQUESTED MERCY for SURROUNDED UKRAINIAN TROOPS through WHITKOFF.

   • Assessment: This SIGNIFICANTLY ALTERS the UNDERSTANDING of the REPORTED COMMUNICATION. If TRUE, it suggests a LESS DIRECT and POTENTIALLY LESS INFLUENTIAL INTERACTION than INITIALLY REPORTED. THIS COULD BE AN ATTEMPT by RUSSIAN SOURCES to DOWNPLAY TRUMP'S ROLE and REDUCE THE PERCEIVED SIGNIFICANCE of the NEGOTIATIONS. IT ALSO RAISES QUESTIONS about the ACCURACY of TRUMP'S INITIAL STATEMENT, FURTHER INCREASING SUSPICIONS of a POTENTIAL DISINFORMATION CAMPAIGN.

   • Alex Parker Returns (14:39): Claims Trump asked Putin to let Ukrainians leave the Kursk region as a gesture of mercy.

   • Assessment: REINFORCES PREVIOUS reports of RUSSIAN ADVANCES in KURSK REGION and CLAIMS that only 4 BORDER VILLAGES REMAIN UNDER UKRAINIAN CONTROL.

• The Guardian (14:56): States that Putin's rhetoric does not show signs of a willingness for peace and that the focus is still on maximum conditions.
• Assessment: REINFORCES reports of DIFFICULT NEGOTIATIONS and that RUSSIA WANTS CONTROL OF UKRAINE.

3. OTHER UPDATES

• KHARKIV REGION:
• Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (14:12): Reports Russian guided bomb usage in the Kharkiv region. * Assessment: CONFIRMED CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY.
• ZAPORIZHZHIA/KHERSON REGION:
• Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (14:30 UTC): Reports RUSSIAN RECONNAISSANCE DRONES in KHERSON and ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLASTS. Warns of POTENTIAL AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY.

*   *Assessment:* This confirms *CONTINUED RUSSIAN RECONNAISSANCE EFFORTS* in *SOUTHERN UKRAINE*. The *WARNING OF AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY* suggests a *HEIGHTENED STATE OF ALERT* and a *POTENTIAL FOR ENGAGEMENTS*.

*   *🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦* (14:35 UTC): Reports the *INSTALLATION OF 17 MODULAR CONCRETE SHELTERS* in *ZAPORIZHZHIA* to *PROTECT CIVILIANS* from *SHRAPNEL* and *BLAST WAVES*.
 * **Assessment:** This is a *SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT*, indicating *INCREASED EFFORTS* to *PROTECT CIVILIANS* in *ZAPORIZHZHIA*, which is *FREQUENTLY TARGETED* by *RUSSIAN STRIKES*. The *PLACEMENT OF SHELTERS* at *BUS STOPS* and other *PUBLIC LOCATIONS* suggests a *FOCUS ON PROTECTING* people in *VULNERABLE AREAS*.

• POKROVSK REGION:
• STERNENKO (14:35): Shows drone footage of Ukrainian forces striking Russian soldiers.
• Assessment: CONFIRMED ongoing drone activity on the POKROVSK REGION.
• CRIMEA:
• Дневник Десантника (14:11): Claims that NATO does not plan to be a mediator between the USA and Denmark.
• Assessment: This news item does not have an immediate military significance.
• ASTRA (14:21 UTC): Reports a RUSSIAN CITIZEN has been DETAINED IN ARMENIA on DESERTION CHARGES. Claims the individual NEVER SERVED IN THE MILITARY and is REQUESTING ASYLUM.

*   *Assessment:* This report *HIGHLIGHTS POTENTIAL ISSUES* with *RUSSIAN MOBILIZATION EFFORTS* and the *TREATMENT OF INDIVIDUALS* who *REFUSE TO FIGHT*.  The *CLAIM OF FALSE CHARGES* and the *REQUEST FOR ASYLUM* could *FUEL ANTI-WAR SENTIMENT* and *UNDERMINE PUBLIC SUPPORT* for the *CONFLICT*.  The *REPORT* also *RAISES QUESTIONS* about *ARMENIA'S STANCE* on the *CONFLICT* and its *WILLINGNESS TO COOPERATE* with *RUSSIAN AUTHORITIES*.

• UKRAINE GENERAL STAFF UPDATES (14:34):

• 90 CLASHES occurred.

• Artillery/mortar attacks targeted Guta-Studenetska (Chernihiv); Marchikhina Buda, Turya, Luhivka, Kucherivka, Ulanove, Porozok, Pokrovka, Baranovka (Sumy).

• Kharkiv: 1 clash near Krasne Pershe, airstrikes on Graniv and Kozacha Lopan.

• Kupyansk: 4 attacks near Zagrizove and Petropavlivka (2 ongoing).

• Lyman: 17 attacks near Kopanky, Novoyegorivka, Nove, Novovodyane, Yampolivka, Torske (5 ongoing).

• Siversk: 2 attacks repelled near Bilohorivka and Hryhorivka.

• Toretsk: 8 clashes completed, 4 ongoing near Dachne, Druzhba, and Toretsk.

• Pokrovsk: 25 attempts to push Ukrainian forces from positions near Sukha Balka, Vodyane Druhe, Svyrydonivka, Promin, Pokrovsk, Kotlyne, Kotlyarivka, Andriyivka, Shevchenko. 19 attacks repelled, 6 ongoing. Airstrikes on Hrodivka, Novopavlivka, Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, Zvirove.

• Novopavlivsk: 5 attempts to breach defenses near Kostyantynopil (1 ongoing).

• Huliaipole: Airstrike with 5 guided bombs on Huliaipole, Novopil, Zaliznychne.

• Orikhiv: 7 enemy assaults repelled near Stepove, Pyatikhatky, Shcherbaky.

• Pridniprovsky: Airstrikes with guided bombs on Kherson.

• Kramatorsk: No clashes.

• Kursk: 13 clashes (3 ongoing), 16 airstrikes (25 guided bombs), 98 artillery strikes.

• Assessment: Widespread fighting continues, with a focus on the LYMAN, POKROVSK, and KURSK directions. RUSSIAN FORCES are ACTIVELY USING AIR POWER, including GUIDED BOMBS. UKRAINIAN FORCES are ACTIVELY DEFENDING and REPELLING ATTACKS.

• RBC-Ukraine (14:29 UTC): Reports GERMAN POLITICIAN FRIEDRICH MERZ expects APPROVAL of ADDITIONAL 3 BILLION EUROS in MILITARY AID for UKRAINE by the BUNDESRAT on MARCH 21.

• Assessment: CONFIRMED potential increase in MILITARY AID.

• Zelenskiy / Official (14:54 UTC): Reports a PHONE CALL with PATRIARCH BARTHOLOMEW, thanking him for SUPPORT and discussing US-UKRAINE NEGOTIATIONS in JEDDAH. ZELENSKY states UKRAINE SUPPORTS the US PROPOSAL for a 30-DAY CEASEFIRE in the AIR, AT SEA, and ON LAND. REITERATES UKRAINE'S WILLINGNESS for PEACE and ACCUSES RUSSIA of OBSTRUCTING NEGOTIATIONS.

  • Assessment: This CONFIRMS UKRAINE'S DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS to ENGAGE RELIGIOUS LEADERS and PROMOTE A CEASEFIRE. The REFERENCE TO US-UKRAINE NEGOTIATIONS in JEDDAH suggests a COORDINATED APPROACH with KEY ALLIES. ZELENSKY'S ACCUSATIONS against RUSSIA continue the EFFORT TO PORTRAY RUSSIA as the OBSTACLE TO PEACE. The mention of a ceasefire on air, sea, and land, seems to contradict the reports of a proposed 30-day ceasefire on only air and naval forces.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • CONTINUED FIGHTING IN THE KURSK REGION, with CONFLICTING REPORTS on the SITUATION. The UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF DENIES ENCIRCLEMENT CLAIMS, reporting a CONTROLLED REPOSITIONING. RUSSIAN SOURCES continue to report UKRAINIAN LOSSES and DISORGANIZED RETREAT. URGENT VERIFICATION of the GROUND TRUTH is ESSENTIAL.
  • TRUMP-PUTIN COMMUNICATION CLARIFIED: Reports now indicate TRUMP DID NOT SPEAK DIRECTLY WITH PUTIN, but rather through a US REPRESENTATIVE. This SIGNIFICANTLY ALTERS the UNDERSTANDING of the INTERACTION and RAISES FURTHER QUESTIONS about POTENTIAL DISINFORMATION.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • CONTINUED FIGHTING ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS, particularly in the LYMAN, POKROVSK, and KURSK directions. RUSSIAN FORCES are ACTIVELY USING AIR POWER. UKRAINIAN FORCES are ACTIVELY DEFENDING.
  • RUSSIAN RECONNAISSANCE DRONES reported in KHERSON and ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLASTS, indicating HEIGHTENED ALERT for POTENTIAL AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY.
  • ZAPORIZHZHIA INCREASES CIVILIAN PROTECTION with the INSTALLATION OF CONCRETE SHELTERS.
  • POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED GERMAN MILITARY AID to UKRAINE.
  • ZELENSKY ENGAGES THE PATRIARCH in EFFORTS TO SECURE THE RELEASE OF UKRAINIAN PRISONERS and PROMOTE A CEASEFIRE, highlighting UKRAINE'S DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS.

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

  • RUSSIAN CITIZEN DETAINED IN ARMENIA on DESERTION CHARGES, highlighting POTENTIAL ISSUES with RUSSIAN MOBILIZATION and INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS.

Updated Recommendations

1. ADDRESS THE KURSK REGION SITUATION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • URGENTLY VERIFY THE GROUND TRUTH in the KURSK REGION, using ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS. Determine the ACTUAL POSITIONS and STATUS of UKRAINIAN FORCES.
   • IF UKRAINIAN FORCES ARE TRULY ENCIRCLED, IMMEDIATELY DEVELOP AND IMPLEMENT plans for:
     • BREAKING THE ENCIRCLEMENT, if possible.
     • NEGOTIATING SAFE PASSAGE for SURROUNDED TROOPS, if necessary.
     • PROVIDING SUPPORT (air drops, etc.) to ENCIRCLED TROOPS, if possible.
   • IF UKRAINIAN FORCES HAVE SUCCESSFULLY REPOSITIONED, CONSOLIDATE DEFENSES and PREPARE FOR FURTHER RUSSIAN ATTACKS.
   • CONTINUE TO GATHER INTELLIGENCE on RUSSIAN MOVEMENTS AND INTENTIONS.
   • MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS in AFFECTED AREAS.
   • PRIORITIZE EVACUATION of civilians in the KURSK REGION.

2. ADDRESS THE TRUMP-PUTIN COMMUNICATION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • URGENTLY CLARIFY THE NATURE AND CONTENT of the COMMUNICATION between US REPRESENTATIVES and RUSSIA. Determine the SPECIFIC PROPOSALS and CONDITIONS being DISCUSSED.
   • ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR DISINFORMATION and DEVELOP COUNTER-NARRATIVES if necessary.
   • MAINTAIN CLOSE COMMUNICATION with US OFFICIALS to ENSURE ALIGNMENT and COORDINATION.

3. ADDRESS THE CONTINUED FIGHTING ON MULTIPLE FRONTS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS.
   • PRIORITIZE DEFENSIVE OPERATIONS and MINIMIZE LOSSES.
   • CONTINUE TO GATHER INTELLIGENCE on RUSSIAN MOVEMENTS AND INTENTIONS.
   • MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS across ALL AFFECTED REGIONS.

4. MONITOR AND RESPOND TO RUSSIAN RECONNAISSANCE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS in KHERSON and ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLASTS.
   • PRIORITIZE THE INTERCEPTION of RUSSIAN RECONNAISSANCE DRONES.
   • PROVIDE TIMELY WARNINGS to CIVILIANS and MILITARY PERSONNEL.

5. SUPPORT CIVILIAN PROTECTION EFFORTS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • CONTINUE TO SUPPORT the INSTALLATION OF PROTECTIVE SHELTERS in VULNERABLE AREAS, particularly in ZAPORIZHZHIA.
   • ENSURE ADEQUATE RESOURCES for EMERGENCY SERVICES and HUMANITARIAN AID.

6. MONITOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • CLOSELY MONITOR the POTENTIAL APPROVAL of ADDITIONAL GERMAN MILITARY AID.
   • MAINTAIN COMMUNICATION with ALLIED GOVERNMENTS to COORDINATE SUPPORT for UKRAINE.

• MAINTAIN COMMUNICATION with the PATRIARCH and PROVIDE ANY REQUESTED INFORMATION to SUPPORT EFFORTS to SECURE THE RELEASE OF UKRAINIAN PRISONERS.

7. INVESTIGATE THE DETENTION IN ARMENIA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Gather information on the circumstances of the detention and the specific charges.
   • Assess the potential implications for diplomatic relations with Armenia.
   • Determine if any intervention or support can be provided to the detained individual.

8. MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND DYNAMIC. The CONFLICTING REPORTS on the SITUATION IN THE KURSK REGION and the CLARIFICATION of the TRUMP-PUTIN COMMUNICATION create SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY. CONTINUED FIGHTING on MULTIPLE FRONTS, RUSSIAN AIR AND DRONE ACTIVITY, and ONGOING DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS require CONSTANT MONITORING AND RESPONSE. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is REQUIRED to VERIFY INFORMATION, ADDRESS POTENTIAL THREATS, and MITIGATE FURTHER LOSSES.

[Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs] Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

• The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.88
• Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
• The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
• The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
• The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
• Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999
• Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
• Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.65
• Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
• 35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
• Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
• Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
• Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
• Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
• Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
• Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
• There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
• Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
• Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
• Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
• Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
• The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
• Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
• There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
• There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
• There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
• Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
• There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
• Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
• Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
• Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.57
• There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.68
• Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
• A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
• A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
• A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
• Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
• Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
• Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
• There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
• Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
• There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
• Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
• There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
• A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
• Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
• Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
• Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
• Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
• Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
• Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
• The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
• The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
• The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
• Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
• A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
• The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
• US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
• The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
• The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
• Intense fighting continues in the area of ​​Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
• The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
• The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
• The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
• Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
• Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
• The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
• Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
• Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
• Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
• On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
• Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
• Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
• Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
• Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
• The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
• One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
• Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
• Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
• Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
• 40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
• Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
• Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
• Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
• Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
• Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
• Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
• Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
• There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
• A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
• A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
• An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
• Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
• All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
• The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
• Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
• The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
• 180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
• 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
• Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
• Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
• Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.44
• Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
• Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
• Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
• Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
• Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
• Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
• UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
• Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
• The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
• Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
• Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
• Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
• The new Canadian Prime Minister intends to take a firm stance against the US on trade issues.: 0.16
• Trade relations between Canada and the US will remain strained in the near future.: 0.08
• An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
• Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
• Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
• A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
• The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.8
• Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78
• There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.58
• The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
• The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
• A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
• Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
• The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
• Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
• There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
• Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
• Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.78
• Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
• Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
• Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
• Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
• Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
• Russian Ka-52 pilots are employing specific attack profiles and targeting strategies.: 0.47
• Russian helicopters are operating in contested airspace and employing electronic warfare countermeasures.: 0.47
• The video is part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonstrate military strength and operational effectiveness.: 0.47
• Ukraine is attempting to persuade the US to resume intelligence and military support.: 0.78
• Ukraine is offering a partial ceasefire on long-range drone/missile strikes and Black Sea operations.: 0.72
• Ukraine is emphasizing President Zelensky's desire for a swift end to the war.: 0.65
• The proposed ceasefire agreement includes a halt to air attacks, naval operations, and attacks on energy/civilian infrastructure.: 0.67
• Trump stated that the provision of intelligence data to Ukraine has "almost been restored.": 0.82
• A Ukrainian attempt to unblock the SUDZHA-GORNAL road by attacking near the "Kolosok" camp with up to a company-sized assault group was completely destroyed, with the area remaining under Russian control.: 0.7
• Multiple bridges near Sudzha have been destroyed:0.7
• Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 2nd Knyazhy (destroyed by a FAB-3000 UMPK guided bomb).: 0.7