Situation Report

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 9, 2025, 19:00 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (18:30 UTC - 19:00 UTC)

1. KHERSON OBLAST MARKET STRIKE: INCREASED CASUALTIES (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Mash на Донбассе (18:30 UTC): Reports the death toll from a strike on a market in Kherson Oblast has risen to three, with nine injured. Seven of the injured are in moderate condition. Two died at the scene, one en route to the hospital.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS A SIGNIFICANT ATTACK with CIVILIAN CASUALTIES in KHERSON OBLAST. The INCREASED DEATH TOLL is CONCERNING. While the source is Russian, the SPECIFIC DETAILS about the INJURED suggest a DEGREE OF RELIABILITY. This REQUIRES FURTHER INVESTIGATION to DETERMINE RESPONSIBILITY.

2. DRONE ACTIVITY UPDATES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Николаевский Ванёк (18:32 UTC): Reports "minus" on drones, indicating successful interceptions. Nine drones were headed from Kherson Oblast towards Snihurivka, four towards Posad-Pokrovske, and one each in Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, and Sumy Oblasts.
     • Assessment: This SUGGESTS A LARGE-SCALE DRONE ATTACK was UNDERWAY, with MULTIPLE DRONES targeting VARIOUS REGIONS. The "minus" report is POSITIVE, but VERIFICATION of INTERCEPTION SUCCESS is REQUIRED.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (18:33 UTC): Reports drone groups in the eastern and southern parts of Mykolaiv Oblast, moving northwest.
     • Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED DRONE ACTIVITY in MYKOLAIV OBLAST. The NORTHWEST MOVEMENT is CONSISTENT with PREVIOUS REPORTS.
   • Николаевский Ванёк (18:43 UTC): Reports one drone approaching Koraabelny district of Mykolaiv, with anti-drone efforts underway. Three drones west of Varvarivka, heading north. Six drones heading towards/through Bashtanka. Seven more drones flying past Bashtanka towards Yelanets. One drone heading towards/through Novyi Buh.
     • Assessment: This provides DETAILED INFORMATION on DRONE LOCATIONS AND MOVEMENTS in MYKOLAIV OBLAST. The MULTIPLE GROUPS and DIFFERENT TRAJECTORIES suggest a COMPLEX AND COORDINATED ATTACK.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (18:45 UTC): Reports new drone groups in Sumy Oblast, moving west.
     • Assessment: This indicates NEW DRONE ACTIVITY in SUMY OBLAST, EXPANDING THE GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE of the THREAT.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (18:58 UTC): Reports a group of enemy drones in Zaporizhia, moving north. * Assessment: This indicates a NEW DRONE ACTIVITY IN ZAPORIZHIA, adding more areas UNDER THREAT.

3. CLAIMED UKRAINIAN FORCES ENCIRCLED NEAR SUDZHA (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (18:44 UTC): Claims a Ukrainian force group is encircled between Sudzha and Malaya Loknya. Russian forces reportedly occupied a line near Kazachya Loknya, Lebedevka, and Martynovka, cutting off Ukrainian forces in the northern square. Some Ukrainians reportedly escaped towards Sudzha.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of RUSSIAN ADVANCES in KURSK OBLAST, but ADDS A CLAIM OF ENCIRCLEMENT. This is a POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT that REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION. If confirmed, this would represent a MAJOR RUSSIAN VICTORY and a SERIOUS SETBACK for UKRAINIAN FORCES.

4. CLAIMED LIBERATION OF SETTLEMENTS (HIGH/EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ASTRA (18:57 UTC), citing Alexander Khinshtein (acting governor of Kursk Oblast): Claims successful "Operation Truba" ("Pipe"), with Russian soldiers using a gas pipeline for covert advance. Reports liberation of Viktorovka, Nikolaevka, Staraya Sorochina, Lebedevka, Loknya, and Malaya Loknya. Claims the "Sever" group also took Cherkasskoye, Porechnoye, and Kositsa.
     • Assessment: This source CONFIRMS PREVIOUS REPORTS regarding LIBERATION OF MULTIPLE VILLAGES IN KURSK OBLAST. OPERATION TRUBA IS CONFIRMED.
   • MoD Russia (18:33 UTC): Claims that The Sever Group of Forces' units liberated Lebedevka (Kursk region) and Novenkoye (Sumy region) as well as Malaya Loknya, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Kositsa (Kursk region) during the offensive. Claims that The Vostok Group of Forces' units liberated Konstantinopol (Donetsk People's Republic). Claims that 6 AFU soldiers surrendered. * Assessment: This source CONFIRMS PREVIOUS REPORTS regarding LIBERATION OF MULTIPLE VILLAGES.

• Рыбарь (18:56): Claims that The Sever Group of Forces' units liberated Novgorodskoye and are advancing to Basovka. Claims that the 51st Airborne Regiment and 137th Motorized Regiment captured Lebedevka. Claims that Viktorovka was captured. Claims that Russian forces cut the wedge between Pogrebki and Khitrovsky Yar. Claims that the 30th Motor Rifle Regiment liberated Kositsa. Claims that the soldiers went through the forest towards Kubatkina. Claims that Martynovka was captured and survivors were blocked at the exit of the village.
  • Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of RUSSIAN ADVANCES in KURSK OBLAST. The OPERATION TRUBA is CONFIRMED. PROVIDES TACTICAL INFORMATION on RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE.

5. EXPLOSIONS IN KHERSON (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (18:49 UTC): Reports explosions in the Kyiv-controlled city of Kherson.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS EXPLOSIONS in KHERSON, but PROVIDES NO DETAILS on TARGETS OR CAUSE. This could be related to the REPORTED MARKET STRIKE or a SEPARATE INCIDENT.

6. POKROVSK DIRECTION FIGHTING (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): * Военкор Котенок (18:59): Reports intense fighting in Pokrovsk, especially near Malinovskaya junction and Elizavetovka. Claims of Ukrainian counterattacks. * Assessment: This confirms that the conflict is NOT OVER near POKROVSK.

7. OTHER REPORTS (MEDIUM/LOW PRIORITY):

   • Alex Parker Returns (18:30, 18:39, 18:48, 18:51, 18:58 UTC): Posts about political events and situations.
     • Assessment: These messages are NOT DIRECTLY RELATED to the MILITARY SITUATION in UKRAINE.
   • Два майора (18:31, 18:35 UTC): Posts about extremist threats.
     • Assessment: These messages are NOT DIRECTLY RELATED to the MILITARY SITUATION in UKRAINE.
   • Воин DV (18:35 UTC): Claims that France will send 195 million Euro's worth of weapons to Ukraine.
   • РБК-Україна (18:36): Claims that the end of intelligence sharing between US and Ukraine impacts situation at the front. Claims that Ukrainian troops cannot use some of their best weapons.
     • Assessment: Confirms that the LACK OF AMERICAN AID IS HURTING UKRAINE.
   • Старше Эдды (18:38 UTC): Claims that Elon Musk said that he would not turn off Starlink for Ukrainian troops.
   • Оперативний ЗСУ (18:38 UTC): Video about 225 OShP anniversary.
   • WarGonzo (18:45 UTC): Video about raising flag in Malaya Loknya.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (18:45 UTC): Reports new drone groups on Sumy region, moving west.
     • Assessment: This CONFIRMS A NEW THREAT FROM DRONES, this time in SUMY OBLAST.
   • Colonelcassad (18:46 UTC): Claims that Röpcke came up with a new excuse for the destruction of Nord Stream.
   • Филолог в засаде, Vault 8. Убежище №8. (18:48): Posts about compensation for soldiers, comparing it to the cost of drones.
   • Новости Москвы (18:48): Weather report.
   • STERNENKO (18:49 UTC): Reports that Trump said that Zelensky is not grateful to the US.
   • РБК-Україна (18:51 UTC): Claims that tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico may become bigger.
   • Военкор Котенок (18:56 UTC): Posts about situation in Syria.
   • Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (18:53): Ridicules the idea of Ukrainian troops bombing a vegetable market.
   • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (18:54): Video of a drone attack on a Russian vehicle.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • CONFIRMED DEATH TOLL INCREASE in KHERSON OBLAST MARKET STRIKE, now at THREE DEAD and NINE INJURED.
  • CLAIMED ENCIRCLEMENT OF UKRAINIAN FORCES near SUDZHA, KURSK OBLAST. REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION.
  • RUSSIAN FORCES CONTINUE TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT ADVANCES in KURSK OBLAST, with CONFIRMED REPORTS OF MULTIPLE SETTLEMENTS CAPTURED. The OPERATION TRUBA is CONFIRMED.
  • ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED EXTREME-PRIORITY ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • WIDESPREAD AND COMPLEX DRONE ACTIVITY CONTINUES, with MULTIPLE GROUPS targeting VARIOUS REGIONS, including MYKOLAIV, SUMY, AND ZAPORIZHIA OBLASTS. REPORTS OF INTERCEPTIONS require VERIFICATION.
  • CONFIRMED EXPLOSIONS in KHERSON.
  • ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED HIGH-PRIORITY ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

  • ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED MEDIUM-PRIORITY ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.

• LOW PRIORITY:

  • ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED LOW-PRIORITY ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.

Updated Recommendations

1. ADDRESS KHERSON OBLAST MARKET STRIKE (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • IMMEDIATELY INVESTIGATE the MARKET STRIKE in KHERSON OBLAST to DETERMINE RESPONSIBILITY and GATHER EVIDENCE.
   • PROVIDE MEDICAL ASSISTANCE to the INJURED and SUPPORT to the FAMILIES OF THE DECEASED.
   • DOCUMENT THE INCIDENT as a POTENTIAL WAR CRIME.

2. VERIFY CLAIMED ENCIRCLEMENT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • URGENTLY DEPLOY RECONNAISSANCE ASSETS to VERIFY THE CLAIM of UKRAINIAN FORCES ENCIRCLED near SUDZHA.
   • ASSESS THE SITUATION and DEVELOP CONTINGENCY PLANS to ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL ENCIRCLEMENT, including BREAKOUT ATTEMPTS or REINFORCEMENT EFFORTS.

3. MAINTAIN HEIGHTENED AIR DEFENSE READINESS, EXPAND FOCUS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT STATUS for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS across UKRAINE, with PRIORITY given to MYKOLAIV, SUMY, AND ZAPORIZHIA OBLASTS due to CONFIRMED DRONE ACTIVITY.
   • DEPLOY ADDITIONAL AIR DEFENSE ASSETS to THREATENED AREAS if possible.
   • CONTINUE TO TRACK DRONE MOVEMENTS and PROVIDE REAL-TIME WARNINGS to CIVILIANS.

4. MONITOR AND RESPOND TO RUSSIAN ADVANCES (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS ACTIONS.

5. ADDRESS EXPLOSIONS IN KHERSON (HIGH PRIORITY, INVESTIGATION):

   • INVESTIGATE THE EXPLOSIONS in KHERSON to DETERMINE CAUSE, TARGETS, AND DAMAGE.
   • PROVIDE ASSISTANCE to AFFECTED CIVILIANS.

6. ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND DYNAMIC. The INCREASED DEATH TOLL in the KHERSON OBLAST MARKET STRIKE, the CLAIMED ENCIRCLEMENT of UKRAINIAN FORCES, the CONTINUED WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY, and the CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES all require IMMEDIATE AND FOCUSED ATTENTION. RAPID RESPONSE, CONTINUOUS MONITORING, and VERIFICATION OF CLAIMS are ESSENTIAL.