Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 8, 2025, 00:37 UTC
Changes and New Information (00:07 UTC - 00:37 UTC)
CONFIRMED DAMAGE TO RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS IN ODESA (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
РБК-Україна (00:10 UTC) provides a video report from Odesa Mayor Trukhanov, confirming damage to industrial and service sector facilities, AS WELL AS RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS, from the Russian attack. Cleanup efforts are underway.
Assessment: This FURTHER CONFIRMS the EXTENT OF DAMAGE from the RUSSIAN ATTACK ON ODESA, now explicitly including RESIDENTIAL AREAS. This INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF CIVILIAN CASUALTIES, although none have been reported yet. The CITY'S RESPONSE is UNDERWAY, with CLEANUP OPERATIONS and PLANS FOR DAMAGE ASSESSMENT AND COMPENSATION. This REINFORCES the PATTERN OF RUSSIAN ATTACKS on CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE.
REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN "STARAYA SOROCHINA" AND "NOVAYA SOROCHINA" (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (00:22 UTC) reports that the enemy has advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.
Assessment: This INDICATES FURTHER RUSSIAN TACTICAL GAINS. The SPECIFIC LOCATIONS of "STARAYA SOROCHINA" and "NOVAYA SOROCHINA" are UNCLEAR, but this SUGGESTS CONTINUED RUSSIAN PRESSURE on UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE LINES. URGENT VERIFICATION is needed to DETERMINE THE EXACT LOCATION AND EXTENT OF THESE ADVANCES. This HIGHLIGHTS THE DYNAMIC AND DETERIORATING SITUATION on the GROUND.
COLONELCASSAD VIDEO (PROPAGANDA, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Colonelcassad (00:23 UTC) shows video captioned "And a little more freedom and democracy, which Syria is now choking on after the fall of the regime. All this resembles the seizure of Mosul by ISIS militants, when the Iraqi army also ran away, leaving the metropolis and a huge amount of equipment." Another video is published that shows someone shooting at a person in civilian clothing.
Assessment: These messages are propaganda, intended to discredit the opponents of Russia, and lack significance in the current military context.
LOSS OF MAXAR SATELLITE IMAGERY ACCESS CONFIRMED (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Colonelcassad (00:33 UTC): Publishes a message and an image, clarifying that Maxar provided high-resolution satellite images that were used for target indication, including of Russian rear infrastructure. Trump's ban prevents sharing information with Ukraine.
Assessment: The loss of Maxar imagery SEVERELY CRIPPLES the DECISION-MAKING of UKRAINE'S MILITARY. The HIGH RESOLUTION allowed for DETAILED ANALYSIS of COMBAT SITUATIONS. This SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTS UKRAINE'S ABILITY to TRACK RUSSIAN MOVEMENTS, ASSESS DAMAGE, and PLAN OPERATIONS.
THREAT OF DRONE ATTACKS REMAINS IN NORTHEASTERN REGIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (00:35 UTC): States that the threat from drones remains.
Assessment: This reinforces the threat to Ukraine.
OTHER (LOW PRIORITY):
ТАСС (00:16 UTC): Day of indigenous peoples is planned to be established on April 30.
Assessment:NOT DIRECTLY RELATED to the MILITARY SITUATION in UKRAINE.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
CONFIRMED DAMAGE TO RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS IN ODESA, in addition to industrial and service facilities. This INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF CIVILIAN CASUALTIES.
CONFIRMED LOSS OF MAXAR SATELLITE IMAGERY ACCESS REMAINS A CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT.
CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ATTACK ON DOBROPILLIA, KILLING AT LEAST 5 AND INJURING 15, DAMAGING RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS. This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT highlighting RUSSIAN TARGETING OF CIVILIANS.
CONFIRMED RUSSIAN STRIKES ON ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE IN ODESA, continuing a PATTERN OF ATTACKS aimed at WEAKENING UKRAINE. NOW CONFIRMED as a MASSIVE DRONE ATTACK with WIDESPREAD DAMAGE.
ONGOING AND WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY ACROSS MULTIPLE REGIONS OF UKRAINE, posing a SIGNIFICANT THREAT, including to KYIV. DRONE THREAT NOW EXTENDS TO KRASNODAR KRAI, STAVROPOL KRAI IN RUSSIA. NEW REPORT of DRONE ACTIVITY in NORTHERN KHARKIV OBLAST.
CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES AND SUCCESSFUL BREACH OF UKRAINIAN DEFENSES IN THE KURSK REGION REMAIN CRITICAL.
CONFIRMED SHORTAGES OF AMMUNITION FOR UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS.
NEW AND UPDATED REPORTS:
REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN "STARAYA SOROCHINA" AND "NOVAYA SOROCHINA". REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION OF LOCATION AND EXTENT.
ALL PREVIOUS REPORTS REMAIN (WITH ADJUSTED PRIORITIES):
REPORTED UKRAINIAN MIRAGE-2000 SHOOTING DOWN RUSSIAN CRUISE MISSILE.REQUIRES VERIFICATION, BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT.
REPORTED SHAHED DRONE STRIKE NEAR VEHICLE IN ODESSA.CONFIRMS ONGOING DRONE THREAT.
Urgently determine the EXACT LOCATION of "STARAYA SOROCHINA" and "NOVAYA SOROCHINA".
Deploy reconnaissance assets to VERIFY THE REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE and ASSESS THE CURRENT FRONT LINE.
Prepare contingency plans for POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVES or DEFENSIVE MEASURES.
FIND ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF SATELLITE IMAGERY (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE/LONG-TERM ACTION):
Seek other providers of high-resolution satellite imagery.
Increase the use of drones.
MAINTAIN HIGH AIR DEFENSE READINESS, PRIORITIZE CHERKASY AND KHARKIV REGIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
Maintain the highest level of alert for ALL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS. FOCUS ON CHERKASY REGION due to CONFIRMED DRONE ACTIVITY and REPORTED EXPLOSIONS. ALSO PRIORITIZE KHARKIV OBLAST due to NEW DRONE REPORT.
Deploy additional air defense assets to the CHERKASY AND KHARKIV REGIONS if possible.
Issue immediate warnings to CIVILIAN POPULATIONS in CHERKASY AND KHARKIV REGIONS, advising them to SEEK SHELTER.
MONITOR FOR FURTHER DRONE ACTIVITY (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
Maintain constant surveillance for ADDITIONAL DRONE ACTIVITY across ALL OF UKRAINE.
Track the reported drones near CHERKASY and LUBNY, and in NORTHERN KHARKIV OBLAST.
Dispatch emergency response teams to DOBROPILLIA to ASSIST WITH SEARCH AND RESCUE OPERATIONS and PROVIDE MEDICAL CARE to the INJURED.
Assess the damage to INFRASTRUCTURE and BEGIN PLANNING FOR REPAIRS.
Document the attack as a POTENTIAL WAR CRIME and SHARE EVIDENCE with INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS.
Provide support to DISPLACED CIVILIANS.
MONITOR BELGOROD OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, VIGILANCE):
Increase surveillance on the border near Orlovka.
Prepare for potential responses to drone incursions.
ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES):
All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, prioritizing Cherkasy and Kharkiv regions.
The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND VOLATILE. The CONFIRMED DAMAGE TO RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS IN ODESA, the REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE, and the LOSS OF MAXAR IMAGERY are the MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERNS. The CONTINUED DRONE THREAT requires CONSTANT VIGILANCE. RAPID RESPONSE, CONTINUOUS MONITORING, and VERIFICATION OF CLAIMS are ESSENTIAL.
Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:
The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.56
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.62
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.9
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.85
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.62
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.4
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.3
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.25
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.55
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.5
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.7
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.45
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.68
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
Russian attacks in Dobropillia killed at least 5 and injured 15, damaging 4 multi-story buildings.: 0.9
There is drone activity in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, course southwest.: 0.7
Russian forces reportedly leveled the line of contact north and south of Chasiv Yar.: 0.65
There is a danger warning for Orlovka, Belgorod Oblast, referencing "Baba Yaga" (Ukrainian drone).: 0.7
A massive Russian drone attack on Odesa caused significant damage to various structures, including critical infrastructure.: 0.9
Damage in Odessa attack includes residential buildings.: 0.8
Enemy advanced in Staraya Sorochina and Novaya Sorochina.: 0.6
Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples Ukraine's decision-making.: 0.7
Threat of drone attacks persists for northeastern regions.: 0.7
