Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 13, 2025, 08:12 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (07:43 UTC - 08:12 UTC)

KURSK REGION: REPORTED EVACUATION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
- TASS (08:11 UTC): Reports 90 people, mostly elderly, have been evacuated from the Sudzhansky district of Kursk Oblast, citing the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations (EMERCOM). Claims the evacuees were located in "occupied settlements."
- Assessment: This FURTHER REINFORCES the NARRATIVE of RUSSIAN ADVANCES and CONTROL in the KURSK REGION. The EVACUATION implies ONGOING INSTABILITY and POTENTIAL DANGER to CIVILIANS. The claim that they were in OCCUPIED SETTLEMENTS is SIGNIFICANT as it IMPLIES that UKRAINIAN FORCES previously CONTROLLED these AREAS. This SUPPORTS the PREVIOUS REPORTS of UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWAL and RUSSIAN ADVANCES around SUDZHA.
DONETSK REGION: CONTINUED RUSSIAN ARTILLERY STRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
- MoD Russia (07:43 UTC): Video report claiming "Giatsint-B" towed guns of the 1st Tank Army (Western Group of Forces) destroyed a Ukrainian command post (CP) and manpower.
- Video Analysis (MoD Russia): Shows towed artillery pieces (likely 152mm 2A36 Giatsint-B) firing. Shows impacts, but target verification is impossible.
- Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED RUSSIAN ARTILLERY FIRE, likely in the DONETSK REGION. The TARGET CLAIMS (CP and manpower) are UNVERIFIABLE from the PROVIDED FOOTAGE. This REINFORCES previous reports of ONGOING RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS in the REGION.
POKROVSK DIRECTION: CLAIMED DESTRUCTION OF RUSSIAN TOS-2 (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
- Оперативний ЗСУ (07:43 & 07:45): Claims the 68th Jaeger Brigade used FPV drones to destroy a Russian TOS-2 "Tosochka" multiple rocket launcher system (MLRS) in the Pokrovsk direction. Video evidence provided.
- Video Analysis (Оперативний ЗСУ): Shows drone footage, including thermal imagery. The TARGET is IDENTIFIABLE as a TOS-1A or, POSSIBLY, a TOS-2, but DEFINITIVE IDENTIFICATION is DIFFICULT. The FOOTAGE SHOWS the TARGET being HIT and CATCHING FIRE. SECONDARY EXPLOSIONS suggest the VEHICLE was LOADED WITH AMMUNITION.
- Assessment: This represents a POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT UKRAINIAN SUCCESS. The DESTRUCTION of a TOS SYSTEM (either -1A or -2) REMOVES a MAJOR THREAT due to its THERMOBARIC WEAPONRY. The VIDEO PROVIDES EVIDENCE, but ABSOLUTE CONFIRMATION of the TARGET TYPE is DIFFICULT.
OTHER REPORTS (LOW/MEDIUM PRIORITY):
- Liveuamap (07:46 UTC): Reports Russian airstrikes in various locations in Sumy, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, as well as in Kherson city.
- Сили оборони Півдня України (07:46 UTC): Reports on repelled Russian assaults in the Hulyaipole and Orikhiv directions, as well as widespread Russian drone and artillery/rocket attacks in southern Ukraine. Reports a civilian death in Kherson due to artillery fire. Claims 415 drone strikes and over 200 drops from UAVs in the past 24 hours. Reports use of 30 guided aerial bombs (KAB) and 39 unguided aerial rockets (NAR).
- Liveuamap (07:46 UTC, multiple): Reports on clashes in various locations, including near Vovchansk (Kharkiv axis), Petropavlivka (Kupyansk axis), Myrne (Lyman axis), Verkhnokamyanske (Sieversk axis), Chasiv Yar (Kramatorsk axis), Toretsk (Toretsk axis), Vodyane Druhe (Pokrovsk axis), Kostyantynopil (Novopavlivka axis), Pyatykhatky (Orikhiv axis), and Pryvilne (Huliaipole axis). Reports repelled 17 assaults by Ukrainian forces in Kursk.
- Два майора (07:48 UTC): Shares a video of captured Ukrainian soldiers, claiming they are from the 28th and 56th Brigades and were forcibly mobilized. (Propaganda)
- TASS (07:49): Reports NATO is creating additional security threats in the Arctic, with increasing military tensions.
- Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (07:49 UTC): Reports on the prevention of terrorist attacks in Chelyabinsk, with explosives disguised as gift sets.
- Сили оборони Півдня України (07:51 UTC): Claims destruction of 19 Shahed-131/136 drones in the Tavria operational zone. Reports Russian losses: 96 personnel, 15 vehicles, 5 motorcycles, 1 quad bike, 5 boats, 2 EW systems, 1 generator, 2 UAV antennas, 31 shelters/bunkers, and 1 observation post.
- АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (08:05 UTC): Video report claiming Russian forces targeted a Ukrainian vehicle in the Sumy region.
- Народная милиция ДНР (07:59 UTC): Video claiming the destruction of a Ukrainian "Kozak" armored vehicle.
- Воин DV (08:00 UTC): Video claiming the destruction of Ukrainian vehicles in the Polohy direction.
- Alex Parker Returns (08:00 UTC): Reports about a foiled terrorist attack.
- Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (08:07 UTC): Video report from Malaya Loknya, with Russian soldiers discussing their "Brest Fortress" defense and recovery of fallen comrades' bodies.
- БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (08:08 UTC): Video report of a drone dropping a munition on a Russian soldier, causing his RPG to ignite.
- Два майора (08:03 UTC): Reports on Ukrainian development of aerostat-based drone countermeasures.
- Сливочный каприз (08:09 UTC): Report on Ukrainian equipment losses, claiming the loss of a "brigade set" of armored vehicles for six consecutive months.
- Assessment: These reports show CONTINUED INTENSE FIGHTING across MULTIPLE FRONTS, with both sides claiming SUCCESSES and INFLICTING LOSSES. The REPORTS OF TERRORIST ATTACKS inside RUSSIA are CONCERNING and REQUIRE VERIFICATION.

Updated Situation Summary

EXTREME PRIORITY:
- CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the KURSK REGION, with CONFIRMED EVACUATIONS from SUDZHANSKY DISTRICT. This REINFORCES the NARRATIVE of RUSSIAN CONTROL in the AREA.
HIGH PRIORITY:
- CONTINUED INTENSE FIGHTING across MULTIPLE FRONTS, with both sides claiming SUCCESSES and INFLICTING LOSSES.
- REPORTS OF TERRORIST ATTACKS inside RUSSIA.
CONTINUED RUSSIAN ARTILLERY FIRE in DONETSK REGION.
- POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT UKRAINIAN SUCCESS in DESTROYING a RUSSIAN TOS SYSTEM in the POKROVSK DIRECTION (pending DEFINITIVE CONFIRMATION of TARGET TYPE).
LOW PRIORITY:
OTHER ISSUES REMAIN UNCHANGED.

Updated Recommendations

ADDRESS THE SITUATION IN THE KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
- MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS.
- MONITOR THE EVACUATION from SUDZHANSKY DISTRICT and GATHER INTELLIGENCE on the CIRCUMSTANCES and DESTINATION of the EVACUEES.
- ASSESS THE POTENTIAL for FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the REGION and ADJUST UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE POSITIONS accordingly.
CONFIRM DESTRUCTION OF RUSSIAN TOS SYSTEM (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- UTILIZE ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS (including HUMINT, SIGINT, and IMINT) to CONFIRM the TYPE OF SYSTEM DESTROYED (TOS-1A or TOS-2).
- ASSESS THE IMPACT of this LOSS on RUSSIAN CAPABILITIES in the POKROVSK DIRECTION.
MONITOR AND COUNTER RUSSIAN ARTILLERY FIRE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
- MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS on AIR DEFENSE and COUNTER-BATTERY FIRE.
- PRIORITIZE the PROTECTION OF CIVILIAN POPULATIONS from RUSSIAN ARTILLERY AND AIRSTRIKES.
INVESTIGATE REPORTS OF TERRORIST ATTACKS INSIDE RUSSIA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- COORDINATE with ALLIED INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES to VERIFY the REPORTS of PLANNED TERRORIST ATTACKS and IDENTIFY the PERPETRATORS.
MONITOR AND COUNTER UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
- MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS on SURVEILLANCE and AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY.
- PRIORITIZE the PROTECTION OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE from UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS.
ANALYZE UKRAINIAN DEVELOPMENT OF AEROSTAT-BASED DRONE COUNTERMEASURES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ANALYSIS):
- GATHER INTELLIGENCE on the CAPABILITIES, EFFECTIVENESS, and LIMITATIONS of this NEW SYSTEM.
- ASSESS THE POTENTIAL THREAT to RUSSIAN DRONE OPERATIONS and DEVELOP COUNTERMEASURES.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DYNAMIC. The CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the KURSK REGION, the INTENSE FIGHTING ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS, and the REPORTS OF TERRORIST ATTACKS all require IMMEDIATE AND CONTINUOUS ATTENTION. VERIFYING REPORTS, ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF MILITARY ACTIONS, and DEVELOPING EFFECTIVE COUNTERMEASURES are ESSENTIAL.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.78
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.85
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.88
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.999999999
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.82
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.999999999999999
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are related to weather conditions affecting air traffic control.: 0.02
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.44
Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.78
UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
The new Canadian Prime Minister intends to take a firm stance against the US on trade issues.: 0.16
Trade relations between Canada and the US will remain strained in the near future.: 0.08
An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.8
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78
There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.68
The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.88
Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
Russian Ka-52 pilots are employing specific attack profiles and targeting strategies.: 0.47
Russian helicopters are operating in contested airspace and employing electronic warfare countermeasures.: 0.47
The video is part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonstrate military strength and operational effectiveness.: 0.47
Ukraine is attempting to persuade the US to resume intelligence and military support.: 0.78
Ukraine is offering a partial ceasefire on long-range drone/missile strikes and Black Sea operations.: 0.72
Ukraine is emphasizing President Zelensky's desire for a swift end to the war.: 0.65
The proposed ceasefire agreement includes a halt to air attacks, naval operations, and attacks on energy/civilian infrastructure.: 0.67
Trump stated that the provision of intelligence data to Ukraine has "almost been restored.": 0.93
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian mortar position near Konstantinovka using FPV drones.: 0.8
The destruction of the mortar position indicates ongoing counter-battery warfare.: 0.8
Russian forces continue offensive operations near Pokrovsk, reportedly destroying NATO equipment.: 0.75
The reports on destroyed NATO equipment are likely exaggerated for propaganda purposes.: 0.3
The video evidence is inconclusive and needs further verification.: 0.25
The destruction of NATO-supplied equipment, if confirmed, would be a significant tactical victory for Russia.: 0.6
Russian soldiers captured a US-supplied Humvee.: 0.82
The captured Humvee is of little strategic importance.: 0.44
The video is likely intended for propaganda purposes.: 0.58
The US will assess Ukraine's willingness to make concessions to Russia during the upcoming Saudi Arabia meeting.: 0.88
US will increase pressure on Ukraine to negotiate.: 0.44
The Russian government claims 4800 Ukrainian casualties have been inflicted in the LPR.: 0.1
Two civilians have been killed, and seven injured due to Russian attacks in the Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporozhzhia, and Kharkiv regions.: 0.65
Russian forces may be using North Korean soldiers.: 0.1
Russian forces used fiber-optic controlled FPV drones.: 0.66
The video aims to create a narrative of Ukrainian military success.: 0.48
The video is part of a coordinated information warfare campaign to undermine support for Ukraine.: 0.32
The video seeks to weaken international coalition unity by creating doubts about Western allies' motivations.: 0.08
Russian forces are consolidating their control in the Kursk Oblast region and preparing for a potential Ukrainian counter-offensive.: 0.83
The map is intentionally designed to overstate Russian gains and demoralize Ukrainian forces and their allies.: 0.27
: 0.1
Ukrainian forces are actively contesting control in the 'grey zone' settlements, leading to a fluid and dynamic front line.: 0.04
Russian forces liberated Pravda, Kositsa, Kubatkin, Mikhailovka, Martynovka, Malaya Loknya, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Cherkasskaya Konopelka: 0.6
Russian airborne units are clearing forests and strongholds in the direction of Dmitryukov Makhnovka.: 0.5
Active assault operations near Melovoye, Ivashkovsky, Guyevo, and Makhnovka.: 0.5
Europe is searching for a Starlink alternative.: 0.6
Russia may be using a gas pipeline near Sudzha.: 0.4
Russian forces captured Ivashkovsky.: 0.88
Russian naval forces are operating in the Black Sea: 0.5
2 Shahed drones were destroyed overnight.: 0.7
Russia shot down 9 drones over Russian regions.:
A Ukrainian drone was used in an attempt to down a Russian drone: 0.6
A Ukranian BMC Kirpi was captured.: 0.4
Guided Aerial Bomb launch on Kharkiv.: 0.8
40 people were injured in an attack on Velikie Kopany.: 0.7
Russia destroyed a drone control center in Zaporizhzhia.: 0.78
Multiple bridges near Sudzha have been destroyed: 0.68
A bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of
The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.68
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.62
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.99999999999999
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.99
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.65
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.45
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.25
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.65
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.57
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.68
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone

Situation Report

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 13, 2025, 08:12 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (07:43 UTC - 08:12 UTC)

Updated Situation Summary

Updated Recommendations