Situation Report

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 9, 2025, 09:30 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (09:00 UTC - 09:30 UTC)

1. KURSK OBLAST: OFFICIAL CONFIRMATION OF LEBEDEVKA CAPTURE, NOVYENKOYE CAPTURE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN MoD):

   • ТАСС (09:04 UTC, 09:20 UTC), Два майора (09:05 UTC), Colonelcassad (09:07 UTC), Военкор Котенок (09:12 UTC): The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) OFFICIALLY ANNOUNCED the CAPTURE OF LEBEDEVKA in KURSK OBLAST and NOVYENKOYE in SUMY OBLAST. TASS reports that the capture of Lebedevka puts Russian forces within JUST OVER 10 KM OF SUDZHA.
   • Assessment: This OFFICIAL CONFIRMATION by the RUSSIAN MoD SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASES the RELIABILITY of previous reports regarding RUSSIAN ADVANCES in KURSK OBLAST. The CAPTURE OF TWO SETTLEMENTS further confirms a SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE FRONTLINE. The PROXIMITY TO SUDZHA (just over 10km) REINFORCES THE EXTREME THREAT to the city. The mention of NOVYENKOYE in SUMY OBLAST indicates POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF RUSSIAN OPERATIONS.

2. KURSK OBLAST: RUSSIAN FORCES REPORTEDLY INFLICT HEAVY CASUALTIES, UKRAINIAN POWS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN MoD/SOURCES):

   • ТАСС (09:06 UTC): Reports Ukrainian losses in Kursk Oblast exceeding 350 personnel in the past 24 hours, with six soldiers surrendering.
   • Дневник Десантника (09:08 UTC): Reports a Russian missile strike (using an Iskander) on Ukrainian positions near Sudzha. Video evidence.
   • Народная милиция ДНР (09:09 UTC): Reports on a strike.
   • Assessment: The REPORTED CASUALTY FIGURES, if accurate, represent a SIGNIFICANT LOSS for UKRAINIAN FORCES in the AREA. The VIDEO EVIDENCE of a MISSILE STRIKE near SUDZHA SUPPORTS claims of INTENSE FIGHTING. The reported SURRENDER OF UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS FURTHER REINFORCES the assessment of a DETERIORATING SITUATION for UKRAINE.

3. KURSK OBLAST: REPORTS OF RUSSIAN ADVANCES AND UKRAINIAN RETREATS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (09:17 UTC): Shows images of Ukrainian forces fleeing Malaya Loknya.
   • Assessment: The reports on retreats SUPPORT the overall assessment of RUSSIAN ADVANCES and a SHIFTING FRONTLINE.

4. DONETSK OBLAST: REPORTS OF FIGHTING NEAR DZERZHINSK (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):

   • Народная милиция ДНР (09:09 UTC): Video claims to show Russian forces destroying Ukrainian groups attempting a counterattack near Dzerzhinsk.
   • Assessment: The reports of strikes against troops SUPPORT the assessment of CONTINUED FIGHTING in DONETSK OBLAST.

5. SYRIA: RENEWED CLASHES REPORTED (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN/OTHER SOURCES):

   • ТАСС (09:09 UTC), ASTRA (09:23 UTC), Alex Parker Returns (09:19 UTC): Reports renewed clashes in Latakia province, Syria, between security forces loyal to the new Syrian government and armed supporters of former President Assad. ASTRA reports over 1,000 casualties, including 745 civilians.
   • Assessment: While not directly related to the Ukraine conflict, these reports highlight ONGOING INSTABILITY IN SYRIA. The HIGH CIVILIAN CASUALTY FIGURES are CONCERNING.

6. BELGOROD OBLAST: MINE INCIDENT REPORTED (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (09:24 UTC): Reports a man injured by a mine detonation in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast.
   • Assessment: This incident HIGHLIGHTS THE CONTINUED DANGER posed by MINES in BORDER REGIONS.

7. BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT LIFTED (LOW PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (09:00 UTC): Reports that the threat of ballistic missile use has been lifted.

8. MAP UPDATES (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

• Colonelcassad (09:28 UTC): Shows a map claiming many changes, such as the capture of settlements.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • OFFICIAL RUSSIAN MoD CONFIRMATION OF CAPTURE OF LEBEDEVKA (KURSK OBLAST) AND NOVENKOYE (SUMY OBLAST). RUSSIAN FORCES NOW WITHIN JUST OVER 10 KM OF SUDZHA. This is the MOST SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT and DEMANDS IMMEDIATE ACTION.
  • REPORTS OF HEAVY UKRAINIAN CASUALTIES and POWs in KURSK OBLAST.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • CONTINUED REPORTS OF FIGHTING and RUSSIAN STRIKES near SUDZHA.
  • All other previously identified high-priority issues REMAIN RELEVANT.

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

  • REPORTS OF FIGHTING near DZERZHINSK (Donetsk Oblast).
  • MINE INCIDENT reported in BELGOROD OBLAST.

• All map updates should be looked at carefully.

• LOW PRIORITY:

  • RENEWED CLASHES reported in SYRIA.
  • BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT LIFTED.

Updated Recommendations

1. RESPOND TO THE CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN KURSK AND SUMY OBLASTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • IMMEDIATELY REINFORCE DEFENSIVE POSITIONS SOUTH AND WEST OF SUDZHA to PREVENT FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCES. This is now the TOP PRIORITY.
   • URGENTLY ASSESS THE VIABILITY of HOLDING SUDZHA. Develop and be prepared to implement CONTINGENCY PLANS for a CONTROLLED WITHDRAWAL if necessary, prioritizing the SAFETY OF CIVILIAN POPULATIONS.
   • DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to MONITOR RUSSIAN MOVEMENTS and IDENTIFY POTENTIAL TARGETS in KURSK and SUMY OBLASTS.
   • EXPLORE OPTIONS for COUNTER-OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS to RELIEVE PRESSURE on SUDZHA, if FEASIBLE AND RESOURCES PERMIT. HOWEVER, prioritize DEFENSIVE MEASURES given the RAPIDITY OF THE RUSSIAN ADVANCE.

2. ADDRESS ELON MUSK'S STARLINK THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS STAND. THIS REMAINS A CRITICAL VULNERABILITY.

3. VERIFY AND RESPOND TO REPORTS OF HIGH UKRAINIAN CASUALTIES AND POWS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • ATTEMPT TO INDEPENDENTLY VERIFY the REPORTED CASUALTY FIGURES.
   • ASSESS THE IMPACT on UKRAINIAN MORALE and COMBAT EFFECTIVENESS in the AREA.
   • ENSURE that any UKRAINIAN POWS are TREATED IN ACCORDANCE WITH INTERNATIONAL LAW.

4. RESPOND TO CONTINUED FIGHTING NEAR SUDZHA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS near SUDZHA.
   • DISPERSE LOGISTICAL ASSETS to REDUCE VULNERABILITY TO ATTACK.
   • PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL URBAN WARFARE within SUDZHA.

5. MONITOR AND RESPOND TO REPORTS OF FIGHTING NEAR DZERZHINSK (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • CONTINUOUSLY MONITOR the SITUATION near DZERZHINSK.
   • ADJUST TACTICS as NECESSARY.

6. ADDRESS THE MINE INCIDENT IN BELGOROD OBLAST (MEDIUM PRIORITY, INVESTIGATION AND ACTION):

   • INVESTIGATE the CIRCUMSTANCES of the MINE INCIDENT.
   • ENSURE ADEQUATE MINE AWARENESS TRAINING for CIVILIANS and MILITARY PERSONNEL in BORDER REGIONS.

7. MONITOR THE SITUATION IN SYRIA (LOW PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS MONITORING):

   • MAINTAIN AWARENESS of the SITUATION IN SYRIA but DO NOT DIVERT RESOURCES from the UKRAINE CONFLICT unless DIRECTLY IMPACTED.

The situation has SIGNIFICANTLY DETERIORATED with the OFFICIAL RUSSIAN MoD CONFIRMATION of CAPTURES IN KURSK AND SUMY OBLASTS. The RAPID RUSSIAN ADVANCE towards SUDZHA poses an EXTREME AND IMMEDIATE THREAT. DECISIVE ACTION is REQUIRED to STABILIZE THE FRONTLINE, PROTECT CIVILIAN POPULATIONS, and PREVENT FURTHER RUSSIAN GAINS. The STARLINK VULNERABILITY REMAINS A CRITICAL CONCERN.