Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 7, 2025, 23:37 UTC
Changes and New Information (23:07 UTC - 23:37 UTC)
DRONE ACTIVITY NEAR CHERKASY (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Николаевский Ванёк (23:10 UTC) reports on the remaining Shahed drones:
5 south of Cherkasy.
3 heading towards/through Cherkasy.
5 heading towards/through Lubny.
РБК-Україна (23:31 UTC) reports explosions were heard on the outskirts of Cherkasy.
Assessment: These reports CORROBORATE EACH OTHER and CONFIRM ONGOING DRONE ACTIVITY and POTENTIAL STRIKES near CHERKASY. The MULTIPLE DRONES reported indicate a CONTINUED THREAT. The EXPLOSIONS REPORT suggests SUCCESSFUL INTERCEPTION OR IMPACT.
AIR RAID ALERT ENDED IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (23:12 UTC) reports the end of the air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Assessment: This indicates the IMMEDIATE THREAT in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST has PASSED, at least for the moment. It DOES NOT indicate the END OF THE OVERALL THREAT posed by DRONES, which are STILL ACTIVE in OTHER REGIONS.
AIRPORT RESTRICTIONS LIFTED IN SARATOV
ТАСС (23:22:58) reports all restrictions are removed in Saratov.
Assessment: This information carries no relevance to the Ukrainian war effort.
TRUMP DENIES ALTERCATION BETWEEN MUSK AND RUBIO OVER GOVERNMENT CUTS (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
РБК-Україна (23:15 UTC) reports Trump denying a fight between Musk and Rubio over government cuts.
Assessment: This DOES NOT DIRECTLY AFFECT the MILITARY SITUATION, but it PROVIDES INSIGHT into the INTERNAL DYNAMICS of the US ADMINISTRATION. It suggests that MUSK remains INFLUENTIAL, and that TRUMP is DEFENDING BOTH HIM AND RUBIO.
OTHER MESSAGES (NO MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE):
ТАСС (23:09 UTC): Report on a legal ruling.
Светлана (22:37): Opinionated message about Poland.
ТАСС (23:34 UTC): Apple delays Siri update.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
LARGE-SCALE, MULTI-DIRECTIONAL DRONE ATTACK ACROSS UKRAINE (CONFIRMED).AT LEAST 13 DRONES now reported, targeting CHERKASY REGION. EXPLOSIONS CONFIRMED in CHERKASY OUTSKIRTS.
CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ATTACK ON DOBROPILLIA, KILLING AT LEAST 5 AND INJURING 15, DAMAGING RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS. This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT highlighting RUSSIAN TARGETING OF CIVILIANS.
CONFIRMED RUSSIAN STRIKES ON ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE IN ODESA, continuing a PATTERN OF ATTACKS aimed at WEAKENING UKRAINE.
ONGOING AND WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY ACROSS MULTIPLE REGIONS OF UKRAINE, posing a SIGNIFICANT THREAT, including to KYIV. DRONE THREAT NOW EXTENDS TO KRASNODAR KRAI, STAVROPOL KRAI IN RUSSIA.
CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES AND SUCCESSFUL BREACH OF UKRAINIAN DEFENSES IN THE KURSK REGION REMAIN CRITICAL.
CONFIRMED LOSS OF MAXAR SATELLITE IMAGERY ACCESS REMAINS A CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT.
CONFIRMED SHORTAGES OF AMMUNITION FOR UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS.
NEW AND UPDATED REPORTS:
REPORTED UKRAINIAN MIRAGE-2000 SHOOTING DOWN RUSSIAN CRUISE MISSILE.REQUIRES VERIFICATION, BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT.
REPORTED SHAHED DRONE STRIKE NEAR VEHICLE IN ODESSA.CONFIRMS ONGOING DRONE THREAT.
DRONE ACTIVITY CONFIRMED NEAR CHERKASY, EXPLOSIONS REPORTED
AIR RAID ALERT ENDED IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST
HIGH PRIORITY:
HUSITI THREAT TO ISRAELINCREASES REGIONAL TENSIONS.
CONTINUED AND INTENSE FIGHTING ON THE POKROVSK (KRASNOARMEYSK) DIRECTION.
CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR AND DRONE ATTACKS.
INTENSIFIED RUSSIAN ATTACKS ON NIKOPOL DISTRICT.
REPORTED INFLUX OF UKRAINIAN MILITARY PERSONNEL AND EQUIPMENT INTO IZYUM.
RUSSIAN ADVANCES reported in the VELIKONOVOSYOLKOVSKOYE DIRECTION.
FIRST COMBAT USE OF FRENCH MIRAGE 2000 FIGHTER JETS.
Confirmed Russian airstrike on claimed Ukrainian command post in Huliaipole.
New Russian drone "Avatar" reported.
Claimed high Ukrainian casualties in the Kursk Region.
AIR RAID ALERT ENDED IN KYIV (21:44).
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
TRUMP'S COMMENTS suggest a POTENTIAL SHIFT in US SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE.
FORMATION OF A NEW MILITARY ADMINISTRATION in DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST.
POTENTIAL SHIFT IN US POLICY towards INCREASED PRESSURE ON RUSSIA with the THREAT OF NEW SANCTIONS.
Reports of Eutelsat as possible Starlink replacement.
Basurin interview provides insights to Russian perspectives.
Reports on logistical issues, especially drone attacks targeting logistics.
Russia negotiating with the new Syrian government.
Trump discusses Bitcoin.
Reports of possible US troop redeployment.
Updated Recommendations
MAINTAIN HIGH AIR DEFENSE READINESS, PRIORITIZE CHERKASY REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
Maintain the highest level of alert for ALL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS. FOCUS ON CHERKASY REGION due to CONFIRMED DRONE ACTIVITY and REPORTED EXPLOSIONS.
Deploy additional air defense assets to the CHERKASY REGION if possible.
Issue immediate warnings to CIVILIAN POPULATIONS in CHERKASY REGION, advising them to SEEK SHELTER.
MONITOR FOR FURTHER DRONE ACTIVITY (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
Maintain constant surveillance for ADDITIONAL DRONE ACTIVITY across ALL OF UKRAINE.
Track the reported drones near CHERKASY and LUBNY.
ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES):
All other recommendations from the previous report are still in effect, with the addition of Cherkasy to high-priority locations.
The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND VOLATILE. The LARGE-SCALE DRONE ATTACK is the MOST IMMEDIATE THREAT. The focus has shifted towards CHERKASY, given CONFIRMED DRONE ACTIVITY and EXPLOSIONS. RAPID RESPONSE AND CONTINUOUS MONITORING are ESSENTIAL.
Updated Dempster-Shafer Combined Beliefs:
The Russian government is suppressing dissent related to the war in Ukraine.: 0.56
Enemy is deliberately targeting critical gas infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's economy and energy supply.: 0.62
The Loss of Maxar Satellite imagery severely cripples the decision-making of Ukraine's military.: 0.7
The attack aims to create fear and insecurity among the population by disrupting essential services.: 0.1
The targeting of DTEK gas facilities is part of a broader strategy to systematically degrade Ukraine's energy sector.: 0.08
The attack is a localized tactical maneuver with limited strategic impact.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances near Konstantinovka.: 0.02
Russia is making tactical advances in the Kursk Region.: 0.85
Russia breached Ukrainian defenses near Sudzha.: 0.62
Increased amounts of Ukrainian forces are mobilizing in Izyum.: 0.05
Russia is making large scale attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.: 0.4
Russia captured Andreyevka, Skudnoye, Burlatskoye, and Privolnoye.: 0.4
35 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russia.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 637 Ukrainian drones in the past week.: 0.1
Russia destroyed 5 HIMARS launchers in the past week.: 0.05
Russia destroyed 21 JDAM bombs.: 0.05
Intense fighting is occurring on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.3
Ukraine is counterattacking on the Pokrovsk direction.: 0.25
Russian forces captured Viktorovka.: 0.55
Attacks on the Nikopol district targeted civilian infrastructure.: 0.5
Russian forces are making advances across multiple fronts.: 0.5
There is a large drone attack in the Odessa region.: 0.6
Ukrainian forces successfully attacked a plant in Starodub: 0.3
Ukraine launched Neptune anti-ship missiles.: 0.1
Potential for imminent attack or reconnaissance mission by UAV activity in Primorsko-Akhtarsk.: 0.56
Russian attacks killed at least 5 and injured 15 in Dobropillia, damaging 4 multi-story buildings: 0.8
The Houthis might attack Israel if it does not stop disrupting agreements: 0.3
Dealing with Ukraine is more difficult than with Russia, according to Trump: 0.2
There is a large drone attack in progress across multiple regions of Ukraine.: 0.7
Russia successfully targeted energy infrastructure in Odessa: 0.7
There is a humanitarian crisis occurring in Khmeimim air base: 0.6
There is a significant threat of ballistic missile attacks from the south-east: 0.56
Ukraine made a strike at a dry food plant in Russia that provides rations to the Russian army: 0.5
There is an ongoing drone attack in the Krasnodar Krai region in Russia: 0.42
Explosions heard in Poltava: 0.44
Trump is considering moving troops to Hungary: 0.2
Russia claims Ukrainian forces are fleeing, not retreating from the Kursk region: 0.45
There is a large scale, multidirectional drone attack over Ukraine, targeting multiple regions: 0.68
Missile threat to southern regions has ended.: 0.72
A Ukrainian Mirage-2000 shot down a Russian cruise missile: 0.44
A Shahed drone struck near a vehicle in Odessa: 0.46
A Russian drone intercepted a Ukrainian drone: 0.48
Drone activity is confirmed near Cherkasy, with explosions reported on the outskirts.: 0.6
Air Raid alerts ended in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.: 0.6
Apple delayed the upgrade of Siri: 0.32
There is ongoing drone activity near Cherkasy and Lubny: 0.7
