Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 5, 2025, 16:01 UTC
Changes and New Information (15:31 UTC - 16:01 UTC)
US HALTS ALL INTELLIGENCE SHARING WITH UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
ТАСС (15:57 UTC), РБК-Україна (15:40 UTC), ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (15:47 UTC), Дневник Десантника (15:41 UTC, citing Sky News), Два майора (15:48 UTC, citing Sky News and Fox News), Оперативний ЗСУ (15:28 UTC) all report that the US has COMPLETELY HALTED intelligence sharing with Ukraine. Previous reports suggested a PARTIAL halt, limited to information about strikes INSIDE Russia. The new reports indicate a TOTAL CESSATION. Два майора claims that since 2022, "actual satellite imagery showing our troop positions in detail, within a few hours, went through all [Ukrainian] headquarters and ended up with enemy artillerymen and UAV operators."
Assessment: This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT with EXTREME IMPLICATIONS for UKRAINIAN MILITARY OPERATIONS. The LOSS OF US INTELLIGENCE will SEVERELY LIMIT Ukraine's ability to TRACK RUSSIAN FORCES, ANTICIPATE ATTACKS, and CONDUCT EFFECTIVE OPERATIONS. This SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES THE RISK to UKRAINIAN FORCES and CIVILIANS. The MOTIVATION behind the US decision REQUIRES IMMEDIATE CLARIFICATION. It COULD BE LINKED to PRESSURE FOR NEGOTIATIONS (as previously reported) or OTHER FACTORS. Dnevnik Desantnika claims intelligence sharing will continue with "closest allies," potentially including NATO members.
REPORTS ON MILITARY REGISTRATION OF 14-YEAR-OLDS DEEMED FAKE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):
РБК-Україна (15:34 UTC, 15:55 UTC) reports that the information about a draft law for military registration of 14-year-olds is LIKELY FAKE. MP Oleksandr Fediyenko states that the relevant committee is NOT working on such a project, and it is "legally dubious." MP Maxim Savrasov claims he DID NOT GIVE the reported interview. РБК-Україна (15:42 UTC) cites David Arakhamia stating his faction is unaware of the initiative and WOULD NOT SUPPORT it.
Assessment: This SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCES the likelihood of IMMEDIATE action on this issue. It appears to be DISINFORMATION, possibly INTENDED TO SOW DISCORD or UNDERMINE PUBLIC TRUST. However, the UNDERLYING CONCERN about LONG-TERM MANPOWER in Ukraine REMAINS VALID.
RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF ADVANCE NEAR KONSTANTINOPOL (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Дневник Десантника (15:41 UTC) claims Russian forces are attempting to ENCIRCLE Ukrainian positions near KONSTANTINOPOL, advancing from ANDREEVKA, ULAKLY, and the SOUTHEAST. Claims Ukrainian forces are TRYING TO HOLD the village, and that Russian UAV operators are TARGETING UKRAINIAN MOVEMENTS and DISRUPTING ROTATION AND SUPPLY. Claims Russian artillery is targeting Ukrainian TEMPORARY DEPLOYMENT POINTS.
Assessment: This REPORTS SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN PRESSURE on KONSTANTINOPOL. The claim of ENCIRCLEMENT ATTEMPTS is SERIOUS. The REPORTED USE OF UAVS AND ARTILLERY to TARGET UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS is consistent with RUSSIAN TACTICS. URGENT VERIFICATION is REQUIRED.
RUSSIAN STRIKE ON SUBSTATION NEAR ODESSA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Дневник Десантника (15:47) claims that the Russian Armed Forces struck the Chernomorka 110kV Substation in Sauvignon, Odessa region.
Assessment: This will disrupt the rail and port infrastructure.
RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF SUCCESSFUL COUNTERATTACK NEAR SHCHERBINOVKA-DZERZHINSK (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, VIDEO):
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (15:47 UTC) claims a Ukrainian counterattack near Shcherbinovka-Dzerzhinsk FAILED. Claims Ukrainian forces used 4 armored vehicles (M-113s and "Kazak" armored cars) attacking from the northwest and southwest. Claims Russian UAV operators detected the attack, leading to artillery strikes that destroyed the vehicles and personnel.
Assessment: This is a RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE claiming a MAJOR UKRAINIAN SETBACK. The REPORTED LOSS OF MULTIPLE VEHICLES AND PERSONNEL is SIGNIFICANT. REQUIRES INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION. The VIDEO EVIDENCE needs analysis.
REPORTED DECREASE IN RUSSIAN ASSAULT ACTIONS IN POKROVSK DIRECTION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, GRAPH):
✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (15:48 UTC) reports a CONTINUED DECREASE in Russian assault actions in the POKROVSK DIRECTION, with a new minimum of 17 clashes on March 4th. Presents a graph showing a declining trend. Claims Russia is STILL INTRODUCING NEW UNITS, citing an example of a fresh unit deployed to Novovasylivka for assaults on Uspenivka, with reported casualties.
Assessment: The REPORTED DECREASE IN ASSAULT ACTIONS could indicate SEVERAL POSSIBILITIES: RUSSIAN FORCES REGROUPING, SHIFTING FOCUS, EXPERIENCING SUPPLY/PERSONNEL ISSUES, or UKRAINIAN DEFENSES PROVING EFFECTIVE. The CONTINUED INTRODUCTION OF NEW UNITS suggests RUSSIA INTENDS TO MAINTAIN PRESSURE in the area.
RUSSIAN ARTILLERY AND DRONE STRIKES ON UKRAINIAN POSITIONS IN POKROVSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, VIDEO):
Colonelcassad (15:47 UTC) reports Russian artillery and drones from the "Center" group targeting a Ukrainian 32nd Mechanized Brigade shelter in a hangar in the Pokrovsk direction.
Assessment: The video REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE REPORTS RUSSIAN GUIDED BOMB LAUNCHES IN KHARKIV REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (15:41 UTC) reports launches of GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS by Russian tactical aviation in the KHARKIV REGION.
Assessment: This INDICATES CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY and THREATS TO KHARKIV. AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS should be at HIGH ALERT.
UKRAINIAN FORCES DESTROY RUSSIAN EQUIPMENT AND PERSONNEL IN SIVERSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, VIDEO):
STERNENKO(15:40 UTC) reports that Ukrainian forces on the Siversk direction destroyed one Russian BMP, damaged another, and killed at least three Russian soldiers.
Assessment: The destruction of the military vehicles and personnel can help Ukraine's position in this area.
UKRAINIAN PROSECUTOR GENERAL REPORTS ON RUSSIAN ATTACKS IN KHERSON REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Офіс Генерального прокурора(15:45) Reports two dead and several injured in a Russian attack in Kherson region.
Assessment: These events took place at 02:00, so they are confirmed.
OTHER REPORTS (LOW/NO MILITARY RELEVANCE):
ТАСС (15:32 UTC): Reports on Trump administration's direct negotiations with Hamas. NO DIRECT IMPACT ON UKRAINE.
ASTRA (15:34 UTC): Reports on sentencing of individuals for planning to arson a Putin election headquarters. NO DIRECT IMPACT.
Оперативний ЗСU (15:37, 15:55) Reports on discussions by Yermak. NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT.
Alex Parker Returns (15:38 UTC): Advertisement for a gambling app. NO MILITARY RELEVANCE.
Север.Реалии (15:40 UTC): Reports on plans to build a monument to COVID-19 victims in St. Petersburg. NO MILITARY RELEVANCE.
ТАСС (15:45 UTC): Reports on an experimental passenger train from Beijing to Moscow. NO MILITARY RELEVANCE.
МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ I Новости I Срочники(15:49) Claims an individual avoided jail time by serving in the war. NO DIRECT IMPACT.
Zelenskiy / Official (15:50 UTC): Reports on a conversation with the Prime Minister of Slovenia. NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT.
WarGonzo(15:50) Reports on an interview with a Russian fighter. NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT.
🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦(15:51) Reports on recruitment efforts in Ukraine. NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT.
ТАСС (15:52): Reports on potential new traffic regulations. NO MILITARY RELEVANCE.
Mash на Донбассе(15:56) Reports on teenagers exploding a grenade inside a car. NO DIRECT IMPACT.
Updated Situation Summary
US HALTS ALL INTELLIGENCE SHARING WITH UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): This is a MAJOR BLOW to UKRAINIAN MILITARY CAPABILITIES and SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES THE RISK to UKRAINIAN FORCES AND CIVILIANS.
REPORTS OF MILITARY REGISTRATION OF 14-YEAR-OLDS DEEMED FAKE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):DISINFORMATION attempt, but UNDERLYING MANPOWER CONCERNS REMAIN.
INTENSE FIGHTING CONTINUES, MULTIPLE FRONTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Reports of RUSSIAN PRESSURE on KONSTANTINOPOL (with potential encirclement attempts), FAILED UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACK near SHCHERBINOVKA-DZERZHINSK, and CONTINUED FIGHTING in the POKROVSK DIRECTION (with a reported decrease in Russian assault actions, but continued introduction of new units).
RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES AND ARTILLERY CONTINUE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):GUIDED BOMB LAUNCHES reported in KHARKIV REGION. Reports of RUSSIAN ARTILLERY AND DRONE STRIKES on UKRAINIAN POSITIONS in the POKROVSK DIRECTION.
RUSSIAN FORCES CONTINUE ARTILLERY OPERATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Specifically by the Yug Group of Forces and the "Center" group.
SEEK IMMEDIATE CLARIFICATION FROM US ON INTELLIGENCE SHARING HALT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Urgently engage with US OFFICIALS at the HIGHEST LEVELS to UNDERSTAND THE REASONS behind the COMPLETE CESSATION OF INTELLIGENCE SHARING.
Determine the duration of the halt and ANY CONDITIONS for its RESUMPTION.
Explore all possible avenues to MITIGATE THE IMPACT of this decision, including SEEKING ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF INTELLIGENCE from ALLIED NATIONS.
Emphasize the dire consequences of this decision for UKRAINIAN DEFENSE CAPABILITIES and CIVILIAN SAFETY.
ADJUST MILITARY STRATEGY AND TACTICS TO ACCOUNT FOR LOSS OF US INTELLIGENCE (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Immediately reassess all CURRENT DEPLOYMENTS AND OPERATIONS in light of the LOSS OF US INTELLIGENCE.
Increase reliance on HUMAN INTELLIGENCE (HUMINT), SIGNAL INTELLIGENCE (SIGINT), and UKRAINIAN DRONE RECONNAISSANCE.
Enhance operational security (OPSEC) to MINIMIZE VULNERABILITIES due to REDUCED SITUATIONAL AWARENESS.
Prioritize defensive operations and CONSOLIDATE POSITIONS where possible.
Develop contingency plans for RAPID RESPONSE to UNFORESEEN RUSSIAN ADVANCES.
VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES AND FIGHTING NEAR KONSTANTINOPOL AND SHCHERBINOVKA-DZERZHINSK (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Deploy reconnaissance assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES and ENCIRCLEMENT ATTEMPTS near KONSTANTINOPOL.
Gather intelligence on RUSSIAN FORCES in the area to ASSESS THEIR STRENGTH AND INTENT.
Prepare for potential counterattacks or REINFORCEMENTS to STABILIZE THE SITUATION.
Verify the REPORTED FAILED UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACK near SHCHERBINOVKA-DZERZHINSK and ASSESS LOSSES.
ASSESS REPORTED DECREASE IN RUSSIAN ASSAULT ACTIONS IN POKROVSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, INTELLIGENCE GATHERING):
Continue to monitor the situation in the POKROVSK DIRECTION to DETERMINE THE REASONS behind the REPORTED DECREASE IN RUSSIAN ASSAULT ACTIONS.
Gather intelligence on RUSSIAN FORCE DISPOSITIONS AND MOVEMENTS to IDENTIFY ANY POTENTIAL SHIFTS IN STRATEGY.
Maintain a high state of readiness in the area, as RUSSIA CONTINUES TO INTRODUCE NEW UNITS.
MAINTAIN EXTREME AIR DEFENSE READINESS, PRIORITIZE KHARKIV REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):
Maintain highest alert status for ALL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS, with INCREASED FOCUS on the KHARKIV REGION due to REPORTED GUIDED BOMB LAUNCHES.
ADDRESS DISINFORMATION ABOUT MILITARY REGISTRATION OF 14-YEAR-OLDS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, PUBLIC COMMUNICATION):
Continue to publicly refute the FALSE REPORTS about MILITARY REGISTRATION OF 14-YEAR-OLDS.
Emphasize the government's commitment to TRANSPARENCY and ACCURATE INFORMATION.
Counter any attempts to EXPLOIT THIS DISINFORMATION for PROPAGANDA PURPOSES.
MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation is EXTREMELY GRAVE due to the COMPLETE CESSATION OF US INTELLIGENCE SHARING. This SINGLE DEVELOPMENT has MAJOR IMPLICATIONS for UKRAINIAN MILITARY CAPABILITIES and REQUIRES IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION. The CONTINUED FIGHTING ON MULTIPLE FRONTS and the PERSISTENT THREAT OF RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES further COMPOUND THE CHALLENGES. RAPID ADAPTATION, RESOURCEFULNESS, AND STRONG ALLIED COORDINATION (ESPECIALLY WITH NON-US ALLIES) are MORE CRITICAL THAN EVER.
