Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 10, 2025, 06:30 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (06:01 UTC - 06:30 UTC)

1. KURSK OBLAST: CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCES, UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWAL, CONFIRMATION OF AGROKOM (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Два майора (06:03 UTC): Claims the AGRONOM settlement in KURSK OBLAST is NOW UNDER RUSSIAN CONTROL. It was reportedly in the GREY ZONE the previous evening.

   • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT if CONFIRMED. Dva Mayora has been a RELIABLE SOURCE for RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the KURSK REGION. Taking control of AGRONOM solidifies the RUSSIAN ADVANCE and suggests a FURTHER PUSH into UKRAINIAN TERRITORY. It also suggests a CONTINUED UKRAINIAN WITHDRAWAL, with UKRAINIAN FORCES failing to hold even the GREY ZONE.

• Dnevnik Desantnika (06:24 UTC): Reports that USSURIYSK PARATROOPERS are FIGHTING FOR ZHURAVKA, which is NOT YET FULLY UNDER RUSSIAN CONTROL.

*   *Assessment:* This indicates *ONGOING FIGHTING* in *ZHURAVKA*. The *REPORT* of *USSURIYSK PARATROOPERS* being *INVOLVED* suggests *ELITE RUSSIAN UNITS* are being *DEPLOYED* to the *KURSK REGION*.

2. AIR THREAT, NORTHEASTERN UKRAINE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (06:29 UTC): Reports ENEMY TACTICAL AVIATION ACTIVITY in the NORTHEASTERN DIRECTION, with a THREAT OF AIRSTRIKES in FRONTLINE REGIONS.

   • Assessment: This indicates an IMMINENT THREAT of RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES in NORTHEASTERN UKRAINE. The ACTIVITY OF TACTICAL AVIATION suggests the USE OF FIGHTER-BOMBERS or ATTACK AIRCRAFT. This INCREASES the RISK of ATTACKS on MILITARY and CIVILIAN TARGETS in the REGION.

3. DOBROPILLIA ATTACK: CONFIRMED HIGH CASUALTIES AND DAMAGE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • Zelenskiy / Official, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, and КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) (reported in the previous analysis period but relevant here): Provide video of Zelenskyy reporting on the Dobropillia attack, emphasizing the "combined" nature of the strike (missiles and "Shahed" drones) and the targeting of civilian areas (residential buildings, shopping center, shops). Reports 11 DEAD, 50 INJURED (including 7 children), with one rescuer killed in a repeat strike. Also mentions attacks in Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions (FPV drone strikes on civilians in Kherson).

   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS the HIGH CASUALTY COUNT and EXTENSIVE DAMAGE from the DOBROPILLIA ATTACK. The USE OF BOTH MISSILES AND DRONES indicates a COORDINATED ATTACK aimed at MAXIMIZING DAMAGE. The TARGETING OF CIVILIAN AREAS is a WAR CRIME. The DEATH OF A RESCUER in a REPEAT STRIKE indicates a DELIBERATE TARGETING of EMERGENCY PERSONNEL.

4. RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN DONETSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):

   • TASS (06:19 UTC): Reports that RUSSIAN FORCES are ADVANCING in the area of BOGATYR in the SOUTH OF THE DONETSK REGION, according to Pushilin.

   • Assessment: This indicates CONTINUED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS in the DONETSK REGION. BOGATYR is likely a STRATEGIC TARGET for RUSSIAN FORCES. REQUIRES VERIFICATION from INDEPENDENT SOURCES.

   • TASS (06:22 UTC): Reports that UKRAINIAN FORCES have REDEPLOYED TWO BRIGADES from the KURSK DIRECTION to KRASNOARMEYSK and the SOUTH OF THE DONETSK REGION, according to Pushilin.

   • Assessment: This POTENTIALLY WEAKENS UKRAINIAN DEFENSES in the KURSK REGION. It SUGGESTS that UKRAINIAN FORCES are PRIORITIZING the DEFENSE of the DONETSK REGION. REQUIRES VERIFICATION from INDEPENDENT SOURCES.

5. UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE SUCCESSES, LARGE-SCALE DRONE ATTACK (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (06:23 UTC): Reports that 130 ENEMY DRONES were SHOT DOWN overnight, with 42 DRONE IMITATORS "locally lost" (without negative consequences). The attack involved 176 drones, including Shahed drones and "imitators," launched from multiple locations in Russia and occupied Crimea. Reports damage in Kharkiv, Poltava, and Kyiv regions.

   • РБК-Україна (06:25 UTC): Duplicates this analysis.

   • КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) (06:01 UTC): Reports that 16 ENEMY DRONES were detected on the APPROACHES TO KYIV, with 12 SHOT DOWN. No damage or casualties reported.

   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS a LARGE-SCALE RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK overnight. UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSES were HIGHLY EFFECTIVE, shooting down a SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF DRONES. The use of DRONE IMITATORS suggests an attempt to OVERWHELM UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSES. The REPORTED DAMAGE in KHARKIV, POLTAVA, AND KYIV REGIONS indicates that SOME DRONES REACHED THEIR TARGETS.

6. DRONE ATTACK ON AMBULANCE, VELIKA LEPETIKHA (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

• ASTRA (05:52) & Basurin o glavnom (06:24): Reports that the ambulance attack led to the destruction of expensive medical equipment.
  • Assessment: This FURTHER CONFIRMS the DRONE ATTACK on an AMBULANCE in VELIKA LEPETIKHA. The DESTRUCTION OF MEDICAL EQUIPMENT is a SIGNIFICANT LOSS and FURTHER HAMPERS the ABILITY TO PROVIDE MEDICAL CARE in the REGION. This is a POTENTIAL WAR CRIME.

7. MARKET ATTACK, KHERSON REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

• ASTRA (06:04): Confirms that the number of casualties are 3 dead, including a 15 year old, and 8 injured.
• TASS (06:16): Reports that the number of casualties increased to 4.
  • Assessment: This FURTHER CONFIRMS the MARKET ATTACK, and that it led to 4 casualties.

8. OTHER DEVELOPMENTS:

   • Два майора (06:00 UTC): Video message showing paratroopers from the Kursk region thanking readers for drones.

     • Assessment: Shows the IMPORTANCE OF DRONES in the CONFLICT.

• Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (06:26 UTC): Reports that TRUMP claims the US has "almost" ENDED THE PAUSE in INTELLIGENCE SHARING with UKRAINE.

  • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT if TRUE. The RESUMPTION OF INTELLIGENCE SHARING would GREATLY BENEFIT UKRAINIAN FORCES.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • CONTINUED AND INTENSIFIED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE IN THE KURSK/SUMY BORDER REGION. MULTIPLE REPORTS indicate SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCES, with claims of a LARGE-SCALE OPERATION involving ALL UNITS. RUSSIAN FORCES are REPORTEDLY STORMING MALA LOKNYA and HAVE CAPTURED AGROKOM. ONGOING FIGHTING in ZHURAVKA. UKRAINIAN FORCES are REPORTEDLY WITHDRAWING from SOME AREAS.
    • CONFLICTING REPORTS ON GAS PIPELINE INFILTRATION TACTIC. UKRAINIAN SOURCE confirms USE OF A PIPE for infiltration but DISPUTES RUSSIAN CLAIMS of SCALE AND SUCCESS. FURTHER VERIFICATION NEEDED.
  • DOBROPILLIA ATTACK CASUALTIES REMAIN HIGH. CONFIRMED INJURIES of 50 PEOPLE, including SEVEN CHILDREN, and ELEVEN DEATHS. EXTENSIVE DAMAGE to CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE.
  • DRONE ATTACK ON AMBULANCE, medical equipment destroyed.
  • INCREASED CASUALTIES in a MARKET ATTACK.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • AIR THREAT in NORTHEASTERN UKRAINE.
  • LARGE-SCALE RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK OVERNIGHT, with SIGNIFICANT UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE SUCCESSES.
  • INTENSE FIGHTING ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS, as confirmed by previous reports.
  • CONTINUED THREAT OF RUSSIAN AIR STRIKES AND MISSILE STRIKES.
  • POTENTIAL DECLINE IN MORALE among UKRAINIAN COMMANDERS, as suggested by a reported assessment.
  • RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the DONETSK REGION, near BOGATYR.
  • POTENTIAL REDEPLOYMENT of UKRAINIAN FORCES from KURSK to DONETSK.
  • POTENTIAL RESUMPTION of US INTELLIGENCE SHARING with UKRAINE.

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

  • CONTINUED INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE, with confirmed aid figures from the US and EU.

• HUNGARIAN OPPOSITION to UKRAINIAN EU MEMBERSHIP and MILITARY AID.

  • LONG-TERM SECURITY CONCERNS IN EUROPE, as highlighted by German intelligence.

• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. ADDRESS THE SITUATION IN THE KURSK/SUMY BORDER REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Maintain all previous recommendations, including URGENT DEPLOYMENT OF INTELLIGENCE ASSETS, REINFORCEMENT OF UKRAINIAN DEFENSES, DEVELOPMENT OF CONTINGENCY PLANS, and TARGETING OF ADVANCING RUSSIAN FORCES.
   • Specifically address the reported LARGE-SCALE NATURE of the RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE by ASSESSING THE DEPLOYMENT OF ADDITIONAL RUSSIAN UNITS.
   • URGENTLY VERIFY reports of RUSSIAN ADVANCES in MALA LOKNYA and AGROKOM.
   • URGENTLY ASSESS the IMPACT of the reported BRIDGE DESTRUCTION near SUDZHA on UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS and DEVELOP CONTINGENCY PLANS.
   • Specifically address the ongoing fighting in ZHURAVKA.
   • CLARIFY the situation regarding the REPORTED GAS PIPELINE INFILTRATION TACTIC. DEPLOY INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to DETERMINE THE EXTENT AND SUCCESS of this tactic.

2. ADDRESS THE SITUATION IN THE DONETSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • DEPLOY INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to VERIFY the reported RUSSIAN ADVANCE near BOGATYR.
   • ASSESS THE IMPACT on UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE CAPABILITIES in the area.
   • REINFORCE UKRAINIAN DEFENSES if necessary.

• VERIFY reports of UKRAINIAN FORCES REDEPLOYING from KURSK to DONETSK. ASSESS THE IMPACT on DEFENSES in BOTH REGIONS.

3. ADDRESS THE HUMANITARIAN CRISIS IN DOBROPILLIA, VELIKA LEPETIKHA, THE KHERSON REGION, AND OTHER AFFECTED AREAS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • PROVIDE IMMEDIATE MEDICAL ASSISTANCE to the INJURED.
   • ASSESS THE NEEDS of the AFFECTED POPULATION and PROVIDE SHELTER, FOOD, AND OTHER ESSENTIAL SUPPLIES.
   • INVESTIGATE THE ATTACKS and DOCUMENT EVIDENCE of POTENTIAL WAR CRIMES.

4. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT STATUS FOR AIR DEFENSES, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEASTERN UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • Maintain all previous recommendations, including PRIORITIZING THE PROTECTION OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE AND MILITARY FACILITIES.
   • Specifically address the threat of air strikes in NORTHEASTERN UKRAINE.

• CONTINUE TO MONITOR for DRONE ACTIVITY and POTENTIAL MISSILE STRIKES.

5. ASSESS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF REPORTED DECLINE IN UKRAINIAN COMMANDER MORALE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • GATHER INTELLIGENCE to VERIFY the reported assessment.
   • ASSESS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT on UKRAINIAN MILITARY STRATEGY and OPERATIONAL EFFECTIVENESS.

6. MONITOR THE POLITICAL SITUATION IN THE US (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • VERIFY reports of the POTENTIAL RESUMPTION of US INTELLIGENCE SHARING with UKRAINE. ASSESS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT on the CONFLICT.

7. CONTINUE DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • Specifically address HUNGARY'S OPPOSITION to UKRAINIAN EU MEMBERSHIP and MILITARY AID.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DYNAMIC. The INTENSIFIED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE in the KURSK/SUMY BORDER REGION, particularly the REPORTED ATTACK ON MALA LOKNYA, the CAPTURE OF AGROKOM, the ONGOING FIGHTING IN ZHURAVKA, and the DESTRUCTION OF THE BRIDGE NEAR SUDZHA, are MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS. The CONFLICTING REPORTS on the GAS PIPELINE INFILTRATION TACTIC REQUIRE URGENT CLARIFICATION. The CONTINUED HIGH CASUALTY COUNTS, AIR THREATS, and DRONE ATTACKS remain CRITICAL CONCERNS. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is required to ADDRESS THESE CRITICAL SITUATIONS. The situation in KURSK OBLAST is of the HIGHEST CONCERN.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

• The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.64
• Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.62
• The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
• The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
• The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
• The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.99
• Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.85
• Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
• Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.65
• Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
• 35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
• Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
• Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.36
• Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.25
• Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.76
• Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
• Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.65
• There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
• Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
• Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
• Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
• Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
• The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
• Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
• There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
• There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
• There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
• Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
• There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
• Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
• Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
• Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.57
• There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.68
• Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
• A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
• A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
• A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
• Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
• Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
• Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
• There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
• Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
• There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
• Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
• There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
• A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
• Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
• Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
• Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
• Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
• Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
• Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
• The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
• The restrictions are related to weather conditions affecting air traffic control.: 0.02
• The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
• The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
• Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
• A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
• The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
• US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
• The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
• The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
• Intense fighting continues in the area of ​​Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
• The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
• The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
• The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
• Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
• Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
• The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
• Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
• Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
• Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
• On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
• Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
• Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
• Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
• Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
• The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
• One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
• Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
• Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
• Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
• 40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
• Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
• Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
• Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
• Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
• Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
• Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
• Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
• There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
• A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
• A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
• An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
• Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
• All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
• The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
• Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
• The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
• 180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
• 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
• Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
• Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
• Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.44
• Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
• Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
• Widespread drone threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with confirmed movement in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts.: 0.7
• Reported Russian strikes in Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, with visual evidence of fighting and casualties, potentially indicating a widening Russian offensive.: 0.85
• Imminent threat of ballistic missile attacks from the east, signifying an escalation of the threat level.: 0.95
• Reported partial ceasefire offer.: 0.68
• UK-Ukraine consultations ahead of US-Ukraine meeting, suggesting close coordination.: 0.6
• Air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicating an imminent threat.: 0.88
• The US is likely to resume intelligence sharing with Ukraine in the near future.: 0.85
• Upcoming US-Ukraine negotiations in Saudi Arabia are expected to yield positive results.: 0.7
• Trump's statement is primarily intended to signal support for Ukraine without necessarily implying immediate action.: 0.1
• Canada will maintain tariffs on US goods until the US changes its trade policies.: 0.56
• The new Canadian Prime Minister intends to take a firm stance against the US on trade issues.: 0.16
• Trade relations between Canada and the US will remain strained in the near future.: 0.08
• An alleged Ukrainian POW, Alexander Ivanovich Bryk, was abandoned, wounded, and then captured.: 0.6
• Alexander Ivanovich Bryk received food, water, and medical care from Russian forces.: 0.7
• Alexander Ivanovich Bryk criticizes Zelensky and the Ukrainian government for poor conditions and lack of supplies.: 0.6
• A fire occurred at the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery.: 0.7
• The fire at the refinery was caused by a drone strike.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are striking targets inside Russia: 0.5
• Enemy tactical aviation is active in the southeast.: 0.78
• There is a threat of airstrikes in the frontline regions.: 0.58
• The enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the southeast.: 0.04
• The enemy is preparing for an offensive in the southeast.: 0.04
• A Ukrainian convoy of 9 cars was destroyed near Sudzha.: 0.8
• Mikhail Sheverin, a resident of Kurakhovo and alleged former Ukrainian serviceman, deserted because he considers himself Russian and doesn't want to fight: 0.42
• The threat of attack drones has ended.: 0.7
• Enemy tactical aviation is active in the north-eastern direction.: 0.68
• There is a threat of airstrikes in the north-eastern region.: 0.64
• Russian propaganda messages are urging Ukrainians to join a "people's resistance".: 0.65
• Guided bombs are being used on Donetsk and Kharkiv.: 0.78
• Trump may be planning on undermining Zelensky.: 0.45
• Ukraine has advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.: 0.55
• Russia is putting pressure on 6 directions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Taiwan detected 11 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships near the island.: 0.7
• Ka-52 helicopters maintain operational capability in winter conditions.: 0.55
• Russian forces have established sufficient logistics and maintenance support in the area of operation.: 0.54
• Russian Ka-52 pilots are employing specific attack profiles and targeting strategies.: 0.47
• Russian helicopters are operating in contested airspace and employing electronic warfare countermeasures.: 0.47
• The video is part of a Russian propaganda effort to demonstrate military strength and operational effectiveness.: 0.47
• Ukraine is attempting to persuade the US to resume intelligence and military support.: 0.78
• Ukraine is offering a partial ceasefire on long-range drone/missile strikes and Black Sea operations.: 0.72
• Ukraine is emphasizing President Zelensky's desire for a swift end to the war.: 0.65
• The proposed ceasefire agreement includes a halt to air attacks, naval operations, and attacks on energy/civilian infrastructure.: 0.67
• The agreement includes prisoner exchanges and the return of Ukrainian children.: 0.64
• Trump stated that the provision of intelligence data to Ukraine has "almost been restored.": 0.93
• Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian mortar position near Konstantinovka using FPV drones.: 0.8
• The destruction of the mortar position indicates ongoing counter-battery warfare.: 0.8
• Russian forces continue offensive operations near Pokrovsk, reportedly destroying NATO equipment.: 0.75
• The reports on destroyed NATO equipment are likely exaggerated for propaganda purposes.: 0.3
• The video evidence is inconclusive and needs further verification.: 0.25
• The destruction of NATO-supplied equipment, if confirmed, would be a significant tactical victory for Russia.: 0.6
• Russian soldiers captured a US-supplied Humvee.: 0.72
• The captured Humvee is of little strategic importance.: 0.44
• The video is likely intended for propaganda purposes.: 0.48
• The US will assess Ukraine's willingness to make concessions to Russia during the upcoming Saudi Arabia meeting.: 0.88
• US will increase pressure on Ukraine to negotiate.: 0.44
• The Russian government claims 4800 Ukrainian casualties have been inflicted in the LPR.: 0.1
• Two civilians have been killed, and seven injured due to Russian attacks in the Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporozhzhia, and Kharkiv regions.: 0.65
• Russian forces may be using North Korean soldiers.: 0.1
• Russian forces used fiber-optic controlled FPV drones.: 0.66
• The video aims to create a narrative of Ukrainian military success.: 0.48
• The video is part of a coordinated information warfare campaign to undermine support for Ukraine.: 0.32
• The video seeks to weaken international coalition unity by creating doubts about Western allies' motivations.: 0.08
• Russian forces are consolidating their control in the Kursk Oblast region and preparing for a potential Ukrainian counter-offensive.: 0.83
• The map is intentionally designed to overstate Russian gains and demoralize Ukrainian forces and their allies.: 0.27
• : 0.1
• Ukrainian forces are actively contesting control in the 'grey zone' settlements, leading to a fluid and dynamic front line.: 0.04
• Russian forces liberated Pravda, Kositsa, Kubatkin, Mikhailovka, Martynovka, Malaya Loknya, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Cherkasskaya Konopelka: 0.6
• Russian airborne units are clearing forests and strongholds in the direction of Dmitryukov Makhnovka.: 0.5
• Active assault operations near Melovoye, Ivashkovsky, Guyevo, and Makhnovka.: 0.5
• Europe is searching for a Starlink alternative.: 0.6
• Russia may be using a gas pipeline near Sudzha.: 0.4
• Russian forces captured Ivashkovsky.: 0.88
• Russian naval forces are operating in the Black Sea: 0.5
• 2 Shahed drones were destroyed overnight.: 0.7
• Russia shot down 9 drones over Russian regions.: 0.3
• 3 drones shot down over Samara: 0.3
• 2 drones were shot down in both Voronezh and Oryol.: 0.3
• 1 drone shot down in Belgorod and Kursk.: 0.3
• Characteristic sounds of explosions and fire were heard in Novokuibyshevsk: 0.5
• A drone was used to attack an oil refinery in Novokuibyshevsk: 0.84
• A Russian Kalibr missile carrier is present in the Black Sea with 4 missiles.: 0.7
• The Ukrainian Navy confirmed the presence of 1 "Kalibr" missile carrier in the Black Sea.: 0.6
• No enemy ships in the Azov sea.: 0.8
• 4 enemy ships in the Mediterranean sea, with 3 carrying 26 Kalibr missiles.: 0.9
• 3 ships entered the Black Sea from the Kerch Strait, heading to the Bosphorus Strait.: