Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 12, 2025, 16:42 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (16:12 UTC - 16:42 UTC)

1. NOVOPAVLOVSK DIRECTION - INTENSE FIGHTING, CLAIMS AND COUNTERCLAIMS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Военкор Котенок (16:13 UTC) reports INTENSE FIGHTING in the NOVOPAVLOVSK DIRECTION. Claims UKRAINIAN RESERVES are COUNTERATTACKING in the areas of BURLATSKOYE, VOLNOYE POLE, and NOVOSYOLKA. Claims UKRAINIAN FORCES ATTEMPTED to ENTER and GAIN A FOOTHOLD in BURLATSKOYE, but were UNSUCCESSFUL and DESTROYED. Claims BURLATSKOYE remains under RUSSIAN CONTROL. Reports UKRAINIAN FORCES PUSHED BACK RUSSIAN ASSAULT GROUPS from PLANTATIONS near SHEVCHENKO. Reports FIERCE FIGHTING NORTHWEST and NORTH of NOVOSYOLKA. Claims RUSSIAN FORCES (Group "Vostok") are FOCUSING on BREAKING THROUGH UKRAINIAN DEFENSES NORTHWEST of VESYOLOYE. Claims RUSSIAN ASSAULT GROUPS reached the SOUTHERN and WESTERN OUTSKIRTS of VESYOLOYE along the LEFT BANK OF THE RIVER. Reports RUSSIAN ATTACKS on PREPARED UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE POSITIONS in VESYOLOYE and NORTHWEST along PLANTATIONS, targeting STRONGPOINTS in a RAVINE that COVERS ACCESS to FYODOROVKA, KOMAR, and MIRNOYE. Claims RUSSIAN MARINES and INFANTRY are REPELLING UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACKS and ATTACKING in the direction of VESYOLOYE on the RIGHT BANK OF THE RIVER.
     • Assessment: This report provides a DETAILED, albeit ONE-SIDED, account of the INTENSE FIGHTING in the NOVOPAVLOVSK DIRECTION. The CLAIMS AND COUNTERCLAIMS highlight the CONTESTED NATURE of the AREA and the SIGNIFICANT EFFORTS by BOTH SIDES to GAIN GROUND. The REPORTED UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACKS suggest UKRAINIAN FORCES are ACTIVELY DEFENDING and ATTEMPTING TO REGAIN LOST POSITIONS. The RUSSIAN FOCUS on BREAKING THROUGH UKRAINIAN DEFENSES near VESYOLOYE indicates a POTENTIAL STRATEGIC OBJECTIVE to ADVANCE towards FYODOROVKA, KOMAR, and MIRNOYE. The REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES towards the OUTSKIRTS OF VESYOLOYE need VERIFICATION. The USE OF MARINES and INFANTRY suggests a COMBINED ARMS APPROACH by RUSSIAN FORCES. INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION of ALL CLAIMS is ESSENTIAL.

2. CONFIRMED AIR RAID ALERT IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (16:17 UTC): Announces an AIR RAID ALERT in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST. Urges citizens to TAKE SHELTER.
     • Assessment: This CONFIRMS an IMMINENT THREAT in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST, likely from RUSSIAN AIR OR MISSILE ATTACKS. The AIR RAID ALERT indicates HEIGHTENED RISK and the NEED FOR IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES.

3. CLAIMED RUSSIAN SPECIAL FORCES GAS PIPELINE OPERATION (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• «Зона СВО» (16:15 UTC): claims that if there is no gas in pipes, it means that a group of Russian Special Forces are in the area.
  • Assessment: This REINFORCES the CLAIMED RUSSIAN OPERATION, as PREVIOUSLY REPORTED. This is LIKELY PROPAGANDA to PORTRAY RUSSIAN FORCES as INGENIOUS.

4. CLAIMED UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK ON MOSCOW AND PODMOSCOWYE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE)

• ASTRA (16:27 UTC): Reports that Zelensky calls the attack of Ukrainian drones on Moscow and Podmoscowye "a fair response" to the Russian actions in Ukraine.
• Assessment: This is an extremely dangerous claim that IMPLIES a MAJOR ESCALATION in warfare. This is POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS for the Ukrainian cause.

5. CLAIMED UKRAINIAN AGREEMENT TO 30 DAY CEASEFIRE, WITH CONDITIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN AND RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ASTRA (16:27 UTC): Claims that, after a dialogue with Trump on a 30-day truce, US military aid to Ukraine was restored. States that Ukraine is ready for a 30 day period of silence in a format proposed by the US, but will not recognize loss of lawful territories.
   • Оперативний ЗСУ (16:29 UTC) Claims that "half of the agreement is done", and it is up to Russia to agree.
   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (16:35) Claims that Trump threatens financial action against Russia that would do "major harm".

   *   **Assessment:** This suggests a *MAJOR SHIFT* in the situation, *IMPLYING* the use of the 30 day ceasefire as leverage, which is extremely dangerous. This *APPEARS TO BE A BLUFF*.
   

6. RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA CLAIM OF UKRAINIAN LIBERATION, (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• AV БогомаZ (16:15) Shares a picture and a story about Palina Alekseevna Sergeeva, who served in the Red Army as a driver during the war.
  • Assessment: This is a propaganda piece, designed to connect the Russian war on Ukraine to the Great Patriotic War.

7. OTHER REPORTS:
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (16:15 UTC): Reports an enemy drone in Zaporizhzhia, and a possible air raid.

• Оперативний ЗСУ (16:23) Claims that Trump could do financial actions against Russia that would do major harm.
  • Два майора (16:24): Image of a joke regarding Russia's "cunning plans".
• Colonelcassad (16:25) Posts a video of the Sudzha-Yunakivka road, and claims it is under Russian control.
  • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (16:24): Video of the Russian 102nd regiment ambushing and destroying NATO armored vehicles and destroying a Ukrainian stronghold.
  • 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (16:30) Reports on the condition of the injured from the Kryvyi Rih attack, and reports drone and artillery attacks on the Nikopol region, injuring a 64 year old woman.
  • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (16:32): Reports a drone threat for Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
• ТАСС (16:22): Claims that Zelenskiy's claims of protecting Ukrainian independence are funny, as he has placed the country in total dependance and has perverted the constitution. * Два майора (16:20): Claims that a traitor is spreading false information regarding Strelkov's suicide.
  • MoD Russia (16:18): Video of drone teams of the 35th Motorized Rifle Brigade.
  • РБК-Україна (16:18): Reports that Kim Jung Un has built a nuclear bunker at the site of his palace.
• Воин DV (16:30): Video of the 11th Air Force and Air Defense Army of the "Vostok" Group hitting a temporary deployment point of the enemy in Bogatyr. * Новости Москвы (16:29): Video Report of an eel's birthday.
  • Басурин о главном (16:38): Reports that the last hotel in Kryvyi Rih was destroyed by a Russian Iskander. Claims that the hotel housed Ukrainian soldiers and foreign mercenaries. Claims a grain tanker carrying munitions was hit in the Odessa port. Claims deaths of Syrians and Ukrainians on the ship, claiming the ship was British/American. Claims attacks on the Dubno airfield in Rivne Oblast. Claims a logistical center and repair base was destroyed in Dnipropetrovsk. Claims the destruction of two warehouses in a border base in Sery Yar, Kharkiv Oblast. Claims the destruction of a logistical center of the "Delivery" company in Sumy. * Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (16:39): Video of Ukranian soldiers training on the Leopard 2 tanks. * ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (16:40): Reports that Americans are asking Ukrainians to make better drones for the American army.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • INTENSE FIGHTING CONTINUES in the NOVOPAVLOVSK DIRECTION, with CLAIMS and COUNTERCLAIMS of ADVANCES and COUNTERATTACKS. RUSSIAN FORCES appear to be FOCUSED on BREAKING THROUGH UKRAINIAN DEFENSES near VESYOLOYE. INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION of ALL CLAIMS is URGENTLY NEEDED.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • CONFIRMED AIR RAID ALERT in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST, indicating an IMMINENT THREAT.
  • Reports of continued Drone Attacks, both in Ukraine, and on Moscow.
  • Reports of a ceasefire agreement continue to come, but with conflicting information.

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

• Continued propaganda releases from both sides.

Updated Recommendations

1. ADDRESS THE FIGHTING IN THE NOVOPAVLOVSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Maintain all previous recommendations.
   • URGENTLY DEPLOY INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to VERIFY the CLAIMS of ADVANCES, COUNTERATTACKS, and CONTROL of KEY LOCATIONS such as BURLATSKOYE, VESYOLOYE, SHEVCHENKO, and NOVOSYOLKA.
   • REINFORCE UKRAINIAN DEFENSES in AREAS UNDER ATTACK, particularly near VESYOLOYE.
   • DEVELOP CONTINGENCY PLANS for POTENTIAL RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGHS in the AREA.
   • TARGET RUSSIAN FORCES ATTEMPTING TO ADVANCE, using ALL AVAILABLE ASSETS, including ARTILLERY, DRONES, and CLOSE AIR SUPPORT (if available).
   • PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVES to REGAIN LOST POSITIONS once the SITUATION IS STABILIZED.

2. RESPOND TO THE AIR RAID ALERT IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Maintain all previous recommendations.
   • **ENSURE ALL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS are ACTIVE and READY to ENGAGE INCOMING THREATS.
   • **CONTINUE TO URGE CIVILIANS to REMAIN IN SHELTERS until the ALL-CLEAR is given.

3. INVESTIGATE AND VERIFY CEASEFIRE REPORTS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

• Gather all available reports, claims, and denials.
• Immediately contact all allies.

4. MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND FLUID. The INTENSE FIGHTING in the NOVOPAVLOVSK DIRECTION, the AIR RAID ALERT in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST, and the continued reports of Russian attacks REQUIRE IMMEDIATE ATTENTION. VERIFICATION OF ALL CLAIMS is CRITICAL to INFORM DECISION-MAKING. The POTENTIAL FOR A CEASEFIRE is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT, but the DETAILS and VERIFICATION are ESSENTIAL before ANY CHANGES IN STRATEGY are considered.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

• The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.88
• Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.9
• The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
• The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
• The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
• The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
• Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
• Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.65
• Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
• 35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
• Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
• Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.8
• Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
• Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
• Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
• Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
• There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
• Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
• Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
• Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
• Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
• The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
• Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
• There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
• There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
• There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
• Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
• There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
• Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
• Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
• Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.85
• There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.68
• Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
• A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
• A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
• A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
• Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
• Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
• Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
• There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
• Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
• There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
• Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
• There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
• A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
• Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
• Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
• Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
• Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
• Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
• Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
• The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
• The restrictions are related to weather conditions affecting air traffic control.: 0.02
• The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
• The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
• Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
• A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
• The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
• US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
• The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
• The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
• Intense fighting continues in the area of ​​Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
• The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
• The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
• The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
• Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
• Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
• The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
• Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
• Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
• Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
• On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
• Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
• Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
• Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
• Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
• The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
• One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
• Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
• Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
• Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
• 40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
• Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
• Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
• Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
• Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
• Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
• Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
• Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
• There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
• A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
• A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
• An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
• Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
• All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
• The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
• Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
• The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
• 180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
• 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
• Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
• Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
• Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.44
• Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
• Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
• Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
• Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
• Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
• Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
• UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
• Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
• The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
• Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
• Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
• Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
• The new Canadian Prime Minister intends to take a firm stance against the US on trade issues.: 0.16
• Trade relations between Canada and the US will remain strained in the near future.: 0.08
• An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
• Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
• Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
• A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
• The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.8
• Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78
• There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.58
• The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
• The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
• A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
• Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
• The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
• Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
• There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
• Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
• Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.78
• Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
• Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
• Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
• Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
• Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
• Russian Ka-52 pilots are employing specific attack profiles and targeting strategies.: 0.47
• Russian helicopters are operating in contested airspace and employing electronic warfare countermeasures.: 0.47
• The video is part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonstrate military strength and operational effectiveness.: 0.47
• Ukraine is attempting to persuade the US to resume intelligence and military support.: 0.78
• Ukraine is offering a partial ceasefire on long-range drone/missile strikes and Black Sea operations.: 0.72
• Ukraine is emphasizing President Zelensky's desire for a swift end to the war.: 0.65
• The proposed ceasefire agreement includes a halt to air attacks, naval operations, and attacks on energy/civilian infrastructure.: 0.67
• The agreement includes prisoner exchanges and the return of Ukrainian children.: 0.64
• Trump stated that the provision of intelligence data to Ukraine has "almost been restored.": 0.82
• A Ukrainian attempt to unblock the SUDZHA-GORNAL road by attacking near the "Kolosok" camp with up to a company-sized assault group was completely destroyed, with the area remaining under Russian control.: 0.7
• Multiple bridges near Sudzha have been destroyed:0.7
• Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 2nd Knyazhy (destroyed by a FAB-3000 UMPK guided bomb).: 0.7
• Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 1st Knyazhy.: 0.7
• Bridge in Sudzha, near the destroyed Ukrainian convoy (corroborating previous reports).: 0.7
• Bridge east of Sudzha, behind the convoy, destroyed by an FPV drone strike on explosives.: 0.7
• Intense fighting in Tarasovka: 0.42
• Ukrainian forces (Signum unit of the 53rd Mechanized Brigade) shot down 9 Russian reconnaissance drones overnight: 3 Orlans, 3 Zalas, and 3 Supercams.: 0.5
• Two men claiming to have been evacuated from the Sudzha direction after being under "fascist occupation" for six months.: 0.5
• The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk.: 0.6
• The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk, using a drone.: 0.7
• An "Inokhodets" drone was used to kill up to 50 enemy personnel.: 0.25
• A fiber-optic controlled FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian soldier and ambushed an armored vehicle in the Kursk region.: 0.6
• A Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) raid on a gas platform near the Golitsynskoye gas field in the Black Sea on the night of March 7-8.: 0.63
• Russian forces liberated the settlement of Gorky in the Donetsk People's Republic (DNR).: 0.86
• drone operators of the 35th Army of the "Vostok" group are targeting Ukrainian infantry and equipment in the Polozhsky direction.: 0.84
• drone operators of the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade of the "Vostok" group are continuing to destroy Ukrainian personnel in the Yuzhno-Donetsk direction.: 0.84
• fierce fighting in the Novopavlovsk direction. units of the "Vostok" group broke through Ukrainian defenses on the outskirts of Volnoye Pole and are fighting closer to the center of the village.: 0.8
• Ukrainian positions south of the village have been taken.: 0.72
• Ukrainian forces are being pushed out of positions north and west of Burlatskoye.: 0.8
• fierce fighting in the Dneproenergiya-Razdolnoye area.: 0.85
• a Russian Su-34 destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border region.: 0.9
• the Russian Air Force used a FAB-3000 bomb to destroy a Ukrainian fortified position in the Kursk direction.: 0.8
• Ukrainian drones of the "Predators of Heights" unit of the 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade are operating in the Pokrovsk direction. 11 Russians and a car were hit.: 0.8
• Russian forces have entered the outskirts of Sudzha.: 0.9999999999999
• Ukrainian forces are surrounded from the east, north, and west, and that the only road for retreat is under fire control. chaos and panic among Ukrainian forces in Sudzha.: 0.8
• General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine claims that Ukrainian forces, in cooperation with various intelligence and security agencies, struck a number of strategic targets within Russia overnight on March 11th.: 0.9
• Moscow Oil Refinery, the production capacity of the refinery, which reportedly supplies 40-50% of Moscow's diesel and gasoline needs, was hit.: 0.84
• "Stalnoy Kon" (Steel Horse) Linear Production Dispatch Station, explosions at this station, which manages the "Druzhba" oil pipeline and supplies oil to the "Ust-Luga" seaport terminal, was hit.: 0.8
• Reports of a Ukrainian drone strike in the Zaporizhia region are false.: 0.54
• Russian air defenses in Moscow are being prioritized, leaving other areas vulnerable.: 0.42
• Ukrainian drone strikes are a negotiating tactic.: 0.77
• Russian forces claim the capture of Dmitryukov
• RUSSIAN FORCES APPEAR TO HAVE CAPTURED SUDZHA**, with MULTIPLE REPORTS and VIDEO EVIDENCE of FLAG RAISINGS. The YUNAKIVKA-SUDZHA ROAD is reportedly under INTENSE RUSSIAN FIRE CONTROL, SEVERELY DISRUPTING UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS and REINFORCEMENT CAPABILITIES. REPORTS suggest a DISORGANIZED UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWAL, with ELITE UNITS potentially PRIORITIZED for EXTRACTION. : 1.0
• RUSSIAN FORCES claim CONTINUED OFFENSIVE ACTIONS and UKRAINIAN LOSSES in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST. : 0.44
• UKRAINIAN DRONE OPERATIONS are CONFIRMED in the KURSK REGION. : 0.6
• Reports on CEASEFIRE NEGOTIATIONS involving MULTIPLE WESTERN POWERS, UKRAINE, and potentially RUSSIA. : 0.68
• CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):* : 1.0
• UK, FRANCE, and GERMANY helped the US and UKRAINE negotiate a CEASEFIRE. : 0.7
• Ukraine is ready to compromise, but it is up to Russia now.: 0.6
• Trump says American officials are headed to Russia to negotiate.: 0.65
• Ukrainian drone strike occurred in the Zaporizhia region: 0.91
• Fierce fighting continues in Burlatskoye, Volnoye Pole, and Novosyolka: 0.86
• Russian forces control B