Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 5, 2025, 20:31 UTC
Key Changes and New Information (20:01 UTC - 20:31 UTC)
CONFIRMED MISSILE STRIKE ON KRYVYI RIH, CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE HIT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Олександр Вілкул (20:12 UTC) and РБК-Україна (20:13 UTC) confirm a missile attack on Kryvyi Rih. Vilkul states, "Everything is understood, we are already working. Please maintain information hygiene."
Colonelcassad (20:24 UTC) claims the strike was carried out by an "Iskander" missile and that "problems with the light" (electricity) have begun in the city. Video shows a dark screen with Cyrillic letters.
🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (20:27 UTC) confirms the missile attack, reporting a fire and damage to civilian infrastructure. He states that people may be trapped under the rubble. He urges people to remain in safe places until the end of the alert, as the danger persists.
Оперативний ЗСУ (20:29 UTC) confirms the missile strike on civilian infrastructure, reporting a fire and the possibility of people trapped under rubble.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS THE PREVIOUS REPORT of a BALLISTIC MISSILE STRIKE targeting KRYVYI RIH. The TARGET is CONFIRMED as CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE, with a HIGH PROBABILITY OF CASUALTIES. The reported use of an "Iskander" missile (if accurate) indicates a HIGH-PRECISION STRIKE. The reported power outages suggest DAMAGE TO CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE. URGENT RESCUE AND RELIEF EFFORTS are REQUIRED.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (20:02 UTC) reports launches of guided aerial bombs by tactical aviation in Donetsk and Sumy regions.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (20:04) reports a group of enemy drones in the Black Sea in the direction of Mykolaiv region.
Николаевский Ванёк (20:09, 20:28) Updates: all 7 drones in the Black Sea heading towards Pivdenne/Pivdennyi, anti-drone operation started. No new drones reported.
Николаевский Ванёк (20:28):
1 drone west of Kramatorsk, heading southwest.
3 drones heading towards/through Poltava.
1 drone on the intersection of Poltava and Kharkiv, heading south.
1 drone from Sumy region crossing into Poltava.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED AND WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY. The MULTIPLE DRONE GROUPS approaching DIFFERENT REGIONS indicate a COORDINATED ATTACK. The TARGETING OF PIVDENNE/KOBLEVE is NOTABLE, likely targeting PORT INFRASTRUCTURE. The DRONE ACTIVITY near KRAMATORSK and in POLTAVA REGION poses a SIGNIFICANT THREAT. AIR DEFENSES should be on HIGH ALERT across ALL AFFECTED AREAS.
Colonelcassad (20:03) claims another failed Ukrainian counterattack. A Ukrainian column consisting of 3 armored vehicles and up to 30 personnel advanced from Pokrovsk towards Shevchenko. The column was attacked by FPV drone operators from the "ВТ-40" group near Belgiika. 3 armored vehicles were reportedly immobilized and destroyed, and personnel were reportedly eliminated.
Assessment: Requires confirmation, but indicates ongoing fighting.
OTHER DEVELOPMENTS:
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (20:03 UTC): Video of a White House press briefing discussing Elon Musk and Zelenskyy's attire. (Irrelevant to the immediate military situation)
Rybar (20:04) Reports a summary of the situation on the ground in Ukraine and Russia, plus other countries.
ASTRA (20:05 UTC): Claims that 2025 will be the last year of legal operation for most aircraft in the Russian fleet.
РБК-Україна (20:06) Reports Patriot missile operators supporting the F-16 pilot flash mob.
Alex Parker Returns (20:09): Reports about dancer Sergei Polunin. (Irrelevant to the immediate military situation)
Два майора (20:09): Comments on the US's involvement in the conflict.
Fighterbomber (20:10): Suggests taking advantage of the current situation to improve the negotiating background.
Colonelcassad (20:14) Claims of Ukrainian casualties.
Старше Эдды (20:15): Discusses the impact of US intelligence sharing cuts and Starlink disconnection on the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
РБК-Україна (20:17): Reports that the US is conducting secret negotiations with Hamas.
НгП раZVедка (20:18): Reports on the quiet situation.
OperativeZSU (20:20) Reports Patriot missile operators expressing thanks to the USA.
MoD Russia (20:21) Publishes the top news today.
ASTRA (20:20): Celebrates the 3rd anniversary of the publication, asks its staff why they work there.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (20:24): Reports a Russian citizen was mobilized into the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Alex Parker Returns (20:30): Comments on Macron's address.
Updated Situation Summary
CONFIRMED MISSILE STRIKE ON KRYVYI RIH, CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE HIT, POTENTIAL CASUALTIES (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):CONFIRMED BALLISTIC MISSILE STRIKE, likely using an "Iskander" missile. CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGED, FIRE REPORTED, POTENTIAL FOR PEOPLE TRAPPED UNDER RUBBLE. URGENT RESCUE EFFORTS NEEDED. POWER OUTAGES REPORTED.
WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY, MULTIPLE TARGETS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):MULTIPLE DRONE GROUPS approaching DIFFERENT REGIONS, indicating a COORDINATED ATTACK. PIVDENNE/KOBLEVE likely targeted (port infrastructure). DRONE ACTIVITY near KRAMATORSK and in POLTAVA and MYKOLAIV REGIONS.
CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY, EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN DIRECTIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):REMAINS UNCHANGED.
REPORTED U.S. INTELLIGENCE CUT-OFF FOR HIMARS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED):REMAINS UNCHANGED.
RUSSIAN COMBINED STRIKE ACROSS UKRAINE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):REMAINS UNCHANGED.
MACRON: STRONG STANCE AGAINST RUSSIA, PLANS FOR EUROPEAN DEFENSE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):REMAINS UNCHANGED.
U.S. AID PAUSE IS A "REVIEW" (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):REMAINS UNCHANGED.
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
Continue warnings to CIVILIAN POPULATIONS in KRYVYI RIH and POTENTIALLY AFFECTED AREAS.
Deploy search and rescue teams to LOCATE AND EXTRACT any individuals TRAPPED UNDER RUBBLE.
Provide immediate medical assistance to ANY INJURED.
Assess damage to CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, particularly POWER GRID, and INITIATE REPAIRS.
Investigate the type of missile used and LAUNCH LOCATION to IMPROVE FUTURE DEFENSE.
MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR AIR AND DRONE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
Maintain highest alert status for ALL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS across UKRAINE, with PARTICULAR FOCUS on ODESA REGION (ESPECIALLY PIVDENNE/KOBLEVE), SUMY REGION, EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN FRONTLINE AREAS, MYKOLAIV REGION, AND KRYVYI RIH.
Coordinate air defense efforts across ALL AFFECTED REGIONS to ENSURE MAXIMUM COVERAGE.
Specifically address the DRONE THREATS to PIVDENNE/KOBLEVE, KRAMATORSK, AND POLTAVA REGION.
URGENTLY VERIFY REPORT OF U.S. INTELLIGENCE CUT-OFF FOR HIMARS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):REMAINS UNCHANGED.
MONITOR FRENCH ACTIONS AND STATEMENTS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):REMAINS UNCHANGED.
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND RAPIDLY EVOLVING. The CONFIRMED MISSILE STRIKE ON KRYVYI RIH and the CONTINUED WIDESPREAD DRONE ACTIVITY across MULTIPLE REGIONS represent IMMEDIATE AND CRITICAL THREATS. RAPID RESPONSE, ACCURATE INFORMATION GATHERING, ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES, AND CLOSE COORDINATION WITH ALLIES remain ESSENTIAL. The POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT CIVILIAN CASUALTIES in KRYVYI RIH is HIGH.
