Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (07:10 UTC) & Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (07:12 UTC) & РБК-Україна (07:12 UTC): Reports Russia launched a ballistic missile (Iskander-M) from Kursk Oblast and 117 attack drones (Shahed and others, including 38 decoy drones). Claims 74 attack drones were shot down across multiple regions (Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Chernihiv, Kyiv, Khmelnytskyi, Vinnytsia, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, and Mykolaiv). Reports damage in Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Odesa, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS a MASSIVE, MULTI-DIRECTIONAL, AND COORDINATED RUSSIAN ATTACK targeting a WIDE SWATH OF UKRAINIAN TERRITORY. The use of a BALLISTIC MISSILE alongside a LARGE NUMBER OF DRONES, including DECOYS, indicates a SOPHISTICATED TACTIC aimed at OVERWHELMING UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSES. The CLAIMED SHOOTDOWN RATE of 74/79 (93%) of ATTACK DRONES is HIGH, but even the SMALL NUMBER that GOT THROUGH caused DAMAGE IN MULTIPLE REGIONS. This DEMONSTRATES THE CONTINUED THREAT of RUSSIAN AIR ATTACKS and the NEED FOR SUSTAINED AND ENHANCED AIR DEFENSE CAPABILITIES.
CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Сливочный каприз (06:57 UTC): Claims Russian light infantry units attacked in Basovka, Sumy Oblast (near Sudzha), taking new positions in the central part of the village under Ukrainian fire. Claims a 3km expansion of the zone of control in Sumy Oblast. Provides coordinates (51.19449, 35.08359).
Assessment: This REINFORCES previous reports of CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the SUDZHA/BASOVKA AREA. The CLAIM OF ADVANCES IN BASOVKA (within SUMY OBLAST) represents a POTENTIAL ESCALATION and EXPANSION OF THE CONFLICT ZONE. The PROVIDED COORDINATES, if accurate, allow for GEOLOCATION AND VERIFICATION. The CLAIM OF EXPANDING THE ZONE OF CONTROL highlights the DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE FRONTLINE. URGENT VERIFICATION REMAINS CRITICAL.
UKRAINIAN ATACMS DEPLETION FURTHER CONFIRMED (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (06:59 UTC) & РБК-Україна (06:49 UTC) & Дневник Десантника (07:06 UTC): Reiterate the report from AP that Ukraine has completely exhausted its supply of ATACMS missiles, with less than 40 missiles supplied and used up by late January. Дневник Десантника suggests Ukraine will compensate with more long-range drones.
Assessment: This FURTHER SOLIDIFIES the CONFIRMATION of UKRAINIAN ATACMS DEPLETION. The CONSISTENCY ACROSS MULTIPLE SOURCES, including UKRAINIAN SOURCES, INCREASES CONFIDENCE. This SEVERELY LIMITSUKRAINE'S LONG-RANGE STRIKE CAPABILITY and REINFORCES THE URGENCY of SEEKING ALTERNATIVES AND RESUPPLY. The suggestion of increased drone usage highlights a likely SHIFT IN UKRAINIAN TACTICS.
OTHER REPORTS OF NOTE (LOW/MEDIUM PRIORITY):
Воин DV (07:12 UTC): Claims destruction of Ukrainian personnel by drone operators (archival footage).
Alex Parker Returns (06:44 UTC): Reports that Ukrainian POWs were shot with a shot to the head, stating they were Georgian.
Оперативний ЗСУ (06:44 UTC): Claims a drone attack on the Petrovskoye linear production department of main gas pipelines in Saratov Oblast, Russia.
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (06:46 UTC): Reports a drone strike on an oil industry facility in Saratov Oblast.
* Assessment: These reports indicate CONTINUED FIGHTING and UKRAINIAN STRIKES WITHIN RUSSIA.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
CONFIRMED MASSIVE RUSSIAN DRONE AND MISSILE ATTACK targeting a WIDE SWATH OF UKRAINIAN TERRITORY. HIGH CLAIMED SHOOTDOWN RATE, but DAMAGE REPORTED IN MULTIPLE REGIONS. DEMONSTRATES CONTINUED THREAT and NEED FOR ENHANCED AIR DEFENSE.
HIGH PRIORITY:
CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCES reported in the SUDZHA/BASOVKA AREA, with CLAIMS OF ADVANCES WITHIN SUMY OBLAST. URGENT VERIFICATION REQUIRED.
FURTHER CONFIRMATION of UKRAINIAN ATACMS DEPLETION, SEVERELY LIMITINGLONG-RANGE STRIKE CAPABILITY.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
UKRAINIAN REPORTS of a DRONE ATTACK inside SARATOV OBLAST.
REPORTED KILLING OF UKRAINIAN POWS.
Updated Recommendations
MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR AIR DEFENSES (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS, including MAXIMUM ALERT STATUS for ALL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS across ALL THREATENED REGIONS.
PRIORITIZE the PROTECTION OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, POPULATION CENTERS, and MILITARY ASSETS.
CONTINUOUSLY MONITOR for FURTHER RUSSIAN AIR ATTACKS, given the SCALE AND INTENSITY of the RECENT OFFENSIVE.
ASSESS THE EFFECTIVENESS of CURRENT AIR DEFENSE DEPLOYMENTS and ADJUST AS NEEDED to COUNTER RUSSIAN TACTICS, including the USE OF DECOY DRONES.
EXPEDITE the INTEGRATION OF ANY NEW AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS or TECHNOLOGIES.
ADDRESS THE RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN THE KURSK/SUMY REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS, including URGENT DEPLOYMENT OF INTELLIGENCE ASSETS, REINFORCEMENT OF UKRAINIAN DEFENSES, DEVELOPMENT OF CONTINGENCY PLANS, and TARGETING OF ADVANCING RUSSIAN FORCES.
URGENTLY VERIFY the CLAIM OF RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN BASOVKA, SUMY OBLAST. This is a POTENTIAL ESCALATION that requires IMMEDIATE CONFIRMATION OR REFUTATION.
ASSESS THE IMPACT of the REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES on UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE POSITIONS and LOGISTICS IN SUMY OBLAST.
DEVELOP AND IMPLEMENT PLANS to COUNTERACT RUSSIAN ADVANCES and PREVENT FURTHER LOSS OF TERRITORY in SUMY OBLAST.
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS, including URGENTLY REQUESTING ADDITIONAL SUPPLIES from ALLIES and EXPLORING ALTERNATIVE LONG-RANGE STRIKE OPTIONS.
ACCELERATE the DEVELOPMENT AND DEPLOYMENT of ALTERNATIVE LONG-RANGE STRIKE CAPABILITIES, including DRONES, as suggested by Дневник Десантника.
RE-EVALUATE TARGETING PRIORITIES to MAXIMIZE THE EFFECTIVENESS of REMAINING LONG-RANGE WEAPONS.
INVESTIGATE REPORTED KILLING OF UKRAINIAN POWS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Maintain all previous recommendations, including LAUNCHING AN IMMEDIATE AND THOROUGH INVESTIGATION, GATHERING ALL AVAILABLE EVIDENCE, and COORDINATING WITH INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS.
The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND DYNAMIC. The CONFIRMED MASSIVE RUSSIAN DRONE AND MISSILE ATTACK demonstrates RUSSIA'S CONTINUED ABILITY AND WILLINGNESS to TARGET UKRAINIAN TERRITORY on a LARGE SCALE. The CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the KURSK/SUMY REGION and the CONFIRMED DEPLETION OF UKRAINIAN ATACMS MISSILESINCREASE THE PRESSURE ON UKRAINIAN FORCES. RAPID RESPONSE, EFFECTIVE RESOURCE ALLOCATION, and CONSTANT VIGILANCE are ESSENTIAL.
[Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs]
Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:
The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.78
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.72
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.99999999999999999999999999999
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.65
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.999999999
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.82
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.999999999999999
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are related to weather conditions affecting air traffic control.: 0.02
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.44
Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
The new Canadian Prime Minister intends to take a firm stance against the US on trade issues.: 0.16
Trade relations between Canada and the US will remain strained in the near future.: 0.08
An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.8
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78
There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.58
The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.78
Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
Russian Ka-52 pilots are employing specific attack profiles and targeting strategies.: 0.47
Russian helicopters are operating in contested airspace and employing electronic warfare countermeasures.: 0.47
The video is part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonstrate military strength and operational effectiveness.: 0.47
Ukraine is attempting to persuade the US to resume intelligence and military support.: 0.78
Ukraine is offering a partial ceasefire on long-range drone/missile strikes and Black Sea operations.: 0.72
Ukraine is emphasizing President Zelensky's desire for a swift end to the war.: 0.65
The proposed ceasefire agreement includes a halt to air attacks, naval operations, and attacks on energy/civilian infrastructure.: 0.67
The agreement includes prisoner exchanges and the return of Ukrainian children.: 0.64
Trump stated that the provision of intelligence data to Ukraine has "almost been restored.": 0.93
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian mortar position near Konstantinovka using FPV drones.: 0.8
The destruction of the mortar position indicates ongoing counter-battery warfare.: 0.8
Russian forces continue offensive operations near Pokrovsk, reportedly destroying NATO equipment.: 0.75
The reports on destroyed NATO equipment are likely exaggerated for propaganda purposes.: 0.3
The video evidence is inconclusive and needs further verification.: 0.25
The destruction of NATO-supplied equipment, if confirmed, would be a significant tactical victory for Russia.: 0.6
Russian soldiers captured a US-supplied Humvee.: 0.72
The captured Humvee is of little strategic importance.: 0.44
The video is likely intended for propaganda purposes.: 0.48
The US will assess Ukraine's willingness to make concessions to Russia during the upcoming Saudi Arabia meeting.: 0.88
US will increase pressure on Ukraine to negotiate.: 0.44
The Russian government claims 4800 Ukrainian casualties have been inflicted in the LPR.: 0.1
Two civilians have been killed, and seven injured due to Russian attacks in the Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporozhzhia, and Kharkiv regions.: 0.65
Russian forces may be using North Korean soldiers.: 0.1
Russian forces used fiber-optic controlled FPV drones.: 0.66
The video aims to create a narrative of Ukrainian military success.: 0.48
The video is part of a coordinated information warfare campaign to undermine support for Ukraine.: 0.32
The video seeks to weaken international coalition unity by creating doubts about Western allies' motivations.: 0.08
Russian forces are consolidating their control in the Kursk Oblast region and preparing for a potential Ukrainian counter-offensive.: 0.83
The map is intentionally designed to overstate Russian gains and demoralize Ukrainian forces and their allies.: 0.27
: 0.1
Ukrainian forces are actively contesting control in the 'grey zone' settlements, leading to a fluid and dynamic front line.: 0.04
