Situation Report

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 6, 2025, 06:31 UTC

Key Changes Since Last Update (06:01 UTC - 06:31 UTC):

1. CONFIRMED CASUALTIES IN KRYVYI RIH ROCKET ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • ASTRA, Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine, RBC Ukraine, Sever.Realii: All confirm that THREE PEOPLE ARE DEAD and 31 INJURED (including a 13-year-old girl, with 14 in serious condition) as a result of the RUSSIAN ROCKET ATTACK on KRYVYI RIH last night. The attack damaged a hotel ("Central" Hotel, as reported earlier), 14 apartment buildings, a post office, cars, a cultural institution, and shops. Rescue operations continue.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS SIGNIFICANT CASUALTIES AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGE from the KRYVYI RIH ATTACK. The high number of injured and the damage to civilian infrastructure underscore the DEVASTATING IMPACT of the RUSSIAN STRIKE. This requires IMMEDIATE HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE and WAR CRIMES INVESTIGATION.

2. UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF REPORTS ON BATTLEFIELD ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Reports 109 combat clashes in the past 24 hours. Russian forces conducted 3 missile strikes (4 missiles), 85 airstrikes (121 KAB guided bombs), over 4,000 shellings (144 from MLRS), and deployed 2,547 attack drones. Ukrainian forces struck 16 areas of concentration of personnel and equipment, a command post, and an EW station.

     • Kharkiv Direction: 6 enemy attacks repelled near Vovchansk and towards Petro-Ivanivka.
     • Kupyansk Direction: 3 enemy attacks repelled near Golubivka and Zagryzove.
     • Lymansky Direction: 10 enemy attacks near Novomykhailivka and Nove.
     • Kramatorsk Direction: 9 clashes near Chasiv Yar, Oleksandro-Shultyne, and Predtechyne.
     • Toretsk Direction: 21 enemy attacks near Toretsk, Dachne, Krymske, and Diliivka.
     • Pokrovsk Direction: 18 enemy attacks repelled near Elizavetivka, Promin, Pischanne, Kotlyne, Kotlyarivka, Serhiivka, Bohdanivka, and Andriyivka.
     • Novopavlivsk Direction: 8 enemy attacks repelled near Kostyantynopil, Rozdolne, Skudne, and Burlatske.
     • Huliaipole Direction: 1 enemy attack towards Vilne Pole.
     • Orikhiv Direction: 4 enemy attacks repelled near Kamyanske, Pavlivka, and Lobkove.
     • Kursk Operational Zone: Ukrainian forces repelled 27 attacks, faced 35 airstrikes (46 guided bombs) and 380 artillery strikes (10 from MLRS).
     • Siversky and Prydniprovsk Directions: No active enemy actions.
     • Volyn and Polissya Directions: No signs of enemy offensive groupings.

   • Assessment: The HIGH NUMBER OF COMBAT CLASHES and the INTENSE RUSSIAN USE OF AIRPOWER AND ARTILLERY indicate a CONTINUATION OF LARGE-SCALE MILITARY OPERATIONS. The reports across multiple directions suggest a BROAD-FRONTED CONFLICT. The UKRAINIAN CLAIMS OF REPULSED ATTACKS need INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION, but indicate ACTIVE DEFENSE. The DETAILS ON RUSSIAN LOSSES (1140 personnel, 5 tanks, 7 AFVs, 21 artillery systems, 2 air defense systems, 80 UAVs, 94 vehicles) are UNVERIFIED but are CONSISTENT WITH HIGH-INTENSITY CONFLICT.

3. RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR KUPYANSK (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Basurin o glavnom: Citing Andrey Marochko, reports Russian forces advanced 1km into Ukrainian defenses near Kupyansk, specifically near Figolevka, Dvurechnaya, and Zapadnoye.
   • Assessment: This reinforces claims of advances, and should be verified.

4. RUSSIAN FORCES REPORT ADVANCE NEAR IVANIVKA AND YAMPOLIVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Dnevnik Desantnika: Reports Russian forces advanced 3.5km from Ivanivka towards Nove, and are expanding control from Yampolivka towards Zarichne. Claims Ukrainian forces are primarily using FPV drones to resist.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the LYMANSKY DIRECTION. The 3.5KM ADVANCE is SIGNIFICANT if confirmed. The UKRAINIAN RELIANCE ON FPV DRONES suggests a POSSIBLE LACK OF HEAVY WEAPONRY or AMMUNITION SHORTAGES.

5. UKRAINE CLAIMS TO HAVE PRESENTED EVIDENCE OF RUSSIAN CHEMICAL WEAPONS USE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ASTRA: Report that Ukraine presented evidence to the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) in the Hague. 6900 cases of chemical weapons use were reported, with 2100 soldiers seeking medical help.
   • Assessment: The claim should be investigated.

6. SOUTH KOREA F-16 ACCIDENTALLY DROPS BOMBS (LOW PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Fighterbomber, RBC Ukraine, Operativny ZSU: Report a South Korean F-16 accidentally dropped 8 bombs on a residential area of Pocheon, injuring 7 people.
   • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT ACCIDENT with POTENTIAL INTERNATIONAL REPERCUSSIONS. While NOT DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE UKRAINE CONFLICT, it highlights the RISK OF ACCIDENTAL BOMBINGS and the IMPORTANCE OF FLIGHT SAFETY.

7. ZELENSKY TO VISIT BRUSSELS (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • RBC Ukraine: Reports President Zelensky will attend a special meeting of the European Council in Brussels today and meet with various EU and NATO leaders.
   • Assessment: This visit REINFORCES UKRAINE'S DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS to SECURE CONTINUED SUPPORT from WESTERN ALLIES. This is PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT given the POTENTIAL THREAT OF REDUCED US AID.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXTREME PRIORITY:

  • Kryvyi Rih Rocket Attack Aftermath: CONFIRMED high casualties (3 dead, 31 injured) and widespread damage. URGENT HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE and WAR CRIMES INVESTIGATION required.
  • Confirmed Russian airstrike on claimed Ukrainian command post in Huliaipole.
  • Intense Russian strikes across Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
  • Continued fighting on multiple fronts, especially near Pokrovsk.
  • Russian forces reportedly targeting Ukrainian command post.

• HIGH PRIORITY:

  • Russian forces claim 1km advance near Kupyansk.
  • Russian forces report 3.5km advance near Ivanivka.
  • Ukrainian General Staff reports intense fighting and widespread Russian attacks.
  • Sumy drone attack: Casualty confirmed.
  • Reported increase of Ukrainian forces in Seversk.
  • New type of Ukrainian drone reported, controlled by fiber-optic cable.
  • Intense fighting near Chasiv Yar.
  • Kharkiv drone attack details confirmed.
  • Russian forces targeting Ukrainian EW.

• MEDIUM PRIORITY:

  • Ukraine claims to have presented evidence of chemical weapons use by Russia.
  • Russian forces target Ukrainian territorial defense with FAB-500.
  • Lithuania exits cluster munitions convention.
  • Kharkiv and Sumy attacked.
  • Ukrainian General Staff reports naval activity.
  • Russian air defense intercepts drone over Voronezh.
  • Macron warns of Russian expansion, Zelensky response.
  • South Korea/US accidental bombing.

• LOW PRIORITY:

  • Zelensky to visit Brussels.
  • All the rest.

Updated Recommendations

1. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT, WITH THE FOLLOWING ADDITIONS AND MODIFICATIONS:

   • All previous recommendations, particularly those concerning verifying the Huliaipole strike, addressing the Kryvyi Rih aftermath, maintaining air defense readiness, verifying Russian advances, and investigating and countering the new Ukrainian drone threat, remain in effect and are urgently reinforced.

2. ADDRESS THE KRYVYI RIH ROCKET ATTACK AFTERMATH (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION): The recommendation is reinforced. FOCUS on SUPPORTING RESCUE EFFORTS, PROVIDING MEDICAL CARE TO THE INJURED, and DOCUMENTING THE DAMAGE for POTENTIAL WAR CRIMES PROSECUTION.

3. ANALYZE UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF REPORT (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Cross-reference the Ukrainian claims with OTHER INTELLIGENCE SOURCES (satellite imagery, SIGINT, HUMINT) to VERIFY THE REPORTED COMBAT CLASHES, RUSSIAN ATTACKS, AND UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE SUCCESSES.
   • Prioritize verification of the REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES near KUPYANSK, IVANIVKA, and YAMPOLIVKA.
   • Assess the implications of the HIGH NUMBER OF COMBAT CLASHES and the INTENSE RUSSIAN USE OF AIRPOWER AND ARTILLERY for UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE CAPABILITIES.
   • Analyze the reported Russian losses to ASSESS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT on RUSSIAN OPERATIONAL CAPABILITIES.

4. INVESTIGATE REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the Russian claims of advances near KUPYANSK, IVANIVKA, and YAMPOLIVKA. This is CRITICAL for UNDERSTANDING THE EVOLVING BATTLEFIELD SITUATION.
   • Assess the impact of any confirmed Russian advances on UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE POSITIONS and LOGISTICAL ROUTES.
   • Prepare contingency plans for POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVES or REINFORCEMENTS.

5. INVESTIGATE UKRAINIAN CLAIMS OF RUSSIAN CHEMICAL WEAPONS USE (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Gather and review Ukrainian reports, and start a complete investigation.

6. MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE READINESS (EXTREME PRIORITY): The recommendation is reinforced.

7. ADDRESS THE AFTERMATH OF THE KRYVYI RIH ROCKET ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION): The recommendation is reinforced.

The situation remains extremely volatile and dangerous. The confirmed high casualties in the Kryvyi Rih rocket attack and the continued widespread fighting across multiple fronts demand immediate attention. Verification of reported Russian advances is critical. The potential use of new Ukrainian drone technology and the reports of Russian advances represent significant tactical challenges.