Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 13, 2025, 13:12 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (12:42 UTC - 13:12 UTC)

NEGOTIATION AND CEASEFIRE UPDATES (HIGH PRIORITY, MIXED RELIABILITY):
- Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (12:46 UTC): Reports, citing Lukashenko, that Ukraine is unlikely to agree to a ceasefire. Claims Kursk Oblast will be "liberated" in a few days. States Russia cannot be pressured on the Ukraine issue, but the US has pressured Kyiv. Says the US has no plan for the conflict. Claims Belarus has not received "Oreshnik" missiles. Claims Putin will speak with Trump envoys on Thursday-Friday about a ceasefire.
  - Assessment: These are SIGNIFICANT CLAIMS, reflecting a POTENTIAL SHIFT IN DYNAMICS. The PREDICTED TIMELINE for "liberation" of KURSK OBLAST is VERY AMBITIOUS. The CLAIM OF US PRESSURE ON KYIV is NOTEWORTHY, suggesting POTENTIAL DIVERGENCE in US-UKRAINE STRATEGY. The CLAIM OF UPCOMING TALKS with "Trump envoys" is UNVERIFIED and REQUIRES EXTREME CAUTION.
- Rybar (12:46) [Video]: Russian Presidential Aide Ushakov states that Russia is not interested in a temporary ceasefire, only a long term one.
  - Assessment: Russia continues to insist on a long-term settlement.
- Оперативний ЗСУ (12:47 UTC, 13:11 UTC): Reports Putin will speak with Trump envoys about a ceasefire on Thursday-Friday. Also reports that the 30-day ceasefire proposal is hasty and needs revision to consider Russian interests.
  - Assessment: This PARTIALLY CORROBORATES the claim of UPCOMING TALKS, but STILL REQUIRES INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION. The REPORT OF RUSSIAN DISSATISFACTION with the CEASEFIRE PROPOSAL is CONSISTENT with PREVIOUS STATEMENTS.
- АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (12:47 UTC): Claims Ukraine will continue mobilization even during a 30-day ceasefire.
  - Assessment: This SUGGESTS A RUSSIAN NARRATIVE that a CEASEFIRE would be UNILATERALLY ADVANTAGEOUS to UKRAINE.
- STERNENKO (13:08 UTC): Quotes US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stating that a ceasefire is easier to monitor than ever due to surveillance technology.
  - Assessment: This HIGHLIGHTS THE POTENTIAL for TECHNOLOGICAL MONITORING of a CEASEFIRE, but DOES NOT ADDRESS THE POLITICAL WILL to ENFORCE IT.

ТАСС (13:03 UTC): Reports that Lavrov, Russia's Foreign Minister, is not interested in the position of EU countries on the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine.
- Assessment: Russia is downplaying the opinions of the EU, in favor of a settlement on its own terms.

CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE, KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):
- Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (12:41 UTC): Reports that Goncharovka, 2km from Sudzha towards the border, is generally controlled by Russian forces, but pockets of resistance are being suppressed.
  - Assessment: This FURTHER REINFORCES RUSSIAN CLAIMS of ADVANCES in the KURSK REGION, but ACKNOWLEDGES ONGOING FIGHTING.
- Colonelcassad (12:57 UTC): Claims Ukrainian forces were pushed out of Goncharovka. Claims Russian forces are breaking Ukrainian resistance and advancing towards the border. Claims advances in Sumy Oblast.
  - Assessment: This FURTHER REINFORCES RUSSIAN CLAIMS of ADVANCES in the KURSK REGION.
- НгП раZVедка (13:12 UTC): Claims Russian forces have taken Goncharovka and that Ukrainian forces are retreating towards Sumy Oblast.
  - Assessment: This is CONSISTENT with PREVIOUS CLAIMS, but REQUIRES INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION.
CLAIMED UKRAINIAN ADVANCE NEAR KRAMATORSK (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
- Дневник Десантника (12:54 UTC): Claims Russian forces "liberated" Novomarkovo near Kramatorsk, expanding the bridgehead beyond the Seversky Donets-Donbass canal. * Assessment: This is a new area.
OTHER CLAIMED/REPORTED MILITARY ACTIONS (MIXED RELIABILITY):
- Colonelcassad (12:47 UTC): Reports a "VT-40" FPV drone destroying a French Caesar 155mm self-propelled howitzer on the Rodinskoye-Pokrovsk road. Video purportedly shows the strike.
  - Assessment: This CLAIMS A SIGNIFICANT UKRAINIAN LOSS, but REQUIRES INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION.
- Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (13:07): Reports that the enemy is launching guided bombs.
  - Assessment: Alerts on new potential attacks.
OTHER:

РБК-Україна (12:49): Reports that Trump wants to produce "American champagne" and is threatening the EU with 200% tariffs.
- Assessment: Economic implications are relevant to ongoing military operations.
Офіс Генерального прокурора (13:00): Reports that a Kherson Regional Council deputy has been detained and accused of helping the enemy. * Оперативний ЗСУ (13:02): Reports that Ukraine has received approximately $1.7 billion as part of the G7 ERA initiative.
Офіс Генерального прокурора (13:00): Reports that a Kherson Regional Council deputy has been detained and accused of helping the enemy. * Оперативний ЗСУ (13:02): Reports that Ukraine has received approximately $1.7 billion as part of the G7 ERA initiative. * Assessment: Economic implications are relevant to ongoing military operations.

Updated Situation Summary

EXTREME PRIORITY:
- RUSSIAN FORCES APPEAR TO HAVE CAPTURED SUDZHA, with MULTIPLE REPORTS and VIDEO EVIDENCE of FLAG RAISINGS. The YUNAKIVKA-SUDZHA ROAD is reportedly under INTENSE RUSSIAN FIRE CONTROL, SEVERELY DISRUPTING UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS and REINFORCEMENT CAPABILITIES. REPORTS suggest a DISORGANIZED UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWAL, with ELITE UNITS potentially PRIORITIZED for EXTRACTION. RUSSIAN FORCES are CLAIMING FURTHER ADVANCES in the KURSK REGION, specifically near GONCHAROVKA.
- NEGOTIATIONS AND CEASEFIRE PROPOSALS are UNDER DISCUSSION, with CONFLICTING REPORTS about PARTICIPANTS and TERMS. RUSSIA is REJECTING a SHORT-TERM CEASEFIRE.
- CONTINUED INTENSE FIGHTING on the POKROVSK DIRECTION, with RUSSIAN FORCES using DRONES to SUPPORT OFFENSIVE ACTIONS.
HIGH PRIORITY:
RUSSIA CONTINUES TO EMPHASIZE ITS UNWILLINGNESS TO ACCEPT A TEMPORARY CEASEFIRE. * CLAIMED RUSSIAN STRIKE IN KHOTENI, SUMY. * Reports on CEASEFIRE NEGOTIATIONS involving MULTIPLE WESTERN POWERS, UKRAINE, and potentially RUSSIA.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
- Reports about a claimed Ukrainian advance near Kramatorsk.
- CONTINUED RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA efforts TARGETING UKRAINIAN ACTIONS and MORALE.
- UKRAINIAN MILITARY EFFORTS continue to FOCUS ON STRENGTHENING LOGISTICS, SUPPORTING TROOPS, and UTILIZING CIVILIAN DONATIONS.
- CLAIMED UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK on a RUSSIAN FACTORY in the KALUGA REGION.
- CONTINUED REPORTS of UKRAINIAN ARTILLERY SUCCESSES.

Updated Recommendations

CONFIRM AND RESPOND TO RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- Maintain all previous recommendations.
- URGENTLY VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIMS of CONTROL over GONCHAROVKA.
- ASSESS THE EXTENT of RUSSIAN ADVANCES in SUMY OBLAST.
- CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND IMPLEMENT PLANS to STABILIZE THE FRONT LINE, PREVENT FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCES, and REINFORCE UKRAINIAN POSITIONS in the REGION.
- EXPLORE OPTIONS for COUNTEROFFENSIVE ACTIONS to RETRIEVE LOST TERRITORY and DISRUPT RUSSIAN LOGISTICS.
- PRIORITIZE THE EVACUATION OF CIVILIANS from AREAS UNDER THREAT of RUSSIAN ADVANCE.
ADDRESS THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE RUSSIAN NEGOTIATING POSITION (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
- Maintain all previous recommendations.
- URGENTLY VERIFY reports of TALKS involving TRUMP ENVOYS.
- ASSESS THE FEASIBILITY of ACHIEVING A COMPREHENSIVE AGREEMENT that MEETS UKRAINIAN SECURITY NEEDS while ADDRESSING RUSSIAN DEMANDS.
- EXPLORE ALTERNATIVE DIPLOMATIC CHANNELS and POTENTIAL MEDIATORS to FACILITATE NEGOTIATIONS.
- DEVELOP STRATEGIES to COUNTER RUSSIAN PRESSURE and MAINTAIN INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT for UKRAINE.
MONITOR AND RESPOND TO FIGHTING ON THE POKROVSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
- Maintain all previous recommendations.
- VERIFY CLAIMS of RUSSIAN DRONE USE and UKRAINIAN TRENCH NETWORKS.
- DEVELOP COUNTERMEASURES to MITIGATE THE THREAT of RUSSIAN DRONES.
- ASSESS THE VULNERABILITY of UKRAINIAN POSITIONS to RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE ACTIONS.
INVESTIGATE AND RESPOND TO REPORTED FIGHTING NEAR KRAMATORSK (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- Gather additional information on the newly reported fighting.
- GATHER INTELLIGENCE on the REPORTED situation.
- VERIFY whether RUSSIAN FORCES have established a bridgehead.
- ASSESS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT of the attack on UKRAINIAN MILITARY CAPABILITIES.
MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DYNAMIC. The APPARENT CAPTURE OF SUDZHA, the RUSSIAN NEGOTIATING POSITION, and the CONTINUED FIGHTING on the POKROVSK DIRECTION and KURSK REGION present a COMPLEX AND EVOLVING SET OF CHALLENGES. RAPID DECISION-MAKING, EFFECTIVE RESOURCE ALLOCATION, and CLOSE COORDINATION WITH ALLIES are ESSENTIAL.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.7
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.62
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.93
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.65
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.45
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.25
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.65
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.61
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.68
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.44
Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
The new Canadian Prime Minister intends to take a firm stance against the US on trade issues.: 0.16
Trade relations between Canada and the US will remain strained in the near future.: 0.08
An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.74
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78
There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.58
The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.78
Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
Russian Ka-52 pilots are employing specific attack profiles and targeting strategies.: 0.47
Russian helicopters are operating in contested airspace and employing electronic warfare countermeasures.: 0.47
The video is part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonstrate military strength and operational effectiveness.: 0.47
Ukraine is attempting to persuade the US to resume intelligence and military support.: 0.78
Ukraine is offering a partial ceasefire on long-range drone/missile strikes and Black Sea operations.: 0.72
Ukraine is emphasizing President Zelensky's desire for a swift end to the war.: 0.65
The proposed ceasefire agreement includes a halt to air attacks, naval operations, and attacks on energy/civilian infrastructure.: 0.67
The agreement includes prisoner exchanges and the return of Ukrainian children.: 0.64
Trump stated that the provision of intelligence data to Ukraine has "almost been restored.": 0.82
A Ukrainian attempt to unblock the SUDZHA-GORNAL road by attacking near the "Kolosok" camp with up to a company-sized assault group was completely destroyed, with the area remaining under Russian control.: 0.7
Multiple bridges near Sudzha have been destroyed:0.7
Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 2nd Knyazhy (destroyed by a FAB-3000 UMPK guided bomb).: 0.7
Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 1st Knyazhy.: 0.7
Bridge in Sudzha, near the destroyed Ukrainian convoy (corroborating previous reports).: 0.7
Bridge east of Sudzha, behind the convoy, destroyed by an FPV drone strike on explosives.: 0.7
Intense fighting in Tarasovka: 0.42
Ukrainian forces (Signum unit of the 53rd Mechanized Brigade) shot down 9 Russian reconnaissance drones overnight: 3 Orlans, 3 Zalas, and 3 Supercams.: 0.5
Two men claiming to have been evacuated from the Sudzha direction after being under "fascist occupation" for six months.: 0.5
The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk.: 0.6
The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk, using a drone.: 0.7
An "Inokhodets" drone was used to kill up to 50 enemy personnel.: 0.25
A fiber-optic controlled FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian soldier and ambushed an armored vehicle in the Kursk region.: 0.6
A Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) raid on a gas platform near the Golitsynskoye gas field in the Black Sea on the night of March 7-8.: 0.63
Russian forces liberated the settlement of Gorky in the Donetsk People's Republic (DNR).: 0.86
drone operators of the 35th Army of the "Vostok" group are targeting Ukrainian infantry and equipment in the Polozhsky direction.: 0.84
drone operators of the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade of the "Vostok" group are continuing to destroy Ukrainian personnel in the Yuzhno-Donetsk direction.: 0.84
fierce fighting in the Novopavlovsk direction. units of the "Vostok" group broke through Ukrainian defenses on the outskirts of Volnoye Pole and are fighting closer to the center of the village.: 0.8
Ukrainian positions south of the village have been taken.: 0.72
Ukrainian forces are being pushed out of positions north and west of Burlatskoye.: 0.8
fierce fighting in the Dneproenergiya-Razdolnoye area.: 0.85
a Russian Su-34 destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border region.: 0.9
the Russian Air Force used a FAB-3000 bomb to destroy a Ukrainian fortified position in the Kursk direction.: 0.8
Ukrainian drones of the "Predators of Heights" unit of the 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade are operating in the Pokrovsk direction. 11 Russians and a car were hit.: 0.8
Russian forces have entered the outskirts of Sudzha.: 0.9999999999999
Ukrainian forces are surrounded from the east, north, and west, and that the only road for retreat is under fire control. chaos and panic among Ukrainian forces in Sudzha.: 0.8
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine claims that Ukrainian forces, in cooperation with various intelligence and security agencies, struck a number of strategic targets within Russia overnight on March 11th.: 0.9
Moscow Oil Refinery, the production capacity of the refinery, which reportedly supplies 40-50% of Moscow's diesel and gasoline needs, was hit.: 0.84
"Stalnoy Kon" (Steel Horse) Linear Production Dispatch Station, explosions at this station, which manages the "Druzhba" oil pipeline and supplies oil to the "Ust-Luga" seaport terminal, was hit.: 0.8
Reports of a Ukrainian drone strike in the Zaporizhia region are false.: 0.54
Russian air defenses in Moscow are being prioritized, leaving other areas vulnerable.: 0.42
Ukrainian drone strikes are a negotiating tactic.: 0.77
Russian forces claim the capture of Dmitryukov
RUSSIAN FORCES APPEAR TO HAVE CAPTURED SUDZHA**, with MULTIPLE REPORTS and VIDEO EVIDENCE of FLAG RAISINGS. The YUNAKIVKA-SUDZHA ROAD is reportedly under INTENSE RUSSIAN FIRE CONTROL, SEVERELY DISRUPTING UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS and REINFORCEMENT CAPABILITIES. REPORTS suggest a DISORGANIZED UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWAL, with ELITE UNITS potentially PRIORITIZED for EXTRACTION. : 1.0
RUSSIAN FORCES claim CONTINUED OFFENSIVE ACTIONS and UKRAINIAN LOSSES in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST. : 0.44
UKRAINIAN DRONE OPERATIONS are CONFIRMED in the KURSK REGION. : 0.6
Reports on CEASEFIRE NEGOTIATIONS involving MULTIPLE WESTERN POWERS, UKRAINE, and potentially RUSSIA. : 0.68
CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):* : 1.0
UK, FRANCE, and GERMANY helped the US and UKRAINE negotiate a CEASEFIRE. : 0.7
Claimed Russian advances in the KURSK REGION, with *REPORTED LIBERATION
RUSSIAN FORCES APPEAR TO HAVE CAPTURED SUDZHA**, with MULTIPLE REPORTS and VIDEO EVIDENCE of FLAG RAISINGS. The YUNAKIVKA-SUDZHA ROAD is reportedly under INTENSE RUSSIAN FIRE CONTROL, SEVERELY DISRUPTING UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS and REINFORCEMENT CAPABILITIES. REPORTS suggest a DISORGANIZED UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWAL, with ELITE UNITS potentially PRIORITIZED for EXTRACTION. RUSSIAN FORCES are CLAIMING FURTHER ADVANCES in the KURSK REGION, specifically near GONCHAROVKA. : 1.0
Russia is claiming that fighting continues in Goncharovka: 0.74
A Russian FPV drone destroyed a 155-mm wheeled SAU "Caesar" on the Rodinskoye-Pokrovsk road.: 0.8
Belarus is currently manufacturing launchers for the "Oreshnik" system and awaiting missiles from Russia, according to Lukashenko.: 0.67
Putin will speak with Trump's envoys regarding a ceasefire in Ukraine on Thursday-Friday, according to Lukashenko.: 0.52
Belarus has not yet received "Oreshnik" missiles from Russia, according to Lukashenko.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces will continue mobilization even during a 30-day ceasefire, according to the secretary of the Rada Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence.: 0.74
A 30-day ceasefire proposal is a hasty action and needs to be revised to take into account Russia's interests, according to Ushakov.: 0.79
Russian forces have liberated Novomarkovo near Kramatorsk.: 0.6
The Russian Air Force is using guided bombs in the Sumy region.: 0.6
The liberation of

Situation Report

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 13, 2025, 13:12 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (12:42 UTC - 13:12 UTC)

Updated Situation Summary

Updated Recommendations