Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 11, 2025, 10:12 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (09:44 UTC - 10:12 UTC)

1. KURSK REGION: CONTINUED FIGHTING, RUSSIAN ADVANCES, UKRAINIAN LOSSES (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Kadyrov_95 (10:07 UTC) Reports on captured Ukrainian soldiers in the area of CHERKASSKOE PORECHNOE, SUDZHANSKY DISTRICT. Claims four soldiers survived, the rest were killed. Claims the Ukrainian command abandoned them.
     • Assessment: This report, if accurate, FURTHER INDICATES UKRAINIAN FORCES ARE SUFFERING HEAVY LOSSES in this area. The CLAIM OF ABANDONMENT BY COMMAND is LIKELY PROPAGANDA, but should be INVESTIGATED. CONFIRMATION of CAPTURED SOLDIERS SUPPORTS PREVIOUS REPORTS of RUSSIAN ADVANCES.

• Operatsiya Z (10:07 UTC) reports that Russian troops have liberated Lebedevka. Claims part of the Ukrainian forces surrendered. * Assessment: Further Russian advances are made in the area.

2. KURSK REGION: RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR SUDZHA (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad (10:03 UTC): Shows a photo of a Russian soldier from the "Veterans" unit in front of a sign for SUDZHA.
   • Сливочный каприз (09:49 UTC): Reports active combat operations in the SUDZHA - LEBEDEVKA area. Claims a Russian infantry attack with sapper-assault group UNDERMINED A UKRAINIAN POSITION in the CENTER OF LEBEDEVKA. Claims a RUSSIAN ADVANCE OF OVER 600 METERS in an EASTERLY DIRECTION. Provides geolocation (0:10 51.258230 35.183862) and cites a source (vdv_106/1678?single).
     • Video Analysis (Сливочный каприз): Confirms DESTRUCTION OF BUILDINGS IN A RURAL AREA, likely by DRONE-DROPPED MUNITIONS.
     • Assessment: These reports STRONGLY SUGGEST RUSSIAN FORCES ARE IN OR VERY NEAR SUDZHA. The PHOTO EVIDENCE, combined with DETAILED REPORTS OF FIGHTING and CLAIMS OF ADVANCES, paints a CRITICAL PICTURE. URGENT VERIFICATION is NEEDED. The report of UNDERMINING A UKRAINIAN POSITION suggests RUSSIAN FORCES ARE USING ENGINEER TACTICS to OVERCOME DEFENSES.

3. KURSK REGION: UKRAINIAN CLAIMS OF REPELLING ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 (10:06 UTC): Reports repelling four attacks near VOVCHANSK. Claims to have destroyed 89 enemy personnel (42 killed), 94 units of enemy equipment (including 5 artillery systems, 14 vehicles, 2 EW systems, 10 units of special equipment, 63 UAVs), and 62 shelters. Reports 3 air strikes (5 KABs), 76 kamikaze drones, and 540 artillery rounds.
     • Assessment: This report CONFLICTS WITH THE OVERWHELMING EVIDENCE of RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the KURSK REGION. The CLAIMED LOSSES inflicted on RUSSIAN FORCES are LIKELY EXAGGERATED. The SPECIFICITY of the EQUIPMENT LOSSES is NOTABLE, but REQUIRES INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION. The REPORT OF AIRSTRIKES AND ARTILLERY BARRAGES CONFIRMS CONTINUED INTENSE FIGHTING.

4. KHARKIV REGION: CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Liveuamap Source (09:50 UTC): Reports Russian airstrikes at MALA VOVCHA, Kharkiv region.
   • Liveuamap Source (09:51): Clashes yesterday near VOVCHANSK. * Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY in the KHARKIV REGION, supporting GROUND OPERATIONS and potentially TARGETING UKRAINIAN DEFENSES.

5. KUPYANSK, LYMAN, SIVERSK, KRAMATORSK, TORETSK, POKROVSK, NOVOPAVLIVKA, ORIKHIV, HULIAIPOLE, KHERSON AXES: CLASHES REPORTED (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

• Liveuamap Source (09:51 UTC): Reports clashes near LOZOVA, PETROPAVLIVKA, STEPOVA NOVOSELIVKA, BOHUSLAVKA (Kupyansk axis); NOVE, HREKIVKA, NOVOMYKHAYLIVKA, KOLODYAZI, ZELENA DOLYNA, ZARICHNE, YAMPOLIVKA, NOVOLUBIVKA, TORSKE (Lyman axis); BILOHORIVKA, FEDORIVKA, VERKHNOKAMYANSKE (Siversk axis); CHASIV YAR, BILA HORA (Kramatorsk axis); DACHNE, KURDUMIVKA, KRYSKE, DRUZHBA, TORETSK, SCHERBYNIVKA (Toretsk axis); VALENTYNIIVKA, YELYZAVETIVKA, PROMIN, LYSIVKA, POKROVSK, UDACHNE, KOTLYARIVKA, OLEKSIIVKA, ANDRIIVKA (Pokrovsk axis); KOSTYANTYNOPIL, ROZLYV, SKUDNE, BURLATSKE, towards VESEL (Novopavlivka axis); NOVODANYLIVKA, PYATYKHATKY, SCHERBAKY, STEPOVE (Orikhiv axis); NOVOSILKA, PRYVILNE (Huliaipole axis); one Russian assault repelled (Kherson axis).
  • Assessment: These reports CONFIRM WIDESPREAD FIGHTING ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS. The INTENSITY AND LOCATIONS of the CLASHES suggest ONGOING RUSSIAN EFFORTS to ADVANCE and UKRAINIAN EFFORTS to DEFEND.

6. ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION: ENEMY DRONE ACTIVITY (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (09:54 UTC): Reports an ENEMY RECONNAISSANCE UAV in the ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION. Air defense systems are engaged.
     • Assessment: This CONFIRMS ONGOING RUSSIAN RECONNAISSANCE EFFORTS in the ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION, likely to GATHER INTELLIGENCE on UKRAINIAN POSITIONS and MOVEMENTS.

7. US-UKRAINE-SAUDI ARABIA MEETING (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Multiple sources confirm the meeting is underway, with constructive beginnings reported.
     • Assessment: The MEETING CONTINUES, with POSITIVE INITIAL REPORTS. The OUTCOME remains UNCERTAIN, but the ENGAGEMENT itself is SIGNIFICANT.

8. OTHER DEVELOPMENTS:

• MoD Russia (09:16 UTC): Claims the liberation of 12 settlements and more than 100 square km in the Kursk Region. Claims AFU losses include up to 66,550 soldiers, 391 tanks, 311 infantry vehicles, and other significant equipment losses. * Assessment: Claims should be treated with extreme caution, and are likely to be exaggerated.
• Alex Parker Returns (09:38 UTC): Claims all is bad.
• MoD Russia (09:28): Same reports as previously.
• TASS (09:28): Reports that traces of amphetamine and marijuana were detected in a driver who hit people.
• Дневник Десантника (09:24): Claims need of Mavic 3 drones.
• ASTRA (09:06) Report that the US wants to change a phrase in a G7 announcement.
• Alex Parker Returns (09:46): Claims that Yermak will betray the Ukrainian people.
• TASS (09:48): Reports that a participant in the attempted assassination of Oleg Tsaryov has been sentenced.
• Liveuamap Source (09:50): Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Mala Vovcha of Kharkiv region, Leontovychi, Sukhyy Yar, Voskresenka, Shevchenko of Donetsk region, Novoheorhiyivka of Zaporizhzhia region, Novodarivka, Hulyaypole, Zaliznychne, Mala Tokmachka of Zaporizhzhia region, Lvove of Kherson region,
• Alex Parker Returns (10:00): Claims that the Russian Ministry of Defense reported on the liberation of 12 settlements.
• TASS (10:00): Reports that Dmitry Peskov will give a press conference.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE IN THE KURSK REGION CONTINUES, with CONFIRMED ADVANCES and CLAIMS of SIGNIFICANT TERRITORIAL GAINS and UKRAINIAN LOSSES. INTENSE FIGHTING continues NEAR SUDZHA, with RUSSIAN FORCES REPORTEDLY IN OR VERY NEAR THE TOWN. UKRAINIAN FORCES ARE RESISTING, with REPORTED COUNTERATTACKS and CLAIMS OF REPELLING ATTACKS, but RUSSIAN FORCES APPEAR TO HAVE THE INITIATIVE AND ARE MAKING GAINS.

• REPORTS OF CAPTURED UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS in CHERKASSKOE PORECHNOE area.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • THREAT OF AIRSTRIKES and DRONE ACTIVITY in EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN UKRAINE.
  • WIDESPREAD FIGHTING reported ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS.

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

  • US-UKRAINE-SAUDI ARABIA MEETING CONTINUES, with REPORTS OF CONSTRUCTIVE BEGINNINGS.
  • CONFIRMED RUSSIAN RECONNAISSANCE DRONE ACTIVITY in the ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION.

Updated Recommendations

1. ADDRESS THE RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE IN THE KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Maintain all previous recommendations, with INCREASED URGENCY.
   • URGENTLY VERIFY the STATUS OF SUDZHA and SURROUNDING AREAS. Determine the EXTENT OF RUSSIAN CONTROL and the LOCATION AND CONDITION OF UKRAINIAN FORCES.
     • DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS, including SATELLITE IMAGERY, DRONE RECONNAISSANCE, and HUMAN INTELLIGENCE, to GATHER REAL-TIME INFORMATION.
   • ASSESS THE RISK OF ENCIRCLEMENT of UKRAINIAN FORCES and DEVELOP CONTINGENCY PLANS for POTENTIAL WITHDRAWALS if necessary. PRIORITIZE THE SAFETY OF PERSONNEL and the PRESERVATION OF EQUIPMENT.
   • REINFORCE UKRAINIAN DEFENSES where possible to SLOW DOWN RUSSIAN ADVANCES.
   • PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL COUNTEROFFENSIVES to REGAIN LOST TERRITORY, but ONLY WHEN CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE.
   • ASSESS THE FEASIBILITY of HOLDING CURRENT POSITIONS and MAKE DIFFICULT DECISIONS if necessary.
   • PRIORITIZE the SAFETY and EXTRACTION of UKRAINIAN TROOPS and CIVILIANS in DANGER OF ENCIRCLEMENT.
   • INVESTIGATE the REPORTS OF CAPTURED UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS in CHERKASSKOE PORECHNOE. Determine the CIRCUMSTANCES OF THEIR CAPTURE and ASSESS THE IMPACT ON MORALE.

2. ADDRESS THE THREAT OF AIRSTRIKES AND DRONE ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS across EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN UKRAINE.
   • ISSUE WARNINGS to CIVILIAN POPULATIONS in AREAS UNDER THREAT.
   • DISPERSE CRITICAL ASSETS and PERSONNEL to MITIGATE POTENTIAL DAMAGE.
   • ENGAGE RUSSIAN RECONNAISSANCE DRONES in the ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION.

3. MONITOR THE US-UKRAINE-SAUDI ARABIA MEETING (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • CONTINUE TO GATHER INTELLIGENCE on the DISCUSSIONS AND OUTCOMES of the MEETING.
   • ASSESS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT on MILITARY AID, DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS, and REGIONAL DYNAMICS.

4. MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

5. VERIFY AND RESPOND TO REPORTS OF FIGHTING FOR DNEPROENERGIYA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS ACTIONS.

6. VERIFY AND RESPOND TO REPORTED DRONE ATTACKS ON RUSSIAN TERRITORY (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS ACTIONS.

7. ADDRESS CONTINUED RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACKS TARGETING CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE ASSETS to INVESTIGATE THE ATTACKS on BALAKLIIA and KOCHOTOK.
   • PROVIDE IMMEDIATE ASSISTANCE to CIVILIANS AFFECTED by the ATTACKS.
   • INCREASE AIR DEFENSE PRESENCE in KHARKIV OBLAST to COUNTER FURTHER DRONE ATTACKS.

8. MONITOR AND RESPOND TO GUIDED AERIAL BOMB LAUNCHES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS in KHARKIV and SUMY OBLASTS.
   • ISSUE WARNINGS to CIVILIAN POPULATIONS in AFFECTED AREAS.
   • TRACK LAUNCH LOCATIONS for POTENTIAL COUNTER-BATTERY FIRE.

9. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT STATUS FOR ALL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS ACTIONS.

The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND DYNAMIC. The RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE in the KURSK REGION is the MOST SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, with RUSSIAN FORCES MAKING GAINS and POSING A SERIOUS THREAT TO SUDZHA. WIDESPREAD FIGHTING ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS and the CONTINUED THREAT OF AIRSTRIKES AND DRONE ATTACKS require CONSTANT VIGILANCE AND RAPID RESPONSE. The US-UKRAINE-SAUDI ARABIA MEETING is IMPORTANT and needs to be CLOSELY MONITORED.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

• The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.68
• Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.62
• The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
• The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
• The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
• The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
• Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.999999999999999999
• Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.999999
• Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
• Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.65
• Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
• 35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
• Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
• Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.45
• Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.25
• Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
• Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
• Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.65
• There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
• Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
• Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
• Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
• Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
• The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
• Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
• There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
• There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
• There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
• Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
• There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
• Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
• Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
• Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.57
• There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.68
• Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
• A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
• A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
• A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
• Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
• Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
• Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
• There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
• Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
• There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
• Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
• There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
• A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
• Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
• Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
• Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
• Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
• Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
• Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
• The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
• The restrictions are related to weather conditions affecting air traffic control.: 0.02
• The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
• The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
• Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
• A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
• The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
• US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
• The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
• The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
• Intense fighting continues in the area of ​​Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
• The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
• The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
• The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
• Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
• Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
• The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
• Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
• Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
• Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
• On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
• Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
• Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
• Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
• Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
• The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
• One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
• Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
• Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
• Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
• 40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
• Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
• Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
• Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
• Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
• Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
• Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
• Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
• There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
• A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
• A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
• An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
• Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
• All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
• The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
• Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
• The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
• 180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
• 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
• Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
• Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
• Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.44
• Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
• Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
• Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
• Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
• Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
• Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
• UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
• Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
• The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
• Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
• Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
• Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
• The new Canadian Prime Minister intends to take a firm stance against the US on trade issues.: 0.16
• Trade relations between Canada and the US will remain strained in the near future.: 0.08
• An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
• Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
• Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
• A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
• The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.8
• Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78
• There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.58
• The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
• The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
• A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
• Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
• The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
• Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
• There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
• Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
• Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.78
• Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
• Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
• Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
• Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
• Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
• Russian Ka-52 pilots are employing specific attack profiles and targeting strategies.: 0.47
• Russian helicopters are operating in contested airspace and employing electronic warfare countermeasures.: 0.47
• The video is part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonstrate military strength and operational effectiveness.: 0.47
• Ukraine is attempting to persuade the US to resume intelligence and military support.: 0.78
• Ukraine is offering a partial ceasefire on long-range drone/missile strikes and Black Sea operations.: 0.72
• Ukraine is emphasizing President Zelensky's desire for a swift end to the war.: 0.65
• The proposed ceasefire agreement includes a halt to air attacks, naval operations, and attacks on energy/civilian infrastructure.: 0.67
• The agreement includes prisoner exchanges and the return of Ukrainian children.: 0.64
• Trump stated that the provision of intelligence data to Ukraine has "almost been restored.": 0.82
• A Ukrainian attempt to unblock the SUDZHA-GORNAL road by attacking near the "Kolosok" camp with up to a company-sized assault group was completely destroyed, with the area remaining under Russian control.: 0.7
• Multiple bridges near Sudzha have been destroyed:0.7
• Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 2nd Knyazhy (destroyed by a FAB-3000 UMPK guided bomb).: 0.7
• Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 1st Knyazhy.: 0.7
• Bridge in Sudzha, near the destroyed Ukrainian convoy (corroborating previous reports).: 0.7
• Bridge east of Sudzha, behind the convoy, destroyed by an FPV drone strike on explosives.: 0.7
• Intense fighting in Tarasovka: 0.42
• Ukrainian forces (Signum unit of the 53rd Mechanized Brigade) shot down 9 Russian reconnaissance drones overnight: 3 Orlans, 3 Zalas, and 3 Supercams.: 0.5
• Two men claiming to have been evacuated from the Sudzha direction after being under "fascist occupation" for six months.: 0.5
• The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk.: 0.6
• The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk, using a drone.: 0.7
• An "Inokhodets" drone was used to kill up to 50 enemy personnel.: 0.25
• A fiber-optic controlled FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian soldier and ambushed an armored vehicle in the Kursk region.: 0.6
• A Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) raid on a gas platform near the Golitsynskoye gas field in the Black Sea on the night of March 7-8.: 0.7
• Two boats were supposedly destroyed.: 0.6
• Ukraine is prioritizing domestic weapons production, including rockets, drones, and long-range weapons, despite the continued value of foreign weapons.: 0.7
• Kremlin spokesman Peskov denies reports of US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia this week.: 0.7
• Damage to the roof of a building at the "Konservsushzavod" plant in Starodub, Bryansk region, Russia, after a UAV attack was confirmed.: 0.7
• Alawite leaders in Syria requested protection from Israel.: 0.3
• Mothers of deceased soldiers in Udmurtia are being sent to a monastery for rehabilitation.: 0.5
• A drone will be sent to soldiers.: 0.4
• Quad bikes are requested for soldiers.: 0.6
• An image of "Iskander" systems launching missiles has no strategic impact.: 0.1
• Russian forces reportedly captured Lebedevka and advanced 1km towards Sudzha from the west.: 0.86
• Ukrainian forces reportedly repelled six attacks near Vovchansk.: 0.49
• Martynovka is surrounded.: 0.78
• The Sudzha industrial zone is under Russian control.: 0.63
• Ukrainian forces continue to launch guided aerial bombs in the Kharkiv region.: 0.84
• Ukraine can access Maxar imagery through its allies.: 0.56
• Elon Musk claims that the war will end quickly if sanctions are imposed on Ukrainian oligarchs.: 0.1
• International support continues for Ukraine.: 0.68
• The US wants to change the language of the G7 agreement to downplay Russian aggression.: 0.5
• The US HIMARS system and 10 Ukrainian soldiers were destroyed by an Iskander missile.: 0.2
• Sudzha is under fire.: 0.8
• Russian forces liberated Lebedev