Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 11, 2025, 01:12 UTC
Key Changes and Developments (00:09 UTC - 01:12 UTC)
HUNGARY THREATENS TO BLOCK EU SANCTIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (00:59 UTC): Reports that Hungary is preparing to block the extension of personal sanctions against Russia this week, citing Euractiv. Claims Orban seeks to remove eight people from the sanctions list. Notes that Trump is signaling a potential lifting of US sanctions.
Assessment: This REPRESENTS A SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL SHIFT in the EU'S UNITED FRONT against RUSSIA. HUNGARY'S ACTIONS, if SUCCESSFUL, could WEAKEN THE IMPACT OF SANCTIONS and SIGNAL DISUNITY within the EU. The REFERENCE TO TRUMP'S SIGNALS suggests HUNGARY may be ANTICIPATING A CHANGE IN US POLICY. This development is HIGHLY RELEVANT to the OVERALL CONFLICT, as SANCTIONS ARE A KEY TOOL for PRESSURING RUSSIA.
Colonelcassad (01:04 UTC): Claims Russian drone operators continue to demonstrate "jewelry work" in identifying and destroying enemy equipment. Includes video.
Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS CLAIMS of RUSSIAN DRONE EFFECTIVENESS. This SUPPORTS PREVIOUS ASSESSMENTS of RUSSIAN ADVANCES and UKRAINIAN LOSSES.
ТАСС (00:35 UTC) & РБК-Україна (01:06 UTC): Reports that Witkoff (identified as a Trump envoy) plans to meet with Putin in Moscow on March 13, citing Axios correspondent Barak Ravid. Notes the meeting is tentative.
Assessment: This SUGGESTS POTENTIAL DIPLOMATIC ACTIVITY between the US (via a Trump-linked envoy) and RUSSIA. The MEETING, if it OCCURS, could be SIGNIFICANT for NEGOTIATIONS related to the CONFLICT. The UNCERTAINTY surrounding the MEETINGREQUIRES CLOSE MONITORING.
UKRAINIAN DRONE MOVEMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (01:05 UTC): Reports drones continue moving towards Zhytomyr region.
Assessment: THE ONGOING, WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACKS are CONTINUING, with NEW THREATS EMERGING in ZHYTOMYR OBLAST.
OTHER REPORTS:
ТАСС (00:20 UTC, 00:24 UTC): Reports on a UFC fighter being greeted in Dagestan, and Tucker Carlson stating Ukraine was never sovereign and is nearing losing control.
* Assessment:NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to IMMEDIATE MILITARY OPERATIONS. The Carlson report REFLECTS A PRO-RUSSIAN NARRATIVE.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
CONTINUED WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK ACROSS UKRAINE, with CONFIRMED DAMAGE to a FUEL STORAGE FACILITY IN ODESSA. DRONE ACTIVITY reported near ODESSA, KYIV, CHERKASY, ZHYTOMYR, and OTHER OBLASTS.
POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK INSIDE RUSSIAN TERRITORY, with an AIR RAID ALERT issued for LIPETSK OBLAST.
RUSSIAN FORCES CONTINUE TO ADVANCE IN THE KURSK REGION. RUSSIAN SOURCES claim SIGNIFICANT SUCCESSES.
HUNGARY THREATENS TO BLOCK EU SANCTIONS.
HIGH PRIORITY:
CONFIRMED US-UKRAINE-SAUDI ARABIA TALKS in JEDDAH on MARCH 11.
REPORTED EXPLOSIONS AND FIRE in KURCHATOV, KURSK OBLAST, RUSSIA.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
CLAIMS OF A CYBERATTACK on X originating from UKRAINIAN IP ADDRESSES.
POTENTIAL WITKOFF-PUTIN MEETING on MARCH 13.
Updated Recommendations
COUNTER THE CONTINUED DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Maintain all previous recommendations. PRIORITIZE ZHYTOMYR OBLAST NOW
MAINTAIN MAXIMUM ALERT STATUS for ALL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS across ALL THREATENED REGIONS, particularly in:
ODESSA OBLAST
KIROVOHRAD OBLAST
CHERNIHIV OBLAST
KYIV OBLAST
CHERKASY OBLAST
ZHYTOMYR OBLAST
PRIORITIZE the PROTECTION OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, ESPECIALLY FUEL STORAGE FACILITIES.
DEPLOY MOBILE AIR DEFENSE UNITS to INTERCEPT DRONES along REPORTED FLIGHT PATHS.
UTILIZE ELECTRONIC WARFARE SYSTEMS to JAM DRONE SIGNALS.
COORDINATE with ALLIED FORCES to SHARE INTELLIGENCE on DRONE ACTIVITY and REQUEST ASSISTANCE, if needed.
INVESTIGATE POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK IN LIPETSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Maintain all previous recommendations.
GATHER INTELLIGENCE on the NATURE AND EXTENT OF ANY DAMAGE.
ASSESS the IMPLICATIONS of a POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN LONG-RANGE STRIKE CAPABILITY.
DEVELOP COUNTERMEASURES to DEFEND AGAINST FUTURE ATTACKS.
ADDRESS THE RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN THE KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Maintain all previous recommendations.
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS, including URGENT DEPLOYMENT OF INTELLIGENCE ASSETS, REINFORCEMENT OF UKRAINIAN DEFENSES, DEVELOPMENT OF CONTINGENCY PLANS, and TARGETING OF ADVANCING RUSSIAN FORCES.
INVESTIGATE and VERIFY the CLAIM of 800 RUSSIAN SOLDIERS INFILTRATING via a GAS PIPELINE. This has MAJOR IMPLICATIONS for INFRASTRUCTURE SECURITY and POTENTIAL FUTURE RUSSIAN TACTICS.
PREPARE FOR US-UKRAINE-SAUDI ARABIA TALKS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Maintain all previous recommendations.
DEVELOP A CLEAR NEGOTIATING STRATEGY that PRIORITIZES UKRAINIAN SOVEREIGNTY AND TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY.
IDENTIFY KEY OBJECTIVES and RED LINES for the NEGOTIATIONS.
GATHER INTELLIGENCE on the US and SAUDI ARABIAN POSITIONS and POTENTIAL LEVERAGE POINTS.
COORDINATE with ALLIED NATIONS to GARNER SUPPORT for UKRAINE'S POSITION.
INVESTIGATE EXPLOSIONS AND FIRE IN KURCHATOV (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Maintain all previous recommendations.
DETERMINE THE CAUSE of the EXPLOSIONS AND FIRE.
ASSESS ANY DAMAGE, particularly to CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE.
INVESTIGATE any POTENTIAL LINKS to UKRAINIAN ACTIONS.
INVESTIGATE CLAIMS OF CYBERATTACK (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Maintain all previous recommendations.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR reports and claims related to the CYBERATTACK on X.
ANALYZE THE RESPONSE from both UKRAINIAN and RUSSIAN SOURCES.
SEEK INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION of the ORIGIN OF THE ATTACK.
GATHER INTELLIGENCE on the PURPOSE and POTENTIAL OUTCOMES of the MEETING.
* ASSESS ANY IMPACT on NEGOTIATIONS related to the CONFLICT.
ADDRESS POTENTIAL HUNGARIAN BLOCKAGE OF EU SANCTIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
ENGAGE IN DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS to DISSUADE HUNGARY from BLOCKING THE SANCTIONS.
COORDINATE with OTHER EU MEMBERS to MAINTAIN A UNITED FRONT.
ASSESS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT of a SANCTIONS BLOCKAGE on RUSSIA'S MILITARY CAPABILITIES.
The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL. The CONTINUED DRONE ATTACK, the POTENTIAL FOR INTERNAL EU DISUNITY, and the CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCE represent MAJOR THREATS. PROMPT AND COORDINATED ACTION is ESSENTIAL.
