Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 11, 2025, 16:12 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (15:42 UTC - 16:12 UTC)

1. SUDZHA AREA/KURSK REGION: CONTINUED REPORTS OF RUSSIAN ADVANCES, UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWALS, AND ENCIRCLEMENT THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (15:36 UTC): Claims Russian forces have CLEARED the SUBURB OF MIRNY and LIBERATED the village of 2ND KNYAZHY, both near SUDZHA. States that FIGHTING IS ONGOING on the OUTSKIRTS OF SUDZHA and that RUSSIAN FORCES ARE SQUEEZING THE TOWN. Provides a map.
   • Басурин о главном (15:26 UTC): Provides a video of the RUSSIAN FLAG being RAISED in ZAMOSTYE, claiming it as evidence of RUSSIAN CONTROL. Claims Ukrainian forces are FLEEING SUDZHA towards the border and that Russian forces have entered the town. Asserts that MOST OF SUDZHA WILL BE UNDER RUSSIAN CONTROL TODAY. Claims USPENOVKA, MAKHOVKA, ZAMOSTYE, and DMITRYUKOV have been LIBERATED. Suggests a potential ENCIRCLEMENT of Ukrainian forces south of Sudzha. Claims WESTERN MEDIA has ACKNOWLEDGED the Ukrainian retreat. Mentions a supposed deadline of May 9th for Russian forces to liberate Kursk Oblast.
   • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (15:53 UTC): Claims Ukrainian forces in Sudzha are in a dire situation, with the LIBERATION OF THE TOWN being a "matter of time." Claims Russian forces have taken key strongpoints on the outskirts, preventing a long defense. States that Ukrainian units are retreating in a chaotic manner.
   • Рыбарь (15:55 UTC): Reports Russian forces have "cleaned up" the remnants of KAZACHYA LOKNYA and taken control of 1ST AND 2ND KNYAZHY. Claims Russian forces have reached the outskirts of ZAOLESHENKA north of Sudzha. States that fighting is ongoing WITHIN SUDZHA and that Ukrainian forces may have withdrawn most of their forces. Claims Ukrainian forces are trying to hold the GOGOLEVKA-OLESHNYA line to evacuate equipment, using Territorial Defense units as a "living shield."
   • ТАСС (16:00 UTC): Reports that Russian forces have ALMOST COMPLETELY SURROUNDED SUDZHA, citing Alaudinov.
   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (15:53 UTC): Reports FIGHTING ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF SUDZHA, stating the town is under UKRAINIAN CONTROL. Claims Russian attempts to cut off Ukrainian forces from the border have been REPELLED, but that the enemy is creating threats to individual positions. Reports 23 combat clashes in the Kursk direction, 14 ongoing, with 3 airstrikes and 167 artillery strikes.
   • Assessment: The situation in the SUDZHA AREA has DRAMATICALLY WORSENED for UKRAINE. Multiple RUSSIAN SOURCES, including TASS and claims made by ALAUDINOV, are reporting a NEAR-TOTAL ENCIRCLEMENT of SUDZHA and SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCES. While UKRAINIAN SOURCES acknowledge FIGHTING ON THE OUTSKIRTS, they CONTRADICT claims of a COMPLETE RUSSIAN TAKEOVER. The CONVERGENCE OF RUSSIAN REPORTS on SPECIFIC VILLAGE CAPTURES (MIRNY, 2ND KNYAZHY, ZAMOSTYE) and ADVANCES TOWARDS ZAOLESHENKA lends SIGNIFICANT CREDIBILITY to the claims of a MAJOR RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE. The THREAT OF ENCIRCLEMENT is EXTREMELY HIGH and REQUIRES IMMEDIATE ACTION. The CLAIM OF FIGHTING WITHIN SUDZHA from MULTIPLE SOURCES is a CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT. The UKRAINIAN ADMISSION of 23 COMBAT CLASHES, AIRSTRIKES, AND HEAVY ARTILLERY FIRE CONFIRMS THE INTENSITY OF THE FIGHTING.

2. POKROVSK DIRECTION: CONTINUED FIGHTING, CONFLICTING CLAIMS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Сливочный каприз (15:16 UTC): Claims UKRAINIAN FORCES CONDUCTED A TANK ATTACK east of MALINOVKA, with a FIRE RAID on RUSSIAN POSITIONS south of the KRASNOARMEYSK-KONSTANTINOVKA HIGHWAY. Claims UKRAINIAN CONTROL expanded by APPROXIMATELY 1 KM. Provides coordinates.
   • Colonelcassad (15:23 UTC): Reports INTENSE FIGHTING on the POKROVSK DIRECTION, with RUSSIAN FORCES CONDUCTING ASSAULTS and STABILIZING DEFENSES. Provides a detailed breakdown of fighting in specific areas:
     • UDACHNOYE: Claims LIMITED UKRAINIAN ADVANCES were HALTED by RUSSIAN DEFENSES.
     • KOTLINO: Claims POSITIONAL FIGHTING with UKRAINIAN FORCES using ARTILLERY AND MORTARS.
     • PESCHANOYE: Claims FIGHTING in the SOUTHWEST of the village and in the INDUSTRIAL ZONE.
     • SHEVCHENKO: Claims RUSSIAN FORCES REPULSED a UKRAINIAN ATTACK, preventing UKRAINIAN ADVANCE.
     • NOVY TRUD AND ZELENOYE: Claims RUSSIAN FORCES have a TACTICAL ADVANTAGE and are ADVANCING TOWARDS CHUNISHINO.
     • TARASOVKA: Claims RUSSIAN FORCES are ASSAULTING UKRAINIAN POSITIONS in the SOUTH.

• Оперативний ЗСУ (15:44): Claims that there were 58 attacks in the Pokrovsk direction.
  • Assessment: Fighting on the Pokrovsk direction remains very active, with conflicting claims.

3. CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):

   • Colonelcassad (15:24 UTC): Claims the LIBERATION of BONDAREVKA by the 11th Airborne Brigade (Buryatia), a 3km advance towards MIRNY, clearing of the industrial zone south, southeast, and southwest of MIRNY, and the LIBERATION of KOLMAKOV, DMITRYUKOV, and MAKHOVKA. Claims the capture of enemy trophies, including a strongpoint with a radio station and 35 FPV drones.
   • Assessment: These claims, if true, represent FURTHER RUSSIAN GAINS in the KURSK REGION. The reported CAPTURE OF FPV DRONES is NOTEWORTHY. INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION is ESSENTIAL.

4. RUSSIAN DRONE OPERATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):

   • Colonelcassad (15:14 UTC): Video claims to show RUSSIAN FORCES ("RUBICON" battle groups) using drones to TARGET AND DESTROY UKRAINIAN EQUIPMENT AND PERSONNEL on the YUZHNODONETSK DIRECTION. Specific claims include destruction of a 2S22 BOGDANA SELF-PROPELLED GUN, a URAL-4320 TRUCK, MULTIPLE CARS, a SISU XA-180 APC, an OSHKOSH M-ATV, a KOZAK ARMORED VEHICLE, a LEOPARD 1 TANK, MULTIPLE TEMPORARY DEPLOYMENT POINTS, and "BABA YAGA" drones.
   • Assessment: The VIDEO, if authentic, DEMONSTRATES THE CONTINUED EFFECTIVENESS OF RUSSIAN DRONE WARFARE. The SPECIFICITY OF THE CLAIMS regarding DESTROYED EQUIPMENT ADDS CREDIBILITY, but INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION is NEEDED. The TARGETING OF "BABA YAGA" DRONES suggests COUNTER-DRONE OPERATIONS. This report REINFORCES THE IMPORTANCE OF DRONES in the CURRENT CONFLICT.

5. OTHER REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Воин DV and Colonelcassad (16:05 UTC): Reports the liberation of Dneproenergiya.

6. AIR RAID ALERTS AND AIR ACTIVITY (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (15:32 UTC): AIR RAID ALERT in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (15:32, 15:33 UTC): Reports ENEMY TACTICAL AVIATION ACTIVITY in the SOUTHEAST and NORTHEAST, with a THREAT OF AIRSTRIKES for FRONTLINE REGIONS.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (15:35): Report enemy drone activity, and guided bombs used on Zaporizhzhia and Donestsk.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (15:38): Report guided bombs in the north of Kharkiv.
   • Assessment: These alerts CONFIRM CONTINUED AIR ACTIVITY and the THREAT OF AIRSTRIKES AND DRONE ATTACKS in MULTIPLE REGIONS OF UKRAINE. This REINFORCES PREVIOUS ASSESSMENTS and HIGHLIGHTS THE ONGOING DANGER to CIVILIAN POPULATIONS and MILITARY FORCES.

7. CLAIMED UKRAINIAN CEASEFIRE PROPOSAL (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (15:20 UTC): Reports that UKRAINE AND THE US discussed a POTENTIAL CEASEFIRE in the AIR AND SEA during their FIRST ROUND OF NEGOTIATIONS, as well as an AGREEMENT ON MINERALS.
   • РБК-Україна,Оперативний ЗСУ (15:45 UTC): Reports that the negotiations between the USA and Ukraine in Saudi Arabia have been going well.
   • Assessment: This report REQUIRES VERIFICATION from UKRAINIAN and US sources. If true, it represents a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, but the LIMITED SCOPE of the proposed ceasefire (air and sea only) suggests it is UNLIKELY TO LEAD TO A BROADER PEACE AGREEMENT.

8. OTHER REPORTS (LOW/MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • ASTRA(15:17 UTC): Report that the number of deaths due to the mall attack has risen to five.
   • ТАСС (15:18): Report that two of the victims of the mall attack are being sent to Moscow for treatment.
   • РБК-Україна (15:23 UTC): Report that Ukrainians outside of the country will be able to pay the draft-dodging fine online.
   • ТАСС (15:35 UTC): Reports that RUSSIA HAS NO DIALOGUE WITH THE EU, claiming there are ALMOST NO ADEQUATE CONVERSATIONAL PARTNERS left.
   • Оперативний ЗСУ (15:29 UTC): Reports EARLY PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS are taking place in GREENLAND, with discussions of INDEPENDENCE FROM DENMARK and a MAJORITY OPPOSING JOINING THE US.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • RAPIDLY DETERIORATING SITUATION IN SUDZHA AREA/KURSK REGION, with MULTIPLE RUSSIAN SOURCES claiming a NEAR-TOTAL ENCIRCLEMENT of SUDZHA and SIGNIFICANT ADVANCES. UKRAINIAN SOURCES acknowledge FIGHTING ON THE OUTSKIRTS, but CONTRADICT claims of a complete Russian takeover. IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUIRED TO PREVENT ENCIRCLEMENT AND LOSS OF SUDZHA.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • INTENSE FIGHTING on the POKROVSK DIRECTION, with CONFLICTING CLAIMS OF ADVANCES by BOTH SIDES.
  • CONTINUED REPORTS OF RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the KURSK REGION (Bondarevka, Mirny, Kolmakov, Dmitryukov, Makhnovka).
  • CONTINUED EFFECTIVENESS OF RUSSIAN DRONE WARFARE, targeting UKRAINIAN EQUIPMENT AND PERSONNEL.
  • ALL PREVIOUS HIGH-PRIORITY ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

  • CONTINUED AIR ACTIVITY and THREAT OF AIRSTRIKES AND DRONE ATTACKS across UKRAINE.
  • REPORTED UKRAINIAN CEASEFIRE PROPOSAL for AIR AND SEA, requiring VERIFICATION.
  • ALL PREVIOUS MEDIUM-PRIORITY ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.

Updated Recommendations

1. ADDRESS THE IMMINENT THREAT TO SUDZHA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • URGENTLY REINFORCE UKRAINIAN DEFENSES in and around SUDZHA with ALL AVAILABLE FORCES, prioritizing the PREVENTION OF ENCIRCLEMENT.
   • DEPLOY MAXIMUM INTELLIGENCE ASSETS (drones, human intelligence, signal intelligence) to CONFIRM RUSSIAN POSITIONS, ASSESS THE EXTENT OF THEIR ADVANCE, and IDENTIFY POTENTIAL VULNERABILITIES.
   • PRIORITIZE THE DEFENSE OF KEY ACCESS ROUTES to SUDZHA to PREVENT COMPLETE ENCIRCLEMENT.
   • DEVELOP AND IMPLEMENT CONTINGENCY PLANS for a CONTROLLED WITHDRAWAL if RUSSIAN ADVANCES CANNOT BE HALTED, prioritizing the SAFETY OF CIVILIAN POPULATIONS and the PRESERVATION OF EQUIPMENT. This should include PRE-PLANNED EVACUATION ROUTES and DESIGNATED RALLY POINTS.
   • INCREASE COUNTER-BATTERY FIRE to TARGET RUSSIAN ARTILLERY AND ROCKET POSITIONS supporting the OFFENSIVE.
   • PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL EVACUATION of CIVILIANS from SUDZHA and SURROUNDING VILLAGES, prioritizing the MOST VULNERABLE POPULATIONS.
   • URGENTLY ATTEMPT TO ESTABLISH COMMUNICATION with UKRAINIAN FORCES in SUDZHA to ASSESS THEIR SITUATION and COORDINATE ACTIONS.

2. ADDRESS THE SITUATION ON THE POKROVSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • DEPLOY ADDITIONAL INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to VERIFY THE CLAIMS of BOTH SIDES regarding ADVANCES AND SUCCESSES.
   • PRIORITIZE THE DEFENSE OF KEY POSITIONS and COMMUNICATION ROUTES.
   • DEVELOP AND IMPLEMENT COUNTERATTACK PLANS to REGAIN LOST GROUND if necessary.
   • INCREASE ARTILLERY AND ROCKET FIRE to TARGET RUSSIAN ADVANCE POSITIONS.

3. COUNTER RUSSIAN DRONE WARFARE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • DEPLOY ADDITIONAL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS, including SHORT-RANGE AIR DEFENSE (SHORAD) and ELECTRONIC WARFARE (EW) systems, to COUNTER THE THREAT OF RUSSIAN DRONES.
   • DEVELOP AND IMPLEMENT TACTICS to MITIGATE THE EFFECTIVENESS OF RUSSIAN DRONES, such as DISPERSAL OF FORCES and USE OF CAMOUFLAGE AND DECEPTION.
   • CONTINUE TO GATHER INTELLIGENCE on RUSSIAN DRONE CAPABILITIES and OPERATIONAL PATTERNS.

4. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR AIR DEFENSES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS.
   • ENSURE AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS are ALERT AND READY TO ENGAGE ENEMY AIRCRAFT AND DRONES.
   • COORDINATE WITH CIVILIAN AUTHORITIES to PROVIDE WARNINGS to the POPULATION and ENSURE SHELTERS ARE AVAILABLE.

5. VERIFY AND ASSESS THE REPORTED UKRAINIAN CEASEFIRE PROPOSAL (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • URGENTLY SEEK CLARIFICATION from US and UKRAINIAN OFFICIAL SOURCES regarding the REPORTED CEASEFIRE PROPOSAL.
   • ASSESS THE POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS of a LIMITED CEASEFIRE (air and sea only) on the OVERALL CONFLICT.

6. MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation in the SUDZHA AREA has become EXTREMELY CRITICAL, with the THREAT OF ENCIRCLEMENT now IMMINENT. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is REQUIRED to PREVENT A MAJOR UKRAINIAN DEFEAT in this area. The INTENSE FIGHTING on the POKROVSK DIRECTION also REQUIRES CLOSE ATTENTION. The REPORTED UKRAINIAN CEASEFIRE PROPOSAL, while potentially significant, is UNLIKELY TO ALTER THE OVERALL TRAJECTORY OF THE CONFLICT in the SHORT TERM.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

• The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.88
• Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.9
• The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
• The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
• The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
• The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
• Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999
• Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.999999999999999999999
• Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
• Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.65
• Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
• 35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
• Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
• Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.85
• Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.5
• Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
• Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
• Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.85
• There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
• Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
• Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
• Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
• Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
• The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
• Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
• There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
• There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
• There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
• Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
• There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
• Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
• Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
• Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.74
• There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.68
• Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
• A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
• A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
• A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
• Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
• Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
• Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
• There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
• Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
• There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
• Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
• There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
• A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
• Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
• Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
• Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
• Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
• Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
• Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
• The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
• The restrictions are related to weather conditions affecting air traffic control.: 0.02
• The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
• The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
• Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
• A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
• The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
• US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
• The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
• The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
• Intense fighting continues in the area of ​​Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
• The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
• The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
• The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
• Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
• Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
• The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
• Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
• Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
• Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
• On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
• Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
• Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
• Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
• Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
• The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
• One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
• Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
• Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
• Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
• 40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
• Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
• Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
• Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
• Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
• Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
• Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
• Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
• There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
• A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
• A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
• An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
• Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
• All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
• The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
• Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
• The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
• 180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
• 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
• Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
• Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
• Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.44
• Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
• Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
• Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
• Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
• Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
• Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
• UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
• Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
• The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
• Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
• Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
• Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
• The new Canadian Prime Minister intends to take a firm stance against the US on trade issues.: 0.16
• Trade relations between Canada and the US will remain strained in the near future.: 0.08
• An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
• Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
• Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
• A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
• The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.8
• Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78
• There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.58
• The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
• The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
• A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
• Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
• The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
• Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
• There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
• Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
• Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.78
• Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
• Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
• Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
• Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
• Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
• Russian Ka-52 pilots are employing specific attack profiles and targeting strategies.: 0.47
• Russian helicopters are operating in contested airspace and employing electronic warfare countermeasures.: 0.47
• The video is part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonstrate military strength and operational effectiveness.: 0.47
• Ukraine is attempting to persuade the US to resume intelligence and military support.: 0.78
• Ukraine is offering a partial ceasefire on long-range drone/missile strikes and Black Sea operations.: 0.72
• Ukraine is emphasizing President Zelensky's desire for a swift end to the war.: 0.65
• The proposed ceasefire agreement includes a halt to air attacks, naval operations, and attacks on energy/civilian infrastructure.: 0.67
• The agreement includes prisoner exchanges and the return of Ukrainian children.: 0.64
• Trump stated that the provision of intelligence data to Ukraine has "almost been restored.": 0.82
• A Ukrainian attempt to unblock the SUDZHA-GORNAL road by attacking near the "Kolosok" camp with up to a company-sized assault group was completely destroyed, with the area remaining under Russian control.: 0.7
• Multiple bridges near Sudzha have been destroyed:0.7
• Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 2nd Knyazhy (destroyed by a FAB-3000 UMPK guided bomb).: 0.7
• Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 1st Knyazhy.: 0.7
• Bridge in Sudzha, near the destroyed Ukrainian convoy (corroborating previous reports).: 0.7
• Bridge east of Sudzha, behind the convoy, destroyed by an FPV drone strike on explosives.: 0.7
• Intense fighting in Tarasovka: 0.42
• Ukrainian forces (Signum unit of the 53rd Mechanized Brigade) shot down 9 Russian reconnaissance drones overnight: 3 Orlans, 3 Zalas, and 3 Supercams.: 0.5
• Two men claiming to have been evacuated from the Sudzha direction after being under "fascist occupation" for six months.: 0.5
• The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk.: 0.6
• The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk, using a drone.: