Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 5, 2025, 19:01 UTC

Changes and New Information (18:31 UTC - 19:01 UTC)

1. CONTINUED SHELLING IN DONBAS, BELGOROD, AND KHERSON REGIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Басурин о главном (18:31 UTC) reports continued heavy shelling by Ukrainian forces in Donetsk People's Republic (DPR), Belgorod, and Kherson regions. Specific incidents include:
     • Gorlovka (DPR): Multiple civilian casualties, damage to residential areas, infrastructure, and vehicles, use of FPV drones. Power outage reported. Over 925 vehicles damaged/destroyed in Gorlovka since the start of the "Special Military Operation" (SMO), many targeted by drones.
     • Makeevka (DPR): Interception of a Switchblade-600 drone over a residential area.
     • Nova Kakhovka (Kherson region): Drone attack damaged cars and a food truck, one male injured.
     • Aleshki (Kherson region): Artillery shelling, one male injured.
     • Bekhtery (Kherson region): One civilian killed, three injured, damage to a cell tower.
     • Kostogryzovo forestry (Kherson region): Drone attack on a fire truck and other vehicles, no casualties reported.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of INTENSE FIGHTING and TARGETING OF CIVILIAN AREAS. The SPECIFIC DETAILS on CASUALTIES AND DAMAGE provide FURTHER EVIDENCE of the HUMANITARIAN IMPACT. The REPORT OF A SWITCHBLADE-600 INTERCEPTION is NOTABLE, suggesting RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY. The REPORTED TARGETING OF A FOOD TRUCK and FORESTRY VEHICLES raises CONCERNS ABOUT POTENTIAL WAR CRIMES.

2. RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR POKROVSK, FIGHTING NEAR SHEVCHENKO (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (18:57 UTC) reports a Ukrainian counterattack near Pokrovsk, with a breakthrough to the outskirts of Shevchenko. Claims that Russian forces ("Отважные" group) are engaging in combat, clearing buildings, and interrogating captured Ukrainian soldiers from the "Skala" battalion.
   • Assessment: This SUGGESTS A SHIFT IN THE BATTLEFIELD DYNAMICS near POKROVSK. The REPORTED UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACK AND BREAKTHROUGH to SHEVCHENKO indicate INTENSE FIGHTING and a POTENTIALLY CHANGING FRONT LINE. VERIFICATION IS CRITICAL, as this is a RUSSIAN SOURCE. The CLAIM OF DEFEATING THE "SKALA" BATTALION needs INDEPENDENT CONFIRMATION.

3. RUSSIAN COMBINED STRIKE ON UKRAINE, MARCH 5 (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (18:54 UTC) provides a summary of a combined Russian strike on Ukraine during the night of March 5th.
   • Odessa Oblast: Strikes on Sergeyevka, Belgorod-Dnestrovsky, Chernomorsk, Malaya Dolina, and Sovinyon (suburb of Odessa). Targeted infrastructure includes:
     • Sovinyon: 110 kV substation.
     • Chernomorsk: Port (possible military cargo).
     • Malaya Dolina: Ship repair base.
     • Belgorod-Dnestrovsky: Unspecified target, but the area is noted for its use by Ukrainian forces for drone attacks on southern Russia.
     • Sergeyevka: Sanatorium (claimed to house GUR units in 2023-2024).
   • Boryspil: Geran drones, logistic and oil objects, rail station, stores.
   • Kharkov: Tractor plant (claimed to be used for weapon and military equipment repair).
   • Varash (Rivne Oblast): Fire reported near the Rivne Nuclear Power Plant, cause unknown.
   • Pavlograd: "Iskander-M" ballistic missile strike on a mechanical plant (claimed to be involved in missile and rocket system assembly). Extent of damage unknown.
   • Assessment: CONFIRMS PREVIOUS REPORTS of the STRIKES, providing GREATER DETAIL on TARGETS AND LOCATIONS. The FOCUS ON INFRASTRUCTURE, particularly ENERGY AND LOGISTICS, is CONSISTENT with a RUSSIAN STRATEGY of DEGRADING UKRAINIAN WARFIGHTING CAPABILITY. The REPORT OF A STRIKE ON A SANATORIUM allegedly USED BY GUR is SIGNIFICANT. The FIRE NEAR THE RIVNE NPP is CONCERNING and REQUIRES INVESTIGATION. The CONFIRMATION OF AN "ISKANDER-M" STRIKE on PAVLOGRAD highlights the USE OF PRECISION-GUIDED MUNITIONS.

4. RUSSIAN CLAIMS ABOUT IMPROVISED MLRS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad (18:47 UTC) showed an RBU-6000 installed on a Ural truck, claiming the "Wolves" used this modification to "nightmare" the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
   • Assessment: Shows the adaptation of Russian equipment.

5. CLAIM OF LIQUIDATION OF UKRAINIAN SPIES (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Alex Parker Returns (18:50) released a video of killing the infiltrators who "worked at the front line" and were caught.
     • Assessment: Russian propaganda.

6. UKRAINIAN CLAIMS ABOUT DRONE UNITS (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (18:52 UTC) presented a promotional photo of a soldier with a call to join the 9th Separate Brigade of Unmanned Systems.
   • Assessment: The message is aimed at the Ukrainian audience.

7. RUSSIAN SUMMARY OF THE SITUATION ON THE FRONTLINE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника (19:01 UTC) reports the following: * Dzerzhinsk direction: Ukrainian troops counterattacking south-west of the Toretskaya mine waste heap. * Kursk Region: Russian forces eliminated a large Ukrainian stronghold south of Sudzha. * Zaporizhzhia direction: Russian air force and artillery attacks, Ukrainian drone activity. * Kharkiv region: Russian attacks in the Volchansk and Liptsy directions. * Slavyansk: Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian communications point. * Sinelnikovo district (Dnipropetrovsk region): Construction of fortifications.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of FIGHTING ON MULTIPLE FRONTS. The SPECIFIC LOCATIONS AND CLAIMS of RUSSIAN SUCCESSES need INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION.

Updated Situation Summary

• POTENTIAL CRIPPLING OF UKRAINIAN HIMARS CAPABILITY (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED/CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES): REMAINS THE MOST CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT.
• INCREASED REPORTS OF RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED/CONFIRMED): CONFIRMED by MULTIPLE SOURCES. TARGETING of INFRASTRUCTURE in ODESSA OBLAST and BORYSPIL.
• IMMINENT DRONE THREAT TO KHARKOV (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): NO CHANGE from previous reports.
• CONFIRMED UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES ON RUSSIAN OIL INFRASTRUCTURE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): NO CHANGE from previous reports.
• CONTINUED FIGHTING ON MULTIPLE FRONTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): INTENSE FIGHTING reported in GORLOVKA, MAKEEVKA, KHERSON REGION, and near POKROVSK. REPORTS of a UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACK near SHEVCHENKO.
• RUSSIAN COMBINED STRIKE ACROSS UKRAINE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Targeting infrastructure (substations, port, logistic hubs) and military objects.
• TRUMP'S TOUGHER STANCE ON RARE EARTH DEAL (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): NO CHANGE from previous reports.
• UKRAINIAN MILITARY TRAINING IN UK CONTINUES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): NO CHANGE from previous reports.
• RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF READINESS FOR WAR WITH CHINA (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED): NO CHANGE from previous reports.
• UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKE ON RUSSIAN BOAT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): NO CHANGE from previous reports.
• RUSSIAN REPORTS ON US-UKRAINE RELATIONS (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED): NO CHANGE from previous reports.
• RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF IMPROVISED MLRS (MEDIUM PRIORITY): NO CHANGE.
• CLAIM OF LIQUIDATION OF UKRAINIAN SPIES (LOW PRIORITY): NO CHANGE.
• UKRAINIAN CLAIMS ABOUT DRONE UNITS (LOW PRIORITY): NO CHANGE.

Updated Recommendations

1. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT, WITH THE FOLLOWING ADDITIONS AND MODIFICATIONS:

   • ADDRESSING POTENTIAL HIMARS DISRUPTION REMAINS THE TOP PRIORITY (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION).
   • AIR DEFENSES IN KHARKOV REMAIN ON HIGH ALERT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION).
   • VERIFY AND ASSESS REPORTED DRONE STRIKES IN BORYSPIL (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION).
   • INVESTIGATE AND RESPOND TO SYZRAN OIL REFINERY ATTACK (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION).

2. VERIFY AND ASSESS REPORTS OF UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACK NEAR POKROVSK (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • DEPLOY RECONNAISSANCE ASSETS to CONFIRM the REPORTED UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACK and BREAKTHROUGH near SHEVCHENKO.
   • ASSESS THE EXTENT OF UKRAINIAN ADVANCES and the CURRENT FRONT LINE.
   • DETERMINE RUSSIAN FORCE DISPOSITIONS and POTENTIAL VULNERABILITIES.

3. INVESTIGATE AND ASSESS RUSSIAN COMBINED STRIKE (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • GATHER INTELLIGENCE on the EXTENT OF DAMAGE to TARGETED INFRASTRUCTURE in ODESSA OBLAST, BORYSPIL, KHARKIV, AND PAVLOGRAD.
   • ASSESS THE IMPACT on UKRAINIAN MILITARY CAPABILITY and CIVILIAN LIFE.
   • INVESTIGATE THE REPORTED FIRE near the RIVNE NUCLEAR POWER PLANT and DETERMINE THE CAUSE AND POTENTIAL RISKS.

4. MONITOR AND RESPOND TO CONTINUED SHELLING IN DONBAS, BELGOROD, AND KHERSON REGIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT for AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS in AFFECTED AREAS.
   • PROVIDE IMMEDIATE ASSISTANCE to CIVILIAN POPULATIONS, including MEDICAL CARE, SHELTER, AND EVACUATION IF NECESSARY.
   • GATHER EVIDENCE of POTENTIAL WAR CRIMES, including the TARGETING OF CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE AND VEHICLES.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND VOLATILE. The POTENTIAL LOSS OF HIMARS TARGETING DATA, the CONTINUED RUSSIAN AERIAL OFFENSIVE, and the INTENSE FIGHTING ON MULTIPLE FRONTS pose SIGNIFICANT THREATS to UKRAINE. The REPORTED UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACK near POKROVSK could SIGNAL A SHIFT IN THE BATTLEFIELD DYNAMICS. RAPID INFORMATION GATHERING, VERIFICATION OF REPORTS, AND ADAPTIVE MILITARY STRATEGIES are ESSENTIAL.