Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 8, 2025, 14:37 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (14:07 UTC - 14:37 UTC)

1. CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Рыбарь (14:28 UTC): Provides a detailed report claiming significant Russian advances in the Kursk region, both within Russian territory (Sudzha area) and expanding into Sumy Oblast, Ukraine. Key claims:

     • Near-complete capture of NOVENKOYE.
     • Advance towards BASOVKA (threatens the YUNAKOVKA-SUDZHA supply route).
     • Desantniki pushed the enemy from the area in LEBEDEVKA.
     • VIKTOROVKA officially liberated.
     • Russian forces pushed the Ukrainian forces from between POGREBKI and KHITROVSKIY YAR.
     • RUSSKOYE PORECHNOYE: Advancement by the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment.
     • KURILOVKA: Progress in KRINICHNIY, SOKOL'NIY YAR, and KHOLODNIY YAR.
     • Unsuccessful rotation by the Ukrainian forces (95th brigade replaced by TRO).
     • WARNING: Premature to speak of encirclement.

   • Colonelcassad (14:23 UTC): Reports Ukrainian forces fleeing CHERKASSKOYE PORECHNOYE and KOSITSA, with Russian forces entering and conducting clearing operations.

   • Два майора (14:24 UTC): Shows video and describes FAB-3000 and FAB-500 strikes in the GUEVO area (Kursk Oblast), targeting Ukrainian forces.

   • Дневник Десантника (14:14 UTC): Claims Russian forces destroyed Ukrainian withdrawal routes and bridges near GUEVO (Kursk Oblast).

   • Assessment: These reports, coming from MULTIPLE PRO-RUSSIAN SOURCES, STRONGLY SUGGEST a MAJOR RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE is UNDERWAY AND ACHIEVING SUCCESS in the KURSK/SUMY BORDER REGION. The CONSISTENCY across different sources, despite their KNOWN BIAS, INCREASES THE CREDIBILITY of the overall claim of SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCES. The REPORTED CAPTURE of multiple settlements and the TARGETING OF KEY LOGISTICAL ROUTES indicate a DETERIORATING SITUATION for UKRAINIAN FORCES. The THREAT OF ENCIRCLEMENT, while NOT YET IMMINENT, is INCREASING RAPIDLY. URGENT VERIFICATION is needed, but the IMPLICATIONS ARE SEVERE.

2. UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF REPORT (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (14:33 UTC): Provides an operational update (as of 16:00 local time, 14:00 UTC). Key points:

     • 101 combat engagements since the start of the day.
     • Continued shelling of border settlements in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts.
     • KHARKIV DIRECTION: 3 attacks repelled near VOVCHANSK and PETRO-IVANIVKA; 2 ongoing; airstrikes near DOVZHYK.
     • KUPYANSK DIRECTION: 7 attacks near STEPOVA NOVOSELIVKA, NOVA KRUGLYAKIVKA, and ZAGRIZOVE; 2 ongoing.
     • LYMAN DIRECTION: 14 attacks near NOVOMIKHAYLIVKA, NOVE, MIRNE, and ZELENA DOLINA; 8 ongoing.
     • KRAMATORSK DIRECTION: 2 attacks repelled near CHASIV YAR and BILA HORA.
     • TORETSK DIRECTION: 15 attacks near DRUZHBA and TORETSK.
     • POKROVSK DIRECTION: 14 attempts to dislodge Ukrainian forces; 12 repelled, 2 ongoing; airstrike near LEONTOVICHI.
     • NOVOPAVLIVKA DIRECTION: 5 attacks near KOSTYANTYNOPIL and BURLATSKE; 2 ongoing.
     • GULYAYPOLE DIRECTION: 2 attacks towards STOROZHOVE and CHARIVNE; airstrikes on GULYAYPOLE, VOSKRESENTSY, NOVOPIL, and ZALIZNYCHNE.
     • ORIKHIV DIRECTION: 4 attacks repelled near PYATYKHATKY, STEPOVE, and SHCHERBAKY.
     • PRIDNIPROVYA DIRECTION: Airstrike on KOZATSKE; missile strikes (likely Iskander-M) on NOVOSELIVKA and BILA KRINITSIA.
     • KURSK OBLAST: 12 attacks repelled, and 14 still in progress. 23 airstrikes, 33 guided aerial bombs and 362 artillery shellings.
     • SIVERSK DIRECTION: No offensive actions by the enemy.

   • Assessment: This report CONFIRMS INTENSE FIGHTING across MULTIPLE FRONTS. The HIGH NUMBER OF ENGAGEMENTS (101) indicates a SIGNIFICANT LEVEL OF COMBAT ACTIVITY. The report PARTIALLY CORROBORATES RUSSIAN CLAIMS of ADVANCES in the KURSK REGION, although it DOES NOT ACKNOWLEDGE the LOSS OF ANY SETTLEMENTS. The DETAILED LISTING OF ATTACKS AND LOCATIONS provides VALUABLE TACTICAL INFORMATION. The REPORTED AIRSTRIKES AND MISSILE STRIKES highlight the CONTINUED THREAT to UKRAINIAN FORCES and CIVILIAN AREAS.

3. POLAND ANNOUNCES MILITARY TRAINING FOR ALL MEN (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, PRO-RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (14:24 UTC): Reports that Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced a program for "large-scale military training for every adult man in Poland," aiming to increase the army size to 500,000 (including reservists).

   • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT in the REGIONAL SECURITY LANDSCAPE. While the source is PRO-RUSSIAN and may EXAGGERATE THE THREAT, the ANNOUNCEMENT ITSELF indicates INCREASED CONCERN in POLAND about POTENTIAL RUSSIAN AGGRESSION. This MAJOR INCREASE in MILITARY PREPAREDNESS could ALTER THE BALANCE OF POWER in the region.

4. REPUBLICANS URGE TRUMP TO RESTORE AID AND INTELLIGENCE ACCESS TO UKRAINE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (14:30 UTC): Reports that Republicans are warning Trump that stopping the flow of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine could have a devastating impact on its combat capability and undermine leverage against Russia.

   • Assessment: This INDICATES INTERNAL DEBATE within the US REPUBLICAN PARTY about the LEVEL OF SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE. The WARNING about the IMPACT ON UKRAINIAN COMBAT CAPABILITY is CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS ASSESSMENTS. This POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT could INFLUENCE FUTURE US POLICY towards UKRAINE.

5. OTHER REPORTS OF NOTE:

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (14:12, 14:20 UTC): Reports air alerts in Kharkiv, Sumy, and Sumy Oblast due to enemy UAV activity.

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (14:13 UTC): Reports Zelensky will visit Saudi Arabia next week.

   • РБК-Україна (14:14 UTC): Reports Australia supports Britain's plan for a "coalition of the willing" for Ukraine.

   • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (14:32 UTC): Reports that 6 additional cogeneration units will be delivered to the Zaporozhye region.

   • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (14:33 UTC): Shows a picture of a military drone.

   • Басурин о главном (14:36 UTC): Shows Russian helicopters returning from a mission.

   • Assessment: These reports provide ADDITIONAL CONTEXT but do NOT SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER the OVERALL SITUATION ASSESSMENT.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • CONTINUED AND INTENSIFIED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE IN THE KURSK/SUMY BORDER REGION. MULTIPLE REPORTS indicate SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCES and a DETERIORATING SITUATION for UKRAINIAN FORCES. The THREAT OF ENCIRCLEMENT, while NOT YET IMMINENT, is INCREASING RAPIDLY.

• RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF BRIDGE DESTRUCTION (HIGH PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):*

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • INTENSE FIGHTING ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS, as confirmed by the Ukrainian General Staff report.
  • CONTINUED THREAT OF RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES AND MISSILE STRIKES.
  • ONGOING AIR ALERTS in Kharkiv and Sumy regions due to UAV activity.

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

  • POLAND'S ANNOUNCEMENT OF MILITARY TRAINING FOR ALL MEN, indicating INCREASED REGIONAL TENSIONS.
  • REPUBLICANS URGING TRUMP TO RESTORE AID AND INTELLIGENCE ACCESS TO UKRAINE, highlighting INTERNAL US POLITICAL DEBATE.
  • CONTINUED DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS, with Zelensky's planned visit to Saudi Arabia and Australia's support for a "coalition of the willing."

• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. ADDRESS THE SITUATION IN THE KURSK/SUMY BORDER REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • URGENTLY DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS (excluding Maxar satellite imagery) to VERIFY THE EXTENT of the RUSSIAN ADVANCES and the STATUS OF UKRAINIAN FORCES. PRIORITIZE gathering information on:
     • The EXACT LOCATION of RUSSIAN FORCES.
     • The STATUS of the YUNAKOVKA-SUDZHA ROAD and OTHER KEY SUPPLY ROUTES.
     • The STRENGTH AND MORALE of UKRAINIAN FORCES in the AFFECTED AREA.
     • The PRESENCE OF ANY RUSSIAN RESERVES that could be COMMITTED TO THE OFFENSIVE.
   • IMMEDIATELY REINFORCE UKRAINIAN DEFENSES in the REGION, if possible. PRIORITIZE the DEFENSE of KEY TERRAIN FEATURES and TRANSPORTATION ROUTES.
   • DEVELOP AND IMPLEMENT CONTINGENCY PLANS for a POSSIBLE WITHDRAWAL of UKRAINIAN FORCES from the MOST VULNERABLE POSITIONS. PRIORITIZE the SAFETY OF PERSONNEL and the PRESERVATION OF COMBAT POWER.
   • INCREASE ARTILLERY AND AIR STRIKES (where possible) on ADVANCING RUSSIAN FORCES and KNOWN CONCENTRATION AREAS.
   • IMPLEMENT MEASURES to COUNTER RUSSIAN ELECTRONIC WARFARE and DRONE ACTIVITY.
   • PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL RUSSIAN AIRBORNE OR AMPHIBIOUS OPERATIONS in the REGION.

2. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT STATUS FOR AIR DEFENSES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • Expect continued Russian missile and drone attacks.
   • Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure and military facilities.
   • Specifically address the threat of guided aerial bombs.

3. ADDRESS THE ENERGY CRISIS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • Continue efforts to REPAIR DAMAGED INFRASTRUCTURE.
   • Implement measures to CONSERVE ENERGY.
   • Welcome the additional cogenerational units for the Zaporozhye region.

4. MONITOR THE POLITICAL SITUATION IN THE US (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • Track the debate within the REPUBLICAN PARTY on SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE.
   • Assess the potential impact of US POLICY CHANGES on UKRAINIAN MILITARY CAPABILITIES.

5. CONTINUE DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • Support Zelensky's planned visit to Saudi Arabia.
   • Explore opportunities for INCREASED INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT for UKRAINE.

The situation in the KURSK/SUMY BORDER REGION has DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY, with MULTIPLE REPORTS indicating MAJOR RUSSIAN ADVANCES. The THREAT OF ENCIRCLEMENT of UKRAINIAN FORCES is INCREASING. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is required to ADDRESS THIS CRITICAL SITUATION. The CONTINUED FIGHTING ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS and the ONGOING THREAT OF RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES further COMPLICATE THE CHALLENGES facing UKRAINE.

Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:

• The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.66
• Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.62
• The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
• The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
• The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
• The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.02
• Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.98
• Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.87
• Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
• Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.65
• Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
• 35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
• Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
• Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
• Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.3
• Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.25
• Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.78
• Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
• Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.65
• There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.8
• Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
• Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
• Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
• Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
• The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
• Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
• There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
• Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.8
• There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
• There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
• Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
• There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
• Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
• Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
• Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.59
• There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.68
• Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
• A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
• A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
• A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
• Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
• Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
• Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
• There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
• Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
• There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
• Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
• There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
• A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
• Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
• Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.68
• Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
• Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
• Temporary restrictions were implemented and lifted at Volgograd Airport.: 0.65
• Temporary restrictions are implemented in the airports of Vladikavkaz and Grozny due to heightened security concerns.: 0.6
• The temporary restrictions are due to ongoing military exercises or drills in the region.: 0.1
• The restrictions are related to weather conditions affecting air traffic control.: 0.02
• The restrictions are a precautionary measure due to reported drone activity near the airports.: 0.15
• The restrictions are part of a planned maintenance schedule for airport infrastructure.: 0.01
• Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the western part of Chasiv Yar, controlling no more than 15% of the city.: 0.5
• A Russian drone strike destroyed a command post of the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Sumy Oblast, killing a senior officer.: 0.6
• The main supply route for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region (Yunakivka-Sudzha road) is under intense Russian fire and may be blocked.: 0.83
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to effectively target Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region.: 0.84
• US space intelligence has cut off Ukraine's access to satellite imagery.: 0.8
• The Washington Post is accurately reporting the US action.: 0.6
• The report is disinformation intended to sow discord between the US and Ukraine.: 0.01
• Intense fighting continues in the area of ​​Konstantinopol, with the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian forces.: 0.7
• The Russian "Center" grouping of forces claims to have killed "up to 600" Ukrainian soldiers in the past 24 hours: 0.1.
• The video is primarily propaganda aimed at boosting Russian morale and misrepresenting the situation on the ground: 0.4
• The mentioned locations are indeed areas of active conflict and potential Russian focus.: 0.16
• Russian forces are making significant advances in the specified areas of the "Center" grouping.: 0.12
• Ukrainian units mentioned are actively engaged in the described areas, but the casualty and equipment loss claims are likely exaggerated.: 0.08
• The specific equipment mentioned (BTR-4, M113) are present and operational in the conflict zone.: 0.04.
• Russian forces captured Nikolaevka and Malaya Loknya: 0.59
• Russian forces have liberated 3 settlements.: 0.5
• Ukrainian forces are planning a breakthrough in the area of Sudzha.: 0.2
• On March 3, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian command post.: 0.3
• Four people were injured in an airstrike in Konstantinovka.: 0.63
• Ukrainian forces successfully ambushed and eliminated a large group of Russian saboteurs attempting to use gas pipeline infrastructure for infiltration.: 0.93
• Russian forces are attempting to replicate tactics used in Avdiivka to infiltrate Ukrainian-controlled territory using underground infrastructure.: 0.85
• Russian forces are experiencing morale issues and feeling abandoned by their command.: 0.5
• The Ukrainian military is effectively using intelligence to anticipate and counter Russian sabotage operations.: 0.9
• One person was killed and 4 were injured in the Kherson region due to Russian attacks.: 0.6
• Russian forces are attacking Sudzha from multiple directions.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the Yunakovka corridor from Sudzha.: 0.6
• Russian forces are blocking a secondary supply route to Sudzha and advancing towards the main route.: 0.65
• Ukrainian forces near Kurilovka have their supplies cut due to the Russian fire control of their supply route.: 0.6
• 40 people were injured in an attack in Dobropillia.: 0.7
• Russian forces are using fiber-optic controlled drones to attack targets.: 0.7
• Guided aerial bombs (KAB) were used on Sumy and the north of Kharkiv.: 0.7
• Sudzha and surrounding settlements are under intense assault by multiple Russian units, including special forces and marines.: 0.7
• Ukrainian forces are experiencing significant logistical challenges, with potential encirclement looming.: 0.6
• Russian air and artillery activity is high, particularly targeting Ukrainian supply routes and troop concentrations.: 0.8
• Russian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.3
• Ukrainian forces successfully counteracted gas-pipeline infiltration.: 0.9
• Russian forces are making advances from Viktorovka and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade, previously involved in the offensive, has been withdrawn for recovery, indicating heavy losses.: 0.7
• Russian forces are claiming the capture of several settlements, including Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolaevka.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region, with reports of reduced artillery fire and potential ammunition shortages.: 0.7
• There's potential for a Ukrainian counterattack from Sumy Oblast to relieve encircled forces.: 0.5
• A Russian meat processing plant in Bogodukhov, Kharkov, used to supply the Ukrainian forces, was destroyed.: 0.4
• A bridge in the Guev region was destroyed, further cutting off the logistics of the Ukrainian forces.: 0.58
• An FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Furia" drone.: 0.4
• Russian forces have shifted to a large-scale offensive in the Kursk region.: 0.8
• All units are involved, including the "AKHMAT" special forces, 30th motorized rifle regiment, 11th airborne assault brigade, "VETERANS" and "VOSTOK" brigades, and marine brigades.: 0.6
• Ukrainian forces received the order to retreat to Sudzha, maintaining the corridor to Yunakovka.: 0.5
• The goal of the Russian group is to maintain fire control on the Yunakovka-Sudzha road and block reinforcements.: 0.7
• Russian troops identified ammunition depots and FPV drones of the Ukrainian forces, using drones, artillery, and FAB-500 bombs.: 0.7
• The northern troop group is advancing.: 0.6
• 180 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours in various locations in the Kursk region.: 0.4
• 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers are at risk of encirclement.: 0.8
• Only one Ukrainian soldier surrendered in the last 24 hours.: 0.3
• Pre-planned targeting of Ukrainian communication nodes in Sudzha.: 0.85
• Russian forces are making advances in the Zaporozhye region: 0.44
• Ballistic missile launch detected from the East.: 0.7
• Rocket threat in Mykolaiv Oblast.: 0.8
• A Ukrainian drone was used in an attempt to down a Russian drone: 0.6
• A Ukranian BMC Kirpi was captured.: 0.4
• Guided Aerial Bomb launch on Kharkiv.: 0.8
• 40 people were injured, and 11 were killed by an attack on Dobropillia.: 0.85
• Telegram was blocked in Dagestan and Chechnya.: 0.7
• Netherlands is planning to invest in Ukraine.: 0.6
• A bridge between Myropillia and Hornal may have been destroyed.: 0.4
• Russian forces almost liberated Novenkoye, and are approaching Basovka.: 0.5
• Russian forces officially liberated Viktorovka.: 0.8
• Ukrainian forces are fleeing Cherkasskoye Porechnoye and Kositsa.: 0.6
• Poland announced military training for all men.: 0.3
• Republicans are calling on Trump to restore aid to Ukraine.: 0.4