Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 12, 2025, 22:42 UTC
Key Changes and Developments (22:12 UTC - 22:42 UTC)
CONTINUED AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY IN KYIV (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
РБК-Україна (22:14 UTC): Reports from Kyiv Mayor Klitschko about air defense activity in the Podilskyi district and near Vynohradar.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS the ONGOING THREAT and AIR DEFENSE OPERATIONS in KYIV, specifically targeting the PODILSKYI DISTRICT and VYNHOGRADAR. This indicates a CONTINUED FOCUS of RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACKS on the CAPITAL.
RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF CAPTURE IN DONETSK REGION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Colonelcassad (22:25 UTC): Claims that Russian forces from the "Center" grouping captured Novoelizavetovka in the Donetsk People's Republic, near Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). Presents a video showing combat operations.
Assessment: This REINFORCES THE RUSSIAN NARRATIVE of ADVANCES on the DONETSK FRONT, specifically near POKROVSK. The VIDEO EVIDENCE, if VERIFIED, would SUPPORT THIS CLAIM. However, INDEPENDENT CONFIRMATION is NEEDED. The mention of KRASNOARMEYSK (the Russian name for Pokrovsk) suggests a FOCUS on this STRATEGICALLY IMPORTANT CITY.
REPORTED INTENSE SHELLING OF KHERSON (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
РБК-Україна (22:34 UTC): Reports from Kherson Military Administration Head Mrochko about intense shelling of Kherson by Russian forces. Civilians are urged to stay in shelters.
Assessment: This INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION of RUSSIAN ATTACKS on KHERSON. The INTENSE SHELLING poses a SEVERE THREAT to CIVILIANS and CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE. This may be a RETALIATORY ACTION or part of a BROADER OFFENSIVE.
CONFIRMED DRONE ATTACKS/FIRES IN RUSSIA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
РБК-Україна (22:38 UTC): Reports a fire at an infrastructure object in Voronezh Oblast due to a drone attack, with Russian media claiming damage to an energy facility. Also reports a fire in Krasnodar Krai due to a drone attack, with video evidence circulating online.
Assessment: This adds the Krasnodar Krai to the locations in Russia that have confirmed drone strikes.
Николаевский Ванёк (22:40 UTC): Provides updated positions of drone groups:
3 new groups near Zaporizhzhia
1 near Kryvyi Rih
4 towards/through Pereyaslav
4 from Poltava Oblast to Kyiv Oblast
1 southwest of Poltava
2 new groups near Okhtyrka
6 towards/through Nizhyn
1 from Chernihiv Oblast to Kyiv Oblast
1 towards/through Shostka
Assessment: This suggests that the drone attack is widespread.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
CONTINUED WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK ACROSS UKRAINE, with CONFIRMED AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY in KYIV.
INTENSE SHELLING OF KHERSON reported, posing a SEVERE THREAT TO CIVILIANS.
HIGH PRIORITY:
CONTINUED RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF ADVANCES, this time near POKROVSK in the DONETSK REGION.
CONFIRMED DRONE STRIKES IN RUSSIA: Voronezh Oblast, Belgorod Oblast, Ryazan, and now the Krasnodar Krai.
MEDIUM PRIORITY: No changes.
Updated Recommendations
ADDRESS THE ONGOING DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
MAINTAIN MAXIMUM ALERT STATUS for ALL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS, particularly in KYIV, ZAPORIZHZHIA, KRIVYI RIH, PEREYASLAV, and surrounding areas.
PRIORITIZE the INTERCEPTION OF DRONES targeting KYIV and OTHER MAJOR POPULATION CENTERS.
DEPLOY MOBILE AIR DEFENSE UNITS as needed to INTERCEPT INCOMING DRONES.
UTILIZE ELECTRONIC WARFARE SYSTEMS where possible to DISRUPT DRONE CONTROL.
ADDRESS THE SHELLING OF KHERSON (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
URGENTLY ASSESS the DAMAGE and CASUALTIES in KHERSON.
PROVIDE IMMEDIATE ASSISTANCE to AFFECTED CIVILIANS, including MEDICAL CARE, SHELTER, and EVACUATION if necessary.
GATHER INTELLIGENCE to DETERMINE THE SOURCE of the SHELLING and POTENTIAL TARGETS.
CONSIDER COUNTER-BATTERY FIRE if APPROPRIATE and FEASIBLE.
VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF ADVANCES (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to VERIFY the RUSSIAN CLAIMS of CAPTURING NOVOELIZAVETOVKA near POKROVSK.
ASSESS THE STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS if the RUSSIAN CLAIM is CONFIRMED.
HANDLE THE DRONE ATTACKS ON RUSSIA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Maintain previous recommendations.
MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND DYNAMIC. The WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK, the INTENSE SHELLING OF KHERSON, and the CONTINUED RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF ADVANCES pose MAJOR THREATS. The CONFIRMED DRONE STRIKES INSIDE RUSSIA represent an ESCALATION. IMMEDIATE AND COORDINATED ACTION is ESSENTIAL to PROTECT CIVILIAN LIVES and MAINTAIN UKRAINE'S DEFENSIVE CAPABILITIES.
Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:
The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.77
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.62
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.55
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 1.0
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 1.0
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.65
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.3
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.25
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.75
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.99999999999999
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.57
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.99999999999999
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
There is a widespread, multi-regional drone attack across Ukraine.: 0.98
The city of Kyiv is under threat of drone attack.: 0.83
Russian forcers have reportedly been pushed out of Lebedevka, Viktorovka and Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.: 0.77
Russian forces captured Martynovka.: 0.72
Ukraine has accepted a US proposal for a 30-day complete ceasefire, contingent on Russian acceptance. This includes all fronts, not just air and sea.: 0.98
Russian media and officials express high skepticism towards the ceasefire proposal, viewing it as a trap for Ukraine to rearm and regroup.: 0.93
There are reports of planned meetings between US and Russian officials on March 11 or 12 to discuss the ceasefire proposal.: 0.99999999999999
A ballistic missile threat was reported and then lifted for Odesa.: 0.75
Continued drone threats are present across multiple Ukrainian regions.: 0.99999999999999
France is replacing the US in providing satellite intelligence to Ukraine.: 0.6
There are claims of Russian forces in Sudzha.: 0.99999
Russian forces are occupying the center of Sudzha and the private sector.: 0.85
Russian forces continue to advance in the counterterrorism operation zone, liberating Makhnovka, Kazachya Loknya, Dmitryukov, and Zamostye.: 0.78
Trump believes Putin's agreement to a ceasefire would represent 75% of the way to resolving the Ukrainian conflict.: 0.65
Talks between US and Russian contact groups will occur tomorrow.: 0.8
Russia does not rule out contacts with US representatives in the next few days.: 0.85
Russian troops are occupying the center of Sudzha and the private sector.: 0.75
Ukrainian forces have been pushed out of the eastern part of Shevchenko as a result of Russian counterattacks. Fighting is ongoing for the northern part.: 0.65
Assault groups have reached the outskirts of the city from Mirny, Zamostye, and Kazachya Loknya: 0.85
Roads in the city are under the control of Russian troops.: 0.9
The 11th Airborne Assault Brigade destroyed at least five Ukrainian vehicles that were attempting to reinforce Sudzha: 0.86
Russian troops are occupying the Central Market: 0.999
Ukrainian troops are attempting to escape via side roads and through fields: 0.75
Trump intends to speak with Putin: 0.99
Von der Leyen stated that the EU will fully play its role in upcoming negotiations.: 0.8
A video call between Russia and Trump is possible.: 0.65
Putin's conditions to ceasing fire are that Ukraine must cede all territory in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia, along with officially withdrawing their application to NATO.: 0.76
Four crew members of a cargo ship in Odesa were killed from a ballistic strike.: 0.44
Infrastructure was destroyed in Dnipro, according to preliminary reports.: 0.7
Putin is scheduled to speak with Trump this Friday.: 0.7
Trump may call Putin this week.: 0.76
The US may consider restoring military aid under the PDA.: 0.55
Macron is urging the development of a security guarantees plan if a ceasefire occurs.: 0.65
The proposed 30-day ceasefire can be extended if both parties agree.: 0.55
Von der Leyen stated that the US-Ukraine talks are a positive step forward and that the ball is now in Russia's court.: 0.72
Russian troops are bringing the operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region to a logical conclusion, the assault of Sudzha has begun.: 0.8
A video was released of the Russian MFA claiming Russia will only agree to a permanent ceasefire under Russian terms: 0.6
Infrastructure was struck in Dnipro, there are damages: 0.7
Russia is not opposed to contact with US Representatives.: 0.7
Calin Georgescu was denied the ability to run for president: 0.4
There is a drone threat in Vinnystia Oblast.: 0.7
There is a drone threat in Dnipro, Pavlohrad, and Poltava.: 0.75
4 members of the crew of a ship carrying wheat were killed in a ballistic attack.: 0.5
Trump confirmed that he is expecting a new meeting with Zelensky at the White House.: 0.65
A discussion about exchanging prisoners between Russia and Ukraine occurred in Jeddah.: 0.57
NATO Secretary Rytte is leaving for the US on March 12 and will meet with Trump on March 13.: 0.68
If Russia does not cease fire, the US will supply Ukraine and continue fighting.: 0.64
A Russian drone attack hit an infrastructure object in Dnipro.: 0.72
Anti-drone work is ongoing around Dnipro.: 0.56
A fundraising campaign is underway for a Russian special forces unit operating in the Sudzha direction, requesting donations for Mavic 3T drones.: 0.52
The unit involved is the RHBZ (Radiation, Chemical, and Biological Defense) special forces.: 0.52
A monument to soldiers of the Great Patriotic War in Cossack Loknya was desecrated by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.: 0.68
A drone attack hit a dry cargo ship traveling the Odessa — Algeria route: 0.6
4 crew members were killed, and 1 was injured: 0.66
Russia will not agree to a temporary ceasefire because this will allow Ukraine to regroup and rearm.: 0.68
Trump is pushing for a complete ceasefire.: 0.3
Russia wants a complete and permanent ceasefire, not a temporary one.: 0.56
Gerasimov inspected the Kursk Group of Forces.: 0.5
343 Ukrainian UAVs were downed by Russian air defenses.: 0.4
The Sever Group of Forces have liberated 12 settlements and more than 100 square kilometers of Kursk region.: 0.5
The Yug Group of Forces liberated Gorkogo (Donetsk People's Republic).: 0.45
A series of strikes were carried out in Ukraine.: 0.6
An infrastructure object is burning in Dnipropetrovsk.: 0.58
A dry cargo ship was damaged in Odessa under the flag of Barbados.: 0.6
After strikes in Odessa, there were Iskander strikes in Dnipropetrovsk.: 0.5
Drones are expected to arrive in Dnipro soon.: 0.52
A mineral deal will be signed when the American side considers it convenient: 0.4
Macron is supportive of the 30-day ceasefire.: 0.7
There is a drone threat to Zhytomyr Oblast.: 0.75
There are reports of a multi-regional drone attack in progress.: 0.9
British Prime Minister Kir Starmer urged Russia to agree to a ceasefire: 0.7
RUSSIAN FORCES APPEAR TO HAVE CAPTURED SUDZHA**, with MULTIPLE REPORTS and VIDEO EVIDENCE of FLAG RAISINGS. The YUNAKIVKA-SUDZHA ROAD is reportedly under INTENSE RUSSIAN FIRE CONTROL, SEVERELY DISRUPTING UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS and REINFORCEMENT CAPABILITIES. REPORTS suggest a DISORGANIZED UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWAL, with ELITE UNITS potentially PRIORITIZED for EXTRACTION. : 1.0
US National Security Advisor WALTZ had a phone call with his RUSSIAN COUNTERPART.: 0.68
US Special Envoy WHITCOFF will travel to MOSCOW this week.: 0.56
SHOYGU and WALTZ had a phone conversation, discussing, among other things, a ceasefire in Ukraine.: 0.45
Russia wants to "replace Zelensky, establish a puppet regime," and make Ukraine a "large Austria" with a constitutional guarantee of neutrality.: 0.6
Ukraine's agreement to a 30-day ceasefire has put Russia in a difficult position diplomatically.: 0.6
Russia's goal is to deceive the Trump administration and gain control over Ukraine.: 0.5
Russia wants to demilitarize Ukraine, while European partners want to arm Ukraine.: 0.68
Trump stated he does not want to pressure Russia to force it into a truce with Ukraine.: 0.7
Trump mentioned he COULD IMPOSE ADDITIONAL SANCTIONS on Russia, but DOES NOT WANT TO DO SO because he WANTS PEACE. : 0.7
Ukrainian strikes on four settlements in Belgorod Oblast, Russia, with damage to vehicles and buildings.: 0.6
There is a drone threat in SUMY OBLAST.
POLAND SUPPORTS TURKEY'S EU MEMBERSHIP (POLITICAL, LOW PRIORITY): 0.5
REPORTED RUSSIAN ARTILLERY REPELS UKRAINIAN ATTEMPT TO ENTER DZERZHINSK (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): 0.9
