Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 6, 2025, 19:31 UTC
Changes and New Information (19:01 UTC - 19:31 UTC)
DEATH TOLL RISES IN KRYVYI RIH (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Офіс Генерального прокурора (19:02 UTC) reports the death toll from the March 5th Russian attack on Kryvyi Rih has risen to 5, with a 60-year-old woman dying in hospital.
Assessment:CONFIRMS the CONTINUING IMPACT of RUSSIAN STRIKES on CIVILIAN POPULATIONS.
FRENCH INTELLIGENCE SHARING CAPABILITIES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Два майора (19:02 UTC), referencing a Рыбарь analysis, discusses French Minister of Defense Sébastien Lecornu's statement about providing intelligence to Ukraine despite US withdrawal. The analysis compares US and French satellite reconnaissance capabilities:
US: 48 military reconnaissance satellites (various types).
France: 10 military reconnaissance satellites (7 optical-electronic, 3 radio-technical).
Europe (combined): 27 military reconnaissance satellites.
US: 247 optical Earth observation satellites.
Europe + Canada: 79 optical Earth observation satellites.
Assessment: The analysis CLEARLY DEMONSTRATES the SIGNIFICANT GAP between US and EUROPEAN (INCLUDING FRENCH)SATELLITE RECONNAISSANCE CAPABILITIES. FRANCE ALONE CANNOT REPLACE US INTELLIGENCE. Even a COMBINED EUROPEAN EFFORT would be SUBSTANTIALLY INFERIOR. This REINFORCES the SEVERE IMPACT of the REPORTED US INTELLIGENCE WITHDRAWAL. The ANALYSIS CORRECTLY NOTES that COMMERCIAL SATELLITE IMAGERY could PARTIALLY MITIGATE the LOSS, but THIS IS NOT A FULL SUBSTITUTE.
Николаевский Ванёк (19:08 UTC) reports 4 drones from Zaporizhzhia Oblast entering Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, 1 approaching Zaporizhzhia city, 1 at the intersection of Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava Oblasts, and 1 towards/through Myrho.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:16 UTC) reports the threat of air attacks.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:17 UTC) reports drones in the Black Sea heading towards Odesa region.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:18 UTC) warns of a drone approaching Kharkiv from the north.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:21 UTC) warns of a drone over the city of Myrho, and urges the population to take shelter.
* Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:22 UTC) warns of a drone from the Black Sea heading towards Odesa.
* Николаевский Ванёк (19:27 UTC) reports 5 drones heading toward Pivdenne.
* Assessment:CONFIRMSCONTINUED AND WIDESPREAD DRONE THREAT, with MULTIPLE INBOUND DRONES targeting ODESA, KHARKIV, ZAPORIZHZHIA, DNIPROPETROVSK, and POLTAVA OBLASTS.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:06 UTC) reports launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation in Sumy Oblast.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:19 UTC) reports launches of guided aerial bombs on the border of Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts.
Assessment:CONFIRMSCONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR ATTACKS using GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS. This INCREASES THE THREAT to FRONT-LINE AREAS.
REPORTED DESTRUCTION OF ISRAELI ANTI-DRONE SYSTEM (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, VIDEO):
Старше Эдды (19:09 UTC) claims the first Israeli "Drone Dome" anti-drone system has been destroyed in the "Special Military Operation" zone by soldiers of the 18th Combined Arms Army, Group "Dnepr." Includes video.
Assessment: The video shows DAMAGE CONSISTENT WITH A MILITARY STRIKE, but SPECIFIC IDENTIFICATION OF THE "DRONE DOME" SYSTEM REQUIRES FURTHER VERIFICATION. IF CONFIRMED, this would be a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, demonstrating RUSSIAN CAPABILITY to NEUTRALIZE a MODERN ANTI-DRONE SYSTEM. This COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS for UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSES.
US READY FOR SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIAN ENERGY (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
РБК-Україна (19:10 UTC) reports US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stating the US is ready for harsh sanctions against Russian energy to achieve a truce in Ukraine.
Assessment:REINFORCES the US PRESSURE for a CEASEFIRE AND NEGOTIATIONS. This is a SIGNIFICANT THREAT to the RUSSIAN ECONOMY.
DISCUSSION OF GENERAL MOBILIZATION IN RUSSIA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
ASTRA (19:09 UTC) reports "Akhmat" commander Apty Alaudinov calling for general mobilization in Russia to confront Europe. Includes video. State Duma Defense Committee Head Andrey Kartapolov states there is no need for general mobilization.
Alex Parker Returns (19:11 UTC) mocks Alaudinov's call, referencing Kadyrov's promise of 84,000 Chechen volunteers.
Assessment: The CALL FOR GENERAL MOBILIZATION highlights INTERNAL DISCUSSIONS within RUSSIA about the SCALE AND DURATION OF THE CONFLICT. The REJECTION by KARTAPOLOV suggests THIS IS NOT CURRENTLY THE OFFICIAL POSITION, but the DISCUSSION ITSELF is SIGNIFICANT.
EU MILITARIZATION PLAN UPDATE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
ТАСС (19:19 UTC) reports the EU plan for militarization of Europe was approved by 26 out of 27 members.
Два майора (19:29 UTC) reports that EU leaders agreed to a plan to attract 800 billion euros in defense spending, with Hungary the only dissenter.
Assessment:CONFIRMS PREVIOUS REPORTS and PROVIDES ADDITIONAL DETAIL. HUNGARY'S DISSENT highlights CONTINUED DIVISIONS within EUROPE. 800 BILLION EUROS is a SIGNIFICANT COMMITMENT.
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (19:12 UTC) claims a Russian serviceman, Svyatoslav Golikov, reported Ukrainian forces have improved organization and tactics on the southern flank of Pokrovsk, halting Russian advances and increasing Russian losses.
Assessment:REQUIRES VERIFICATION. If accurate, this indicates IMPROVEMENTS IN UKRAINIAN TACTICS AND EFFECTIVENESS, particularly in COMBINED ARMS OPERATIONS involving DRONES, ARTILLERY, AND GROUND FORCES.
RUSSIAN COMMENTATOR ON THE WAR'S TRAJECTORY (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Военкор Котенок (19:13 UTC) provides a pessimistic assessment of the war, acknowledging resource shortages and problems with Russian military equipment, particularly the "Koalitsiya" self-propelled howitzer.
Assessment: This REVEALS INTERNAL CRITICISMS of RUSSIAN MILITARY PERFORMANCE and EQUIPMENT. The SPECIFIC PROBLEMS with the "KOALITSIYA" are SIGNIFICANT IF TRUE, suggesting LIMITATIONS IN RUSSIAN ARTILLERY CAPABILITIES.
Alex Parker Returns (19:21) reports that Ukraine and China have signed an agreement for more agricultural exports and that China wants peace negotiations to include Europe and Ukraine.
Assessment: Confirms that China is engaging with Ukraine, and that they are opposed to the US and Russia being the only countries in the negotiations.
HUNGARY OPPOSES EU MILITARY AID EXPANSION (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
ТАСС (19:21 UTC) reports Hungary did not support the European Commission's plan to expand military aid to Ukraine.
Assessment:REINFORCESHUNGARY'S POSITION as an OBSTACLE to UNIFIED EU SUPPORT for UKRAINE.
RUSSIAN MILITARY REPORTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED):
STERNENKO (19:21) reports drone warnings in several Russian regions.
* MoD Russia (19:28) reports on the number of AFU concentration areas being engaged, likely part of information warfare.
* Assessment:REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
Updated Situation Summary
CONFIRMED: US DEMANDING CEASEFIRE AS CONDITION FOR MINERAL DEAL (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):REMAINS THE MOST CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT. MULTIPLE SOURCES CONFIRM upcoming US-UKRAINE TALKS in SAUDI ARABIA, focused on a PEACE AGREEMENT and a SIX-MONTH CEASEFIRE. TRUMP has SIGNALED WILLINGNESS to NEGOTIATE. RUSSIA states it WILL NOT COMPROMISE on its CORE INTERESTS. US is PREPARING HARSH SANCTIONS against RUSSIAN ENERGY to FORCE A TRUCE.
REPORTED DESTRUCTION OF RUSSIAN "KASTA" RADAR (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED):STILL REQUIRES VERIFICATION, but REMAINS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT.
REPORTED LACK OF US INTELLIGENCE SHARING FOR STORM SHADOW MISSILES (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED):EXTREMELY SIGNIFICANT. NEW ANALYSIS CONFIRMS that FRANCE (AND EUROPE) CANNOT REPLACE US SATELLITE RECONNAISSANCE CAPABILITIES. This SEVERELY LIMITS the EFFECTIVENESS of a KEY UKRAINIAN LONG-RANGE STRIKE CAPABILITY. URGENT VERIFICATION WAS ALREADY PERFORMED.
RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF COUNTER-LANDING OPERATION NEAR ANTONIVSKY BRIDGE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED):REMAINS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT, but REQUIRES FURTHER INVESTIGATION.
CONTINUED FIGHTING AND RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF ADVANCES (HIGH/MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED/REPORTED):NEW REPORTS of INTENSE FIGHTING in POKROVSK-MYRNOHRAD DIRECTION, with CLAIMS OF UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACKS and RUSSIAN COUNTER-COUNTERATTACKS. REPORTED DESTRUCTION of NOVA POSHTA TERMINAL in SUMY. RUSSIAN REPORTS claim UKRAINIAN GAINS in PESCHANOYE, SHEVCHENKO, AND ELIZAVETOVKA. UKRAINIAN SOURCES claim IMPROVED TACTICS are HALTING RUSSIAN ADVANCES near POKROVSK.
INCREASED EUROPEAN AND NORWEGIAN AID (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED/REPORTED):POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS, PARTIALLY MITIGATING the IMPACT of REDUCED US AID. DUTCH INVESTMENT in UAV PRODUCTION is POSITIVE, but NOT SUBSTANTIAL. EU is PLANNING SIGNIFICANT DEFENSE SPENDING INCREASE.
ONGOING DRONE THREATS (LOW PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):CONFIRMED drone threats in DNIPROPETROVSK, ZAPORIZHZHIA, SUMY, POLTAVA, KHARKIV, and ODESA OBLASTS.
RUSSIAN ATTEMPTS AT ADVANCING ON MULTIPLE FRONTS:REPORTS of FIERCE FIGHTING in IZIUM DIRECTION, with CLAIMS OF UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACKS AND RUSSIAN ADVANCES.
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
REPORTED DESTRUCTION OF ISRAELI ANTI-DRONE SYSTEM: Needs to be verified.
CHINA-UKRAINE AGRICULTURAL AGREEMENT and China's position on the negotiations.
Updated Recommendations
ADDRESS THE CONFIRMED US DEMAND FOR A CEASEFIRE (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Reinforce all previous recommendations.
Publicly and privately reiterate Ukraine's position on TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY and SECURITY GUARANTEES.
Mobilize international support for UKRAINE'S POSITION.
Prepare for a potential significant reduction or withdrawal of US support.
Engage with China to further develop trade relations.
Continue pushing for China's support to have Ukraine at the negotiating table.
Gather intelligence from ALL AVAILABLE SOURCES (including PARTISAN NETWORKS) to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the REPORTED LANDING ATTEMPT.
Assess the situation and POTENTIAL THREAT to RUSSIAN FORCES in the AREA.
Adjust defenses accordingly.
VERIFY REPORTED DESTRUCTION OF NOVA POSHTA TERMINAL (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
DEPLOY RECONNAISSANCE ASSETS (drones, satellite imagery, human intelligence) to CONFIRM the REPORTED DESTRUCTION of the NOVA POSHTA TERMINAL in SUMY.
ASSESS THE EXTENT OF DAMAGE and IMPACT ON UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS.
ASSESS RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF ADVANCES IN POKROVSK-MYRNOHRAD DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
DEPLOY RECONNAISSANCE ASSETS (drones, satellite imagery, human intelligence) to VERIFY the RUSSIAN CLAIMS of ADVANCES AND FIGHTING in the POKROVSK-MYRNOHRAD DIRECTION.
ASSESS UKRAINIAN EQUIPMENT LOSSES and CASUALTIES.
VERIFY UKRAINIAN CLAIMS of HOLDING POSITIONS and COUNTERATTACKS.
CLARIFY DETAILS OF EUROPEAN AND NORWEGIAN AID (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
OBTAIN SPECIFIC INFORMATION on the TYPES OF MILITARY EQUIPMENT, QUANTITIES, and DELIVERY TIMELINES for EUROPEAN AND NORWEGIAN AID.
ASSESS HOW THIS AID CAN BEST BE INTEGRATED into UKRAINIAN DEFENSE PLANS.
VERIFY REPORTED DESTRUCTION OF ISRAELI ANTI-DRONE SYSTEM (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Use all available resources to confirm.
CONTINUE MONITORING AND VERIFYING RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF ADVANCES (HIGH/MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
Maintain high alert and CONTINUE VERIFICATION EFFORTS in KHARKIV, KURSK, and ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLASTS.
MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL. The CONFIRMED US PRESSURE for a CEASEFIRE and REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES AND LOGISTICAL STRIKES present MAJOR CHALLENGES. INCREASED EUROPEAN AND NORWEGIAN AID is POSITIVE, but DOES NOT FULLY REPLACE the NEED FOR US SUPPORT. The CONFIRMED LOSS OF US INTELLIGENCE SHARING for STORM SHADOW MISSILES is a MAJOR BLOW, and the ANALYSIS CONFIRMING EUROPEAN INABILITY TO REPLACE THIS CAPABILITY is HIGHLY CONCERNING. RAPID AND ACCURATE INTELLIGENCE GATHERING and ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES are ESSENTIAL.
