Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 11, 2025, 09:12 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (08:43 UTC - 09:12 UTC)

KURSK REGION: CONTINUED FIGHTING, RUSSIAN ADVANCES, UKRAINIAN LOSSES (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN MOD):
- Multiple sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (08:51 UTC, 08:52 UTC, 09:11 UTC) and various war correspondents (Colonelcassad 08:56, Poddubny 09:06, Dnevnik Desantnika 09:11), report significant RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the KURSK REGION.
  - CLAIMED CAPTURE OF 12 SETTLEMENTS: Aгроном, Богдановка, Бондаревка, Дмитрюков, Зазулевка, Ивашковский, Колмаков, Кубаткин, Мартыновка, Михайловка, Правда, Южный, and Косица.
  - CLAIMED LIBERATION OF OVER 100 SQUARE KILOMETERS of territory.
  - CLAIMED UKRAINIAN LOSSES: Over 270 MILITARY PERSONNEL, TWO TANKS, FOUR BMPs, and a BUK-M1 AIR DEFENSE SYSTEM.
  - CLAIMED UKRAINIAN SURRENDERS: TWELVE UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS reportedly surrendered.
- Военкор Котенок (08:55 UTC): Reports INTENSE FIGHTING in a 6.5 x 12 KM RECTANGLE near SUDZHA, with RUSSIAN ARTILLERY targeting UKRAINIAN FORCES. Claims UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACKS by the 225TH SEPARATE ASSAULT BATTALION and "AIDAR" units FAILED. Reports UKRAINIAN ATTEMPTS to CROSS the LOKNYA RIVER south of KAZACHYA LOKNYA and the POPADYA RIVER.
  - Assessment: These reports CONFIRM A MAJOR RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE in the KURSK REGION. The CLAIMS of CAPTURED SETTLEMENTS, TERRITORIAL GAINS, and UKRAINIAN LOSSES are SIGNIFICANT, but REQUIRE INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION. The RUSSIAN MOD REPORTS should be treated with CAUTION, as they are LIKELY TO BE INFLATED. The reports from VARIOUS WAR CORRESPONDENTS provide ADDITIONAL DETAIL and CORROBORATION, but also REFLECT A PRO-RUSSIAN BIAS. The INTENSE FIGHTING near SUDZHA indicates that UKRAINIAN FORCES ARE RESISTING, despite the REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES. The FAILED UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACKS suggest that RUSSIAN FORCES HAVE GAINED THE INITIATIVE in this AREA. The attempts to CROSS RIVERS highlight the IMPORTANCE OF GEOGRAPHICAL FEATURES in the CONFLICT.
MOSCOW REGION: DRONE ATTACK AFTERMATH, DEBRIS FOUND (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):
- ТАСС (08:45 UTC): Reports that DEBRIS from a UKRAINIAN UAV was FOUND AND NEUTRALIZED in KAPOTNYA, Moscow.
- ТАСС (09:02 UTC): Reports an ATTACK DRONE found in CHERNOGOLOVKA, Moscow region, and demined. * Assessment: These reports CONFIRM the DRONE ATTACK on the MOSCOW REGION and indicate that UKRAINIAN UAVs PENETRATED DEEP INTO RUSSIAN TERRITORY. The DISCOVERY OF DEBRIS provides PHYSICAL EVIDENCE of the ATTACK. The NEUTRALIZATION of the DEBRIS suggests that RUSSIAN AUTHORITIES ARE TAKING MEASURES to MITIGATE POTENTIAL THREATS.
KRAMATORSK: PRECISION STRIKE ON DRONE COMPONENT WAREHOUSE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
- Colonelcassad (09:02 UTC): Reports a RUSSIAN PRECISION STRIKE on a WAREHOUSE in KRAMATORSK used to STORE COMPONENTS FOR UKRAINIAN ATTACK DRONES. Claims the WAREHOUSE was located on the territory of a MUNICIPAL ENTERPRISE ("Ritual Service"). Provides COORDINATES: 48.7120044, 37.5356765.
  - CLAIMED RESULTS: COMPLETE DESTRUCTION of the ADMINISTRATIVE BUILDING, LOCAL DETONATION of MUNITIONS, DAMAGE to TWO WAREHOUSES, DAMAGE to POWER LINES, and DAMAGE to a NEARBY APARTMENT BUILDING.
  - Assessment: This report, if confirmed, indicates a SUCCESSFUL RUSSIAN STRIKE on a MILITARILY SIGNIFICANT TARGET. Targeting a DRONE COMPONENT WAREHOUSE would DISRUPT UKRAINIAN UAV OPERATIONS and DEGRADE THEIR CAPABILITY to CONDUCT ATTACKS. The CLAIM that the WAREHOUSE was located on the TERRITORY OF A MUNICIPAL ENTERPRISE suggests that UKRAINIAN FORCES ARE USING CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE for MILITARY PURPOSES. The REPORTED DAMAGE to a NEARBY APARTMENT BUILDING highlights the RISK OF COLLATERAL DAMAGE in URBAN WARFARE. FURTHER VERIFICATION is needed to CONFIRM the DETAILS of the STRIKE and the EXTENT OF THE DAMAGE.
US-UKRAINE MEETING IN JEDDAH (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
- Operativny ZSU, Tsaplienko, and Dva Mayora (various times) report on the MEETING between US AND UKRAINIAN DELEGATIONS in JEDDAH, SAUDI ARABIA.
  - UKRAINIAN DELEGATION: Andriy Yermak (Head of the Presidential Office), Andriy Sybiha (Foreign Minister), and Rustem Umerov (Defense Minister).
  - US DELEGATION: Marco Rubio (Secretary of State) and Mike Waltz (National Security Advisor).
  - Assessment: This MEETING is SIGNIFICANT as it brings together HIGH-LEVEL REPRESENTATIVES from BOTH COUNTRIES to DISCUSS the CONFLICT and POTENTIAL FUTURE COOPERATION. The LOCATION in SAUDI ARABIA suggests that the SAUDI GOVERNMENT is playing a MEDIATING ROLE. The OUTCOME of the MEETING could have MAJOR IMPLICATIONS for the FUTURE OF THE CONFLICT, including US MILITARY AID to UKRAINE.
EASTERN DIRECTION: ENEMY TACTICAL AVIATION ACTIVE, THREAT OF AIRSTRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (09:02 UTC): Reports ENEMY TACTICAL AVIATION ACTIVITY in the EASTERN DIRECTION and warns of a THREAT OF AIRSTRIKES for FRONTLINE REGIONS.
- Assessment: This highlights an IMMEDIATE THREAT to UKRAINIAN FORCES AND CIVILIANS in the EAST. AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS should be on HIGH ALERT, and CIVILIANS in AFFECTED AREAS should be WARNED to TAKE SHELTER.

OTHER DEVELOPMENTS:
- Neinsider (05:49 UTC): Reports that Russian air defense systems intercepted and destroyed 337 Ukrainian UAVs overnight. Claims this to be the most massive raid.
- Colonelcassad (08:43 UTC): Claims that the detection and guidance of the recent UAV attack on Moscow was carried out by Finnish ICEYE commercial satellites.
- Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (09:00 UTC): Reports that two were killed and 18 injured during the attack on Moscow.
- Basurin (08:56): Reports that Ukraine continues using reconnaissance and communications.

Colonelcassad (08:56): states that Russian forces of the "North" group liberated 12 settlements and more than 100 square kilometers of territory.

Updated Situation Summary

EXTREME PRIORITY:
- RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE IN THE KURSK REGION CONTINUES, with CONFIRMED ADVANCES and CLAIMS of SIGNIFICANT TERRITORIAL GAINS and UKRAINIAN LOSSES. INTENSE FIGHTING continues near SUDZHA. UKRAINIAN FORCES ARE RESISTING, but RUSSIAN FORCES APPEAR TO HAVE THE INITIATIVE.
- REPORTED RUSSIAN PRECISION STRIKE on a DRONE COMPONENT WAREHOUSE in KRAMATORSK. This could SIGNIFICANTLY DISRUPT UKRAINIAN UAV OPERATIONS if CONFIRMED.
HIGH PRIORITY:
- DRONE ATTACK ON THE MOSCOW REGION. DEBRIS from UKRAINIAN UAVs found in MULTIPLE LOCATIONS, confirming the DEEP PENETRATION of RUSSIAN AIRSPACE.
- THREAT OF AIRSTRIKES in EASTERN UKRAINE due to ENEMY TACTICAL AVIATION ACTIVITY.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
- US-UKRAINE MEETING in JEDDAH is UNDERWAY. The OUTCOME could have MAJOR IMPLICATIONS for the FUTURE OF THE CONFLICT.

Updated Recommendations

ADDRESS THE RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE IN THE KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- Maintain all previous recommendations, with INCREASED URGENCY.
- URGENTLY VERIFY the CLAIMS of CAPTURED SETTLEMENTS, TERRITORIAL GAINS, and UKRAINIAN LOSSES.
  - DEPLOY INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to GATHER INFORMATION on the GROUND SITUATION.
  - USE SATELLITE IMAGERY, DRONE RECONNAISSANCE, and HUMAN INTELLIGENCE to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the RUSSIAN CLAIMS.
- REINFORCE UKRAINIAN DEFENSES where possible to PREVENT FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCES.
- DEVELOP CONTINGENCY PLANS for POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVES to REGAIN LOST TERRITORY.
- ASSESS THE FEASIBILITY of HOLDING CURRENT POSITIONS and PLAN FOR POTENTIAL WITHDRAWALS if necessary.
- PRIORITIZE the SAFETY and EXTRACTION of UKRAINIAN TROOPS in DANGER OF ENCIRCLEMENT.
INVESTIGATE AND RESPOND TO THE REPORTED STRIKE IN KRAMATORSK (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- DEPLOY INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to CONFIRM the STRIKE and ASSESS THE DAMAGE to the REPORTED DRONE COMPONENT WAREHOUSE.
  - USE SATELLITE IMAGERY, DRONE RECONNAISSANCE, and HUMAN INTELLIGENCE to GATHER INFORMATION.
- ASSESS THE IMPACT on UKRAINIAN UAV OPERATIONS.
- DETERMINE if CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE was used for MILITARY PURPOSES.
- PROVIDE ASSISTANCE to any CIVILIANS AFFECTED by the STRIKE.
ADDRESS THE THREAT OF AIRSTRIKES IN EASTERN UKRAINE (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
- MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT for RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES in EASTERN UKRAINE.
- ACTIVATE AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS and ISSUE WARNINGS to CIVILIAN POPULATIONS.
- DISPERSE CRITICAL ASSETS and PERSONNEL to MITIGATE POTENTIAL DAMAGE.
CONTINUE MONITORING THE AFTERMATH OF THE DRONE ATTACK ON THE MOSCOW REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUED ACTION):
- Maintain all previous recommendations.
- GATHER INFORMATION on CASUALTIES and DAMAGE.
- MONITOR FOR ANY FURTHER DRONE ACTIVITY.
MONITOR THE US-UKRAINE MEETING (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
- CLOSELY MONITOR the MEETING in JEDDAH for any SIGNIFICANT OUTCOMES or STATEMENTS.
- ASSESS THE IMPLICATIONS for US MILITARY AID and SECURITY COOPERATION with UKRAINE.
MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND DYNAMIC. The RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE in the KURSK REGION is the MOST SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, requiring IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION. The REPORTED STRIKE in KRAMATORSK and the THREAT OF AIRSTRIKES in EASTERN UKRAINE also REQUIRE URGENT ATTENTION. The DRONE ATTACK on the MOSCOW REGION and the US-UKRAINE MEETING are IMPORTANT DEVELOPMENTS that need to be CLOSELY MONITORED.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.68
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.62
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.9999999999999999
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.92
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.65
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.45
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.25
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.65
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.57
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.68
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are related to weather conditions affecting air traffic control.: 0.02
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.44
Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
The new Canadian Prime Minister intends to take a firm stance against the US on trade issues.: 0.16
Trade relations between Canada and the US will remain strained in the near future.: 0.08
An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.74
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78
There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.58
The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.78
Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
Russian Ka-52 pilots are employing specific attack profiles and targeting strategies.: 0.47
Russian helicopters are operating in contested airspace and employing electronic warfare countermeasures.: 0.47
The video is part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonstrate military strength and operational effectiveness.: 0.47
Ukraine is attempting to persuade the US to resume intelligence and military support.: 0.78
Ukraine is offering a partial ceasefire on long-range drone/missile strikes and Black Sea operations.: 0.72
Ukraine is emphasizing President Zelensky's desire for a swift end to the war.: 0.65
The proposed ceasefire agreement includes a halt to air attacks, naval operations, and attacks on energy/civilian infrastructure.: 0.67
The agreement includes prisoner exchanges and the return of Ukrainian children.: 0.64
Trump stated that the provision of intelligence data to Ukraine has "almost been restored.": 0.82
A Ukrainian attempt to unblock the SUDZHA-GORNAL road by attacking near the "Kolosok" camp with up to a company-sized assault group was completely destroyed, with the area remaining under Russian control.: 0.7
Multiple bridges near Sudzha have been destroyed:0.7
Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 2nd Knyazhy (destroyed by a FAB-3000 UMPK guided bomb).: 0.7
Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 1st Knyazhy.: 0.7
Bridge in Sudzha, near the destroyed Ukrainian convoy (corroborating previous reports).: 0.7
Bridge east of Sudzha, behind the convoy, destroyed by an FPV drone strike on explosives.: 0.7
Intense fighting in Tarasovka: 0.42
Ukrainian forces (Signum unit of the 53rd Mechanized Brigade) shot down 9 Russian reconnaissance drones overnight: 3 Orlans, 3 Zalas, and 3 Supercams.: 0.5
Two men claiming to have been evacuated from the Sudzha direction after being under "fascist occupation" for six months.: 0.5
The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk.: 0.6
The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk, using a drone.: 0.7
An "Inokhodets" drone was used to kill up to 50 enemy personnel.: 0.25
A fiber-optic controlled FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian soldier and ambushed an armored vehicle in the Kursk region.: 0.6
A Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) raid on a gas platform near the Golitsynskoye gas field in the Black Sea on the night of March 7-8.: 0.7
Two boats were supposedly destroyed.: 0.6
Ukraine is prioritizing domestic weapons production, including rockets, drones, and long-range weapons, despite the continued value of foreign weapons.: 0.7
Kremlin spokesman Peskov denies reports of US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia this week.: 0.7
Damage to the roof of a building at the "Konservsushzavod" plant in Starodub, Bryansk region, Russia, after a UAV attack was confirmed.: 0.7
Alawite leaders in Syria requested protection from Israel.: 0.3
Mothers of deceased soldiers in Udmurtia are being sent to a monastery for rehabilitation.: 0.5
A drone will be sent to soldiers.: 0.4
Quad bikes are requested for soldiers.: 0.6
An image of "I love combat training" has been posted.: 0.6
Online weapons permits are now available in the Diia app.: 0.6
Ukraine refuses a ceasefire on land, as this would allow Russia to recover, and instead offers one on air and naval forces.: 0.7
Russian forces advanced 2 km on the eastern outskirts of Krasnoarmeysk, reaching Tarasovka.: 0.4
The application facilitates improved control and tracking of civilian firearms, potentially impacting military strategies for maintaining public order.: 0.32
The application poses geolocation risks if not adequately secured, which could indirectly affect military security.: 0.24
The application could be used to assess and potentially mobilize armed civilians in support of military operations.: 0.16
The application's permit ordering system enhances bureaucratic efficiency but has minimal direct impact on military operations.: 0.08
Russian forces (Rubicon battle groups) are destroying Ukrainian logistics on the Sudzha-Yunakivka road.: 0.8
Soldiers of the 9th regiment have retrieved the body of their commander, Sergey Chebnev, who died in August: 0.7
800 Russian soldiers used a gas pipeline to infiltrate Ukrainian positions near Sudzha.: 0.89
Russian forces (Sever Group) liberated the settlements of Kositsa, Malaya Loknya, and Cherkasskoye Porechnoye: 0.75
Russia claims to have destroyed more than 340 troops, two tanks, seven infantry fighting vehicles, five armoured personnel carriers, ten armoured fighting vehicles, 13 motor vehicles, three self-propelled artillery systems, eight field artillery guns, one AN/TPQ-50 counter-battery warfare station, an engineering vehicle, as well as six UAV command posts, and an ammunition depot. Two AFU servicemen surrendered.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are mobilizing for a large-scale offensive.: 0.05
The attack aims to increase pressure on Russian forces by damaging their support facilities.: 0.15
The attack is a retaliatory strike for recent Russian aggression.: 0.25
A Russian meat processing plant near the Ukrainian border was damaged after a drone strike.: 0.7
Over 400 residents have been evacuated from border villages in the Kursk region.: 0.7
The strike could be a diversionary tactic to distract from other military operations.: 0.05
Reports on damaged houses and cars in Vidnoye.: 0.8
Ukrainian forces continue offensive operations in the southern direction of Zaporizhzhia: 0.45
Ukraine is planning a major offensive in the Kherson direction.: 0.05
A possible attempt by Ukrainian forces to land troops in the Kherson region was thwarted by a drone strike.: 0.55
A fire at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.65
Russia and Ukraine are secretly negotiating for a ceasefire.: 0.15
Russia has destroyed more than 1200 Ukrainian drones

Situation Report

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 11, 2025, 09:12 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (08:43 UTC - 09:12 UTC)

Updated Situation Summary

Updated Recommendations