Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 9, 2025, 13:30 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (13:01 UTC - 13:30 UTC)

1. JOINT NAVAL EXERCISES (CHINA, RUSSIA, IRAN) (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • РБК-Україна (13:06 UTC) reports that China, Russia, and Iran will hold joint naval exercises titled "Maritime Security Belt - 2025" in the Gulf of Oman, near the Iranian port of Chabahar, starting on March 11th.
   • Assessment: This is NOT DIRECTLY RELATED to GROUND OPERATIONS in UKRAINE, but SIGNIFIES INCREASING MILITARY COOPERATION between RUSSIA, CHINA, AND IRAN. This COULD HAVE LONG-TERM IMPLICATIONS for the CONFLICT, including POTENTIAL WEAPONS TRANSFERS and INCREASED GEOPOLITICAL PRESSURE on UKRAINE and its ALLIES. It is CONSISTENT with the TREND of INCREASING MULTIPOLARITY and CHALLENGES to the US-LED WORLD ORDER.

2. ENEMY TACTICAL AVIATION ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (13:08 UTC): Reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the eastern direction and the threat of using air-launched weapons in front-line areas.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (13:26 UTC): Threat of ballistic weapons in the areas under the alert.
   • Assessment: CONFIRMS CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY and POTENTIAL TARGETING OF UKRAINIAN POSITIONS.

3. RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (13:21 UTC) reports that Russian air defense systems destroyed three Ukrainian drones over the territory of Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED UKRAINIAN DRONE ACTIVITY targeting RUSSIAN TERRITORY and RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE ENGAGEMENTS.

4. ADDITIONAL REPORTS OF GUIDED AERIAL BOMB LAUNCHES (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (13:16 UTC): Reports launches of guided aerial bombs by tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast.

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (13:12 UTC): Reports a high-speed target on Poltava.

   • Assessment: CONFIRMS CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR ATTACKS using GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS, specifically in DONETSK OBLAST.

5. ZAPORIZHZHIA DRONE ATTACK UPDATE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

• 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (13:03): Reports on a 16-year-old getting injured by drone attack.
  • Assessment: Confirmed.

6. RUSSIAN OPERATIONS ON THE ZAPORIZHZHIA FRONT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (13:28 UTC): Reports Russian airborne forces advancing near Pyatikhatki and Shcherbaki in the Zaporizhzhia direction. Claims Ukrainian forces are resisting, using artillery and drones. Reports Russian air force and "Grad" rocket systems are targeting Ukrainian forward positions.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of FIGHTING in the ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION and CLAIMS RUSSIAN ADVANCES. The CLAIM OF UKRAINIAN FORCES USING DRONES AND MINES is CONSISTENT with PREVIOUS REPORTS.

7. EU Commission to "military mode"

   • ТАСС (13:13 UTC) reports that the EU Commission will be switching to a "military mode".
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of FIGHTING in the DONETSK REGION.

8. "Northern Wind" Operation "Труба-3"

   • Colonelcassad (13:13): Claims that the "Northern Wind" of the 74th division of the Russian military is participating in "Труба-3"
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of FIGHTING in the DONETSK REGION.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • CONFIRMED PARTIAL CESSATION OF US SUPPORT FOR UKRAINIAN F-16S, specifically RADAR JAMMING EQUIPMENT. This SEVERELY DEGRADES UKRAINIAN AIR CAPABILITIES.
  • RUSSIAN FORCES CLAIM TO HAVE CAPTURED LEBEDEVKA (KURSK OBLAST). URGENT VERIFICATION NEEDED.
  • RUSSIAN FORCES CLAIM TO HAVE PRACTICALLY ENCIRCLED UKRAINIAN FORCES IN KURSK OBLAST. URGENT VERIFICATION ESSENTIAL.
  • CONFIRMED RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKE on IVASHKI (KHARKIV OBLAST), killing TWO CIVILIANS and INJURING ONE.
  • CONFIRMED RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKE on ZAPORIZHZHIA (ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST), injuring one 16-year old.
  • CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY and AIRSTRIKE WARNINGS, particularly in SUMY OBLAST and now DONETSK OBLAST.
  • GUIDED AERIAL BOMB LAUNCHES in DONETSK OBLAST.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • RUSSIAN CLAIMS of ADVANCES in KURSK OBLAST (Kubatkin, Kositsa). URGENT VERIFICATION NEEDED.
  • RUSSIAN CLAIM of DESTROYING UKRAINIAN CONVOY in SUDZHA. URGENT VERIFICATION NEEDED.
  • REPORTED DRONE STRIKE on BILENKE (ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST).
  • ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED HIGH-PRIORITY ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.
    • ENEMY TACTICAL AVIATION ACTIVITY.
  • RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY.
  • RUSSIAN OPERATIONS ON THE ZAPORIZHZHIA FRONT.

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

  • REPORTED DESTRUCTION of RUSSIAN TOR SAM. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
  • REPORTED DESTRUCTION of several Ukrainian military vehicles.
  • JOINT NAVAL EXERCISES (CHINA, RUSSIA, IRAN).

• LOW PRIORITY:

  • EU commission shifting into "military mode".
  • ALL PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED LOW-PRIORITY ISSUES REMAIN RELEVANT.

Updated Recommendations

1. ADDRESS THE CESSATION OF US SUPPORT FOR F-16 JAMMING EQUIPMENT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT, BUT ARE NOW EVEN MORE CRITICAL.
   • Urgently seek clarification from US OFFICIALS regarding the SPECIFIC REASONS for the CESSATION OF SUPPORT and POSSIBLE AVENUES FOR RESTORATION.
   • Explore alternative sources of JAMMING EQUIPMENT and MAINTENANCE SUPPORT from OTHER F-16 OPERATORS or THIRD-PARTY PROVIDERS.
   • Adjust operational plans to ACCOUNT FOR REDUCED F-16 EFFECTIVENESS against RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSES.
     • Prioritize missions where F-16S can OPERATE WITH REDUCED RISK, such as AIR-TO-GROUND ATTACKS in AREAS WITH LESS SOPHISTICATED AIR DEFENSES.
     • Increase reliance on OTHER AIR DEFENSE SUPPRESSION ASSETS, such as DRONES and ARTILLERY.

2. URGENTLY VERIFY AND RESPOND TO RUSSIAN CLAIMS IN KURSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT AND ARE FURTHER URGENTLY REINFORCED.
   • IMMEDIATELY DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to VERIFY the RUSSIAN CLAIMS of CAPTURING LEBEDEVKA, KUBATKIN, AND KOSITSA and ENCIRCLING UKRAINIAN FORCES.
   • IF CONFIRMED:
     • Assess the extent of the Russian advance and DETERMINE IF UKRAINIAN DEFENSES HAVE BEEN BREACHED or IF ENCIRCLEMENT IS IMMINENT.
     • Based on the assessment, immediately implement one of the following:
       • REINFORCE UKRAINIAN DEFENSES in the area.
       • ESTABLISH ALTERNATIVE DEFENSIVE POSITIONS.
       • CONDUCT A CONTROLLED WITHDRAWAL to PREVENT ENCIRCLEMENT of UKRAINIAN FORCES.
       • LAUNCH COUNTERATTACKS to BREAK ANY ENCIRCLEMENT.
   • IF NOT CONFIRMED:
     • Continue monitoring the SITUATION CLOSELY.
     • Prepare for potential Russian offensive operations in the AREA.

3. RESPOND TO THE IVASHKI, BILENKE, AND ZAPORIZHZHIA DRONE STRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • CONTINUE RESCUE OPERATIONS and PROVIDE MEDICAL ASSISTANCE to the INJURED.
   • ASSESS DAMAGE to INFRASTRUCTURE.
   • GATHER EVIDENCE of POTENTIAL WAR CRIMES.
   • Increase air defense patrols and EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS in CIVILIAN AREAS.

4. VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIM OF DESTROYING UKRAINIAN CONVOY IN SUDZHA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • DEPLOY RECONNAISSANCE ASSETS (drones, satellite imagery, human intelligence) to VERIFY the RUSSIAN CLAIM.
   • ASSESS UKRAINIAN EQUIPMENT LOSSES and CASUALTIES.
   • ADJUST LOGISTICAL ROUTES and CONVOY PROCEDURES to MITIGATE FUTURE RISKS.

5. VERIFY REPORTED DESTRUCTION OF RUSSIAN TOR SAM (MEDIUM PRIORITY, INTELLIGENCE GATHERING):

   • Gather additional intelligence to CONFIRM THE DESTRUCTION of the TOR SAM SYSTEM.
   • Assess the impact on RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE CAPABILITIES in the AREA.

6. MONITOR RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS MONITORING):

   • Monitor all reports of Russian air activities.
   • Maintain a high alert for air systems, particularly in SUMY OBLAST, and now, DONETSK OBLAST.

7. MONITOR RUSSIAN, CHINESE, AND IRANIAN NAVAL EXERCISES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, INTELLIGENCE GATHERING):

• Gather intelligence around the "Maritime Security Belt - 2025" activities.

8. MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation is EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND DETERIORATING RAPIDLY. The CONFIRMED PARTIAL CESSATION OF US SUPPORT FOR UKRAINIAN F-16S, combined with RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF SIGNIFICANT ADVANCES AND POTENTIAL ENCIRCLEMENT IN KURSK OBLAST, represents a MAJOR CRISIS for UKRAINE. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is ESSENTIAL to MITIGATE THE DAMAGE and PREVENT FURTHER LOSSES. The CONTINUED RUSSIAN ATTACKS on CIVILIAN AREAS underscore the HUMANITARIAN COST of the conflict.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

• The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.66
• Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.62
• The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
• The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
• The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
• The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
• Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.99
• Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.87
• Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
• Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.65
• Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
• 35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
• Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
• Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.3
• Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.25
• Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.78
• Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
• Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.75
• There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
• Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
• Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
• Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
• Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
• The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
• Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
• There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
• There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
• There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
• Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
• There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
• Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
• Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
• Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.68
• There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.68
• Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
• A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
• A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
• A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
• Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
• Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
• Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
• There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
• Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
• There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
• Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
• There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
• A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
• Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
• Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.74
• Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
• Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
• Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
• Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
• The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
• The restrictions are related to weather conditions affecting air traffic control.: 0.02
• The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
• The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
• Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
• A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
• The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
• US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
• The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
• The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
• Intense fighting continues in the area of ​​Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
• The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
• The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
• The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
• Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
• Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
• The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
• Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
• Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
• Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
• On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
• Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
• Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
• Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
• Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
• The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
• One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
• Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
• Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
• Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
• 40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
• Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
• Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
• Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
• Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
• Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
• Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
• Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
• There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
• A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
• A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
• An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
• Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
• All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
• The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
• Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
• The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
• 180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
• 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
• Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
• Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
• Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.44
• Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
• Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
• A Ukrainian drone was used in an attempt to down a Russian drone: 0.6
• A Ukranian BMC Kirpi was captured.: 0.4
• Guided Aerial Bomb launch on Kharkiv.: 0.8
• 40 people were injured, and 11 were killed by an attack on Dobropillia.: 0.85
• Telegram was blocked in Dagestan and Chechnya.: 0.7
• Netherlands is planning to invest in Ukraine.: 0.6
• A bridge between Myropillia and Hornal may have been destroyed.: 0.4
• Russian forces almost liberated Novenkoye, and are approaching Basovka.: 0.5
• Russian forces officially liberated Viktorovka.: 0.8
• Ukrainian forces are fleeing Cherkasskoye Porechnoye and Kositsa.: 0.6
• Poland announced military training for all men.: 0.3
• Republicans are calling on Trump to restore aid to Ukraine.: 0.4
• The main task of the Ukrainian army is to not lose what they currently hold.: 0.4
• Russian forces liberated Staraya Sorochina yesterday.: 0.4
• There is a threat of ballistic missile usage for Poltava.: 0.6
• Russian forces advanced 3km from Razdolnoye towards Bogatyr.:0.6
• The attack in Dobropillia injured up to 47 people and killed 11.: 0.9
• At least 20 civilians were killed in Russian attacks across Ukraine since the start of the day.: 0.8
• Russian forces used a gas pipeline near Sudzha to launch a surprise attack.: 0.37
• The pipeline attack was a disinformation campaign.: 0.4
• Hungary opposes financing an increase to the Ukranian military and opposes Ukraine's rapid ascension to the EU.: 0.7
• 5 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over Belgorod and Kursk.: 0.6
• Russian forces are storming Malaya Loknya.: 0.6
• One person was killed, and 5 were injured in Russian attacks in the Donetsk Region.: 0.7
• A bridge was destroyed on the bypass of Sudzha, impacting logistics for the Ukrainian forces.: 0.91
• Ukrainian forces repelled 12 attacks in the Kursk region.: 0.75
• Russian forces captured Konstantinopol.: 0.995
• Russian forces liberated Cherkasskoe Porechnoe.: 0.7
• Europe is searching for a Starlink alternative.: 0.6
• A Russian Iskander missile struck a US HIMARS transport loading vehicle.: 0.3
• Reports of the logistical situation in the Kursk region is very bad.: 0.9
• Sudzha: 0.8
• Reports of widespread Russian drone and missile strikes continue, confirmed.: 0.9
• CLAIMED UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACKS near POKROVSK and TORETSK, potentially SLOWING DOWN the RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE. REQUIRES VERIFICATION. : 0.7
• Confirmed Russian airstrike on claimed Ukrainian command post in Huliaipole.: 0.95
• POTENTIAL HALT OF US MILITARY AID (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, NEEDS VERIFICATION):* POTENTIALLY CRITICAL IMPACT on UKRAINIAN MILITARY CAPABILITIES. : 0.99
• *UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS FORCIBLY DEPLOYED AFTER REFUSING TO FIGHT (HIGH PRIORITY).**: 0.8
• *New type of Ukrainian drone reported, controlled by fiber-optic cable.: 0.9
• *New Russian drone "Avatar" reported.: 0.7
• *Reports of heavy Russian casualties (Cemetery report).: 0.8
• *German plant in Ukraine.: 0.6
• *Reports on a Russian missile strike on the 168th reserve battalion.: 0.6
• *Ukrainian forces are reporting progress in Toretsk.: 0.8
• Verify and respond to the report of the Russian advance near Seversk.: 0.7
• REPORTED UKRAINIAN NAVAL DRONE ATTACK on RUSSIAN GAS PLATFORM in the BLACK SEA, potentially using a NEW MOTHER DRONE CAPABILITY.: 0.88
• Expanded Drone Threat.: 0.76
• Attack in Petropavlovka.: 0.8
• Trump is considering making mineral deals to continue supplying Ukraine.: 0.7
• Trump wants Ukraine to cede territory to Russia in exchange for US military aid and intelligence sharing.: 0.32
• Trump is using the mineral deal as leverage to pressure Ukraine into making concessions in negotiations with Russia.: 0.24
• Trump wants Zelensky to resign or hold elections as a condition for continued US support.: 0.24
• An EU summit statement on Ukraine, approved by 26 countries, has no legal force.: 0.75
• Trump ordered the cessation of critical aid for F-16 JAMMING SYSTEMS in Ukraine: 0.79
• Russian recruitment efforts are focused on drone operators and EW specialists.: 0.7
• Russian forces are completing the defeat of Ukrainian forces near Martynovka: 0.5
• Russian forces control the southern outskirts of Konstantinopol.: 0.7
• The SAMP/T air defense system deployed in Ukraine may be experiencing significant issues, potentially reducing its effectiveness against ballistic missiles.: 0.65
• There is an active air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.95
• There is an increased threat of enemy tactical aviation activity in the south-eastern direction.: 0.9
• Only the outskirts of Andreyevka are captured.: 0.7
• Russian forces liberated Lebedevka and Novenkoye.: 0.52
• US will not resume aid to Ukraine after a mineral deal: 0.77
• Russian forces liberated houses in Nikolaevka and Staraya Sorochina equipped as firing positions by Ukrainian militants and foreign mercenaries.: 0.6
• US technical support and maintenance of F-16s transferred to Ukraine has stopped.: 0.5
• The militarization of youth is occurring in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including the use of the "Yunarmiya" youth military organization.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces lost more than 50 personnel during the "liberation" of Konstantinopol in the DPR.: 0.42
• The US has partially ceased supporting Ukrainian F-16s, but only for the radar jamming systems.: 0.85
• Russian forces claim they captured Lebedevka: 0.7
• Repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation.: 0.7
• Russian drone strike killed 2 and injured 1: 0.9
• Russian forces claim advances in Kursk Oblast: 0.8
• Russian forces have practically encircled Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast.: 0.5
• A Russian "Tor" was destroyed: 0.42
• 9 vehicles were destroyed in Sudzha.: 0.7
• A drone struck a house in Bilenke, injuring a young man.: 0.8
• Building damaged by shelling/airstrike.: 0.48
• Image is being used for propaganda purposes.: 0.12
• The area requires humanitarian aid and civilian evacuation.: 0.12
• Building damaged due to non-military cause (e.g., earthquake, structural failure).: 0.08
• China, Russia and Iran are holding a joint naval exercise.: 0.6
• Ukrainian drones have been destroyed over Belgorod and Kursk.: 0.5
• Launches of guided aerial bombs on Donetsk.: 0.6
• A high-speed target is heading towards Poltava.: 0.35