Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 12, 2025, 05:12 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (04:43 UTC - 05:12 UTC)

1. CLAIMED ENCIRCLEMENT OF SUDZHA (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • НгП раZVедка (04:50 UTC): Claims that the "cauldron in Sudzha is officially established," comparing it to the 2014 Battle of Ilovaisk (a major Ukrainian defeat). Predicts Ukrainian attempts to break out, but suggests that most Ukrainian forces in Sudzha will either be killed or captured.
   • Assessment: This report SIGNIFICANTLY ESCALATES previous claims of a POTENTIAL ENCIRCLEMENT of UKRAINIAN FORCES in SUDZHA. The COMPARISON TO ILOVAISK is INTENDED to be PSYCHOLOGICALLY DAMAGING to UKRAINIAN MORALE. IF TRUE, this represents a COMPLETE COLLAPSE of the UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE POSITION in the KURSK OBLAST BORDER REGION and a MAJOR VICTORY for RUSSIA. URGENT VERIFICATION is ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL.

2. CONTINUED DRONE THREAT IN KYIV OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (04:51 UTC): Reports a drone threat in Kyiv Oblast (excluding the city of Kyiv itself).
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS the ONGOING, WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK is CONTINUING and TARGETING AREAS AROUND THE UKRAINIAN CAPITAL.

3. REPORTED FIGHTING IN BELOHORIVKA, SEVERSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника (04:54 UTC): Claims Russian forces have "cleared" Belohorivka and are engaging Ukrainian forces in fortified positions to the west. Reports ongoing artillery and mortar fire.
   • Assessment: This report SUGGESTS RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the SEVERSK DIRECTION, but REQUIRES CAUTION. The CLAIM OF CLEARING BELOHORIVKA is UNCORROBORATED by UKRAINIAN SOURCES at this time. The REPORTED FIGHTING to the WEST indicates that the BATTLE is ONGOING.

4. REPORTED FIGHTING IN SUDZHA AND SURROUNDING AREAS, KURSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника (04:54 UTC): Reports that Russian forces (including the 22nd Brigade) are entering from the direction of Zaoleshenka. Claims that fighting is ongoing inside Sudzha, with Ukrainian forces being pushed out of fortified positions. Reports the destruction of two Ukrainian groups attempting to flee the city overnight, claiming a lack of coordination among Ukrainian units. Warns civilians against traveling to "liberated areas."

   • Assessment: This report PROVIDES FURTHER DETAILS on the CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE in the KURSK OBLAST BORDER REGION. The REPORTS OF FIGHTING INSIDE SUDZHA and the DESTRUCTION OF UKRAINIAN UNITS ATTEMPTING TO FLEE STRONGLY SUPPORT the CLAIM OF A COLLAPSING UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE POSITION. The WARNING TO CIVILIANS reinforces the IMPRESSION OF ONGOING COMBAT OPERATIONS.

5. UKRAINIAN POW VIDEO (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• ТАСС (04:53 UTC): Video of a captured Ukrainian soldier who claims he waited three days for evacuation in a ditch.
• Assessment: This is likely PROPAGANDA aimed at DEMORALIZING UKRAINIAN TROOPS and ENCOURAGING SURRENDER. The CLAIMS OF POOR EVACUATION PROCEDURES are CONSISTENT with PREVIOUS REPORTS of UKRAINIAN LOGISTICAL DIFFICULTIES.

6. RUSSIAN FORCES LIBERATE KAZACHIA LOKNIA (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED):

   • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (05:01): Video of Russian paratroopers from the 137th airborne liberating the area.

• Assessment: The CLAIM should be monitored, but many sources are reporting Russian success.

7. RUSSIAN FORCES FUNDRAISING VIDEO (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED):
   • Colonelcassad (05:03): Video about helping Russian forces in the 110th brigade.

• Assessment: Confirms that funds are needed to sustain operations.

8. GENERAL STAFF OF THE ARMED FORCES UPDATED REPORT
   • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (05:06): Claims 1 ship in the black sea, with missiles. Claims the ship can hold up to 4 missiles. No enemy ships in the Azov Sea. In the Mediterranean Sea, 4 enemy ships, with a possible 26 missiles on board. Also reports on ships passing through the Kerch Strait.

• Assessment: Confirms the Russian navy is still active.

9. REPORTS THAT ZELENSKY'S RESIGNATION WAS NOT DISCUSSED:

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (05:06): Claims that Zelensky's resignation was not discussed in the meeting in Jiddah, according to Fox News.
   • Assessment: REINFORCES the INFORMATION.

10. UPDATED UKRAINIAN REPORT OF BLACK SEA ACTIVITY

• РБК-Україна (05:08): Report confirms 1 "Kalibr" missile carrier, up to 4 missiles in the Black Sea, and no warships in the Azov Sea.
• Assessment: CONFIRMS the INFORMATION.

11. SUMMARY FROM RYBAR

• Рыбарь (05:08): Reports on the situation in the Kursk region, claiming multiple settlements captured. Confirms damage in Odessa.
  • Assessment: CONFIRMS damage and fighting.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • CLAIMED COMPLETE ENCIRCLEMENT OF SUDZHA, with RUSSIAN SOURCES comparing the situation to the 2014 BATTLE OF ILOVAISK. THIS REPRESENTS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC DEVELOPMENT for UKRAINIAN FORCES in the KURSK OBLAST BORDER REGION.
  • ONGOING FIGHTING REPORTED INSIDE SUDZHA, with RUSSIAN SOURCES claiming the DESTRUCTION OF UKRAINIAN UNITS ATTEMPTING TO FLEE.
  • RUSSIAN ADVANCES REPORTED IN THE SEVERSK DIRECTION, with CLAIMS OF CLEARING BELOHORIVKA. THIS REQUIRES VERIFICATION.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • CONTINUED DRONE THREAT IN KYIV OBLAST, confirming the ONGOING, WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK.

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

  • UKRAINIAN POW VIDEO RELEASED BY RUSSIAN SOURCES, likely as PROPAGANDA.

Updated Recommendations

1. ADDRESS THE SITUATION IN SUDZHA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS ACTIONS.
   • URGENTLY VERIFY the CLAIM OF COMPLETE ENCIRCLEMENT.
   • DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to DETERMINE THE EXACT LOCATION and STRENGTH of RUSSIAN FORCES around SUDZHA.
   • IMMEDIATELY ATTEMPT TO ESTABLISH COMMUNICATION with UKRAINIAN FORCES in SUDZHA to ASSESS THEIR SITUATION and COORDINATE ACTIONS.
   • IF ENCIRCLEMENT IS CONFIRMED, EXPLORE ALL POSSIBLE OPTIONS for BREAKING THE ENCIRCLEMENT or CONDUCTING A CONTROLLED WITHDRAWAL.
   • LAUNCH IMMEDIATE COUNTERATTACKS to DISRUPT RUSSIAN ADVANCES and RELIEVE PRESSURE on SUDZHA.
   • PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL EVACUATION of CIVILIANS from SUDZHA and SURROUNDING AREAS.

2. ADDRESS THE REPORTED FIGHTING IN BELOHORIVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • URGENTLY VERIFY the RUSSIAN CLAIM OF CLEARING BELOHORIVKA.
   • GATHER INTELLIGENCE on RUSSIAN FORCE DISPOSITIONS and INTENTIONS in the SEVERSK DIRECTION.
   • REINFORCE UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE POSITIONS in the AREA to PREVENT FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCES.

3. MAINTAIN AIR DEFENSE EFFORTS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS in KYIV OBLAST and OTHER THREATENED AREAS.
   • CONTINUE TO PRIORITIZE the DEFENSE OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE.

4. COUNTER RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • ADDRESS THE CLAIMS made in the UKRAINIAN POW VIDEO.
   • HIGHLIGHT UKRAINIAN SUCCESSES and REINFORCE THE IMPORTANCE OF THE FIGHT.
   • MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS

The situation in the KURSK OBLAST BORDER REGION has DETERIORATED RAPIDLY and DRAMATICALLY. The CLAIMED ENCIRCLEMENT OF SUDZHA represents a POTENTIAL MILITARY CATASTROPHE for UKRAINE. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is ESSENTIAL to VERIFY THE SITUATION, ASSESS OPTIONS, and MITIGATE THE RISKS. The ONGOING, WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK adds ANOTHER LAYER OF URGENCY to the SITUATION.

[Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs] Current Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

• Russian forces are making significant advances in the Kursk region, particularly around Sumy and near the town of Sudja, with Ukrainian forces retreating westward.: 0.78
• Russia is intensifying attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and logistics, targeting areas including Odessa, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kyiv, while also facing Ukrainian counterattacks in Belgorod.: 0.89
• Heavy fighting continues in the Donbas region, specifically around Belogorovka and near Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk), with both sides reinforcing their positions.: 0.86
• Ukrainian forces are using drones to target civilian areas and infrastructure inside Russia, particularly in the Belgorod region, causing damage and casualties.: 0.8
• The control of Piatykhatky in Zaporizhzhia remains contested and of limited strategic value due to its destruction and lack of defenses.: 0.95
• Russian forces are continuing attacks in multiple directions, including Kursk and Seversk.: 0.87
• Ukrainian forces are surrounded in Sudzha.: 0.85
• The situation in Sudzha is similar to the 2014 defeat at Ilovaisk.: 0.6
• Russian forces have captured Belohorivka.: 0.5
• Russian forces are pushing Ukrainian forces from fortified positions inside Sudzha.: 0.8
• Ukrainian forces lack coordination inside Sudzha.: 0.7
• Russian paratroopers from the 137th PDD are operating in Kazachia Loknia.: 0.8