Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 8, 2025, 09:37 UTC

Key Changes and Developments (09:07 UTC - 09:37 UTC)

1. KURSK OBLAST: RUSSIAN FORCES CLAIM LIBERATION OF THREE SETTLEMENTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (09:09 UTC, 09:36 UTC), Colonelcassad (09:14 UTC, 09:33 UTC), Alex Parker Returns (09:15 UTC), Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (09:31 UTC): Russian MoD officially confirms the liberation of Viktorovka, Nikolaevka, and Staraya Sorochina in Kursk Oblast. Claims significant Ukrainian losses. ТАСС reports this advance leads towards the encirclement of Malaya Loknya. Alex Parker Returns claims this started the collapse of the Ukrainian northern flank near Sudzha. Colonelcassad provides a detailed (and likely inflated) list of claimed Ukrainian losses in the Kursk direction over the entire conflict.
   • Assessment: CONFIRMS a SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCE in KURSK OBLAST. This FURTHER DETERIORATES the UKRAINIAN POSITION in the AREA and INCREASES THE THREAT OF ENCIRCLEMENT of REMAINING UKRAINIAN FORCES. The CLAIMED UKRAINIAN LOSSES are LIKELY EXAGGERATED, but the TERRITORIAL GAINS are CONFIRMED. The REPORTED MOVEMENT TOWARDS MALAYA LOKNYA is CRITICAL and REQUIRES URGENT MONITORING.

2. SUDZHA: RUSSIAN FORCES REPORTEDLY ENGAGED IN BATTLE (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Два майора (09:06 UTC, 09:11 UTC, 09:16 UTC, 09:21 UTC): Claims a battle is underway in Sudzha, with Russian forces (including Group Aida (Spetsnaz "Akhmat"), 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment, 11th Separate Guards Air Assault Brigade, "Veterans" detachment, and "Vostok" battalion) using underground communications for a surprise attack. Два майора later (09:21 UTC) emphasizes the heroism of the attacking forces.

• ДНЕВНИК МРАКОБОРЦЕВ (09:20 UTC): Reports Spetsnaz "Akhmat", "Veterans" brigade, "Vostok" brigade, 11th Airborne, and 30th Motorized Rifle are all engaged in offensive actions.
  • Assessment: The RUSSIAN MoD HAS NOT YET CONFIRMED the CAPTURE OF SUDZHA itself. Два майора's reports suggest ONGOING COMBAT within SUDZHA, with RUSSIAN FORCES ATTEMPTING TO SEIZE CONTROL. The USE OF UNDERGROUND COMMUNICATIONS is a NOTEWORTHY TACTIC. VERIFICATION of the SITUATION IN SUDZHA is URGENT. Colonelcassad (09:00 UTC) directly contradicts earlier reports, stating that Sudzha remains under Ukrainian control, there is no closed encirclement, and the Sudzha-Yunakivka road has not been physically cut.

3. KURSK OBLAST: UKRAINIAN FORCES REPORTEDLY REPELLING ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

• ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 (09:24 UTC): Reports that Ukrainian forces repelled four attacks near Vovchansk and Krasne Pershe. Claims to be destroying the enemy's manpower and equipment.
  • Assessment: Confirms the ongoing battle.

4. KURSK OBLAST: UKRAINIAN FORCES REPORTEDLY THREATENED WITH ENCIRCLEMENT (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (09:08 UTC) quoting The Telegraph: Reports a 10,000-strong Ukrainian force in Kursk Oblast is threatened with encirclement due to a narrow corridor (1km long, 500m wide) and the alleged suspension of US intelligence sharing. Ukrainian forces are reportedly considering withdrawal to avoid losses.
     • Assessment: This report REINFORCES the THREAT OF ENCIRCLEMENT facing UKRAINIAN FORCES in KURSK OBLAST. The CLAIM OF US INTELLIGENCE SUSPENSION remains UNCORROBORATED, but SIGNIFICANT. The REPORTED CONSIDERATION OF WITHDRAWAL indicates the SEVERITY of the SITUATION.

5. IVANO-FRANKIVSK AIRSTRIKES (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (09:08 UTC): Claims Russian forces struck the area of an airfield in Ivano-Frankivsk, allegedly targeting F-16s and foreign mercenaries.
     • Assessment: This is an UNCORROBORATED CLAIM from a RUSSIAN SOURCE. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.

6. CHERNIHIV OBLAST AIR RAID ALERT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

• Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (08:58 UTC): Announced a missile threat for Chernihiv Oblast. * Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (09:33 UTC): Reports an enemy reconnaissance UAV in Chernihiv Oblast, warning of possible air defense activity.
• Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (09:35 UTC): Reports a threat. * Assessment: Indicates an INCREASED THREAT of AIR ATTACK and RECONNAISSANCE ACTIVITY in CHERNIHIV OBLAST.

7. SUMY OBLAST AIR RAID ALERT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

• Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (09:17 UTC): Announces an air raid alert for Sumy, with enemy drones and possible air defense.
  • Assessment: This is a situation that needs attention.

8. DRONE ATTACKS (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

• Воин DV (09:00 UTC): Reports that the 69th brigade destroyed an enemy drone.
  • Assessment: The video provides proof of the claim.
• БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (09:13 UTC): Reports that Ukrainian forces shot down an FPV drone.
  • Assessment: The video supports the claim.

9. OTHER:

• STERNENKO (08:55 UTC): Reports that Trump is considering withdrawing troops from Germany.
  • Assessment: No strategic impact.
• ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (08:59 UTC): Reports on protests against Fico in Slovakia.
  • Assessment: No strategic impact.
• Оперативний ЗСУ (09:00 UTC): Reports that two people have surrendered.
  • Assessment: The shared video supports the claim.
• РБК-Україна (09:29 UTC): Reports that Russian attacks increased after Trump's inauguration, citing ISW.
• ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (09:29 UTC): Reports that the Netherlands are allocating €700 million for drones.
  • Assessment: This is a very important development that will have a strategic impact.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE in KURSK OBLAST, with LIBERATION OF THREE SETTLEMENTS (Viktorovka, Nikolaevka, Staraya Sorochina). INCREASED THREAT OF ENCIRCLEMENT of UKRAINIAN FORCES.
  • REPORTED BATTLE UNDERWAY IN SUDZHA, with RUSSIAN FORCES ATTEMPTING TO SEIZE CONTROL. UNCLEAR SITUATION, REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION.
  • CLAIMED SUSPENSION OF ALL US MILITARY AID TO UKRAINE remains UNCORROBORATED, but EXTREMELY SIGNIFICANT.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • CONTINUED INTENSE FIGHTING in MULTIPLE DIRECTIONS, including POKROVSK (KRASNOARMEYSK), TORETSK, and KURSK.
  • UKRAINIAN FORCES IN KURSK REGION are REPORTEDLY CONSIDERING WITHDRAWAL due to THREAT OF ENCIRCLEMENT.
  • IMMINENT THREAT of AIR STRIKES in EASTERN UKRAINE.
  • UNCORROBORATED CLAIM of RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES in IVANO-FRANKIVSK, targeting ALLEGED F-16S AND FOREIGN MERCENARIES.
  • CONFIRMED AIR RAID ALERTS in CHERNIHIV and SUMY OBLASTS.
  • REPORTED UKRAINIAN USV ATTACK on a RUSSIAN GAS EXTRACTION FACILITY in the BLACK SEA REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION.
  • MULTIPLE DRONE ATTACKS targeting 8 REGIONS OF UKRAINE.

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

• Reports that drone attacks increased after Trump's inauguration. * CONFIRMED CONTINUED UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS targeting RUSSIAN TERRITORY. * Reports that the Netherlands are allocating €700 million for drones. * All other previously identified medium-priority issues remain relevant.

• LOW PRIORITY:

  • Reports that Trump is considering withdrawing troops from Germany.
  • All other previously identified low-priority issues remain relevant.

Updated Recommendations

1. ADDRESS THE SITUATION IN KURSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • URGENTLY VERIFY the SITUATION IN SUDZHA. Determine whether RUSSIAN FORCES HAVE FULL CONTROL or if FIGHTING CONTINUES.
   • ASSESS THE RISK OF ENCIRCLEMENT of UKRAINIAN FORCES in KURSK OBLAST.
   • DEVELOP AND IMPLEMENT CONTINGENCY PLANS for a POTENTIAL WITHDRAWAL of UKRAINIAN FORCES from KURSK OBLAST, if necessary. PRIORITIZE THE SAFETY OF PERSONNEL and the PRESERVATION OF EQUIPMENT.
   • REINFORCE DEFENSIVE POSITIONS to PREVENT FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCES.
   • INCREASE INTELLIGENCE GATHERING in KURSK OBLAST to MONITOR RUSSIAN MOVEMENTS and IDENTIFY POTENTIAL TARGETS.

2. VERIFY REPORTED AIRSTRIKES IN IVANO-FRANKIVSK (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • USE ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the REPORTED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES in IVANO-FRANKIVSK.
   • DETERMINE whether F-16S OR FOREIGN MERCENARIES were PRESENT at the TARGETED LOCATION.
   • ASSESS THE EXTENT OF DAMAGE, if any.

3. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS ACTIONS.
   • PRIORITIZE DEFENSE against AIR STRIKES in CHERNIHIV and SUMY OBLASTS.
   • DEPLOY ADDITIONAL AIR DEFENSE ASSETS to THREATENED AREAS, if possible.

4. CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND RESPOND TO FIGHTING IN ALL ACTIVE DIRECTIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS ACTIONS.

5. VERIFY AND RESPOND TO BLACK SEA ATTACK (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS ACTIONS.

6. ADDRESS THE DOBROPILLIA "DOUBLE-TAP" STRIKE (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS ACTIONS.

7. URGENTLY VERIFY CLAIMED SUSPENSION OF ALL US MILITARY AID (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS ACTIONS.

The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL and DYNAMIC. The CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN KURSK OBLAST, the REPORTED BATTLE IN SUDZHA, and the POTENTIAL ENCIRCLEMENT OF UKRAINIAN FORCES represent a MAJOR SETBACK and REQUIRE IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION. The CONTINUED THREAT OF AIR ATTACKS, the UNCORROBORATED CLAIM OF AIRSTRIKES IN IVANO-FRANKIVSK, and the ONGOING FIGHTING ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS create a HIGHLY CHALLENGING AND DANGEROUS ENVIRONMENT. URGENT VERIFICATION OF KEY INFORMATION, RAPID DECISION-MAKING, and EFFECTIVE RESOURCE ALLOCATION are ESSENTIAL to MITIGATE THE IMPACT OF RUSSIAN ADVANCES and PREVENT FURTHER DETERIORATION OF THE UKRAINIAN POSITION.