Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 5, 2025, 23:31 UTC

Changes and New Information (22:53 UTC - 23:31 UTC)

1. RUSSIAN INCENDIARY MUNITIONS USE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad (23:03 UTC) shows video of Russian forces using 9M22S incendiary rockets from a BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launcher system (MLRS) against Ukrainian positions.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS the USE OF INCENDIARY MUNITIONS by RUSSIAN FORCES. The 9M22S is DESIGNED TO START FIRES and CAUSE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE. This tactic is CONSISTENT with PREVIOUS RUSSIAN OPERATIONS, aiming to DESTROY INFRASTRUCTURE and DISPLACE POPULATIONS. The use of MLRS indicates a POTENTIALLY LARGE-SCALE ATTACK. The SPECIFIC TARGET and EXTENT OF DAMAGE are UNCLEAR FROM THE VIDEO ALONE.

2. ZAPORIZHZHIA AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (23:03 UTC), citing Ivan Fedorov (Head of the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration), reports ongoing air defense activity in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. There were previous threats of drone attacks and guided bomb strikes.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS ACTIVE AIR DEFENSE OPERATIONS in ZAPORIZHZHIA. This SUPPORTS PREVIOUS REPORTS of INCREASED RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY in the REGION. It indicates an ONGOING THREAT and POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER ATTACKS.

3. FRANCE, BRITAIN, UKRAINE PEACE PLAN (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (23:07 UTC), citing Reuters, reports that France, Britain, and Ukraine are planning to finalize a "peace plan" in the coming days and present it to Trump. A European diplomat is quoted as saying, "We are considering the possibility of concluding this plan within days, not weeks."
   • Assessment: This SUGGESTS A NEW DIPLOMATIC INITIATIVE involving FRANCE, BRITAIN, AND UKRAINE. The INTENTION TO PRESENT THE PLAN TO TRUMP is SIGNIFICANT, given the CURRENT STATE OF US-UKRAINE RELATIONS. The TIMELINE ("days, not weeks") suggests URGENCY. The DETAILS OF THE PLAN are UNKNOWN, and it is UNCLEAR IF IT HAS ANY CHANCE OF SUCCESS, given PREVIOUS REPORTS of US DEMANDS FOR UKRAINIAN CONCESSIONS. RUSSIA'S REACTION is also UNCERTAIN.

4. KRYVYI RIH DEATH TOLL RISES (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Олександр Вілкул (23:09 UTC) reports that the death toll in Kryvyi Rih has risen to two, with 29 injured, 20 of whom are in serious condition. The rescue operation is ongoing.
   • Assessment: The DEATH TOLL HAS INCREASED, and the NUMBER OF INJURED REMAINS HIGH. The SERIOUS CONDITION of MANY OF THE INJURED indicates a POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER FATALITIES. The ONGOING RESCUE OPERATION suggests THERE MAY BE MORE VICTIMS.

5. DRONE ACTIVITY UPDATE (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • Николаевский Ванёк (23:12 UTC) provides a detailed update on drone locations:
     • One west of Zaporizhzhia, approaching Nikopol.
     • One heading towards Kharkiv.
     • Three in the Samara area.
     • One leaving Dnipropetrovsk region for Kirovohrad region.
     • One south of Cherkasy.
     • One east of Chuhuiv.
     • Nine from Poltava region heading towards Cherkasy region.
     • Six from Sumy region heading towards/through Poltava.
     • Eight more from Sumy region entering Poltava region.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (23:23 UTC): Reports the movement of attack UAVs:
     • Drones in Sumy region moving south and west.
     • Drones in Poltava region moving west.
     • Drones in Cherkasy region moving west.
     • Drones in Kharkiv region moving south.
     • Drones in Dnipropetrovsk region moving northwest.
     • Drones in Chernihiv region moving west.
   • Assessment: The DETAILED DRONE TRACKING shows CONTINUED WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY, with a SIGNIFICANT NUMBER moving from SUMY and POLTAVA regions TOWARDS CHERKASY. The DRONE APPROACHING NIKOPOL poses an IMMEDIATE THREAT. The DRONE HEADING TOWARDS KHARKIV indicates a CONTINUED THREAT to the CITY.

6. SUMY DRONE STRIKE (HIGH, CONFIRMED):

• РБК-Україна(23:20 UTC): Shows a video. A drone has reached a Sumy warehouse.
• Assessment: CONFIRMED STRIKE.

Updated Situation Summary

• WIDESPREAD RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACKS CONTINUE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Multiple regions remain under threat, with SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY shifting towards CHERKASY REGION. CONFIRMED DRONE STRIKE in SUMY.
• DRONE APPROACHING NIKOPOL (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): IMMEDIATE THREAT.
• DRONE HEADING TOWARDS KHARKIV (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): CONTINUED THREAT.
• KRYVYI RIH DEATH TOLL RISES TO TWO, 29 INJURED (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): RESCUE OPERATION ONGOING.
• RUSSIAN FORCES USE INCENDIARY MUNITIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): WIDESPREAD DAMAGE POTENTIAL.
• ZAPORIZHZHIA AIR DEFENSE ACTIVE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): ONGOING THREAT.
• FRANCE, BRITAIN, UKRAINE PEACE PLAN IN DEVELOPMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): URGENT DIPLOMATIC EFFORT, with UNCERTAIN PROSPECTS.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE READINESS, PRIORITIZING CHERKASY, NIKOPOL, AND KHARKIV (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • Maintain maximum alert status for ALL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS, with INCREASED FOCUS on CHERKASY REGION, due to the LARGE NUMBER OF DRONES heading in that DIRECTION.
   • Prioritize the interception of drones approaching NIKOPOL and KHARKIV.
   • Continue to track drone movements and PROVIDE REAL-TIME WARNINGS to CIVILIANS.
   • Coordinate air defense efforts across ALL AFFECTED REGIONS.

2. CONTINUE AND INTENSIFY RESCUE EFFORTS IN KRYVYI RIH (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): Same as before, with continued urgency.

3. ASSESS DAMAGE AND CASUALTIES FROM SUMY DRONE STRIKE (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy emergency response teams to the WAREHOUSE in SUMY that was STRUCK BY A DRONE.
   • Assess the extent of the damage and ANY CASUALTIES.
   • Provide medical assistance if needed.

4. INVESTIGATE RUSSIAN USE OF INCENDIARY MUNITIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • Gather evidence of the USE OF 9M22S INCENDIARY ROCKETS.
   • Document the locations where these MUNITIONS WERE USED.
   • Assess the impact on CIVILIAN POPULATIONS and INFRASTRUCTURE.
   • Consider the legal implications of the USE OF INCENDIARY WEAPONS.

5. MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS RELATED TO THE FRANCE-BRITAIN-UKRAINE PEACE PLAN (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • Gather intelligence on the DETAILS OF THE PLAN.
   • Assess the potential implications for the CONFLICT.
   • Monitor reactions from RUSSIA and the US.

6. MAINTAIN PREVIOUS RECCOMENDATIONS: Same as before.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS due to the CONTINUING WIDESPREAD RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACKS. The SHIFTING FOCUS of DRONE ACTIVITY towards CHERKASY REGION and the CONFIRMED DRONE STRIKE in SUMY are MAJOR CONCERNS. The INCREASED DEATH TOLL in KRYVYI RIH highlights the CONTINUED HUMANITARIAN COST. AIR DEFENSE READINESS, RESCUE EFFORTS, and DAMAGE ASSESSMENT remain the HIGHEST PRIORITIES.