Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 8, 2025, 18:37 UTC
Changes and New Information (18:08 UTC - 18:37 UTC)
RUSSIAN CLAIM OF DESTROYING LOGISTICAL BRIDGES NEAR SUDZHA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, VIDEO/IMAGE):
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (18:31 UTC) claims Russian forces are destroying Ukrainian logistics in Sudzha by destroying bridges around the city. Claims Russian paratroopers destroyed a bridge linking Sudzha and Zamostye, and that Ukrainian forces had pre-mined it for a potential retreat. Claims the bridge was destroyed by an "opto-electronic drone." Also claims Russian Air Force (VKS) destroyed a bridge near Knyazhye-2, further disrupting Ukrainian supply lines north of Sudzha.
Video analysis shows footage that appears to be from a drone or a similar platform. The footage includes:
* Reconnaissance of a bridge
An aerial view that confirms a strike.
Image Analysis confirms the destruction of a bridge.
Assessment: This REINFORCES RUSSIAN CLAIMS of TARGETING UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS in the SUDZHA AREA. The claimed destruction of TWO BRIDGES is SIGNIFICANT, further ISOLATING UKRAINIAN FORCES and LIMITING THEIR ABILITY TO RESUPPLY OR REINFORCE. The claim of using an "opto-electronic drone" to target pre-placed explosives SUGGESTS A HIGH LEVEL OF RUSSIAN INTELLIGENCE AND PRECISION STRIKE CAPABILITY. REQUIRES VERIFICATION, but if confirmed, this represents a MAJOR BLOW to UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE EFFORTS in SUDZHA.
AIR RAID ALERTS IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (18:12 UTC) issued an air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast, warning of a threat from attack UAVs.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (18:14 UTC) confirmed the threat of attack UAVs in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Also reports "Shahed" drones in Sumy Oblast moving south towards Poltava Oblast, and "Shahed" drones in Poltava Oblast moving south towards Kremenchuk.
* Assessment: The reports reinforce previous developments.
UKRAINIAN REPORT OF RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK IN ROSTOV OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, VIDEO):
STERNENKO (18:33 UTC) reports that UAVs are successfully operating in Ryazhenoye, near Taganrog.
Video analysis shows explosions taking place.
Два майора (18:17 UTC) reports that the acting governor of Rostov Oblast reported an air defense alert and that a fire in a private home in Ryazhenoe was caused by drone debris.
Assessment: This FURTHER SUPPORTS the REPORT of a POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKINSIDE RUSSIAN TERRITORY. The PROXIMITY TO TAGANROG is SIGNIFICANT, as it is a MAJOR PORT CITY and INDUSTRIAL CENTER.
ZELENSKYY REPORTS ON DOBROPILLIA ATTACK, AIR DEFENSE NEEDS, DIPLOMACY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Zelenskiy / Official, 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦, Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА, and КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) (18:10, 18:11, 18:18, 18:21 UTC) provide video of Zelenskyy reporting on the Dobropillia attack, emphasizing the "combined" nature of the strike (missiles and "Shahed" drones) and the targeting of civilian areas (residential buildings, shopping center, shops). Reports 11 dead, 50 injured (including 7 children), with one rescuer killed in a repeat strike. Also mentions attacks in Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions (FPV drone strikes on civilians in Kherson).
Zelenskyy mentions meetings with British teams, preparations for a meeting in Saudi Arabia, and the need for air defense (PPO) and investment in Ukraine's defense industry.
РБК-Україна (18:32 UTC) reports Zelenskyy is awaiting a report from Umerov on new military aid packages from partners, emphasizing PPO and defense industry investment as key priorities.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (18:31 UTC) Warned of KAB launches in the Sumy region.
* Assessment: This PROVIDES A COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW of RECENT RUSSIAN ATTACKS, UKRAINIAN CASUALTIES, and UKRAINIAN DIPLOMATIC AND MILITARY PRIORITIES. The REPEATED EMPHASIS on AIR DEFENSE (PPO) highlights the CRITICAL SHORTAGE and the URGENT NEED for IMMEDIATE ASSISTANCE. The CONFIRMATION OF ATTACKS in MULTIPLE REGIONS underscores the WIDESPREAD NATURE of the RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE EFFORT.
Colonelcassad (18:35 UTC) posts a series of photos claiming to show dead Ukrainian soldiers in Pogrebki and Staraya Sorochina.
Image Analysis confirms that the images show corpses.
Assessment: These photos, WHILE POTENTIALLY DISTURBING, PROVIDE VISUAL EVIDENCE of UKRAINIAN CASUALTIES in the KURSK REGION. The SPECIFIC LOCATION CLAIMSREQUIRE VERIFICATION.
OTHER REPORTS:
Два майора (18:08 UTC) Reports on the inefficiency of old military charging equipment. COVERED PREVIOUSLY.
Colonelcassad (18:08 UTC) Reports on the death of General-Colonel Alexander Miroshnichenko. NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to the MILITARY SITUATION IN UKRAINE.
Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (18:09 UTC) Reports on Ukrainian soldiers in Guev and Lebedev, reinforcing previous reports. COVERED PREVIOUSLY.
Alex Parker Returns (18:33 UTC) claims Telegram will not be blocked in Russia. NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT.
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (18:21 UTC) claims a Russian received a life sentence for killing two Ukrainian soldiers in Germany. NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT.
Старше Эдды (18:21 UTC) reports the US will cease participating in NATO exercises after 2025. NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to the MILITARY SITUATION IN UKRAINE.
ASTRA (18:22 UTC) Reports on the arson of the FSB building. NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to the MILITARY SITUATION IN UKRAINE.
РБК-Україна (18:25 UTC) reports on Romania's president. NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to the MILITARY SITUATION IN UKRAINE.
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (18:26 UTC) Shows a video of human remains. COVERED PREVIOUSLY.
Оперативний ЗСУ (18:27 UTC) Claims that Ukrainian drones met in Rostov. COVERED PREVIOUSLY.
Воин DV (18:35 UTC) Lists world reports. MOSTLY COVERED PREVIOUSLY.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF DESTROYING TWO KEY BRIDGES near SUDZHA, further ISOLATING UKRAINIAN FORCES and SEVERELY DISRUPTING LOGISTICS. URGENT VERIFICATION REQUIRED.
CONFLICTING CLAIMS IN SUDZHA, KURSK OBLAST. REMAINS A CRITICAL UNCERTAINTY.
RUSSIAN CLAIM OF CAPTURING KONSTANTINOPOL. REMAINS A CRITICAL UNCERTAINTY.
POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK in ROSTOV OBLAST, RUSSIA. REQUIRES VERIFICATION, but STRONG EVIDENCE SUGGESTS THIS OCCURRED.
HIGH PRIORITY:
CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ATTACK ON DOBROPILLIA, resulting in SIGNIFICANT CIVILIAN CASUALTIES.
AIR RAID ALERTS in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST, indicating CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR AND DRONE ACTIVITY.
ZELENSKYY'S EMPHASIS ON AIR DEFENSE (PPO) and DEFENSE INDUSTRY INVESTMENT highlights CRITICAL UKRAINIAN PRIORITIES.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
CLAIMED PHOTOS OF UKRAINIAN CASUALTIES in the KURSK REGION.
CONTINUED RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF ADVANCES and INTENSE FIGHTING in the KURSK REGION. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
CONTINUED REPORTS of UKRAINIAN SBU DRONE OPERATIONS targeting RUSSIAN EQUIPMENT AND PERSONNEL.
RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF DESTROYING UKRAINIAN FORCES near MALA LOKNYA. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
Updated Recommendations
ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT, WITH THE FOLLOWING MODIFICATIONS AND ADDITIONS:
VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF DESTROYING BRIDGES NEAR SUDZHA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Deploy all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, human intelligence, signal intelligence) to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the RUSSIAN CLAIMS of DESTROYING TWO BRIDGES near SUDZHA.
Assess the impact on UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS if the claims are CONFIRMED. This includes:
Identifying alternative supply routes, if any.
Estimating the time required to repair or bypass the destroyed bridges.
Assessing the ability of Ukrainian forces in the area to SUSTAIN OPERATIONS without access to these bridges.
Develop contingency plans for PROVIDING ALTERNATIVE SUPPORT to UKRAINIAN FORCES in SUDZHA, including AIRDROPS, REPOSITIONING OF SUPPLY DEPOTS, or REDIRECTION OF CONVOYS.
CONTINUE TO PRIORITIZE AIR DEFENSE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
Maintain HIGH ALERT status for ALL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS across UKRAINE, particularly in BORDER REGIONS, near CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, and in areas under ACTIVE THREAT (e.g., ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST).
Deploy additional air defense assets if available, prioritizing the PROTECTION OF POPULATION CENTERS and KEY MILITARY INSTALLATIONS.
Focus on intercepting Russian drones and missiles.
Urgently seek additional air defense systems and ammunition from ALLIED NATIONS.
ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK IN ROSTOV OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Gather intelligence to CONFIRM THE DETAILS of the REPORTED DRONE ATTACK and DAMAGE in ROSTOV OBLAST.
Assess the implications of a CONFIRMED UKRAINIAN STRIKE INSIDE RUSSIAN TERRITORY. This includes:
Potential for Russian escalation.
Need for increased vigilance along the BORDER.
Potential impact on civilian populations.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND COUNTER RUSSIAN INFORMATION OPERATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
Be aware of conflicting claims and PROPAGANDA EFFORTS by BOTH SIDES.
Prioritize verified information from RELIABLE SOURCES.
Disseminate accurate information to UKRAINIAN FORCES and the PUBLIC.
Counter disinformation and FALSE NARRATIVES.
MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND FLUID. The CLAIMED DESTRUCTION OF KEY BRIDGES near SUDZHA, if confirmed, represents a MAJOR SETBACK for UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE EFFORTS. The POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK INSIDE RUSSIAINCREASES THE RISK OF ESCALATION. RAPID INFORMATION GATHERING, ACCURATE ANALYSIS, AND DECISIVE ACTION are ESSENTIAL.
Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:
The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.66
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.62
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.51
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.99
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.87
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.65
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.3
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.25
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.78
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.75
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.68
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.68
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.74
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
The restrictions are related to weather conditions affecting air traffic control.: 0.02
The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
Intense fighting continues in the area of Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.44
Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
A Ukrainian drone was used in an attempt to down a Russian drone: 0.6
A Ukranian BMC Kirpi was captured.: 0.4
Guided Aerial Bomb launch on Kharkiv.: 0.8
40 people were injured, and 11 were killed by an attack on Dobropillia.: 0.85
Telegram was blocked in Dagestan and Chechnya.: 0.7
Netherlands is planning to invest in Ukraine.: 0.6
A bridge between Myropillia and Hornal may have been destroyed.: 0.4
Russian forces almost liberated Novenkoye, and are approaching Basovka.: 0.5
Europe is searching for a Starlink alternative.: 0.6
A Russian Iskander missile struck a US HIMARS transport loading vehicle.: 0.3
Reports of the logistical situation in the Kursk region is very bad.: 0.9
Sudzha: 0.8
Reports of widespread Russian drone and missile strikes continue, confirmed.: 0.9
CLAIMED UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACKS near POKROVSK and TORETSK, potentially SLOWING DOWN the RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE. REQUIRES VERIFICATION. : 0.7
Confirmed Russian airstrike on claimed Ukrainian command post in Huliaipole.: 0.95
POTENTIAL HALT OF US MILITARY AID (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, NEEDS VERIFICATION):* POTENTIALLY CRITICAL IMPACT on UKRAINIAN MILITARY CAPABILITIES. : 0.99
*UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS FORCIBLY DEPLOYED AFTER REFUSING TO FIGHT (HIGH PRIORITY).**: 0.8
*New type of Ukrainian drone reported, controlled by fiber-optic cable.: 0.9
*New Russian drone "Avatar" reported.: 0.7
*Reports of heavy Russian casualties (Cemetery report).: 0.8
*German plant in Ukraine.: 0.6
*Reports on a Russian missile strike on the 168th reserve battalion.: 0.6
*Ukrainian forces are reporting progress in Toretsk.: 0.8
