Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 6, 2025, 09:31 UTC
Changes and New Information (09:02 UTC - 09:31 UTC)
RUSSIAN MINISTRY OF INTERNAL AFFAIRS WEBSITE OUTAGE (LOW PRIORITY, UPDATE):
ТАСС (09:17 UTC) reports the websites of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) have been restored after an outage. Operational services attribute the cause to a "power surge."
Assessment: This CORRECTS THE PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT. While a cyberattack was initially a possibility, the official explanation is a POWER SURGE. This REDUCES THE LIKELIHOOD of DIRECT MILITARY IMPLICATIONS, although INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITIES remain a CONCERN. It's important to calculate the probability of a power surge affecting the whole nation, and to consider a possible attack targeting the electricity infrastructure. This will be considered using the Dempster-Shafer rule.
Dempster-Shafer Combination Result: A power surge is now considered the most plausible cause (56%).
CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN ANDRIIVKA, DONETSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
ТАСС (09:08 UTC), Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (09:14 UTC), and НгП раZVедка (09:18 UTC) report Russian forces have "liberated" Andriivka in Donetsk Oblast.
Map analysis from Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (09:14 UTC) shows arrows indicating Russian offensive movements towards Konstantinopol and Kurakhovo, and marking Andreevska as Russian controlled.
Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT CLAIM, REQUIRING URGENT VERIFICATION. MULTIPLE RUSSIAN SOURCES report the same, INCREASING CONFIDENCE, but INDEPENDENT CONFIRMATION IS ESSENTIAL. If confirmed, this represents a RUSSIAN ADVANCE in a KEY AREA.
AIR RAID ALERTS IN ZAPORIZHZHIA AND DNIPROPETROVSK OBLASTS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (09:08 UTC) and Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (09:09 UTC) report air raid alerts in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, warning of "aviation means of destruction."
Assessment: This CONFIRMS an IMMEDIATE THREAT of AIR ATTACK in these regions. REQUIRES IMMEDIATE DEFENSIVE MEASURES.
RUSSIAN AIR FORCE ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN & UKRAINIAN SOURCES):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (09:12 UTC) reports a "high-speed target" in Sumy Oblast, heading southwest.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (09:13, 09:17 UTC) reports a threat of ballistic weapons and rockets in Sumy.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (09:20 UTC) reports guided bombs on the borders of Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia.
MoD Russia (09:28 UTC) reports Su-34 aircraft crews launching strikes with FAB-500 bombs with unified gliding and correction modules against AFU temporary deployment areas near Omelnik and Yegorovka (Zaporizhzhia region).
Video analysis confirms aerial footage of strikes on buildings in a residential area.
Assessment: This CONFIRMSINTENSE RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY, with MULTIPLE THREATS including HIGH-SPEED TARGETS, BALLISTIC MISSILES, GUIDED BOMBS, and AIRCRAFT STRIKES. This SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES THE RISK to MULTIPLE REGIONS.
RUSSIAN CLAIM OF STRIKES ON UKRAINIAN MILITARY TARGETS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
ТАСС (09:10 UTC) reports the Russian military struck Ukrainian military airfields, an electrical substation, drone depots and control centers.
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (09:13 UTC) reports an Iskander strike on the Pavlograd chemical plant, claiming destruction of fuel mixing lines, chemical storage, a powder workshop, and a chemical analysis laboratory. Secondary detonation reported, suggesting explosives storage.
Assessment: Claims of Russian strikes, and destruction.
WarGonzo (09:25 UTC) reports on the testing of the "Katran" unmanned boat by the Black Sea Fleet. Capabilities include autonomous patrol, submarine search, surface monitoring, sabotage prevention, and attack.
Воин DV (09:30 UTC) claims Russian drone operators of the 36th Army's Eastern Group are destroying Ukrainian forces in the basements and houses of various settlements in the South Donetsk direction.
Video analysis shows drone footage of a strike on a rural structure, with a possible body visible after the explosion.
Assessment: This REINFORCES the CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND USE of UNMANNED SYSTEMS by RUSSIAN FORCES, both MARITIME and AERIAL. The CLAIMED CAPABILITIES of the "Katran" are SIGNIFICANT if true. The video from Воин DVCONFIRMSDRONE STRIKES are CONTINUING.
UKRAINIAN REPORTS OF INTELLIGENCE SHARING (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
РБК-Україна (09:06 UTC) and STERNENKO (09:04 UTC) report that Ukraine received 80% of its intelligence from allies, primarily the US, but that this sharing has been suspended. France is reportedly offering to provide intelligence.
Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of US INTELLIGENCE SHARING SUSPENSION, which is a MAJOR CONCERN for UKRAINE. The offer of FRENCH INTELLIGENCE is POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT, but REQUIRES VERIFICATION of its SCOPE AND EFFECTIVENESS.
Colonelcassad (09:14 UTC) claims the destruction of an abandoned Ukrainian 2S1 "Gvozdika" self-propelled howitzer by fiber-optic guided FPV drones on the Kramatorsk direction.
Video analysis confirms footage of a Russian T-80BV being struck by a drone.
Assessment: This REINFORCES the CONTINUED USE OF FPV DRONES.
UKRAINIAN REPORTS OF TARGETING OF NOVA POSHTA FACILITIES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (09:07 UTC) claims Russian forces are deliberately targeting Nova Poshta terminals. Reports the destruction of a terminal in Sumy by Russian drones, resulting in one death, and a previous strike on a facility near Odesa.
Video and image analysis confirms extensive damage to a Nova Poshta facility, consistent with a drone or missile strike.
Assessment: This SUGGESTS A PATTERN of RUSSIAN ATTACKS on CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE, specifically LOGISTICS FACILITIES. This has SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS for SUPPLY CHAINS and HUMANITARIAN AID.
OTHER REPORTS (LOWER PRIORITY):
Alex Parker Returns (09:02 UTC): Reports on Kyiv metro upgrades with a 50 million euro loan. (No direct military impact)
ТАСС (09:02 UTC): Reports on Russian Olympic Committee legal issues. (No direct military impact)
ASTRA (09:13 UTC): Reports on a former Moscow municipal deputy being sentenced in absentia for "fakes" about the Russian army. (No direct military impact)
Anatoly Shariy (09:14 UTC): Reports the death of a Russian paratrooper commander, Major Artem Neplyuev. (Impact on specific unit morale, but no broader strategic impact.)
Basurin (09:16 UTC): Reports on an upcoming EU summit to discuss the Ukraine conflict and European defense, with potential for disagreement among member states. (Potential diplomatic implications)
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREME PRIORITY:
INTENSE RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY confirmed across multiple regions, with threats of HIGH-SPEED TARGETS, BALLISTIC MISSILES, GUIDED BOMBS, and AIRCRAFT STRIKES.
CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE in ANDRIIVKA, DONETSK OBLAST, REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION.
CONTINUED RUSSIAN DRONE AND MISSILE STRIKES, confirmed.
CONFIRMED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES, including CLAIMED strikes on UKRAINIAN MILITARY TARGETS and INFRASTRUCTURE.
Reports of widespread Russian drone and missile strikes continue, confirmed.
Confirmed Russian airstrike on claimed Ukrainian command post in Huliaipole.
Continued fighting on multiple fronts, especially near Pokrovsk.
Russian forces reportedly targeting Ukrainian command post.
Reports of the logistical situation in the Kursk region is very bad.
New Russian drone "Avatar" reported.
HIGH PRIORITY:
AIR RAID ALERTS in ZAPORIZHZHIA and DNIPROPETROVSK OBLASTS, IMMEDIATE THREAT.
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND USE of RUSSIAN UNMANNED SYSTEMS, both MARITIME and AERIAL.
POSSIBLE PATTERN of RUSSIAN ATTACKS on NOVA POSHTALOGISTICS FACILITIES.
Russian forces claim airstrike with UMPK-equipped bomb in Pokrovsk direction.
REPORTED SUSPENSION OF EU MILITARY AID PACKAGE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED):NEGATIVE LONG-TERM IMPLICATIONS for UKRAINE.
Arrest of collaborator.
German plant in Ukraine.
Reports of heavy Russian casualties (Cemetery report).
Reports on a Russian missile strike on the 168th reserve battalion.
RUSSIAN T-72 TANK CREW in ACTION in the KHARKIV REGION, confirming CONTINUED TANK USE.
RUSSIAN FPV DRONE STRIKE on a CLAIMED UKRAINIAN UAV CONTROL POINT.
UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE CLAIMS to have SHOT DOWN a LARGE NUMBER OF DRONES, but the numbers are SUSPICIOUS.
CONFIRMED RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKE on a NOVA POSHTA TERMINAL in SUMY, causing CASUALTIES and DISRUPTING LOGISTICS.
CLAIMED DEPLOYMENT of 18-YEAR-OLD UKRAINIAN RECRUITS to SUDZHA, REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
MEDIUM PRIORITY:
US INTELLIGENCE SHARING SUSPENSION remains a MAJOR CONCERN; FRENCH OFFER requires VERIFICATION.
Ukrainian forces are reporting progress in Toretsk.
Russian claims control of key route near Sumy.
Russian forces target Ukrainian territorial defense with FAB-500.
Lithuania exits cluster munitions convention.
Kharkiv and Sumy attacked.
Ukrainian General Staff reports naval activity.
Russian air defense intercepts drone over Voronezh.
Macron warns of Russian expansion, Zelensky response.
South Korea/US accidental bombing.
CONTINUED ESPIONAGE ACTIVITIES INSIDE RUSSIA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED):ARREST of ALLEGED SBU INFORMANT in VORONEZH.
Reports of Eutelsat as possible Starlink replacement.
Basurin interview provides insights to Russian perspectives.
RYBAR questions the RELIABILITY OF US-SUPPLIED EQUIPMENT, POTENTIAL PROPAGANDA.
LOW PRIORITY:
Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs website restored.
Other.
Updated Recommendations
ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT, WITH THE FOLLOWING ADDITIONS AND MODIFICATIONS:
All previous recommendations, particularly those concerning addressing the Kryvyi Rih aftermath, maintaining air defense readiness, verifying Russian advances, verifying the Huliaipole strike, investigating and countering the new Ukrainian drone threat, and investigating the Iskander-M strike remain in effect and are urgently reinforced.
Urgently assess and address logistical issues in the KURSK REGION.
Verify and assess FRENCH INTELLIGENCE OFFER.
Verify and assess CLAIMS OF CUTTING OFF HIMARS TARGETING DATA.
MAINTAIN EXTREME AIR DEFENSE READINESS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
IMMEDIATELY DEPLOY AND ACTIVATE all available AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS in ZAPORIZHZHIA, DNIPROPETROVSK, and SUMY OBLASTS.
PRIORITIZE PROTECTION of CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE and POPULATION CENTERS.
COORDINATE with ALLIED FORCES to MAXIMIZE DETECTION AND INTERCEPTION CAPABILITIES.
PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL BALLISTIC MISSILE ATTACKS.
VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN ANDRIIVKA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
DEPLOY ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, HUMINT, SIGINT) to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the RUSSIAN CLAIM of CONTROL OVER ANDRIIVKA.
ASSESS THE IMPACT on UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE POSITIONS if the claim is confirmed.
PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL COUNTEROFFENSIVE OPERATIONS if necessary.
INVESTIGATE POTENTIAL TARGETING OF NOVA POSHTA FACILITIES (HIGH PRIORITY, INVESTIGATION):
GATHER INTELLIGENCE on RUSSIAN TARGETING CRITERIA and CAPABILITIES.
ASSESS THE VULNERABILITY of OTHER LOGISTICS FACILITIES and DEVELOP PROTECTIVE MEASURES.
CONSIDER ALTERNATIVE SUPPLY ROUTES and METHODS to MITIGATE DISRUPTIONS.
ASSESS FRENCH INTELLIGENCE OFFER (MEDIUM PRIORITY, EVALUATION):
DETERMINE THE SCOPE AND EFFECTIVENESS of the FRENCH INTELLIGENCE OFFER.
EVALUATE ITS ABILITY to COMPENSATE FOR THE LOSS OF US INTELLIGENCE.
ESTABLISH SECURE COMMUNICATION CHANNELS for INTELLIGENCE SHARING.
VERIFY RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKE REPORT IN POKROVSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Deploy all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, HUMINT, SIGINT) to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the REPORTED AIRSTRIKE.
Assess the damage to UKRAINIAN FORCES AND INFRASTRUCTURE if the strike is confirmed.
Determine the precise location of the strike and IDENTIFY ANY UKRAINIAN UNITS that may have been AFFECTED.
Analyze the use of UMPK glide bombs by RUSSIAN FORCES and DEVELOP COUNTERMEASURES. This includes:
Improving early warning systems
Deploying air defense assets to INTERCEPT GLIDE BOMBS
Dispersing forces to MINIMIZE TARGET VULNERABILITY
Reviewing and improvingAFTER ACTION REVIEW procedures.
The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND VOLATILE. The CONFIRMED INTENSE RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY, the CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN ANDRIIVKA, the POTENTIAL TARGETING OF LOGISTICS FACILITIES, and the CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY surrounding US INTELLIGENCE SHARING create a HIGHLY THREATENING ENVIRONMENT. IMMEDIATE ACTION is required to DEFEND AGAINST AIR ATTACKS, VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIMS, and MITIGATE THE IMPACT OF LOGISTICAL DISRUPTIONS. RAPID DECISION-MAKING and EFFECTIVE COORDINATION are ESSENTIAL.
