Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 7, 2025, 02:06 UTC
Changes and New Information (00:02 UTC - 02:06 UTC)
ABKHAZIA LEADER REQUESTS ENERGY SUPPORT FROM PUTIN (LOW PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
ТАСС (00:03:43 UTC, 01:01:54 UTC, 02:01:37): Reports that Abkhazia's leader, Badra Gunba, requested support from Putin for Abkhazia's energy sector development. He also dismissed claims of "selling Abkhazia to oligarchs" as manipulation.
Assessment:NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to the IMMEDIATE MILITARY SITUATION IN UKRAINE. It HIGHLIGHTS RUSSIA'S CONTINUED INFLUENCE in the ABKHAZIA REGION and potential ECONOMIC COOPERATION. Could have LONG-TERM IMPLICATIONS for REGIONAL STABILITY and RESOURCE ALLOCATION.
EXTENSIVE DRONE ACTIVITY ACROSS UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Николаевский Ванёк (00:06:29 UTC, 00:46:32 UTC, 01:18:47 UTC): Provides DETAILED TRACKING INFORMATION on MULTIPLE DRONE MOVEMENTS across NUMEROUS REGIONS OF UKRAINE. This includes, but is not limited to:
Kyiv Oblast (Boryspil, Obukhiv)
Cherkasy Oblast
Nizhyn, Shostka (Chernihiv/Sumy Oblast)
Sumy/Poltava Oblast intersection
Kharkiv Oblast
Dnipropetrovsk/Poltava Oblast
Pavlohrad, Samar
Kirovohrad Oblast
Vinnytsia Oblast
Kremenchuk
Mykolaiv Oblast
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (00:27:33, 1:10:45, 01:27:27 UTC): CORROBORATES DRONE ACTIVITY in MULTIPLE REGIONS, providing updates on MOVEMENT AND DIRECTION.
Assessment:CONFIRMS A MASSIVE AND WIDESPREAD DRONE CAMPAIGN by RUSSIA, targeting MULTIPLE REGIONS ACROSS UKRAINE SIMULTANEOUSLY. The SHEER NUMBER OF DRONES REPORTED indicates a MAJOR ESCALATION. This STRAINS UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE RESOURCES and POSES A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE AND POPULATION CENTERS.
RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKES, SOUTH DONETSK DIRECTION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Colonelcassad (00:12:01 UTC): Video shows drone strikes by the 36th Army against Ukrainian positions in the South Donetsk direction.
Assessment:CONFIRMS RUSSIAN DRONE USE in the SOUTH DONETSK DIRECTION, targeting UKRAINIAN TROOPS and POSITIONS. REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of ONGOING FIGHTING in this area.
ТАСС (00:25:52 UTC, 00:27:11 UTC, 00:30:02 UTC, 01:00:41, 01:17:26, 2:05:48): Reports on various topics, including legal matters, military medical personnel, Trump's comments on Ukraine, and a proposed increase in child benefits.
Assessment:NOT DIRECTLY RELEVANT to the IMMEDIATE MILITARY SITUATION.
BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT FROM CRIMEA (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (00:54:32 UTC): Reports threat, lifted at 01:30:06 UTC.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (01:06:36 UTC, 01:32:43, 01:35:29, 01:39:05, 1:44:58, 1:46:55, 01:49:01, 01:51:18, 1:58:27, 01:59:19, 02:00:08 UTC): Reports MULTIPLE LAUNCHES OF KALIBR CRUISE MISSILES from the BLACK SEA, with DETAILED TRACKING INFORMATION. Targets include:
Kherson Oblast
Odesa Oblast (Odesa, Chornomorsk)
Mykolaiv Oblast
Kirovohrad Oblast
Kremenchuk (Poltava Oblast)
РБК-Україна(1:07:57, 01:33:37, 01:40:15, 1:45:49, 01:48:27, 01:49:45, 01:51:53, 01:59:09, 02:01:16 UTC) CORROBORATES MISSILE LAUNCHES AND TRACKING, reporting EXPLOSIONS IN ODESA OBLAST.
Assessment:CONFIRMS A MAJOR MISSILE ATTACK underway, TARGETING MULTIPLE REGIONS OF UKRAINE. The use of KALIBR CRUISE MISSILES from the BLACK SEA indicates a SIGNIFICANT THREAT. UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSES are ACTIVELY ENGAGED, but the SCALE OF THE ATTACK is EXTREMELY CONCERNING. POTENTIAL TARGETS include CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, particularly ENERGY FACILITIES.
OTHER AIR THREATS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (01:12:39 UTC, 01:16:17 UTC, 01:50:02 UTC, 01:51:56 UTC, 01:54:18 UTC, 02:00:44 UTC, 2:02:16, 2:03:39, 2:04:57 UTC): Reports HIGH-SPEED TARGETS and GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS in SUMY and DONETSK OBLASTS, as well as BALLISTIC MISSILES targeting MYRHODOD and other areas in SUMY OBLAST.
Assessment:MULTIPLE TYPES OF AIR THREATS are ACTIVE SIMULTANEOUSLY, including DRONES, CRUISE MISSILES, GUIDED BOMBS, and BALLISTIC MISSILES. This represents a COMPLEX AND COORDINATED ATTACK designed to OVERWHELM UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSES.
KYIV AIR RAID ALERT (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) (00:47:00, 01:33:59 UTC): Reports on and off of the alarm.
Assessment: Confirms air danger in the region.
RUSSIAN REPORTS OF UKRAINIAN ATROCITIES (LOW PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Colonelcassad (01:07:06 UTC): Reports.
Assessment: Propaganda.
TRUMP COMMENTS ON TIKTOK (LOW PRIORITY):
РБК-Україна (1:32:57): Reports.
* Assessment: Not relevant.
MACRON AND TRUMP COMMENTS (LOW PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
* *Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны* (1:27:35 UTC): Reports.
* **Assessment**: May indicate a split in strategic vision between Trump and Macron.
13. RUSSIAN DRONE ACTIVITY, KRASNODAR KRAI AND CRIMEA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
* Дневник Десантника (01:21:58 UTC, 01:22:44 UTC, 01:23:16 UTC): Reports drone activity and air defense responses.
* Assessment: Indicates area danger.
Updated Situation Summary
MASSIVE AND COORDINATED RUSSIAN AIR ATTACK UNDERWAY (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):MULTIPLE WAVES OF DRONES, KALIBR CRUISE MISSILES, GUIDED BOMBS, and BALLISTIC MISSILES are TARGETING MULTIPLE REGIONS OF UKRAINE SIMULTANEOUSLY. This includes KYIV, ODESA, MYKOLAIV, KIROVOHRAD, POLTAVA, CHERKASY, SUMY, DONETSK, KHARKIV, and VINNYTSIA OBLASTS.
ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE TARGETED (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED):REPORTS INDICATE that ENERGY FACILITIES are being TARGETED, particularly in the POLTAVA REGION.
UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSES ACTIVELY ENGAGED (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS are WORKING TO INTERCEPT the INCOMING THREATS, but the SCALE OF THE ATTACK is OVERWHELMING.
KYIV DRONE ATTACK THREAT ADDRESSED (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Air raid alert was turned off.
DRONE ATTACK ACROSS REGIONS OF UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY): Air Defenses must be prepared.
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
Updated Recommendations
MAINTAIN MAXIMUM ALERT FOR ALL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS ACROSS UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE AND CONTINUOUS ACTION):
Prioritize air defense resources to AREAS UNDER ACTIVE ATTACK from DRONES, CRUISE MISSILES, GUIDED BOMBS, and BALLISTIC MISSILES.
Track the trajectories of ALL INCOMING THREATS and ANTICIPATE TARGETS.
Engage all threats with ALL AVAILABLE AIR DEFENSE ASSETS.
Ensure civilians are in shelters and AWARE OF THE THREAT in ALL AFFECTED REGIONS.
Coordinate with allied forces for INTELLIGENCE AND SUPPORT.
ASSESS DAMAGE AND CASUALTIES FROM ONGOING ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Deploy all available intelligence and reconnaissance assets to ASSESS DAMAGE to CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, particularly ENERGY FACILITIES.
Determine the number of casualties, if any, from MISSILE AND DRONE STRIKES.
Prioritize rescue and emergency response efforts in AFFECTED AREAS.
PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL FOLLOW-UP ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
Anticipate further waves of attacks from MULTIPLE DIRECTIONS, using VARIOUS WEAPON SYSTEMS.
Maintain high readiness of AIR DEFENSE FORCES.
Prepare for potential disruptions to COMMUNICATIONS, POWER, and OTHER CRITICAL SERVICES.
ADDRESS THE AFTERMATH OF THE KYIV DRONE THREAT (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):Same as before, but with LOWER PRIORITY due to the CURRENT MISSILE ATTACKS.
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation is EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND RAPIDLY EVOLVING. The MASSIVE AND COORDINATED RUSSIAN AIR ATTACK represents a MAJOR ESCALATION and POSES A SEVERE THREAT to UKRAINE. IMMEDIATE AND SUSTAINED ACTION is required to DEFEND AGAINST THE ATTACKS, PROTECT CIVILIANS, and MITIGATE DAMAGE TO CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE. ALL AVAILABLE RESOURCES must be MOBILIZED AND DEPLOYED EFFECTIVELY.
