Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 14, 2025, 12:26 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (11:58 UTC - 12:26 UTC)

1. AIR RAID ALERT LIFTED IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (11:59 UTC): Announced the END OF THE AIR RAID ALERT in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST.
     • Assessment: This indicates that the IMMEDIATE THREAT in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST has PASSED, but VIGILANCE should REMAIN HIGH.

2. CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY, GUIDED BOMB LAUNCHES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (12:01 UTC): Reported ENEMY TACTICAL AVIATION launching GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS towards KHARKIV OBLAST.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (12:19 UTC): Reported ENEMY TACTICAL AVIATION launching GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS towards SUMY OBLAST.
     • Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY and the USE OF GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS against TARGETS IN UKRAINE. KHARKIV and SUMY OBLASTS are UNDER THREAT.

3. POTENTIAL DONBASS RECOGNITION BY RUSSIA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (11:59 UTC): Reports that Trump's aide, WALTZ, does NOT RULE OUT RECOGNITION OF DONBASS AS RUSSIAN as part of a PEACE AGREEMENT. Mentions discussions on recognizing RUSSIAN-SPEAKING REGIONS as Russian, excluding Kyiv's NATO MEMBERSHIP, and potential EUROPEAN TROOP DEPLOYMENT in Ukraine. Claims the US is working to BRING POSITIONS CLOSER and that TRUMP IS DETERMINED TO ACHIEVE PEACE.
     • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT REPORT suggesting POTENTIAL NEGOTIATING POSITIONS being CONSIDERED BY THE US. The IMPLICATIONS for UKRAINE'S TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY are SEVERE. VERIFICATION and CONTEXT are CRUCIAL. This COULD SIGNAL a MAJOR SHIFT in the US POSITION.

4. CLAIMED CAPTURE OF M777 HOWITZER NEAR SUDZHA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad (12:20 UTC): Claims a TROPHY AMERICAN M777 HOWITZER was CAPTURED near SUDZHA, INTACT with AMMUNITION. Claims Russian forces LIBERATED APPROXIMATELY 25 KM² of TERRITORY and are FIGHTING for GOGOLEVKA.
     • Assessment: The CAPTURE OF AN INTACT M777 HOWITZER with AMMUNITION is a SIGNIFICANT TACTICAL GAIN for RUSSIAN FORCES. This CONFIRMS PREVIOUS REPORTS of RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the SUDZHA AREA. The CLAIM of 25 KM² LIBERATED REQUIRES VERIFICATION. FIGHTING for GOGOLEVKA indicates CONTINUED OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS.

5. DRONE ATTACK ON MULINO TRAINING GROUND CONFIRMED (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):

   • STERNENKO(12:02 UTC): Reports on a drone attacking a military base in Mulino.
   • ASTRA(11:56): Shows video of the drone attack.
     • Assessment: CONFIRMS a SUCCESSFUL UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKE DEEP WITHIN RUSSIAN TERRITORY. The TARGET is HIGHLY STRATEGIC: the 333RD CENTER FOR COMBAT TRAINING OF THE WESTERN MILITARY DISTRICT. This is described as a "UNIQUE OBJECT" with NO ANALOGUES IN RUSSIA OR THE WORLD", capable of training 30,000 PERSONNEL ANNUALLY. The TEMPORARY CLOSURE of the AIRPORT indicates the SEVERITY of the THREAT. This ESCALATES the CONFLICT and demonstrates UKRAINIAN CAPABILITIES to STRIKE CRITICAL MILITARY INFRASTRUCTURE at LONG RANGE.

6. OTHER REPORTS:

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (12:00 UTC): Video of searching for a dog in the rubble in Konstantinovka. * Assessment: Indicates recent shelling and damage.
   • Colonelcassad (12:00): Reports collecting funds for 35 vehicles.
   • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (12:00): A game advertisement.
   • Николаевский Ванёк (12:01 UTC): Reports aviation is leaving, with no repeated launches.

• ТАСС (12:04): Claims that Trump will remove the issues with the relationship between Russia and the US.
• РБК-Україна (12:09): Reports that Ukraine is forming a team to monitor a 30 day ceasefire. * ‼️47 окрема механізована бригада «Маґура»(12:11): Celebrates "Ukrainian Volunteer Day". * МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ I Новости I Срочники (12:11): Discusses an invalid man being sent to the army.
• Два майора (12:10): Reports that Ganul was the head of the right sector. * Рыбарь (12:13): Reports that the Polish are requesting protection from Turkey. * ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦(12:14): Shows a profile of a soldier, callsign "Cossack", who joined the 127th brigade in April of 2024. * «Зона СВО» (12:14): Claims that Ukrainian forces are retreating from the Kursk region. * Президентська бригада ЗСУ (12:15): Celebrates its 25th anniversary. * Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) (12:15): Claims that Joe Biden is a false president. * Оперативний ЗСУ (12:20): Shows a picture of a hospital in Zolochev after an attack.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • CONFIRMED DRONE ATTACK on the 333RD CENTER FOR COMBAT TRAINING in MULINO, RUSSIA. MAJOR STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS. This ESCALATES the CONFLICT significantly.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY with GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS targeting KHARKIV and SUMY OBLASTS.
  • CLAIMED CAPTURE of an INTACT M777 HOWITZER near SUDZHA, CONFIRMING RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the AREA.

• CONTINUED AND INTENSE FIGHTING IN SUDZHA, with RUSSIAN FORCES ADVANCING into the CENTRAL PART OF THE TOWN. CLAIMS of CONTROL OVER SPECIFIC STREETS require VERIFICATION. * CONTINUED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE IN THE KURSK REGION, with MULTIPLE REPORTS suggesting SIGNIFICANT GAINS. * RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY and THREAT OF AIR AND MISSILE STRIKES across UKRAINE, particularly in the SOUTH, EAST, and NORTHEAST. BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT in SEVERAL REGIONS.

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

  • POTENTIAL for DONBASS RECOGNITION as RUSSIAN being CONSIDERED as part of US-RUSSIAN NEGOTIATIONS. MAJOR IMPLICATIONS.

Updated Recommendations

1. ADDRESS THE MULINO ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • IMMEDIATELY ASSESS THE DAMAGE to the 333RD CENTER FOR COMBAT TRAINING. DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF CASUALTIES and IMPACT ON TRAINING CAPABILITIES.
   • GATHER INTELLIGENCE on the TYPE OF DRONE USED and its LAUNCH ORIGIN.
   • INCREASE SECURITY around ALL CRITICAL MILITARY INFRASTRUCTURE DEEP WITHIN RUSSIAN TERRITORY, particularly TRAINING CENTERS.
   • DEVELOP CONTINGENCY PLANS for RELOCATING TRAINING ACTIVITIES if necessary.

2. ADDRESS THE RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN THE KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • Maintain all previous recommendations.
   • CONTINUE TO GATHER INTELLIGENCE on RUSSIAN MOVEMENTS AND INTENTIONS.
   • VERIFY the CLAIM of 25 KM² LIBERATED and the FIGHTING for GOGOLEVKA.
   • REINFORCE UKRAINIAN DEFENSES where possible, focusing on SLOWING DOWN RUSSIAN ADVANCES rather than holding fixed positions if resources are limited.
   • PRIORITIZE THE SAFETY OF UKRAINIAN PERSONNEL and the PRESERVATION OF EQUIPMENT.
   • DEVELOP CONTINGENCY PLANS for POTENTIAL COUNTEROFFENSIVES, but only when and where resources allow.

3. ADDRESS THE CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • Maintain all previous recommendations.
   • MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS across ALL AFFECTED REGIONS, particularly KHARKIV and SUMY OBLASTS.
   • PRIORITIZE the PROTECTION OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE and POPULATION CENTERS.
   • **CONTINUE TO MONITOR for FURTHER DRONE ACTIVITY and GUIDED BOMB LAUNCHES.
   • **IMPROVE AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS and TACTICS to COUNTER FUTURE ATTACKS.

4. INVESTIGATE AND VERIFY THE REPORT ON DONBASS RECOGNITION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • GATHER INTELLIGENCE on the SPECIFIC CONTEXT and VERACITY of the REPORT.
   • ASSESS the POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS for UKRAINE'S TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY and FUTURE NEGOTIATIONS.
   • COORDINATE with ALLIED GOVERNMENTS to UNDERSTAND the US POSITION and DEVELOP A UNIFIED RESPONSE.

5. MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND DYNAMIC. The CONFIRMED DRONE ATTACK on the RUSSIAN MILITARY TRAINING GROUND in MULINO is a MAJOR ESCALATION that DEMONSTRATES UKRAINIAN CAPABILITIES to STRIKE DEEP WITHIN RUSSIAN TERRITORY. The CONTINUED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE in the KURSK REGION and the THREAT OF AIR AND MISSILE STRIKES across UKRAINE remain HIGHLY CONCERNING. The REPORT on POTENTIAL DONBASS RECOGNITION adds a NEW LAYER OF COMPLEXITY and POTENTIAL RISK. RAPID INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, EFFECTIVE RESOURCE ALLOCATION, and CLOSE COORDINATION are ESSENTIAL.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

• The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.88
• Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
• The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
• The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
• The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
• Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
• Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.65
• Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
• 35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
• Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
• Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
• Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
• Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
• Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
• Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
• There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
• Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
• Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
• Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
• Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
• The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
• Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
• There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
• There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
• There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
• Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
• There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
• Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
• Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
• Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.57
• There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.68
• Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
• A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
• A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
• A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
• Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
• Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
• Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
• There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
• Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
• There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
• Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
• There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
• A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
• Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
• Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
• Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
• Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
• Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
• Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
• The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
• The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
• The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
• Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
• A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
• The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
• US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
• The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
• The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
• Intense fighting continues in the area of ​​Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
• The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
• The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
• The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
• Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
• Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
• The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
• Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
• Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
• Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
• On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
• Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
• Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
• Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
• Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
• The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
• One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
• Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
• Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
• Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
• 40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
• Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
• Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
• Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
• Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
• Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
• Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
• Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
• There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
• A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
• A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
• An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
• Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
• All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
• The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
• Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
• The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
• 180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
• 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
• Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
• Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
• Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.44
• Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
• Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
• Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
• Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
• Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
• Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
• UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
• Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
• The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
• Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
• Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
• Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
• The new Canadian Prime Minister intends to take a firm stance against the US on trade issues.: 0.16
• Trade relations between Canada and the US will remain strained in the near future.: 0.08
• An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
• Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
• Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
• A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
• The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.8
• Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78
• There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.58
• The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
• The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
• A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
• Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
• The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
• Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
• There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
• Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
• Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.78
• Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
• Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
• Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
• Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
• Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
• Russian Ka-52 pilots are employing specific attack profiles and targeting strategies.: 0.47
• Russian helicopters are operating in contested airspace and employing electronic warfare countermeasures.: 0.47
• The video is part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonstrate military strength and operational effectiveness.: 0.47
• Ukraine is attempting to persuade the US to resume intelligence and military support.: 0.78
• Ukraine is offering a partial ceasefire on long-range drone/missile strikes and Black Sea operations.: 0.72
• Ukraine is emphasizing President Zelensky's desire for a swift end to the war.: 0.65
• The proposed ceasefire agreement includes a halt to air attacks, naval operations, and attacks on energy/civilian infrastructure.: 0.67
• Trump stated that the provision of intelligence data to Ukraine has "almost been restored.": 0.82
• A Ukrainian attempt to unblock the SUDZHA-GORNAL road by attacking near the "Kolosok" camp with up to a company-sized assault group was completely destroyed, with the area remaining under Russian control.: 0.7
• Multiple bridges near Sudzha have been destroyed:0.7
• Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 2nd Knyazhy (destroyed by a FAB-3000 UMPK guided bomb).: 0.7
• Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 1st Knyazhy.: 0.7
• Bridge in Sudzha, near the destroyed Ukrainian convoy (corroborating previous reports).: 0.7
• Bridge east of Sudzha, behind the convoy, destroyed by an FPV drone strike on explosives.: 0.7
• Intense fighting in Tarasovka: 0.42
• Ukrainian forces (Signum unit of the 53rd Mechanized Brigade) shot down 9 Russian reconnaissance drones overnight: 3 Orlans, 3 Zalas, and 3 Supercams.: 0.5
• Two men claiming to have been evacuated from the Sudzha direction after being under "fascist occupation" for six months.: 0.5
• The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk.: 0.6
• The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk, using a drone.: 0.7
• An "Inokhodets" drone was used to kill up to 50 enemy personnel.: 0.25
• A fiber-optic controlled FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian soldier and ambushed an armored vehicle in the Kursk region.: 0.6
• A Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) raid on a gas platform near the Golitsynskoye gas field in the Black Sea on the night of March 7-8.: 0.63
• Two boats were supposedly destroyed.: 0.6
• Ukraine is prioritizing domestic weapons production, including rockets, drones, and long-range weapons, despite the continued value of foreign weapons.: 0.7
• Kremlin spokesman Peskov denies reports of US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia this week.: 0.7
• Damage to the roof of a building at the "Konservsushzavod" plant in Starodub, Bryansk region, Russia, after a UAV attack was confirmed.: 0.7
• Alawite leaders in Syria requested protection from Israel.: 0.3
• Mothers of deceased soldiers in Udmurtia are being sent to a monastery for rehabilitation.: 0.5
• A drone will be sent to soldiers.: 0.4
• Quad bikes are requested for soldiers.: 0.6
• An image of "I love combat training" has been posted.: 0.6
• Online weapons permits are now available in the Diia app.: 0.6
• Ukraine refuses a ceasefire on land, as this would allow Russia to recover, and instead offers one on air and naval forces.: 0.7
• Russian forces advanced 2 km on the eastern outskirts of Krasnoarmeysk, reaching Tarasovka.: 0.4
• The application facilitates improved control and tracking of civilian firearms, potentially impacting military strategies for maintaining public order.: 0.32
• The application poses geolocation risks if not adequately secured, which could indirectly affect military security.: 0.24
• The application could be used to assess and potentially mobilize armed civilians in support of military operations.: 0.16
• The application's permit ordering system enhances bureaucratic efficiency but has minimal direct impact on military operations.: 0.08
• Russian forces (Rubicon battle groups) are destroying Ukrainian logistics on the Sudzha-Yunakivka road.: 0.8
• Soldiers of the 9th regiment have retrieved the body of their commander, Sergey Chebnev, who died in August: 0.7
• 800 Russian soldiers used a gas pipeline to infiltrate Ukrainian positions near Sudzha.: 0.89
• Russian forces (Sever Group) liberated the settlements of Kositsa, Malaya Loknya, and Cherkasskoye Porechnoye: 0.75
• Russia claims to have destroyed more than 340 troops, two tanks, seven infantry fighting vehicles, five armoured personnel carriers, ten armoured fighting vehicles, 13 motor vehicles, three self-propelled artillery systems, eight field artillery guns, one AN/TPQ-50 counter-battery warfare station, an engineering vehicle, as well as six UAV command posts, and an ammunition depot. Two AFU servicemen surrendered.: 0.7
• Since the beginning of hostilities in Kursk direction, the AFU losses amounted to more than 66,270 troops, 389 tanks, 307 infantry fighting vehicles, 269 armoured personnel carriers, 2,173 armoured fighting vehicles, 2,383 motor vehicles, 539 artillery guns, 52 MLRS launchers, including 13 of HIMARS and seven of MLRS made by the USA, 25 anti-aircraft missile launchers, one self-propelled anti-aircraft system, ten transport-loading vehicles, 120 EW stations, 16 counter-battery warfare radars, ten air defence radars, 55 units of engineering and other materiel, including 23 counterobstacle vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle, five bridge launchers, one engineering reconnaissance vehicle as well as 14 armoured recovery
• Shaded attacks have been occurring across multiple fronts.: 0.8
• Russian forces destroyed two "Bogdana" self-propelled artillery units and one "Kozak" armored vehicle in the Kursk region.: 0.2
• US-Ukraine negotiations are "progressing".: 0.7
• A Ukrainian soldier was captured by the Azov Brigade.: 0.77
• militants of the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) have taken over 400 passengers hostage on a train in Pakistan.: 0.9
• Ukraine has been attempting to undermine Russia with propaganda since 2019.: 0.6
• There is an ongoing drone threat in the Kherson/Zaporizhzhia region.: 0.7
• The meeting is focused on securing resources for Ukraine's defense.: 0.32
• The meeting involves diplomatic negotiations related to

Response from 2025-03-13 09:13:50 (6h-3d old):

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 13, 2025, 09:12 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (08:43 UTC - 09:12 UTC)

1. CONFIRMED RUSSIAN CONTROL OF SUDZHA (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • MoD Russia (09:07 UTC): Claims Russian forces liberated THREE SETTLEMENTS in the KURSK REGION.
   • Colonelcassad (09:07 UTC): Claims Sud