Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 11, 2025, 08:12 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (07:44 UTC - 08:12 UTC)

1. KURSK REGION: RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CONTINUES, CLAIMS OF FURTHER ADVANCES (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (07:48 UTC) Video: Claims a commander of the 22nd Regiment describes how, with support from artillery, aviation, and UAVs, they are liberating settlements. Claims significant advances.
   • ТАСС (07:51, 07:55 UTC): Reports Russian soldiers, overcoming 15 km through a PIPELINE, emerged UNEXPECTEDLY in the REAR of UKRAINIAN DEFENSES near SUDZHA. Claims this ENSURED A BREAKTHROUGH from MULTIPLE DIRECTIONS, DISRUPTED UKRAINIAN COMMAND AND CONTROL, and led to the LIBERATION OF OVER EIGHT SETTLEMENTS.
   • Colonelcassad (07:49) Video: Claims Gerasimov inspected the Kursk grouping and the progress of liberating the Kursk region.
     • Assessment: These reports, primarily from RUSSIAN SOURCES, REINFORCE and EXPAND on PREVIOUS CLAIMS of a SUCCESSFUL RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE in the KURSK REGION. The CLAIM of SOLDIERS ADVANCING 15 KM THROUGH A PIPELINE is EXTRAORDINARY and, IF TRUE, would represent a MAJOR TACTICAL INNOVATION with SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS for FUTURE OPERATIONS. The CLAIM of DISRUPTING UKRAINIAN COMMAND AND CONTROL and LIBERATING EIGHT SETTLEMENTS is SIGNIFICANT and SUGGESTS A MAJOR UKRAINIAN COLLAPSE in the AREA. The CLAIMED INVOLVEMENT of ARTILLERY, AVIATION, AND UAVS is CONSISTENT with a COORDINATED OFFENSIVE.

2. MOSCOW REGION: DRONE ATTACK AFTERMATH (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Два майора (07:46, 07:55 UTC): Reports THREE CHILDREN INJURED in the Moscow region drone attacks.
   • ASTRA (07:48) Video: Shows the moment a drone was shot down near Alabino, Moscow Oblast.
   • ТАСС (07:49 UTC): Reports that THREE CHILDREN were INJURED in the MOSCOW REGION drone attacks, with their condition being SATISFACTORY.
   • ASTRA (07:55 UTC): Reports TWO DEATHS in the Moscow region, with 14 INJURED.
   • Новости Москвы (07:54): Reports families will receive 1 million rubles.
   • ТАСС (07:57 UTC): Reports TWO PEOPLE DIED and 18 WERE INJURED, including THREE CHILDREN, due to the drone attack.
     • Assessment: CONFIRMS CASUALTIES from the DRONE ATTACK in the MOSCOW REGION, including CHILDREN. Reports CONFLICT on the EXACT NUMBER OF INJURED, but TWO DEATHS are CONSISTENTLY REPORTED.

3. DIPLOMATIC ACTIVITY: US-UKRAINE MEETING IN JEDDAH (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (08:01 UTC): Reports the meeting is scheduled for 12:00 LOCAL TIME (11:00 Kyiv time) today. Ukrainian delegation: Yermak, Sybiha, Umerov. US delegation: Rubio, Waltz.
   • РБК-Україна (08:01 UTC): Reports the same information as above, citing the US STATE DEPARTMENT.
   • Оперативний ЗСУ (08:05 UTC): Reports the same information.

• STERNENKO (08:11) states the meeting will be at 12:00 local time in Jeddah.
  • Assessment: CONFIRMS a HIGH-LEVEL MEETING between US and UKRAINIAN DELEGATIONS in JEDDAH, SAUDI ARABIA. The PARTICIPATION of KEY OFFICIALS from BOTH SIDES suggests SIGNIFICANT DISCUSSIONS are ANTICIPATED.

4. DONETSK REGION, KONSTANTINOVKA: RUSSIAN M777 DESTROYED (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED):

• Народная милиция ДНР (07:59): Reports that a Russian Lancet destroyed a Ukrainian M777.
  • Assessment: Potentially confirms heavy Ukrainian losses.

5. OTHER DEVELOPMENTS:

   • Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (08:08 UTC): Claims Ukraine has a critical mass of attack UAVs.

• Alex Parker Returns (08:06): Reports news about the Russian pipeline infiltration.
• Офіс Генерального прокурора (08:00 UTC): Reports a girl in Mykolaiv was detained for planning a terrorist attack. * Assessment: Various reports requiring further verification.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • CONTINUING RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE IN THE KURSK REGION. CLAIMS of a MAJOR BREAKTHROUGH using a PIPELINE INFILTRATION TACTIC are EXTRAORDINARY and REQUIRE URGENT VERIFICATION, but, if true, would have MAJOR IMPLICATIONS. RUSSIAN SOURCES continue to CLAIM SIGNIFICANT ADVANCES and DISRUPTION OF UKRAINIAN COMMAND AND CONTROL.
  • CONTINUED AFTERMATH OF THE DRONE ATTACK ON RUSSIA. CASUALTIES CONFIRMED, including CHILDREN INJURED. CONFLICTING REPORTS on the EXACT NUMBER OF INJURED, but TWO DEATHS CONSISTENTLY REPORTED.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • All previously identified high-priority issues remain relevant.

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

  • HIGH-LEVEL US-UKRAINE MEETING scheduled for TODAY in JEDDAH, SAUDI ARABIA. This SUGGESTS CONTINUED DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS and POTENTIAL DISCUSSIONS on MILITARY AID and SECURITY COOPERATION.

  • All previously identified medium-priority issues remain relevant.

Updated Recommendations

1. ADDRESS THE KURSK REGION SITUATION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Maintain all previous recommendations, with INCREASED URGENCY.
   • URGENTLY INVESTIGATE and VERIFY the CLAIM of RUSSIAN SOLDIERS INFILTRATING via a PIPELINE. This has MAJOR IMPLICATIONS for INFRASTRUCTURE SECURITY and POTENTIAL FUTURE RUSSIAN TACTICS.
     • IMMEDIATELY ASSESS the SECURITY of ALL CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, particularly PIPELINES, for POTENTIAL VULNERABILITIES.
     • DEVELOP COUNTERMEASURES to PREVENT similar INFILTRATION ATTEMPTS.
   • DEPLOY INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to VERIFY the CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES and LIBERATION OF EIGHT SETTLEMENTS.
   • ASSESS THE IMPACT on UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE CAPABILITIES in the AFFECTED AREAS.
   • REINFORCE UKRAINIAN DEFENSES if necessary.
   • DEVELOP CONTINGENCY PLANS for POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVES.

2. ADDRESS THE AFTERMATH OF THE DRONE ATTACK ON RUSSIA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Maintain all previous recommendations.
   • CONTINUE TO GATHER INFORMATION on CASUALTIES and DAMAGE, particularly in the MOSCOW REGION.

3. MONITOR AND ANALYZE THE US-UKRAINE MEETING (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • MONITOR the MEETING in JEDDAH for any SIGNIFICANT OUTCOMES or STATEMENTS that could IMPACT the CONFLICT.
   • ASSESS the IMPLICATIONS of the MEETING for US MILITARY AID and SECURITY COOPERATION with UKRAINE.

4. MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND DYNAMIC. The RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE in the KURSK REGION, particularly the CLAIM OF PIPELINE INFILTRATION, is the MOST SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, requiring IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION. The AFTERMATH of the DRONE ATTACK on RUSSIA and the UPCOMING US-UKRAINE MEETING also REQUIRE CLOSE ATTENTION.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

• The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.68
• Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.62
• The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
• The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
• The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
• The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.9999999999999999
• Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.92
• Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
• Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.65
• Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
• 35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
• Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
• Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.45
• Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.25
• Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
• Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
• Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.65
• There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
• Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
• Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
• Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
• Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
• The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
• Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
• There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
• There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
• There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
• Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
• There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
• Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
• Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
• Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.57
• There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.68
• Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
• A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
• A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
• A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
• Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
• Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
• Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
• There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
• Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
• There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
• Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
• There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
• A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
• Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
• Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
• Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
• Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
• Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
• Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
• The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
• The restrictions are related to weather conditions affecting air traffic control.: 0.02
• The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
• The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
• Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
• A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
• The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
• US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
• The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
• The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
• Intense fighting continues in the area of ​​Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
• The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
• The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
• The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
• Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
• Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
• The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
• Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
• Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
• Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
• On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
• Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
• Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
• Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
• Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
• The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
• One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
• Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
• Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
• Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
• 40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
• Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
• Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
• Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
• Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
• Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
• Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
• Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
• There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
• A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
• A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
• An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
• Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
• All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
• The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
• Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
• The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
• 180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
• 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
• Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
• Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
• Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.44
• Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
• Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
• Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
• Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
• Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
• Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
• UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
• Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
• The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
• Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
• Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
• Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
• The new Canadian Prime Minister intends to take a firm stance against the US on trade issues.: 0.16
• Trade relations between Canada and the US will remain strained in the near future.: 0.08
• An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
• Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
• Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
• A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
• The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.74
• Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78
• There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.58
• The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
• The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
• A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
• Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
• The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
• Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
• There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
• Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
• Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.78
• Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
• Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
• Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
• Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
• Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
• Russian Ka-52 pilots are employing specific attack profiles and targeting strategies.: 0.47
• Russian helicopters are operating in contested airspace and employing electronic warfare countermeasures.: 0.47
• The video is part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonstrate military strength and operational effectiveness.: 0.47
• Ukraine is attempting to persuade the US to resume intelligence and military support.: 0.78
• Ukraine is offering a partial ceasefire on long-range drone/missile strikes and Black Sea operations.: 0.72
• Ukraine is emphasizing President Zelensky's desire for a swift end to the war.: 0.65
• The proposed ceasefire agreement includes a halt to air attacks, naval operations, and attacks on energy/civilian infrastructure.: 0.67
• A Ukrainian attempt to unblock the SUDZHA-GORNAL road by attacking near the "Kolosok" camp with up to a company-sized assault group was completely destroyed, with the area remaining under Russian control.: 0.7
• Multiple bridges near Sudzha have been destroyed:0.7
• Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 2nd Knyazhy (destroyed by a FAB-3000 UMPK guided bomb).: 0.7
• Bridge over the Loknya River in the hamlet of 1st Knyazhy.: 0.7
• Bridge in Sudzha, near the destroyed Ukrainian convoy (corroborating previous reports).: 0.7
• Bridge east of Sudzha, behind the convoy, destroyed by an FPV drone strike on explosives.: 0.7
• Intense fighting in Tarasovka: 0.42
• Ukrainian forces (Signum unit of the 53rd Mechanized Brigade) shot down 9 Russian reconnaissance drones overnight: 3 Orlans, 3 Zalas, and 3 Supercams.: 0.5
• Two men claiming to have been evacuated from the Sudzha direction after being under "fascist occupation" for six months.: 0.5
• The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk.: 0.6
• The 144th Center of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured 9 Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk, using a drone.: 0.7
• An "Inokhodets" drone was used to kill up to 50 enemy personnel.: 0.25
• A fiber-optic controlled FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian soldier and ambushed an armored vehicle in the Kursk region.: 0.6
• A Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) raid on a gas platform near the Golitsynskoye gas field in the Black Sea on the night of March 7-8.: 0.7
• Two boats were supposedly destroyed.: 0.6
• Ukraine is prioritizing domestic weapons production, including rockets, drones, and long-range weapons, despite the continued value of foreign weapons.: 0.7
• Kremlin spokesman Peskov denies reports of US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia this week.: 0.7
• Damage to the roof of a building at the "Konservsushzavod" plant in Starodub, Bryansk region, Russia, after a UAV attack was confirmed.: 0.7
• Alawite leaders in Syria requested protection from Israel.: 0.3
• Mothers of deceased soldiers in Udmurtia are being sent to a monastery for rehabilitation.: 0.5
• A drone will be sent to soldiers.: 0.4
• Quad bikes are requested for soldiers.: 0.6
• An image of "I love combat training" has been posted.: 0.6
• Online weapons permits are now available in the Diia app.: 0.6
• Ukraine refuses a ceasefire on land, as this would allow Russia to recover, and instead offers one on air and naval forces.: 0.7
• Russian forces advanced 2 km on the eastern outskirts of Krasnoarmeysk, reaching Tarasovka.: 0.4
• The application facilitates improved control and tracking of civilian firearms, potentially impacting military strategies for maintaining public order.: 0.32
• The application poses geolocation risks if not adequately secured, which could indirectly affect military security.: 0.24
• The application could be used to assess and potentially mobilize armed civilians in support of military operations.: 0.16
• The application's permit ordering system enhances bureaucratic efficiency but has minimal direct impact on military operations.: 0.08
• Russian forces (Rubicon battle groups) are destroying Ukrainian logistics on the Sudzha-Yunakivka road.: 0.8
• Soldiers of the 9th regiment have retrieved the body of their commander, Sergey Chebnev, who died in August: 0.7
• 800 Russian soldiers used a gas pipeline to infiltrate Ukrainian positions near Sudzha.: 0.89
• Russian forces (Sever Group) liberated the settlements of Kositsa, Malaya Loknya, and Cherkasskoye Porechnoye: 0.75
• Russia claims to have destroyed more than 340 troops, two tanks, seven infantry fighting vehicles, five armoured personnel carriers, ten armoured fighting vehicles, 13 motor vehicles, three self-propelled artillery systems, eight field artillery guns, one AN/TPQ-50 counter-battery warfare station, an engineering vehicle, as well as six UAV command posts, and an ammunition depot. Two AFU servicemen surrendered.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are mobilizing for a large-scale offensive.: 0.05
• The attack aims to increase pressure on Russian forces by damaging their support facilities.: 0.15
• The attack is a retaliatory strike for recent Russian aggression.: 0.25
• A Russian meat processing plant near the Ukrainian border was damaged after a drone strike.: 0.7
• Over 400 residents have been evacuated from border villages in the Kursk region.: 0.7
• The strike could be a diversionary tactic to distract from other military operations.: 0.05
• Reports on damaged houses and cars in Vidnoye.: 0.8
• Ukrainian forces continue offensive operations in the southern direction of Zaporizhzhia: 0.45
• Ukraine is planning a major offensive in the Kherson direction.: 0.05
• A possible attempt by Ukrainian forces to land troops in the Kherson region was thwarted by a drone strike.: 0.55
• A fire at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.65
• Russia and Ukraine are secretly negotiating for a ceasefire.: 0.15
• Russia has destroyed more than 1200 Ukrainian drones within the past week.: 0.05
• Since the beginning of hostilities in Kursk direction, the AFU losses amounted to more than 66,270 troops, 389 tanks, 307 infantry fighting vehicles, 269 armoured personnel carriers, 2,173 armoured fighting vehicles, 2,383 motor vehicles, 539 artillery guns, 52 MLRS launchers, including 13 of HIMARS and seven of MLRS made by the USA, 25 anti-aircraft missile launchers, one self-propelled anti-aircraft system, ten transport-loading vehicles, 120 EW stations, 16 counter-battery warfare radars, ten air defence radars, 55 units of engineering and other materiel, including 23 counterobstacle vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle, five bridge launchers, one engineering reconnaissance vehicle as well as 14 armoured recovery vehicles, and one command post vehicle. : 0.4
• UKRAINIAN SPECIAL FORCES OPERATIONS IN KHARKIV REGION: 0.67
• Ukrainian forces counterattacked in Shevchenko: 0.55
• Russia is attempting to destroy Ukrainian UAV control centers in the Zaporizhzhia region.: 0.55
• Russian forces claim Malaya Loknya is completely under their control.: 0.98
• Russian forces are targeting and destroying Ukrainian troops fleeing Sudzha.: 0.65
• The US hasn't stopped providing intelligence to Ukraine.: 0.64
• The US stopped providing intelligence to Ukraine.: 0.09
• There is a ballistic missile threat from the East.: 0.85
• The new "UAS SETH" Ukrainian drone has been released.: 0.6
• "UAS SETH" is a Ukrainian drone.: 0.8
• The "UAS SETH" is easy to use.: 0.7
• The "UAS SETH" is fully automated.: 0.7
• The "UAS SETH" is equipped with machine vision.: 0.7
• The "UAS SETH" is being used in Toretsk: 0.7
• Russia advanced on the territory of the Dnipropetrovsk REGION.: 0.6
• A man died in a drone attack in Shebekino.: 0.8
• Fighting is ongoing in Dmytrivka.: 0.8
• The body of Hero of Russia Sergey Chebnev, call sign Otmel, who died in battle in the Kursk region in August, was found near the building of a women's colony in the liberated Malaya Lokna and pulled out from under the rubble: 0.9
• Russian forces have targeted enemy communications in Dneproenergiya.: 0.8
• The "UAS SETH" drone is operational.: 0.7
• Continued U.S. diplomatic engagement with Ukraine, involving key Ukrainian officials, as well as highlighting the importance of Saudi Arabia in these discussions.: 0.2
• Russian forces, overcoming 15 km through a PIPELINE, emerged UNEXPECTEDLY in the REAR of UKRAINIAN DEFENSES near SUDZHA: 0.9999
• This ENSURED A BREAKTHROUGH from MULTIPLE DIRECTIONS: 0.99
• This DISRUPTED UKRAINIAN COMMAND AND CONTROL: 0.89
• The LIBERATION OF OVER EIGHT SETTLEMENTS.: 0.7
• THREE CHILDREN INJURED in the Moscow region drone attacks.: 0.95
• The condition of the three injured children is SATISFACTORY: 0.9
• TWO DEATHS in the Moscow region, with 14 INJURED (ASTRA): 0.7
• Families will receive 1 million rubles in compensation.: 0.8
• TWO PEOPLE DIED and 18 WERE INJURED, including THREE CHILDREN, due to the drone attack: 0.7
• A Russian Lancet destroyed a Ukrainian M777 howitzer.: 0.7

Here is the new analysis of the updated military situation, integrating all information from the previous analysis and new messages:

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 11, 2025, 08:12 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (07:44 UTC - 08:12 UTC)

1. KURSK REGION: RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CONTINUES, CLAIMS OF FURTHER ADVANCES (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (07:48 UTC) Video: Claims a commander of the 22nd Regiment describes how, with support from artillery, aviation, and UAVs, they are liberating settlements. Claims significant advances.
   • ТАСС (07:51, 07:55 UTC): Reports Russian soldiers, overcoming 15 km through a PIPELINE, emerged UNEXPECTEDLY in the REAR of UKRAINIAN DEFENSES near SUDZHA. Claims this *ENSURED A BREAK