Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 13, 2025, 01:12 UTC
Key Changes and Developments (00:42 UTC - 01:12 UTC)
NEW UKRAINIAN DRONE CAPABILITY (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Colonelcassad (01:03 UTC): Shares a video purportedly showing a new Ukrainian "mother drone" developed by Brave1 Autonomous Engineering R&D Ukraine. The drone is claimed to be capable of carrying up to six FPV drones and acting as a relay for communication between operators and FPV drones. The video shows the drone taking off with one FPV drone.
Assessment: This report, if accurate, represents a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT in UKRAINIAN DRONE CAPABILITIES. A "mother drone" capable of carrying and deploying multiple FPV drones would INCREASE THE RANGE AND EFFECTIVENESS of UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS. The REPEATER FUNCTION would also IMPROVE COMMUNICATION in CONTESTED ENVIRONMENTS. The video, however, only shows a SINGLE FPV DRONE, raising QUESTIONS about the ACTUAL CARRYING CAPACITY. FURTHER VERIFICATION AND ANALYSIS are NEEDED.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (01:06 UTC): Reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the north-eastern direction. Warns of a threat of the use of air-launched weapons for frontline areas.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (01:06 UTC): Reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in Sumy Oblast.
РБК-Україна (01:07 UTC): Confirms a report on a tactical aviation in the Sumy Oblast, saying the Ukrainian Air Force has launched bombs.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS INCREASED RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY in the NORTHEAST, posing a SIGNIFICANT THREAT to FRONTLINE AREAS, particularly in SUMY OBLAST. The USE OF GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS indicates a HIGH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGE. IMMEDIATE ACTION is REQUIRED to PROTECT CIVILIAN POPULATIONS and MILITARY POSITIONS.
UKRAINIAN POW CLAIMS FRIENDLY FIRE AND RUSSIAN ASSISTANCE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
ТАСС (01:10 UTC): Shares a video of a Ukrainian soldier, who says he tried to evacuate from the front lines. The soldier claims he was injured by friendly fire and rescued by Russian soldiers.
Assessment:REQUIRES VERIFICATION. The video could have been altered and could be a RUSSIAN INFORMATION OPERATION aimed at undermining Ukrainian military morale and unity. It's important to verify the claims of friendly fire, which, if true, suggest Ukrainian communication issues.
"IVAN DA MADINA" SERIES AND RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (00:44 UTC): Reports on a new series "Ivan da Madina" which caused controversy. The text claims the series is counter-propaganda, promoting "inter-ethnic harmony".
Assessment: This is UNRELATED TO MILITARY OPERATIONS, but highlights Russian INFORMATION OPERATIONS to push their message.
Colonelcassad (00:45 UTC): Reports on a Russian soldier surviving multiple drone attacks and a landmine.
Assessment: This DOES NOT SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER the OVERALL MILITARY SITUATION. The REPORT is LIKELY INTENDED for PROPAGANDA PURPOSES, to BOOST RUSSIAN MORALE and PORTRAY UKRAINIAN FORCES as INEFFECTIVE.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
WIDESPREAD, MULTI-DIRECTIONAL DRONE ATTACK CONTINUES ACROSS UKRAINE, with CONFIRMED ACTIVITY in MULTIPLE OBLASTS and a NEW THREAT to VINNYTSIA OBLAST. KYIV AIR RAID HAS BEEN CALLED OFF.
HIGH PRIORITY:
ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED HIGH-PRIORITY ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.
CONFIRMED INCREASED RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY in the NORTHEAST, with GUIDED AERIAL BOMB ATTACKS in SUMY OBLAST.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
RUSSIAN OFFICIAL COMMENTARY on the PEACE PROCESS, suggesting a WILLINGNESS TO NEGOTIATE but also UNCERTAINTY about RUSSIAN INTENTIONS.
REPORTED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE ACTIVITY on the KUPYANSK FRONT, with CLAIMS OF DESTROYING UKRAINIAN FORTIFICATIONS.
REPORTED NEW UKRAINIAN "MOTHER DRONE" CAPABILITY, requiring FURTHER VERIFICATION AND ANALYSIS.
UKRAINIAN SOLDIER CLAIMS FRIENDLY FIRE AND RUSSIAN ASSISTANCE.
ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED MEDIUM-PRIORITY ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.
LOW PRIORITY:
ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED LOW-PRIORITY ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.
"IVAN DA MADINA" SERIES AND RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA.
RUSSIAN SOLDIER SURVIVED DRONE ATTACKS AND LANDMINE.
Updated Recommendations
MAINTAIN MAXIMUM ALERT FOR AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
MAINTAIN MAXIMUM ALERT STATUS for ALL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS across UKRAINE, with PRIORITY on AREAS IDENTIFIED by the LATEST DRONE MOVEMENT REPORTS. This includes, but is not limited to, KHARKIV, POLTAVA, DNIPROPETROVSK, SUMY, CHERNIHIV, KYIV, CHERKASY, KIROVOHRAD, and VINNYTSIA OBLASTS.
DEPLOY MOBILE AIR DEFENSE UNITS as needed to INTERCEPT INCOMING DRONES, particularly those approaching MAJOR CITIES and CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE.
UTILIZE ELECTRONIC WARFARE SYSTEMS to DISRUPT DRONE CONTROL where possible.
CONTINUE TO ISSUE PUBLIC WARNINGS and INSTRUCTIONS to CIVILIANS in THREATENED AREAS, urging them to TAKE SHELTER.
SPECIFICALLY, INCREASE ALERTNESS in VINNYTSIA OBLAST due to the NEWLY ISSUED THREAT WARNING.
ANALYZE DRONE TRAJECTORIES to ANTICIPATE POTENTIAL TARGETS and ADJUST AIR DEFENSE DEPLOYMENTS accordingly.
ADDRESS THE THREAT OF RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES IN THE NORTHEAST (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
ISSUE WARNINGS to CIVILIANS in FRONTLINE AREAS, particularly in SUMY OBLAST, to TAKE SHELTER.
DISPERSE MILITARY ASSETS where possible to REDUCE VULNERABILITY to AIRSTRIKES.
INCREASE SURVEILLANCE to DETECT AND TRACKINCOMING AIRCRAFT and GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS.
INVESTIGATE THE REPORTED UKRAINIAN "MOTHER DRONE" (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
GATHER INTELLIGENCE to VERIFY THE EXISTENCE AND CAPABILITIES of the REPORTED "MOTHER DRONE".
ANALYZE THE VIDEO FOOTAGE provided by RUSSIAN SOURCES to ASSESS ITS CREDIBILITY.
DEVELOP COUNTERMEASURES to ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL NEW THREAT.
MONITOR THE KUPYANSK FRONT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):
INCREASE SURVEILLANCE of the KUPYANSK FRONT to VERIFY reported RUSSIAN ACTIVITY and ASSESS THE EXTENT OF DAMAGE to UKRAINIAN FORTIFICATIONS.
BE PREPARED TO RESPOND to FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the AREA.
ANALYZE RUSSIAN PEACE PROCESS COMMENTARY (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):
CAREFULLY ANALYZERUSSIAN OFFICIAL STATEMENTS on the PEACE PROCESS to DISCERN RUSSIAN INTENTIONS and RED LINES.
ASSESS THE CREDIBILITY of the LEAKED DOCUMENT and its POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS for NEGOTIATIONS.
DEVELOP STRATEGIES to COUNTER POTENTIAL RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA or DISINFORMATION related to the PEACE PROCESS.
INVESTIGATE THE REPORTS OF THE UKRAINIAN POW (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
VERIFY THE IDENTITY of the INDIVIDUAL in the VIDEO.
INVESTIGATE CLAIMS of FRIENDLY FIRE.
ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND DYNAMIC. The CONTINUED WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK, with SHIFTING TRAJECTORIES and a NEW THREAT to VINNYTSIA OBLAST, poses a MAJOR AND IMMEDIATE THREAT. The CONFIRMED RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY in the NORTHEAST, with GUIDED AERIAL BOMB ATTACKS in SUMY OBLAST, adds ANOTHER LAYER OF URGENCY. The REPORTED NEW UKRAINIAN DRONE CAPABILITY requires IMMEDIATE ATTENTION. RAPID AND COORDINATED ACTION is ESSENTIAL.
Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:
The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.64
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.62
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.55
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.9998
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.87
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.65
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.3
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.25
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.78
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.75
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.81
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.68
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.68
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.74
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are related to weather conditions affecting air traffic control.: 0.02
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.44
Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
A Ukrainian drone was used in an attempt to down a Russian drone: 0.6
A Ukranian BMC Kirpi was captured.: 0.4
Guided Aerial Bomb launch on Kharkiv.: 0.8
40 people were injured, and 11 were killed by an attack on Dobropillia.: 0.85
Telegram was blocked in Dagestan and Chechnya.: 0.7
Netherlands is planning to invest in Ukraine.: 0.6
A bridge between Myropillia and Hornal may have been destroyed.: 0.4
Russian forces almost liberated Novenkoye, and are approaching Basovka.: 0.5
Intense fighting in Sudzha confirmed, ongoing strikes and civilian impact a major concern.: 0.8.
Ukrainian forces gained advantage in several areas, repulsing Russian attacks and conducting counterattacks.: 0.3
Russian forces claim destruction of a Ukrainian drone operator with FAB-3000.: 0.5
There is a major drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions with 73 confirmed downed and 37 lost: 0.77
There are reports of drone attacks on Russian territory, targeting an enterprise in Cheboksary: 0.6
Fighting has begun for the village of Dneproenergiya in the south of the DPR: 0.2
An American MRAP International MaxxPro was destroyed by FPV drones in the Pokrovsk direction: 0.1
A drone attacked a spirit plant in Buturlinovka, Voronezh Oblast: 0.2
A drone attacked an oil depot at the "Burevestnik Combine" in Cheboksary overnight: 0.59
Russian forces attacked with 119 drones overnight, including decoy drones.: 0.7
Ukrainian air defenses shot down 73 of the 119 drones.: 0.9
Donetsk, Kharkiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia regions were affected by the drone attack.: 0.8
Ukrainian forces are facing a critical threat due to Elon Musk's statement and potential disruption of Starlink services.: 0.87
Fighting is intensifying in the Kursk, Donetsk, and Chasov Yar directions.: 0.8
Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Dovzhyk, Kozacha Lopan of Kharkiv region, Leontovychi, Voskresenka, Novopil of Donetsk region, Hulyaypole, Zaliznychne, Novoyakovlivka, Pavlivka, Stepove of Zaporizhzhia region, Kozatske of Kherson region: 0.77
At Kharkiv axis clashes yesterday near Vovchansk and towards Petro-Ivanivka: 0.76
At Kupyansk axis clashes yesterday near Kindrashivka, Lozova, Stepova Novoselivka, Nova Kruhlyakivka and Zahryzove: 0.82
At Lyman axis clashes yesterday near Novomykhaylivka, Nove, Myrne, Kolodyaziv, Yampolivka and Zelena Dolyna: 0.73
At Kramatorsk axis clashes yesterday near Chasiv Yar and Bila Hora: 0.83
At Toretsk axis clashes yesterday near Druzhba and Toretsk: 0.91
At Pokrovsk axis clashes yesterday near Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Andriyivka, Oleksandropil, Pokrovsk, Serhiyivka, Novooleksandrivka, Bohdanivka, Tarasivka, Lysivka, Zelenyy Kut and Ulakly: 0.96
At Novopavlivka axis clashes yesterday near Kostyantynopil and Burlatske: 0.72
At Orikhiv axis clashes yesterday near Pyatykhatky, Stepove, Scherbaka and Kamyanske: 0.9
At Huliaipole axis clashes yesterday near Charivne: 0.8
In Kursk region Ukrainian forces have repelled 44 Russian army assaults: 0.78
US is reportedly pushing for softer wording on Russia in G7 communiqué, opposing a monitoring group for Russia's "shadow fleet".: 0.9
Ukraine is reportedly preparing a third attack on the Crimean Bridge.: 0.7
The Kremlin is reportedly preparing for a war with the West.: 0.62
Intense fighting reported across multiple fronts, with high casualties and equipment losses.: 0.94
Ukrainian forces reportedly repelled numerous attacks, particularly in the Pokrovsk and Kursk directions.: 0.86
Significant use of guided aerial bombs (KABs) by Russian forces.: 0.8
Ukrainian forces are adapting to new roles, such as drone operation, for logistics and medical assistance.: 0.6
The Ukrainian front may collapse if Starlink systems are turned off.: 0.87
Elon Musk is considering or has already limited Starlink access for the Ukrainian military.: 0.9
The message is intended to demoralize Ukrainian forces and create uncertainty about their communication capabilities.: 0.28
The message is a form of psychological warfare aimed at influencing public opinion regarding the conflict in Ukraine.: 0.16
The message is an attempt to pressure the Ukrainian government to negotiate a settlement with Russia.: 0.08
The number of wounded in Druzhkivka has grown from 7 to 12 after the attacks: 0.7
Russian forces attacked Kharkiv with drones: 0.9
The US continues to provide intelligence to Ukraine, but only for defensive operations: 0.6
Russian forces attacked the educational facility in Balakliia: 0.7
Russian forces attacked a children's institution in Kochotok: 0.6
Guided aerial bombs (KABs) were used on Sumy: 0.6
Russian forces successfully destroyed a Ukrainian mortar near Konstantinopol: 0.48
Reports of the logistical situation in the Kursk region is very bad.: 0.9
Sudzha: 0.8
Reports of widespread Russian drone and missile strikes continue, confirmed.: 0.9
CLAIMED UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACKS near POKROVSK and TORETSK, potentially SLOWING DOWN the RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE. REQUIRES VERIFICATION. : 0.7
Confirmed Russian airstrike on claimed Ukrainian command post in Huliaipole.: 0.95
POTENTIAL HALT OF US MILITARY AID (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, NEEDS VERIFICATION):* POTENTIALLY CRITICAL IMPACT on UKRAINIAN MILITARY CAPABILITIES. : 0.99
*UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS FORCIBLY DEPLOYED AFTER REFUSING TO FIGHT (HIGH PRIORITY).**: 0.8
*New type of Ukrainian drone reported, controlled by fiber-optic cable.: 0.9
*New Russian drone "Avatar" reported.: 0.7
*Reports of heavy Russian casualties (Cemetery report).: 0.8
*German plant in Ukraine.: 0.6
*Reports on a Russian missile strike on the 168th reserve battalion.: 0.6
*Ukrainian forces are reporting progress in Toretsk.: 0.8
Verify and respond to the report of the Russian advance near Seversk.: 0.7
REPORTED UKRAINIAN NAVAL DRONE ATTACK on RUSSIAN GAS PLATFORM in the BLACK SEA, potentially using a NEW MOTHER DRONE CAPABILITY.: 0.88
Expanded Drone Threat.: 0.76
Attack in Petropavlovka.: 0.8
Trump is considering making mineral deals to continue supplying Ukraine.: 0.7
Trump wants Ukraine to cede territory to Russia in exchange for US military aid and intelligence sharing.: 0.32
Trump is using the mineral deal as leverage to pressure Ukraine into making concessions in negotiations with Russia.: 0.24
Trump wants Zelensky to resign or hold elections as a condition for continued US support.: 0.24
An EU summit statement on Ukraine, approved by 26 countries, has no legal force.: 0.75
Trump ordered the cessation of critical aid for F-16 JAMMING SYSTEMS in Ukraine: 0.79
Russian recruitment efforts are focused on drone operators and EW specialists.: 0.7
Russian forces are completing the defeat of Ukrainian forces near Martynovka: 0.5
Russian forces control the southern outskirts of Konstantinopol.: 0.7
The SAMP/T air defense system deployed in Ukraine may be experiencing significant issues, potentially reducing its effectiveness against ballistic missiles.: 0.65
There is an active air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.95
There is an increased threat of enemy tactical aviation activity in the south-eastern direction.: 0.9
Only the outskirts of Andreyevka are captured.: 0.7
Russian forces liberated Lebedevka and Novenkoye.: 0.52
US will not resume aid to Ukraine after a mineral deal: 0.77
Russian forces liberated houses in Nikolaevka and Staraya Sorochina equipped as firing positions by Ukrainian militants and foreign mercenaries.: 0.6
US technical support and maintenance of F-16s transferred to Ukraine has stopped.: 0.7
The militarization of youth is occurring in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including the use of the "Yunarmiya" youth military organization.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces lost more than 50 personnel during the "liberation" of Konstantinopol in the DPR.: 0.42
The US has partially ceased supporting Ukrainian F-16s, but only for the radar jamming systems.: 0.85
Russian forces claim they captured Lebedevka: 0.7
Repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation.: 0.7
Russian drone strike killed 2 and injured 1: 0.9
Russian forces claim advances in Kursk Oblast: 0.8
Russian forces have practically encircled Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast.: 0.5
A Russian "Tor" was destroyed: 0.42
9 vehicles were destroyed in Sudzha.: 0.7
A drone struck a house in Bilenke, injuring a young man.: 0.8
Building damaged by shelling/airstrike.: 0.48
Image is being used for propaganda purposes.: 0.12
The area requires humanitarian aid and civilian evacuation.: 0.12
Building damaged due to non-military cause (e.g., earthquake, structural failure).: 0.08
China, Russia and Iran are holding a joint naval exercise.: 0.6
Ukrainian drones have been destroyed over Belgorod and Kursk.: 0.5
Launches of guided aerial bombs on Donetsk.: 0.6
A high-speed target is heading towards Poltava.: 0.35
Russian forces advanced near Pyatikhatki and Shcherbaki: 0.4
Ukrainian forces are resisting, using artillery and drones: 0.5
Russian air force and "Grad" rocket systems are targeting Ukrainian forward positions: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are actively using drones, including kamikaze drones and Baba Yaga drones: 0.7
Russian forces are successfully identifying and targeting Ukrainian drone launch sites: 0.6
There is evidence of nationalist and aggressive ideology within Ukrainian forces: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are taking heavy losses, with some personnel choosing to end their lives rather than surrender: 0.7
