Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 10, 2025, 09:30 UTC
Key Changes and Developments (09:01 UTC - 09:30 UTC)
KURSK REGION - CONTINUED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE, CLAIMS OF CAPTURED TERRITORY (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Colonelcassad (09:06 UTC) reports the continued "collapse" of the "Kursk salient," with claims that Russian forces have COMPLETELY LIBERATED: Kubatkin, Zazulevka, Ivashkovsky, and Agronom. Claims the northern part of the "salient" has "collapsed" and that further settlements will be liberated soon. Reports VERY HEAVY UKRAINIAN LOSSES in the fighting from March 7-10.
Assessment: This FURTHER REINFORCES previous claims of a MAJOR RUSSIAN ADVANCE in the KURSK REGION. The claimed COMPLETE LIBERATION of FOUR SETTLEMENTS and the COLLAPSE OF THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SALIENT are EXTREMELY SIGNIFICANT and INDICATE A POTENTIAL ROUT OF UKRAINIAN FORCES. The claim of VERY HEAVY UKRAINIAN LOSSESREQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION, but if accurate, it would have SERIOUS IMPLICATIONS for UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE CAPABILITIES.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (09:18 UTC) claims the Russian army liberated Pravda, Zazulevka, Ivashkovsky, and Agronom, and almost took Mirny. Reports the 30th Regiment liberated Pravda and Ivashkovsky. Claims marines and "Akhmat" liberated Zazulevka and are attacking Yuzhny, having occupied a "significant part" of it. Reports that Mirny is being "cleared" and that SOME UKRAINIAN UNITS EVACUATED FROM SUDZHA towards the border. Claims NO FIGHTING IN SUDZHA ITSELF, no reinforcements, and heavy Russian fire on Ukrainian supply routes. Reports previous liberation of Martynovka and Mikhailovka, and ongoing fighting near Melovoe.
Assessment: This DETAILED REPORT further SUPPORTS RUSSIAN CLAIMS of EXTENSIVE GAINS in the KURSK REGION. The CLAIMED LIBERATION OF MULTIPLE SETTLEMENTS, the ADVANCE ON YUZHNY, the CLEARING OF MIRNY, and the EVACUATION OF SOME UKRAINIAN UNITS FROM SUDZHA are all HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT. The LACK OF FIGHTING IN SUDZHA ITSELF and the ABSENCE OF UKRAINIAN REINFORCEMENTS are CRITICAL and POTENTIALLY INDICATE A COLLAPSE IN UKRAINIAN COMMAND AND CONTROL. The continued emphasis on HEAVY RUSSIAN FIRE ON UKRAINIAN LOGISTICAL ROUTESHIGHLIGHTS THE RUSSIAN STRATEGY OF ISOLATING AND DEFEATING UKRAINIAN FORCES. URGENT VERIFICATION is ESSENTIAL.
Dnevnik Desantnika (09:22 UTC) reports that the Kolizey plant has been "cleared" by the 380th Regiment east of Pravda. Claims the Ivashkovsky forest is being "cleared" by the 30th Regiment. Claims Ukrainian forces have been "knocked out" of Yuzhny and "preliminarily" Zozulevka. Reports the "cauldron" north of Kazachya Loknya has been "liquidated," with some "lost" Ukrainian soldiers remaining. Claims Ukrainian forces are attempting to EVACUATE from SUDZHA, both on foot and with surviving equipment.
Assessment: This report FURTHER CORROBORATESRUSSIAN CLAIMS of EXTENSIVE ADVANCES and UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWALS. The CLEARING OF THE KOLIZEY PLANT and IVASHKOVSKY FOREST indicate RUSSIAN CONTROL of KEY POSITIONS. The CLAIMED LIQUIDATION OF THE CAULDRON north of KAZACHYA LOKNYA is SIGNIFICANT and suggests MAJOR UKRAINIAN LOSSES. The CONFIRMATION of UKRAINIAN ATTEMPTS TO EVACUATE FROM SUDZHA, both ON FOOT and WITH EQUIPMENT, STRONGLY SUPPORTS the assessment of a COLLAPSING UKRAINIAN DEFENSE.
Dnevnik Desantnika (09:27) reports claims of a Ukrainian MiG-29 having been shot down.
Assessment: Further supports increased air activity.
TASS (09:07 UTC) claims a Ukrainian MiG-29 was shot down in an aerial battle, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
РБК-Україна (09:05 UTC) reports that according to the spokesperson of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, Russian forces are trying to create a zone of active combat operations near the settlement of Novenke, Sumy region, trying to cut off supply lines. Ukrainian forces are working to destroy Russian forces.
Assessment: Further confirms that the situation is critical.
Dnevnik Desantnika (08:33 UTC) Video of 10 soldiers, claimed to be the 80th Airborne Brigade, captured in Cherkasskoe Porechnoye, near Sudzha.
* Assessment: The video shows captured Ukrainian soldiers providing information on their unit, locations, and armaments. The soldiers report being treated well.
KURSK REGION - RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF CAPTURED UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Colonelcassad (09:18 UTC) reports that Russian forces captured Ukrainian soldiers during the "clearing" of positions between Malaya Loknya and Nikolaevka. Claims many of the prisoners had only a week of training before being deployed.
Assessment: This FURTHER SUPPORTS claims of RUSSIAN ADVANCES and UKRAINIAN LOSSES in the KURSK REGION. The CLAIM of POORLY TRAINED UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS being DEPLOYED TO THE FRONT LINESINDICATES POTENTIAL MANPOWER SHORTAGES and DESPERATION on the UKRAINIAN SIDE. URGENT VERIFICATION is REQUIRED.
POKROVSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN/UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Воин DV (09:03 UTC) reports the destruction of a Ukrainian 120mm mortar position by Russian FPV drones near Dyleevka.
* Assessment: This CONFIRMSCONTINUED FIGHTING on the POKROVSK DIRECTION. The DESTRUCTION of a UKRAINIAN MORTAR POSITION represents a TACTICAL LOSS for UKRAINIAN FORCES.
РБК-Україна (08:41 UTC) reports that operators of the 144th Center of the Special Operations Forces (SSO) of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (ZSU) successfully carried out an operation, capturing nine Russian soldiers in the Pokrovsk direction. They also liberated an industrial building from enemy occupation.
Assessment: This indicates that there is ongoing conflict in the area.
OTHER FRONTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Liveuamap (09:13 UTC) reports Russian airstrikes in various regions of Ukraine, including Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia.
Assessment: This INDICATES CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY and TARGETING of UKRAINIAN POSITIONS and INFRASTRUCTURE.
Liveuamap (09:13-09:14 UTC) reports clashes on various fronts: Kharkiv (near Vovchansk), Kupyansk (near Lozova, Petropavlivka, and Zahryzove), Lyman (near Balka Zhuravka, Novolubivka, Myrne, Ivanivka, and Yampolivka), Sieversk (near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, and towards Serebryanka), Kramatorsk (near Chasiv Yar, Hryhorivka, and towards Stupochky and Bila Hora), Toretsk (near Toretsk, Druzhba, and Dachne), Novopavlivka (near Skudne, Burlatske, and Kostyantynopil), Orikhiv (near Stepove, Nesteryanka, and Scherbaky), and Huliaipole (near Novopil and Pryvilne).
Assessment: These reports CONFIRM WIDESPREAD FIGHTING across MULTIPLE FRONTS. The INTENSITY and DISTRIBUTION of the CLASHESINDICATE A DYNAMIC AND FLUID SITUATION.
✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (09:10 UTC) reports that Ukrainian forces restored positions near Synkivka and Burlatske, and that Russian forces advanced near Ulakly.
* Assessment: This indicates ongoing conflict with territory changing hands.
Оперативний ЗСУ (09:05 UTC) reports that Ukrainian drone strikes increased by 22% in February compared to January. Highlights the effectiveness of FPV drones and multirotor bombers. Notes the urgent need for a unified standard for drone operations across all units. Acknowledges Russian development of rapid-response drone units and fiber-optic controlled drones.
Assessment: This HIGHLIGHTS the CENTRAL ROLE OF DRONES in the CONFLICT. The INCREASED UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES demonstrate GROWING CAPABILITIES, but the RUSSIAN ADVANCEMENTS in DRONE TECHNOLOGY pose a SIGNIFICANT THREAT. The NEED FOR A UNIFIED STANDARD for UKRAINIAN DRONE OPERATIONS is CRITICAL for IMPROVED COORDINATION AND EFFECTIVENESS.
Fighterbomber (09:05 UTC) reports that drone detectors "see" BECs (unmanned surface vehicles, or USVs).
Assessment: This is not relevant for a Ukrainian analysis.
MoD Russia (09:05) showed videos claiming that FPV drones of the Rubikon Centre are hitting armoured vehicles, manpower, and UAVs of the enemy in Kursk region, and destroying bridges.
Assessment: This SUPPORTS RUSSIAN CLAIMS of TARGETING UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS in the KURSK REGION. The DESTRUCTION OF BRIDGES would SEVERELY HAMPER UKRAINIAN SUPPLY LINES and REINFORCEMENT CAPABILITIES.
SYRIA (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
WarGonzo (09:02 UTC) reports on the Syrian crisis, highlighting the UN Security Council meeting and the complex interplay of international actors.
Assessment: While NOT DIRECTLY RELATED to the UKRAINIAN CONFLICT, this report HIGHLIGHTS the COMPLEX GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPE and the POTENTIAL for INTERNATIONAL INVOLVEMENT in MULTIPLE CONFLICT ZONES.
Alex Parker Returns (09:01 UTC) reports that a branch of DUM in Stavropol supported genocide in Syria.
* Assessment: This is irrelevant to Ukraine.
Рыбарь, Балканская сплетница (9:06) Reports on Balkan militants in HTS (former Al-Nusra).
OTHER REPORTS:
ТАСС (09:08 UTC) reports that according to Lavrov, work on overcoming problems in US-Russia relations has not begun.
* Assessment: This is important context.
Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) (09:13) Claims that Ukraine is suggesting a partial ceasefire to the US.
Assessment: This is potentially significant, but must be weighed with other information.
Север.Реалии (09:04) reports that unknowns set fire to a cell tower in the Leningrad Oblast.
Assessment: Irrelevant to the situation in Ukraine.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE IN THE KURSK REGIONCONTINUES, with MULTIPLE SOURCESCLAIMING SIGNIFICANT ADVANCES and the CAPTURE OF SEVERAL SETTLEMENTS. Reports suggest UKRAINIAN FORCES are RETREATING, EVACUATING, and SUFFERING HEAVY LOSSES. SUDZHA is REPORTEDLYNOT YET UNDER ATTACK, but UKRAINIAN FORCES are REPORTEDLYEVACUATING due to RUSSIAN FIRE CONTROL of SUPPLY ROUTES. URGENT VERIFICATION is CRITICAL, but the situation appears to be RAPIDLY DETERIORATING for UKRAINIAN FORCES.
HIGH PRIORITY:
CONTINUED INTENSE FIGHTING on MULTIPLE FRONTS, including POKROVSK, KUPYANSK, LYMAN, SIEVERSK, KRAMATORSK, TORETSK, NOVOPAVLIVKA, ORIKHIV, and HULIAIPOLE.
INCREASING DRONE WARFARE, with both UKRAINIAN and RUSSIAN FORCESUTILIZING DRONES for RECONNAISSANCE, TARGETING, and DIRECT ATTACKS. UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKESINCREASED in FEBRUARY, but RUSSIAN DRONE TECHNOLOGY is ADVANCING.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
The US and Russia are coordinating at the UN level to discuss Syria.
Updated Recommendations
ADDRESS THE COLLAPSING SITUATION IN THE KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Maintain all previous recommendations, including URGENT DEPLOYMENT OF INTELLIGENCE ASSETS, REINFORCEMENT OF UKRAINIAN DEFENSES, DEVELOPMENT OF CONTINGENCY PLANS, and TARGETING OF ADVANCING RUSSIAN FORCES.
Immediately assess the VIABILITY of HOLDING SUDZHA and DEVELOP CONTINGENCY PLANS for EVACUATION if NECESSARY.
Prioritize the SAFETY and EXTRACTION of UKRAINIAN TROOPS.
Intensify efforts to DISRUPT RUSSIAN ADVANCES and PREVENT further TERRITORIAL LOSSES.
URGENTLY VERIFY the REPORTED CAPTURE of UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS and ASSESS THEIR TRAINING LEVELS.
ADDRESS THE DESTRUCTION OF BRIDGES IN THE KURSK REGION. ASSESS THE IMPACT on UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS and DEVELOP ALTERNATIVE SUPPLY ROUTES.
Assess the potential impact of the CAPTURED SOLDIERS on UKRAINIAN MORALE and INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT. Develop strategies to MITIGATE NEGATIVE CONSEQUENCES.
VERIFY AND ADDRESS RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF CAPTURED UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Deploy all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM the IDENTITY and UNIT AFFILIATION of the CAPTURED SOLDIERS.
Assess the accuracy of the CLAIMS about their TRAINING LEVELS.
Determine the LOCATION AND CIRCUMSTANCES of their CAPTURE.
MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT STATUS FOR AIR DEFENSES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
Maintain all previous recommendations, including PRIORITIZING THE PROTECTION OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE AND MILITARY FACILITIES.
Be prepared for potential air strikes in areas where RUSSIAN AIRCRAFT ACTIVITY has been REPORTED.
Maintain all previous recommendations, including PRIORITIZING THE DEVELOPMENT AND DEPLOYMENT OF COUNTER-DRONE SYSTEMS.
Accelerate efforts to DEVELOP AND IMPLEMENT A UNIFIED STANDARD for UKRAINIAN DRONE OPERATIONS.
Increase the use of FPV drones and multirotor bombers to TARGET ENEMY FORCES AND EQUIPMENT.
MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS IN SYRIA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
Follow developments at the UN SECURITY COUNCIL and ASSESS POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS for the UKRAINIAN CONFLICT.
The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DYNAMIC. The RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE in the KURSK REGION is RAPIDLY ADVANCING, with MULTIPLE SOURCES reporting SIGNIFICANT UKRAINIAN LOSSES and TERRITORIAL LOSSES. The FIGHTING on MULTIPLE FRONTS is INTENSE, and DRONE WARFARE is PLAYING AN INCREASINGLY CRITICAL ROLE. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is required to ADDRESS THESE CRITICAL SITUATIONS.
Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:
The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.64
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.62
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.999
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.92
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.65
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.45
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.25
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.65
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.57
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.68
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are related to weather conditions affecting air traffic control.: 0.02
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.44
Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
The new Canadian Prime Minister intends to take a firm stance against the US on trade issues.: 0.16
Trade relations between Canada and the US will remain strained in the near future.: 0.08
An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.5
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78
There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.58
The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.78
Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
Russian Ka-52 pilots are employing specific attack profiles and targeting strategies.: 0.47
Russian helicopters are operating in contested airspace and employing electronic warfare countermeasures.: 0.47
The video is part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonstrate military strength and operational effectiveness.: 0.47
Ukraine is attempting to persuade the US to resume intelligence and military support.: 0.78
Ukraine is offering a partial ceasefire on long-range drone/missile strikes and Black Sea operations.: 0.72
Ukraine is emphasizing President Zelensky's desire for a swift end to the war.: 0.65
The proposed ceasefire agreement includes a halt to air attacks, naval operations, and attacks on energy/civilian infrastructure.: 0.67
The agreement includes prisoner exchanges and the return of Ukrainian children.: 0.64
Trump stated that the provision of intelligence data to Ukraine has "almost been restored.": 0.93
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian mortar position near Konstantinovka using FPV drones.: 0.8
The destruction of the mortar position indicates ongoing counter-battery warfare.: 0.8
Russian forces continue offensive operations near Pokrovsk, reportedly destroying NATO equipment.: 0.75
The reports on destroyed NATO equipment are likely exaggerated for propaganda purposes.: 0.3
The video evidence is inconclusive and needs further verification.: 0.25
The destruction of NATO-supplied equipment, if confirmed, would be a significant tactical victory for Russia.: 0.6
Russian soldiers captured a US-supplied Humvee.: 0.72
The captured Humvee is of little strategic importance.: 0.44
The video is likely intended for propaganda purposes.: 0.48
The US will assess Ukraine's willingness to make concessions to Russia during the upcoming Saudi Arabia meeting.: 0.88
US will increase pressure on Ukraine to negotiate.: 0.44
The Russian government claims 4800 Ukrainian casualties have been inflicted in the LPR.: 0.1
Two civilians have been killed, and seven injured due to Russian attacks in the Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporozhzhia, and Kharkiv regions.: 0.65
Russian forces may be using North Korean soldiers.: 0.1
Russian forces used fiber-optic controlled FPV drones.: 0.66
The video aims to create a narrative of Ukrainian military success.: 0.48
The video is part of a coordinated information warfare campaign to undermine support for Ukraine.: 0.32
The video seeks to weaken international coalition unity by creating doubts about Western allies' motivations.: 0.08
Russian forces are consolidating their control in the Kursk Oblast region and preparing for a potential Ukrainian counter-offensive.: 0.83
The map is intentionally designed to overstate Russian gains and demoralize Ukrainian forces and their allies.: 0.27
: 0.1
Ukrainian forces are actively contesting control in the 'grey zone' settlements, leading to a fluid and dynamic front line.: 0.04
