Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 11, 2025, 12:43 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (12:12 UTC - 12:43 UTC)

1. RUSSIAN CLAIM OF LIBERATING GORKY (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (12:17 UTC): Claims that Russian forces liberated the settlement of Gorky in the Donetsk People's Republic (DNR). Includes a map showing the claimed advance.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES previous reports of RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the DONETSK REGION. IF CONFIRMED, this represents another TACTICAL GAIN for RUSSIAN FORCES. The MAP provides a VISUAL REPRESENTATION of the CLAIMED ADVANCE. URGENT VERIFICATION is NEEDED.

2. RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKES IN POLOZHSKY AND YUZHNO-DONETSK DIRECTIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad (12:18 UTC): Claims that drone operators of the 35th Army of the "Vostok" group are targeting Ukrainian infantry and equipment in the Polozhsky direction. Also claims that drone operators of the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade of the "Vostok" group are continuing to destroy Ukrainian personnel in the Yuzhno-Donetsk direction. Includes videos.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED RUSSIAN USE OF DRONES for RECONNAISSANCE AND ATTACK in MULTIPLE DIRECTIONS. The VIDEOS provide VISUAL EVIDENCE of RUSSIAN DRONE ACTIVITY. This HIGHLIGHTS RUSSIAN CAPABILITY to TARGET UKRAINIAN FORCES with PRECISION STRIKES.

3. FIERCE FIGHTING NEAR VOLNOYE POLE, BURLATSKOYE, AND DNEPROENERGIYA-RAZDOLNOYE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Военкор Котенок (12:20 UTC): Reports fierce fighting in the Novopavlovsk direction. Claims that units of the "Vostok" group broke through Ukrainian defenses on the outskirts of Volnoye Pole and are fighting closer to the center of the village. Also claims that Ukrainian positions south of the village have been taken. Reports that Ukrainian forces are being pushed out of positions north and west of Burlatskoye. Claims fierce fighting in the Dneproenergiya-Razdolnoye area. Includes a map showing the claimed situation.
   • Assessment: This INDICATES INTENSE FIGHTING in MULTIPLE LOCATIONS along the NOVOPAVLOVSK DIRECTION. The CLAIMS OF RUSSIAN ADVANCES and UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWALS suggest a DYNAMIC AND FLUID SITUATION. The MAP provides a VISUAL REPRESENTATION of the CLAIMED BATTLEFIELD SITUATION. URGENT VERIFICATION is NEEDED.

4. RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKE ON UKRAINIAN STRONGHOLD IN KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (12:21 UTC): Reports that a Russian Su-34 destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border region. Includes video.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY in the KURSK BORDER REGION. The USE OF AN Su-34 indicates a HIGH-VALUE TARGET. The VIDEO provides VISUAL EVIDENCE of the AIRSTRIKE. This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of INCREASED RUSSIAN MILITARY ACTIVITY in this area.

5. CLAIMED USE OF FAB-3000 BOMB BY RUSSIAN AIR FORCE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) (12:22 UTC): Claims that the Russian Air Force used a FAB-3000 bomb to destroy a Ukrainian fortified position in the Kursk direction. Includes video.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES EARLIER CLAIMS of the USE OF A FAB-3000 BOMB. IF CONFIRMED, this would represent a SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION in the INTENSITY OF RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES. The VIDEO appears to SHOW A LARGE EXPLOSION, but FURTHER VERIFICATION is NEEDED to CONFIRM THE TYPE OF MUNITION USED.

6. UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES ON RUSSIAN INFANTRY AND VEHICLE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • STERNENKO (12:23 UTC): Claims that Ukrainian drones of the "Predators of Heights" unit of the 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade are operating in the Pokrovsk direction. Claims that 11 Russians and a car were hit. Includes video.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED UKRAINIAN USE OF DRONES for RECONNAISSANCE AND ATTACK. The VIDEO provides VISUAL EVIDENCE of UKRAINIAN DRONE ACTIVITY. This HIGHLIGHTS UKRAINIAN CAPABILITY to TARGET RUSSIAN FORCES with PRECISION STRIKES.

7. RUSSIAN FORCES ENTER SUDZHA (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE RUSSIAN SOURCES):

   • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (12:23 UTC), Два майора (12:25 UTC): Claims that Russian forces have entered the outskirts of Sudzha. Reports that the success was made possible by a heroic operation of Russian assault groups that infiltrated Ukrainian rear areas through a gas pipeline along Martynovka. Claims that Ukrainian forces are surrounded from the east, north, and west, and that the only road for retreat is under fire control. Reports chaos and panic among Ukrainian forces in Sudzha. Includes a map.
   • Военкор Котенок (12:35 UTC): Posts a picture of Russian troops next to a gas station in Sudzha.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the SUDZHA AREA and INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION of the UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE POSITION. The CLAIMS OF A GAS PIPELINE INFILTRATION are SERIOUS and REQUIRE URGENT INVESTIGATION. The REPORTS OF UKRAINIAN FORCES BEING SURROUNDED and FACING PANIC AND RETREAT suggest a POTENTIAL COLLAPSE OF UKRAINIAN DEFENSES in the AREA. The IMAGE from VOENKOR KOTENOK provides VISUAL EVIDENCE of RUSSIAN PRESENCE in SUDZHA. URGENT VERIFICATION is ESSENTIAL.

8. UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF CLAIMS STRIKES ON RUSSIAN OIL INFRASTRUCTURE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ & Оперативний ЗСУ & РБК-Україна (12:05, 12:09, 12:10 UTC): The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine claims that Ukrainian forces, in cooperation with various intelligence and security agencies, struck a number of strategic targets within Russia overnight on March 11th. Specifically, they claim to have hit:
     • Moscow Oil Refinery: Claims to have hit the production capacity of the refinery, which reportedly supplies 40-50% of Moscow's diesel and gasoline needs.
     • "Stalnoy Kon" (Steel Horse) Linear Production Dispatch Station (Orlov Oblast, Russia): Claims explosions at this station, which manages the "Druzhba" oil pipeline and supplies oil to the "Ust-Luga" seaport terminal.
   • Assessment: IF CONFIRMED, these STRIKES would represent a MAJOR ESCALATION and a SIGNIFICANT BLOW TO RUSSIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE. The TARGETING OF THE MOSCOW OIL REFINERY is PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT, as it DIRECTLY IMPACTS RUSSIAN FUEL SUPPLIES and POTENTIALLY AFFECTS THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY. The CLAIMED DAMAGE TO THE "DRUZHBA" PIPELINE INFRASTRUCTURE is also HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT, as it THREATENS RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS. URGENT VERIFICATION is ESSENTIAL.

9. AIR RAID ALERTS AND THREATS:

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (12:36, 12:37 UTC): Reports an end of threat, then another alert warning of a rocket threat in the Sumy region.
   • Assessment: This INDICATES CONTINUED AIR ACTIVITY and POTENTIAL THREATS to UKRAINIAN TERRITORY.

10. REPORTED UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK ON RUSSIAN CAR CARRYING POWS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): * Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 & Воин DV (12:27 & 12:34): Claim that Ukrainian forces used a drone to attack a vehicle carrying Russian soldiers and captured Ukrainian soldiers in the Zaporizhzhia region.

    • Assessment: REQUIRES VERIFICATION. IF CONFIRMED, this would be a SERIOUS VIOLATION of the LAWS OF WAR.

11. UKRAINIAN SOLDIER CAPTURED (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE)

    • Николаевский Ванёк (12:40 UTC): Reports that Ukrainian forces of the Azov Brigade captured a Russian soldier.
    • Assessment: Provides further information on POWs.

12. REPORTS OF HOSTAGE SITUATION IN PAKISTAN (LOW PRIORITY, NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT):

    • WarGonzo (12:42 UTC): Reports that militants of the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) have taken over 400 passengers hostage on a train in Pakistan.
    • Assessment: NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to the SITUATION IN UKRAINE, but POTENTIALLY RELEVANT to BROADER GLOBAL SECURITY ISSUES.

13. REPORTS OF UKRAINIAN PROPAGANDA (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• Два майора (12:36) Claims to have gotten their hands on documents which state that Ukraine has been attempting to undermine Russia with propaganda since 2019.
  • Assessment: UNLIKELY to effect the current conflict, but highlights the importance of the information war.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • RUSSIAN FORCES CLAIM TO HAVE ENTERED SUDZHA, with REPORTS of UKRAINIAN FORCES RETREATING, HEAVY FIGHTING, and SIGNIFICANT UKRAINIAN CASUALTIES. The SITUATION AROUND SUDZHA remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL.
  • RUSSIAN FORCES CLAIM TO HAVE LIBERATED GORKY.
  • UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF CLAIMS STRIKES on RUSSIAN OIL INFRASTRUCTURE, including the MOSCOW OIL REFINERY and the "DRUZHBA" PIPELINE. URGENT VERIFICATION ESSENTIAL.
  • ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED EXTREME-PRIORITY ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKES in POLOZHSKY AND YUZHNO-DONETSK DIRECTIONS.
  • FIERCE FIGHTING near VOLNOYE POLE, BURLATSKOYE, AND DNEPROENERGIYA-RAZDOLNOYE.
  • RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKE on UKRAINIAN STRONGHOLD in KURSK REGION.
  • CLAIMED USE OF FAB-3000 BOMB by RUSSIAN AIR FORCE.
  • UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES on RUSSIAN INFANTRY AND VEHICLE.
  • ROCKET THREAT in SUMY OBLAST.
  • ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED HIGH-PRIORITY ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

  • REPORTED UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK on RUSSIAN CAR CARRYING POWS.
  • REPORTED Ukrainian capture of a Russian POW.
  • ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED MEDIUM-PRIORITY ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.

• LOW PRIORITY

  • HOSTAGE SITUATION IN PAKISTAN
  • REPORTS OF UKRAINIAN PROPAGANDA
  • ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED LOW-PRIORITY ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.

Updated Recommendations

1. VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN SUDZHA AND GORKY (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • URGENTLY DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to VERIFY the RUSSIAN CLAIMS of ENTERING SUDZHA and LIBERATING GORKY.
     • USE HUMAN INTELLIGENCE, SIGNAL INTELLIGENCE, and OPEN-SOURCE INTELLIGENCE to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the CLAIMS.
     • COORDINATE WITH ALLIED INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES to SHARE INFORMATION and VERIFY FINDINGS.
   • IF CONFIRMED:
     • Assess the extent of the Russian advance and DETERMINE IF UKRAINIAN DEFENSES HAVE BEEN BREACHED.
     • REINFORCE UKRAINIAN DEFENSES in the area.
     • ESTABLISH ALTERNATIVE DEFENSIVE POSITIONS.
     • CONDUCT A CONTROLLED WITHDRAWAL to PREVENT ENCIRCLEMENT of UKRAINIAN FORCES.
     • LAUNCH COUNTERATTACKS to BREAK ANY ENCIRCLEMENT.
   • IF NOT CONFIRMED:
     • Continue monitoring the SITUATION CLOSELY.
     • Prepare for potential Russian offensive operations in the AREA.

2. INVESTIGATE UKRAINIAN CLAIMS OF STRIKES ON RUSSIAN OIL INFRASTRUCTURE (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • URGENTLY DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to VERIFY the UKRAINIAN CLAIMS of STRIKES on the MOSCOW OIL REFINERY and the "DRUZHBA" PIPELINE INFRASTRUCTURE.
     • USE SIGNAL INTELLIGENCE, HUMAN INTELLIGENCE, and OPEN-SOURCE INTELLIGENCE to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the CLAIMS.
     • COORDINATE WITH ALLIED INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES to SHARE INFORMATION and VERIFY FINDINGS.
   • IF CONFIRMED:
     • Assess the extent of the damage and DETERMINE THE IMPACT on RUSSIAN FUEL SUPPLIES and OIL EXPORTS.
     • Prepare for potential Russian retaliation.
     • Develop contingency plans to MITIGATE THE IMPACT of POTENTIAL RUSSIAN RETALIATORY STRIKES.

3. INVESTIGATE RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF GAS PIPELINE INFILTRATION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • URGENTLY DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to VERIFY the RUSSIAN CLAIMS of USING A GAS PIPELINE to INFILTRATE UKRAINIAN REAR AREAS.
     • USE HUMAN INTELLIGENCE, SIGNAL INTELLIGENCE, and OPEN-SOURCE INTELLIGENCE to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the CLAIMS.
     • COORDINATE WITH ALLIED INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES to SHARE INFORMATION and VERIFY FINDINGS.
   • IF CONFIRMED:
     • Assess the vulnerability of other critical infrastructure to SIMILAR INFILTRATION TACTICS.
     • Develop security measures to PREVENT FUTURE INFILTRATIONS.

4. ADDRESS THE ROCKET THREAT IN SUMY OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN HEIGHTENED ALERT STATUS for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS in SUMY OBLAST.
   • ISSUE PUBLIC WARNINGS and SAFETY ADVISORIES.

5. INVESTIGATE REPORTED UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK ON RUSSIAN CAR CARRYING POWS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • GATHER ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE on the REPORTED INCIDENT.
   • IF CONFIRMED, ISSUE A PUBLIC STATEMENT condemning the ATTACK and REITERATING UKRAINE'S COMMITMENT to the LAWS OF WAR.

6. MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES)

The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND DYNAMIC. The RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF ADVANCES in SUDZHA AND GORKY, the UKRAINIAN CLAIMS OF STRIKES ON RUSSIAN OIL INFRASTRUCTURE, and the REPORTS OF A GAS PIPELINE INFILTRATION represent MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS that REQUIRE IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION. The CONTINUED AIR ACTIVITY and DRONE STRIKES highlight the ONGOING THREATS to BOTH SIDES. ACCURATE INTELLIGENCE GATHERING and EFFECTIVE COMMUNICATION are MORE IMPORTANT THAN EVER.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

• The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.68
• Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.62
• The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
• The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
• The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
• The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
• Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.9999999999999999999999999999999
• Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.999999
• Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
• Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.65
• Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
• 35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
• Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
• Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.45
• Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.25
• Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
• Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
• Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.65
• There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
• Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
• Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
• Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
• Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
• The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
• Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
• There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
• There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
• There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
• Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
• There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
• Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
• Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
• Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.57
• There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.68
• Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
• A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
• A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
• A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
• Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
• Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
• Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
• There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
• Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
• There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
• Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
• There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
• A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
• Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
• Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
• Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
• Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
• Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
• Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
• The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
• The restrictions are related to weather conditions affecting air traffic control.: 0.02
• The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
• The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
• Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
• A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
• The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
• US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
• The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
• The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
• Intense fighting continues in the area of ​​Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
• The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
• The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
• The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
• Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
• Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
• The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
• Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
• Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
• Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
• On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
• Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
• Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
• Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
• Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
• The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
• One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
• Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
• Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
• Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
• 40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
• Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
• Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
• Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
• Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
• Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
• Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
• Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
• There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
• A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
• A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
• An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
• Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
• All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
• The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
• Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
• The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
• 180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
• 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
• Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
• Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
• Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.44
• Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
• Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
• Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
• Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
• Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
• Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
• UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
• Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
• The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
• Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
• Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
• Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
• The new Canadian Prime Minister intends to take a firm stance against the US on trade issues.: 0.16
• Trade relations between Canada and the US will remain strained in the near future.: 0.08
• An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
• Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
• Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
• A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
• The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.8
• Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78
• There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.58
• The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
• The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
• A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
• Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
• The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
• Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
• There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
• Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
• Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.78
• Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
• Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
• Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
• Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
• Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
• Russian Ka-52 pilots are employing specific attack profiles and targeting strategies.: 0.47
• Russian helicopters are operating in contested airspace and employing electronic warfare countermeasures.: 0.47
• The video is part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonstrate military strength and operational effectiveness.: 0.47
• Ukraine is attempting to persuade the US to resume intelligence and military support.: 0.78
• Ukraine is offering a partial ceasefire on long-range drone/missile strikes and Black Sea operations.: 0.72
• Ukraine is emphasizing President Zelensky's desire for a swift end to the war.: 0.65
• The proposed ceasefire agreement includes a halt to air attacks, naval operations, and attacks on energy/civilian infrastructure.: 0.67
• The agreement includes prisoner exchanges and the return of Ukrainian children.: 0.64
• Trump stated that the provision of intelligence data to Ukraine has "almost been restored.": 0.82
• A Ukrainian attempt to unblock the SUDZHA-GORNAL road by attacking near the "Kolosok" camp with up to a company-sized assault group was completely destroyed, with the area remaining under Russian control.: 0.7
• Multiple bridges near Sudzha have been destroyed:0.7
• Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 2nd Knyazhy (destroyed by a FAB-3000 UMPK guided bomb).: 0.7
• Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 1st Knyazhy.: 0.7
• Bridge in Sudzha, near the destroyed Ukrainian convoy (corroborating previous reports).: 0.7
• Bridge east of Sudzha, behind the convoy, destroyed by an FPV drone strike on explosives.: 0.7
• Intense fighting in Tarasovka: 0.42
• Ukrainian forces (Signum unit of the 53rd Mechanized Brigade) shot down 9 Russian reconnaissance drones overnight: 3 Orlans, 3 Zalas, and 3 Supercams.: 0.5
• Two men claiming to have been evacuated from the Sudzha direction after being under "fascist occupation" for six months.: 0.5
• The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk.: 0.6
• The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk, using a drone.: 0.7
• An "Inokhodets" drone was used to kill up to 50 enemy personnel.: 0.25
• A fiber-optic controlled FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian soldier and ambushed an armored vehicle in the Kursk region.: 0.6
• A Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) raid on a gas platform near the Golitsynskoye gas field in the Black Sea on the night of March 7-8.: 0.