Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 6, 2025, 05:31 UTC

Changes and New Information (05:01 UTC - 05:31 UTC)

1. RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKE ON HULIAIPOLE COMMAND POST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, VIDEO):

   • Воин DV (05:30 UTC): Video shows an airstrike purportedly targeting a Ukrainian command post in Huliaipole, within the area of responsibility of the "Vostok" group of forces. The 11th Guards Air Force and Air Defense Army is credited with the strike.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS a RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKE on a CLAIMED UKRAINIAN COMMAND POST in HULIAIPOLE. The video APPEARS TO SHOW A TARGETED STRIKE in a POPULATED AREA. URGENT VERIFICATION NEEDED from UKRAINIAN SOURCES to CONFIRM THE TARGET and ASSESS DAMAGE AND CASUALTIES. The involvement of the 11TH GUARDS AIR FORCE suggests a POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT STRIKE.

2. KRYVYI RIH ROCKET ATTACK AFTERMATH, CASUALTIES AND DAMAGE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, PHOTOS):

   • 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (05:30 UTC): Reports 3 deaths (men and a woman) and 31 injuries (including one child, 14 in serious condition) from the nighttime rocket attack on Kryvyi Rih. Damage includes a hotel, 14 apartment buildings, a post office, almost 20 cars, a cultural institution, and 12 shops. Rescue operations continue. Multiple photos show extensive damage.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS SIGNIFICANT CASUALTIES AND DAMAGE from the KRYVYI RIH ROCKET ATTACK. The HIGH NUMBER OF INJURIES, including MANY IN SERIOUS CONDITION, is EXTREMELY CONCERNING. The WIDESPREAD DAMAGE to CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE is SIGNIFICANT. This REINFORCES the IMPACT of RUSSIAN STRIKES on CIVILIAN AREAS.

3. MARHANETS ATTACK, NO CASUALTIES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (05:30 UTC): Reports an artillery attack and drone strike on the Marhanets community in Nikopol Raion. No casualties reported.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED RUSSIAN ATTACKS in the NIKOPOL REGION. The LACK OF CASUALTIES is FORTUNATE, but the ATTACKS themselves MAINTAIN PRESSURE on UKRAINIAN FORCES and CIVILIAN POPULATIONS.

4. UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE DOWNS 6 DRONES IN DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (05:30 UTC): Reports 6 drones downed in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight.

• Assessment: Reports that Ukrainian forces were able to defend against the attacks.

5. ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST STRIKES, NO CASUALTIES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, PHOTOS):

   • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (05:10 UTC): Reports 440 strikes on 8 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast in the past 24 hours. Includes 10 airstrikes (Pʼiatykhatky, Huliaipole, Charivne), 245 drone attacks (Kamʼianske, Huliaipole, Shcherbaky, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Charivne, Novodarivka), 16 MLRS attacks (Kamʼianske, Shcherbaky, Mala Tokmachka, Novodanylivka, Charivne), and 169 artillery strikes (Kamʼianske, Huliaipole, Shcherbaky, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Charivne, Novodarivka). 13 reports of damage to apartments, houses, and garages. No civilian casualties reported. Photos show damage.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS INTENSE RUSSIAN STRIKES across MULTIPLE LOCATIONS in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST. The HIGH NUMBER OF STRIKES (440) using a VARIETY OF WEAPONS (airstrikes, drones, MLRS, artillery) indicates a SUSTAINED ASSAULT. The LACK OF REPORTED CASUALTIES is FORTUNATE, but the DAMAGE TO CIVILIAN PROPERTY is SIGNIFICANT.

6. WARGONZO FRONT REPORT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, MAPS):

   • WarGonzo (05:08 UTC): Reports positional fighting on the Zaporizhzhia front. On the Donetsk front, Russian forces are advancing north of Burlatske, facing Ukrainian counterattacks. Active fighting near Konstantynopol, Pokrovsk, and Dzerzhinsk, with Ukrainian counterattacks. Fighting continues in Chasov Yar, with reports of enemy long-range weapons targeting Russian rear areas. In the Kursk region, Russian forces are advancing towards Mala Loknia with heavy fighting. Maps show these areas.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of INTENSE FIGHTING across MULTIPLE FRONTS. The RUSSIAN ADVANCES near BURLATSKE and MALA LOKNIA are NOTEWORTHY, but UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACKS are SLOWING PROGRESS. The FIGHTING IN CHASOV YAR and the use of LONG-RANGE WEAPONS highlight the INTENSITY of the CONFLICT there.

7. SUMY DRONE ATTACK, CASUALTY CONFIRMED (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, PHOTOS):

   • РБК-Україна (05:04 UTC): Reports a 32-year-old man, likely a security guard, killed in a Russian drone attack on a warehouse on the outskirts of Sumy. Photos of the damage.
   • ASTRA (05:16 UTC): Confirms the death.

• Assessment: The attack caused one death and the destruction of a warehouse.

8. RYBAR'S KURSK OBLAST ANALYSIS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, VIDEO):

   • Рыбарь (05:01 UTC): Video analysis of operations in Kursk Oblast from Feb 1 to Mar 5, 2025. Claims Ukrainian forces initiated an offensive near Ulanok in early February, but were stopped by Russian forces. Russian forces then counterattacked, regained territory, and disrupted Ukrainian supply lines. Russian forces reportedly broke through defenses in Sverdlikovo, took control of the state border, and crossed into Sumy Oblast near Zhuravka and Novenkoe. Russian forces targeted the "Yunakivka-Sudzha" route, disrupting Ukrainian logistics.
   • Assessment: This PROVIDES A DETAILED, RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE on the KURSK OBLAST SITUATION. The CLAIMS OF RUSSIAN SUCCESSES in REGAINING TERRITORY and DISRUPTING UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS are SIGNIFICANT, but REQUIRE INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION.

9. ISW ON US INTELLIGENCE SHARING (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED):

   • РБК-Україна (05:02 UTC): Reports that, according to ISW, pausing the exchange of intelligence information between the US and Ukraine will allow Russia to enhance its missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian territory.

10. UKRAINIAN CLAIMS OF ENEMY LOSSES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES, PHOTOS):

    • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (05:17 UTC): Claims significant Russian losses from Feb 24, 2022, to Mar 6, 2025, including ~881,800 personnel, 370 aircraft, 331 helicopters, 10,261 tanks, 21,311 AFVs, 24,108 artillery systems, and other equipment.

• ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 (05:18 UTC): Claims the same.
  • РБК-Україна (05:18 UTC): Claims 1140 Russian soldiers killed, 5 tanks, 7 armored fighting vehicles, 21 artillery systems, and 2 air defense systems destroyed in the past 24 hours.
• Оперативний ЗСУ (05:22 UTC): Claims 1140 Russian soldiers killed in the past 24 hours.
• Assessment: Claims of losses.

11. CLAIM OF UKRAINIAN FORCES LEAVING KURSK (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
    • Два майора (05:28 UTC): Claims that Ukrainian forces are in a "difficult position" in the Kursk region.
    • Assessment: Suggests that there are casualties from Ukrainian forces.

Updated Situation Summary

• RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKE ON CLAIMED UKRAINIAN COMMAND POST IN HULIAIPOLE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Video evidence of a targeted strike in a populated area; target and casualty verification urgently needed.
• KRYVYI RIH ROCKET ATTACK: SIGNIFICANT CASUALTIES AND DAMAGE CONFIRMED (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): 3 dead, 31 injured (14 serious), widespread damage to civilian infrastructure.
• INTENSE RUSSIAN STRIKES ACROSS ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): 440 strikes on 8 settlements, using various weapons; no reported casualties, but significant property damage.
• CONTINUED FIGHTING ON MULTIPLE FRONTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED/REPORTED): Russian advances near Burlatske and Mala Loknia, Ukrainian counterattacks; intense fighting in Chasov Yar.
• SUMY DRONE ATTACK: CASUALTY CONFIRMED (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): One death, warehouse destroyed.
• RUSSIAN FORCES REPORTEDLY TARGETING UKRAINIAN COMMAND POST (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): Huliaipole strike reported; requires urgent verification.
• LITHUANIA EXITS CLUSTER MUNITIONS CONVENTION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Remains relevant.
• INTENSE FIGHTING NEAR CHASIV YAR (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Remains relevant.
• KHARKIV DRONE ATTACK DETAILS CONFIRMED (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Remains relevant.
• RUSSIAN FORCES TARGETING UKRAINIAN EW (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Remains relevant.
• UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF REPORTS NAVAL ACTIVITY (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Remains relevant.
• RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE INTERCEPTS DRONE OVER VORONEZH (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Remains relevant.
• MACRON WARNS OF RUSSIAN EXPANSION, ZELENSKY RESPONSE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Remains relevant.
• SOUTH KOREA/US ACCIDENTAL BOMBING (LOW PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Remains relevant.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. VERIFY HULIAIPOLE STRIKE AND ASSESS CASUALTIES/DAMAGE (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM the REPORTED STRIKE on a UKRAINIAN COMMAND POST in HULIAIPOLE.
   • Determine the number of casualties, if any, among UKRAINIAN PERSONNEL and CIVILIANS.
   • Assess the extent of damage to MILITARY INFRASTRUCTURE and CIVILIAN PROPERTY.

2. ADDRESS THE AFTERMATH OF THE KRYVYI RIH ROCKET ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • Provide immediate medical assistance to the INJURED, prioritizing those in SERIOUS CONDITION.
   • Continue rescue operations to SEARCH FOR ANY REMAINING SURVIVORS in the DAMAGED BUILDINGS.
   • Assess the long-term impact on KRYVYI RIH'S INFRASTRUCTURE and DEVELOP A RECOVERY PLAN.
   • Provide support and resources to DISPLACED CIVILIANS.

3. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT AND PREPARE FOR CONTINUED AIRSTRIKES, ESPECIALLY IN ZAPORIZHZHIA AND DNIPROPETROVSK OBLASTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • Maintain maximum alert status for ALL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS, particularly in ZAPORIZHZHIA and DNIPROPETROVSK OBLASTS, given the INTENSE RUSSIAN STRIKES.
   • Deploy additional air defense assets to these regions if possible.
   • Prioritize protection of critical infrastructure and POPULATION CENTERS.

4. INVESTIGATE SECRET MEETINGS BETWEEN TRUMP ASSOCIATES AND UKRAINIAN OPPOSITION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): Remains in effect.

5. VERIFY AND ASSESS REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR BURLATSKE AND MALA LOKNIA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy reconnaissance assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the reported RUSSIAN ADVANCES.
   • Assess the strength and capabilities of UKRAINIAN FORCES in these areas and PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL ESCALATION.

6. MONITOR THE SITUATION IN THE KURSK REGION CLOSELY (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • Gather intelligence on RUSSIAN AND UKRAINIAN ACTIVITIES in the KURSK REGION, based on CONFLICTING REPORTS.
   • Assess the potential for further escalation or CROSS-BORDER OPERATIONS.

7. ADDRESS THE AFTERMATH OF THE SUMY DRONE ATTACK (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION).

8. ANALYZE LITHUANIA'S DECISION (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Remains in effect.

9. ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS FROM PREVIOUS UPDATES REMAIN IN EFFECT AND ARE URGENTLY REINFORCED, WITH PRIORITIES ADJUSTED AS INDICATED.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND VOLATILE. The CONFIRMED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKE on a CLAIMED UKRAINIAN COMMAND POST in HULIAIPOLE and the DEVASTATING ROCKET ATTACK on KRYVYI RIH highlight the INTENSIFYING RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE. CONTINUED, INTENSE STRIKES across ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST and FIGHTING ON MULTIPLE FRONTS underscore the EXTREME PRESSURE on UKRAINIAN FORCES. IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION of REPORTED EVENTS, RAPID RESPONSE to CASUALTIES AND DAMAGE, and MAINTAINING MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE READINESS are PARAMOUNT.