Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 9, 2025, 16:00 UTC
Key Changes and Developments (15:31 UTC - 16:00 UTC)
CONFIRMATION OF WIDESPREAD RUSSIAN ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (15:51 UTC): Reports that Russia launched approximately 1200 GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS, nearly 870 ATTACK DRONES, and over 80 MISSILES of VARIOUS TYPES across Ukraine THIS WEEK.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS A MASSIVE ESCALATION in RUSSIAN AERIAL ATTACKS across UKRAINE. The SCALE and INTENSITY of these attacks are UNPRECEDENTED, indicating a MAJOR SHIFT in RUSSIAN STRATEGY. This REINFORCES the EXTREME PRIORITY assessment of the THREAT to UKRAINIAN INFRASTRUCTURE and CIVILIAN POPULATIONS. The use of GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS (KABs) is PARTICULARLY CONCERNING, as they are MORE ACCURATE and DESTRUCTIVE than UN-GUIDED BOMBS.
AIR RAID ALERT IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (15:51 UTC): Announces an AIR RAID ALERT across ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (15:51 UTC): Reports ACTIVITY OF ENEMY TACTICAL AVIATION in the SOUTH-EASTERN DIRECTION and a THREAT OF AVIATION WEAPONS.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS AN IMMINENT THREAT of AIR ATTACKS in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST. The REPORT OF ENEMY TACTICAL AVIATION ACTIVITY reinforces the SERIOUSNESS of the THREAT.
MARKET ATTACK IN KHERSON OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Mash на Донбассе (15:31 UTC): Reports a Ukrainian Armed Forces (VSU) HIMARS STRIKE on a MARKET in VELYKI KOPANY, KHERSON OBLAST. Claims TWO HIMARS ROCKETS were used, with DOZENS OF FARMERS AND BUYERS present. Reports SEVEN INJURED, including a DRIVER and a PARAMEDIC, and ONE DEAD.
Assessment: This report REQUIRES VERIFICATION FROM INDEPENDENT SOURCES. If confirmed, this represents a SERIOUS ATTACK on a CIVILIAN TARGET, potentially constituting a WAR CRIME. The use of HIMARS ROCKETS indicates a PRECISION STRIKE, suggesting DELIBERATE TARGETING of the MARKET.
RUSSIAN ADVANCES AND CLAIMS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):
Kotsnews (15:44 UTC): Claims the 9TH REGIMENT has RETURNED to a FORMERLY HELD POSITION described as a "women's colony," referencing fighting in AUGUST OF LAST YEAR.
Kotsnews (15:44 UTC): Reports CAPTURE OF AN ABRAMS TANK near NIKOLAEVKA by the 22ND MOTORIZED RIFLE REGIMENT, claiming it was immobilized by FPV DRONES a couple of weeks ago.
Z комитет + карта СВО (15:47 UTC): Claims Russian Armed Forces (VS RF) have LIBERATEDMALAYA LOKNYA (with video), LOKNYA, and KUBATKI.
WarGonzo (15:49 UTC): Claims that, during the retreat from MALAYA LOKNYA, Ukrainian forces THREW GRENADES at LOCALS. Reports the RESCUE of a CIVILIAN from a COLLAPSED CELLAR.
* Два майора (15:30 UTC): Reports that the 1st battalion of the 34th mountain brigade "liberated" Malaya Loknya.
Assessment: These reports REQUIRE CAREFUL ANALYSIS AND VERIFICATION. The claim of capturing an ABRAMS TANK is SIGNIFICANT and, if confirmed, would be a MAJOR PROPAGANDA VICTORY for RUSSIA. The claims of liberating multiple settlements BUILD UPON PREVIOUS REPORTS of RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the KURSK OBLAST BORDER REGION. The report of UKRAINIAN FORCES THROWING GRENADES AT LOCALS is SERIOUS and, if confirmed, would be a WAR CRIME.
OTHER UPDATES
*MoD Russia* (15:32 UTC): Displays a video of its EOD group from the 58th Combined Army (Dnepr Group of Forces) eliminating unexploded ordnance in the Orekhov direction.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
CONFIRMED MASSIVE ESCALATION in RUSSIAN AERIAL ATTACKS across UKRAINE, with APPROXIMATELY 1200 GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS, nearly 870 ATTACK DRONES, and over 80 MISSILES used THIS WEEK. This represents a MAJOR SHIFT in RUSSIAN STRATEGY.
CONFIRMED RUSSIAN CAPTURE OF MALAYA LOKNYA, with GEOLOCATED EVIDENCE and MULTIPLE REPORTS confirming the ADVANCE. This represents a MAJOR RUSSIAN VICTORY in the KURSK OBLAST BORDER REGION.
RUSSIAN FORCES CLAIM CAPTURE OF MULTIPLE OTHER SETTLEMENTS in the KURSK REGION, including MARTYNOVKA, CHERKASSKOE PORECHNOE, and the HAMLETS OF KOSITSA AND PRAVDA. These claims, if confirmed, represent a RAPID COLLAPSE of UKRAINIAN DEFENSES in the AREA.
RUSSIAN FORCES additionally CLAIM CAPTURE of LOKNYA and KUBATKI.
POTENTIAL ENCIRCLEMENT OF SUDZHA, as claimed by Russian sources, poses an IMMINENT THREAT to UKRAINIAN FORCES in the REGION.
ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED EXTREME-PRIORITY ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.
HIGH PRIORITY:
AIR RAID ALERT in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST, with CONFIRMED THREAT of AIR ATTACKS due to ENEMY TACTICAL AVIATION ACTIVITY.
CONFIRMED enemy use of guided aerial bombs (KAB) and drones.
REPORTED HIMARS STRIKE on a MARKET in KHERSON OBLAST, with POTENTIAL CIVILIAN CASUALTIES. URGENT VERIFICATION is CRITICAL.
POTENTIAL WITHDRAWAL OF US SUPPORT, particularly TECHNICAL SUPPORT FOR F-16s, remains a MAJOR CONCERN. The CLAIM OF HALTED MAINTENANCE and SPARE PARTS SUPPLY is CRITICAL.
ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED HIGH-PRIORITY ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
RUSSIAN FORCES claim they have RETURNED to a FORMER POSITION described as a "women's colony," referencing combat last August.
RUSSIAN FORCES claim the CAPTURE of an ABRAMS TANK.
* ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED MEDIUM-PRIORITY ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.
LOW PRIORITY:
ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED LOW-PRIORITY ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.
Updated Recommendations
ADDRESS THE MASSIVE ESCALATION IN RUSSIAN AERIAL ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS ACTIONS.
URGENTLY ASSESS THE IMPACT of the INTENSIFIED AERIAL ATTACKS on UKRAINIAN INFRASTRUCTURE, MILITARY POSITIONS, and CIVILIAN POPULATIONS.
REINFORCE AIR DEFENSES across UKRAINE, prioritizing CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE and POPULATION CENTERS.
SEEK IMMEDIATE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT from INTERNATIONAL PARTNERS for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS, AMMUNITION, and OTHER NECESSARY EQUIPMENT.
DEVELOP AND IMPLEMENT STRATEGIES to MITIGATE THE IMPACT of GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS, including COUNTER-ELECTRONIC WARFARE MEASURES and IMPROVED TARGETING INTELLIGENCE.
RESPOND TO THE AIR RAID ALERT IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
MAINTAIN HEIGHTENED ALERT STATUS for ALL AIR DEFENSE UNITS in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST.
DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE COUNTER-DRONE SYSTEMS to MITIGATE the THREAT OF DRONE ATTACKS.
ENSURE CIVILIAN POPULATIONS are AWARE OF THE THREAT and HAVE ACCESS TO SHELTERS.
INVESTIGATE THE REPORTED MARKET ATTACK IN KHERSON OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
URGENTLY VERIFY the report of the HIMARS STRIKE on the MARKET in VELYKI KOPANY.
GATHER EVIDENCE from INDEPENDENT SOURCES, including WITNESS TESTIMONY, SATELLITE IMAGERY, and ON-THE-GROUND ASSESSMENTS.
IF CONFIRMED, DOCUMENT THE ATTACK as a POTENTIAL WAR CRIME and PREPARE FOR INTERNATIONAL CONDEMNATION.
PROVIDE MEDICAL ASSISTANCE to ANY INJURED CIVILIANS.
ADDRESS THE RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN KURSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS ACTIONS.
URGENTLY VERIFY Russian claims of capturing LOKNYA and KUBATKI.
URGENTLY VERIFY Russian claims of capturing MARTYNOVKA, CHERKASSKOE PORECHNOE, and the HAMLETS OF KOSITSA AND PRAVDA.
DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to ASSESS THE SITUATION around SUDZHA and DETERMINE THE RISK OF ENCIRCLEMENT.
REINFORCE UKRAINIAN DEFENSES in AREAS at RISK OF ENCIRCLEMENT.
ESTABLISH ALTERNATIVE DEFENSIVE POSITIONS and PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL WITHDRAWAL if NECESSARY.
LAUNCH COUNTERATTACKS to DISRUPT RUSSIAN ADVANCES and PREVENT ENCIRCLEMENT.
PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL EVACUATION of CIVILIANS from AREAS UNDER THREAT.
ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL WITHDRAWAL OF US SUPPORT (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
URGENTLY ASSESS THE IMPACT of the POTENTIAL LOSS OF US TECHNICAL SUPPORT for F-16s.
SEEK ALTERNATIVE SOURCES of MAINTENANCE and SPARE PARTS for F-16s.
ADJUST TACTICS AND DEPLOYMENT of F-16s to MINIMIZE THEIR EXPOSURE to RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSES if MAINTENANCE ISSUES ARISE.
MAINTAIN DIALOGUE with US OFFICIALS to CLARIFY THE SITUATION and SEEK CONTINUED SUPPORT.
VERIFY AND RESPOND TO THE REPORT OF THE CAPTURE OF AN ABRAMS TANK AND THE RETURN OF THE 9TH DIVISION TO THEIR FORMER POSITION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Verify and respond to the RETURN of the 9TH REGIMENT to a FORMER POSITION.
VERIFY AND RESPOND TO THE REPORTED CAPTURE OF AN ABRAMS TANK. DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to VERIFY.
ANALYZE THE POTENTIAL IMPACT ON UKRAINIAN FORCES and the broader conflict, particularly in terms of PROPAGANDA and MORALE.
DEVELOP AND IMPLEMENTCOUNTERMEASURES as needed.
MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL. The MASSIVE ESCALATION in RUSSIAN AERIAL ATTACKS, the CONFIRMED CAPTURE OF MALAYA LOKNYA, and the RAPID RUSSIAN ADVANCES in KURSK OBLAST represent a MAJOR SHIFT in the CONFLICT. The POTENTIAL WITHDRAWAL OF US SUPPORT, particularly TECHNICAL SUPPORT FOR F-16s, poses a SERIOUS THREAT to UKRAINIAN MILITARY CAPABILITIES. The REPORTED MARKET ATTACK in KHERSON OBLAST raises SERIOUS CONCERNS about POTENTIAL WAR CRIMES. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is ESSENTIAL to MITIGATE THE RISKS and PREVENT FURTHER LOSSES.
[Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs]
Current Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:
The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.66
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.62
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.55
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.998
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.87
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.65
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.3
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.25
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.78
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.75
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.68
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.68
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.74
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are related to weather conditions affecting air traffic control.: 0.02
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.44
Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
A Ukrainian drone was used in an attempt to down a Russian drone: 0.6
A Ukranian BMC Kirpi was captured.: 0.4
Guided Aerial Bomb launch on Kharkiv.: 0.8
40 people were injured, and 11 were killed by an attack on Dobropillia.: 0.85
Telegram was blocked in Dagestan and Chechnya.: 0.7
Netherlands is planning to invest in Ukraine.: 0.6
A bridge between Myropillia and Hornal may have been destroyed.: 0.4
Russian forces almost liberated Novenkoye, and are approaching Basovka.: 0.5
Europe is searching for a Starlink alternative.: 0.6
A Russian Iskander missile struck a US HIMARS transport loading vehicle.: 0.3
Reports of the logistical situation in the Kursk region is very bad.: 0.9
Sudzha: 0.8
Reports of widespread Russian drone and missile strikes continue, confirmed.: 0.9
CLAIMED UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACKS near POKROVSK and TORETSK, potentially SLOWING DOWN the RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE. REQUIRES VERIFICATION. : 0.7
Confirmed Russian airstrike on claimed Ukrainian command post in Huliaipole.: 0.95
POTENTIAL HALT OF US MILITARY AID (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, NEEDS VERIFICATION):* POTENTIALLY CRITICAL IMPACT on UKRAINIAN MILITARY CAPABILITIES. : 0.99
*UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS FORCIBLY DEPLOYED AFTER REFUSING TO FIGHT (HIGH PRIORITY).**: 0.8
*New type of Ukrainian drone reported, controlled by fiber-optic cable.: 0.9
*New Russian drone "Avatar" reported.: 0.7
*Reports of heavy Russian casualties (Cemetery report).: 0.8
*German plant in Ukraine.: 0.6
*Reports on a Russian missile strike on the 168th reserve battalion.: 0.6
*Ukrainian forces are reporting progress in Toretsk.: 0.8
Verify and respond to the report of the Russian advance near Seversk.: 0.7
REPORTED UKRAINIAN NAVAL DRONE ATTACK on RUSSIAN GAS PLATFORM in the BLACK SEA, potentially using a NEW MOTHER DRONE CAPABILITY.: 0.88
Expanded Drone Threat.: 0.76
Attack in Petropavlovka.: 0.8
Trump is considering making mineral deals to continue supplying Ukraine.: 0.7
Trump wants Ukraine to cede territory to Russia in exchange for US military aid and intelligence sharing.: 0.32
Trump is using the mineral deal as leverage to pressure Ukraine into making concessions in negotiations with Russia.: 0.24
Trump wants Zelensky to resign or hold elections as a condition for continued US support.: 0.24
An EU summit statement on Ukraine, approved by 26 countries, has no legal force.: 0.75
Trump ordered the cessation of critical aid for F-16 JAMMING SYSTEMS in Ukraine: 0.79
Russian recruitment efforts are focused on drone operators and EW specialists.: 0.7
Russian forces are completing the defeat of Ukrainian forces near Martynovka: 0.5
Russian forces control the southern outskirts of Konstantinopol.: 0.7
The SAMP/T air defense system deployed in Ukraine may be experiencing significant issues, potentially reducing its effectiveness against ballistic missiles.: 0.65
There is an active air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.95
There is an increased threat of enemy tactical aviation activity in the south-eastern direction.: 0.9
Only the outskirts of Andreyevka are captured.: 0.7
Russian forces liberated Lebedevka and Novenkoye.: 0.52
US will not resume aid to Ukraine after a mineral deal: 0.77
Russian forces liberated houses in Nikolaevka and Staraya Sorochina equipped as firing positions by Ukrainian militants and foreign mercenaries.: 0.6
US technical support and maintenance of F-16s transferred to Ukraine has stopped.: 0.7
The militarization of youth is occurring in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including the use of the "Yunarmiya" youth military organization.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces lost more than 50 personnel during the "liberation" of Konstantinopol in the DPR.: 0.42
The US has partially ceased supporting Ukrainian F-16s, but only for the radar jamming systems.: 0.85
Russian forces claim they captured Lebedevka: 0.7
Repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation.: 0.7
Russian drone strike killed 2 and injured 1: 0.9
Russian forces claim advances in Kursk Oblast: 0.8
Russian forces have practically encircled Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast.: 0.5
A Russian "Tor" was destroyed: 0.42
9 vehicles were destroyed in Sudzha.: 0.7
A drone struck a house in Bilenke, injuring a young man.: 0.8
Building damaged by shelling/airstrike.: 0.48
Image is being used for propaganda purposes.: 0.12
The area requires humanitarian aid and civilian evacuation.: 0.12
Building damaged due to non-military cause (e.g., earthquake, structural failure).: 0.08
China, Russia and Iran are holding a joint naval exercise.: 0.6
Ukrainian drones have been destroyed over Belgorod and Kursk.: 0.5
Launches of guided aerial bombs on Donetsk.: 0.6
A high-speed target is heading towards Poltava.: 0.35
Russian forces advanced near Pyatikhatki and Shcherbaki: 0.4
Ukrainian forces are resisting, using artillery and drones: 0.5
Russian air force and "Grad" rocket systems are targeting Ukrainian forward positions: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are actively using drones, including kamikaze drones and Baba Yaga drones: 0.7
Russian forces are successfully identifying and targeting Ukrainian drone launch sites: 0.6
There is evidence of nationalist and aggressive ideology within Ukrainian forces: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are taking heavy losses, with some personnel choosing to end their lives rather than surrender: 0.7
Russia preparing for a large-scale missile strike.: 0.6
Russian reconnaissance is taking place in Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, and Ternopil Oblasts.: 0.6
Russian forces captured Kubatkino.: 0.7
Group Aida SpN 'Akhmat' jointly with 30 MSP liberated Kubatkino using an underground maneuver.: 0.8
Ballistic threat reduced, but air threat still present: 0.65
Ukrainian drone shoots down Russian drones.: 0.7
Russian forces still in the Kursk region.: 0.7
US technical support for Ukrainian F-16 fighters has officially stopped.: 0.9
Russian forces are targeting Ukrainian communication nodes.: 0.8
Russian forces are clearing Martynovka: 0.85
Russian forces have fully captured Mala Ohna.: 0.95
The telecommunications tower will be used to improve Russian communications and disrupt Ukrainian communications.: 0.78
Ukrainian forces successfully targeted and destroyed a Russian TOS system in Kharkiv Oblast.: 0.85
The video of the TOS destruction is part of a Ukrainian psychological operation to demoralize Russian forces and boost Ukrainian morale.: 0.65
The strike on the market in Kherson Oblast resulted in civilian casualties.: 0.8
France will accelerate arms supplies to Ukraine: 0.8
Poland plans to increase the size of their army, to 500 thousand people.: 0.8
The 80th Brigade is engaged in cross-border operations in the Kursk region.: 0.32
