Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 4, 2025, 17:51 UTC

Changes and New Information (17:22 UTC - 17:51 UTC)

1. MIKE WALTZ ON BIDEN ADMINSTRATION'S USE OF RUSSIA AS AN INTERMEDIARY (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, US SOURCE):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (17:22 UTC) features an image of a Mike Waltz tweet accusing the Biden Administration of using Russia as an intermediary with Iran. The tweet criticizes Democrats and asserts Iranian responsibility for American deaths.
   • Assessment: This is POLITICAL POSTURING and INFORMATION WARFARE from a US REPUBLICAN POLITICIAN. It is NOT DIRECTLY RELATED to the MILITARY SITUATION IN UKRAINE, but it highlights US POLITICAL DIVISIONS regarding FOREIGN POLICY and RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA AND IRAN. It does reflect a potential undercurrent of pro-Russian alignment in the Republican party.

2. SERGEANT'S ROLE IN "HARTIA" BRIGADE (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (17:22 UTC) reports on the role of sergeants in the "Hartia" Brigade's artillery division, emphasizing their leadership, mentorship, and training roles.
   • Assessment: This DOES NOT SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER the IMMEDIATE MILITARY SITUATION, but it highlights UKRAINIAN EFFORTS to IMPROVE MILITARY LEADERSHIP AND TRAINING.

3. ARGENTINA'S MILEI DELETES PHOTOS WITH ZELENSKY (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (17:23 UTC) reports that Argentine President Milei deleted photos with Zelensky from his social media account after Zelensky's conflict with Trump.
   • Assessment: This is SYMBOLIC and indicates a POTENTIAL SHIFT IN ARGENTINA'S STANCE towards Ukraine, likely influenced by US POLITICAL PRESSURE. It DOES NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT the MILITARY SITUATION, but it is RELEVANT TO THE BROADER GEOPOLITICAL CONTEXT and UKRAINE'S INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT.

4. RUSSIA AIMING FOR ENTIRE KHERSON OBLAST, CONDUCTING "SUICIDAL MISSIONS" (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, THE GUARDIAN):

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (17:24 UTC) cites The Guardian, reporting that Russia aims to claim the entire Kherson Oblast before peace negotiations, sending troops on high-risk missions to establish a foothold on the Dnipro River.
   • Assessment: This reinforces PREVIOUS REPORTS of INTENSE FIGHTING in the KHERSON REGION. The claim of "SUICIDAL MISSIONS" suggests HIGH RUSSIAN CASUALTIES and a WILLINGNESS TO ACCEPT HEAVY LOSSES to ACHIEVE STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES before potential negotiations. This is CRITICAL for UKRAINIAN DEFENSE PLANNING in the KHERSON AREA.

5. GERMANY'S GAS STORAGE LOW, GOVERNMENT SILENT (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED):

   • Рыбарь (17:24 UTC) reports that German gas storage levels are low and the government is not commenting.
   • Assessment: This DOES NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT the MILITARY SITUATION IN UKRAINE, but it highlights POTENTIAL ENERGY VULNERABILITIES in EUROPE, which could INDIRECTLY AFFECT long-term support for Ukraine.

6. UKRAINIAN 110TH BRIGADE DESTROYS RUSSIAN VEHICLES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (17:29 UTC) shows a video of the 110th Brigade's drone unit destroying several Russian vehicles in an unspecified village.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS continued UKRAINIAN DRONE WARFARE CAPABILITIES and EFFECTIVENESS. The video provides VISUAL EVIDENCE of RUSSIAN EQUIPMENT LOSSES.

7. RUSSIAN COMMENT ON ZELENSKY'S PEACE PROPOSAL (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Старше Эдды (17:30 UTC) dismisses Zelensky's proposal to cease missile and drone strikes as a trick, suggesting Russia should increase such attacks.
   • Assessment: This is RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA and reflects RUSSIA'S REJECTION of ZELENSKY'S TERMS. It highlights RUSSIA'S INTENTION to CONTINUE its AGGRESSIVE MILITARY CAMPAIGN.

8. RUSSIAN OPERATIONS IN KHARKIV OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (17:29 UTC) claims Russian forces conducted a complex strike against two Ukrainian combat groups, a fuel depot, and a satellite communication system near Liptsy. Claims clearing of eastern outskirts of Volchansk. Claims destruction of Ukrainian drone control point, mortar team, and six combat groups with armored vehicles.
   • Assessment: This represents CONTINUED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS in KHARKIV OBLAST. The claimed targets and successes, IF CONFIRMED, would represent SIGNIFICANT BLOWS to UKRAINIAN DEFENSES AND LOGISTICS in the region. This REQUIRES VERIFICATION.

• Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (17:34 UTC) reports Russian forces crossing the border in Kharkiv Oblast, near Nekhoteevka.
  • Assessment: Requires verification.

9. RUSSIAN POLL ON EU PERCEPTION (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Kotsnews (17:30 UTC) shows a poll where 32% of respondents view the EU as a "hyena."
   • Assessment: This is RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA intended to UNDERMINE PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR THE EU. It DOES NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT the MILITARY SITUATION.

10. RUSSIAN COMMENT ON ISRAELI FOREIGN MINISTER'S LACK OF AWARENESS OF BANDERA GLORIFICATION (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • ТАСС (17:31 UTC) features Maria Zakharova expressing surprise at the Israeli Foreign Minister's claimed ignorance of the glorification of Stepan Bandera in Ukraine.
    • Assessment: This is RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA intended to EXPLOIT HISTORICAL SENSITIVITIES and DAMAGE RELATIONS BETWEEN UKRAINE AND ISRAEL.

11. POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN ATTEMPTED INCURSION NEAR SUDZHA, KURSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • НгП раZVедка (17:31 UTC) claims Ukraine is accumulating forces for a possible incursion attempt northeast of Sudzha, Kursk Oblast, aiming to demonstrate combat capability. Claims main supply road is under Russian fire control.
    • Assessment: This is A SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. A UKRAINIAN INCURSION into RUSSIAN TERRITORY would be a MAJOR ESCALATION. The claim of the supply road being under RUSSIAN FIRE CONTROL suggests a HIGH-RISK OPERATION for UKRAINE. This REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION AND MONITORING.

12. "TWO MAJORS" DRONE PRODUCTION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Два майора (17:35 UTC) presents a video on "Two Majors" drone production, showcasing co-axial FPV drones.
    • Assessment: This is evidence of ongoing Russian efforts to boost domestic drone production.

13. ARMENIA MUST CHOOSE BETWEEN EU AND EAEU (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • ТАСС (17:38 UTC) reports that the Russian ambassador to Armenia stated that Armenia cannot be a member of both the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).
    • Assessment: This is RUSSIAN POLITICAL PRESSURE on ARMENIA. It DOES NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT the MILITARY SITUATION IN UKRAINE, but it highlights RUSSIAN EFFORTS to MAINTAIN ITS SPHERE OF INFLUENCE.

14. FINNISH COMMENT ON ZELENSKY (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED):

• Janus Putkonen - Uutisia ja kuulumisia - SÄHKEET/TIEDOTTEET (MV-Lehti & Verkkomedia) (17:38 UTC) reports on Zelensky's actions at the White House.
• Assessment: No change to military situation.

15. STERNENKO ON POTENTIAL LOSS OF US SUPPORT (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • STERNENKO (17:40 UTC) acknowledges the potential loss of US support, emphasizing the need for domestic support.
    • Assessment: This reflects UKRAINIAN CONCERNS about RELIANCE ON US AID and the NEED FOR SELF-RELIANCE.

16. EUTELSAT NEGOTIATING WITH EU FOR UKRAINE INTERNET ACCESS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, REUTERS):

    • Оперативний ЗСУ (17:41 UTC), citing Reuters, reports that Eutelsat is negotiating with the EU to provide additional internet access to Ukraine, potentially replacing Starlink.
    • Assessment: This is SIGNIFICANT. It indicates EFFORTS TO DIVERSIFY UKRAINE'S INTERNET ACCESS and REDUCE RELIANCE ON STARLINK, which is VULNERABLE TO US POLITICAL DECISIONS. This could IMPROVE UKRAINIAN COMMUNICATIONS RESILIENCE.

17. CANADA-US TRADE WAR (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED):

• Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (17:43 UTC) states that the US has declared a trade war against Canada.
• Assessment: No change to the situation.

18. RUSSIAN STRELA-10 DESTROYS UKRAINIAN LELEKA DRONE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • MoD Russia (17:45 UTC) reports a Strela-10 SAM system destroying a Ukrainian Leleka drone in the Krasnoarmeysk direction.
    • Assessment: This CONFIRMS continued RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY and UKRAINIAN DRONE OPERATIONS. It indicates ONGOING ATTRITION of UKRAINIAN DRONE ASSETS.

19. RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN BOROVSKOYE DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Военкор Котенок (17:45 UTC) reports Russian advances along the Oskol River towards Boguslavka, with up to 1.5 km gains on a 6.5 km front. Claims Russian forces are committing reserves and focusing on Zagryzovo-Borovaya-Izyum.
    • Assessment: This represents CONTINUED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE PRESSURE in this area. The claimed COMMITMENT OF RESERVES suggests RUSSIA IS PRIORITIZING THIS AXIS. This REQUIRES VERIFICATION.

20. SITUATION AROUND VOLCHANSK (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 (17:47 UTC) shares a video about the situation around Volchansk, Ukrainian defense efforts, and drone usage.
    • Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of FIGHTING in the VOLCHANSK AREA.

21. US VICE PRESIDENT VANCE STATEMENTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (17:48 UTC) quotes US Vice President Vance stating that neither Europe, the US, nor Ukraine can continue the conflict, emphasizing the need for negotiations. Also states that Ukraine must take real steps for settlement, and that the US will not tolerate nuclear proliferation.
    • Assessment: This reinforces PREVIOUS REPORTS of a POTENTIAL SHIFT IN US POLICY towards PRESSURING UKRAINE to NEGOTIATE. The statement on NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION is likely directed at IRAN, not Ukraine.

22. RUSSIAN OPERATIONS NEAR DVURECHNAYA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Военкор Котенок (17:48 UTC) reports Russian operations to connect the Dvurechensky bridgehead and the bridgehead near Topoli, attacking from Figolevka towards Krasnoye Pervoye and from Topoli towards Kamenka. Claims Russian forces are breaking through Ukrainian defenses towards Kondrashovka, a key supply route.
    • Assessment: This describes SPECIFIC RUSSIAN TACTICAL OBJECTIVES aimed at IMPROVING THEIR LOGISTICAL POSITION and DISRUPTING UKRAINIAN SUPPLY LINES in the KUPYANSK DIRECTION. This REQUIRES VERIFICATION.

23. CANADA-US TRADE TENSIONS (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED):

    • Alex Parker Returns (17:50) states that the US has declared tariffs against Canada.
    • Assessment: No change.

Updated Situation Summary

• RUSSIAN FORCES CONTINUE OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS IN MULTIPLE DIRECTIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED/CONFIRMED): Fighting reported in ZAPORIZHZHIA (PYATIKHATKI), KHARKIV (LIPTY, VOLCHANSK, DVURECHNAYA, BOROVSKOYE), and KHERSON OBLASTS. Russian forces are reportedly committing reserves in some areas. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
• POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN INCURSION INTO RUSSIAN TERRITORY (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Report of Ukrainian force accumulation near Sudzha, Kursk Oblast. REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION.
• POTENTIAL SHIFT IN US POLICY CONTINUES TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): US officials continue to suggest a link between military aid and peace negotiations, potentially pressuring Ukraine.
• UKRAINIAN DRONE WARFARE CONTINUES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED/REPORTED): Ukrainian forces continue to use drones effectively to target Russian equipment and personnel.
• RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE ACTIVE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Russian Strela-10 system reportedly destroyed a Ukrainian drone.
• RUSSIA CONTINUES TO PUSH FOR A CLAIM OVER THE ENTIRE KHERSON REGION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Reportedly conducting high-risk missions.
• EUTELSAT NEGOTIATING WITH EU TO PROVIDE INTERNET ACCESS TO UKRAINE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Potentially reducing reliance on Starlink.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCES AND POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN INCURSION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Utilize all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE reported RUSSIAN ADVANCES in ZAPORIZHZHIA, KHARKIV, and KHERSON OBLASTS.
   • Urgently investigate the report of UKRAINIAN FORCE ACCUMULATION near SUDZHA, KURSK OBLAST, and ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INCURSION.
   • Prepare for potential Russian escalation in ALL REPORTED AREAS OF OFFENSIVE ACTIVITY.

2. ADDRESS POTENTIAL SHIFT IN US POLICY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION): NO CHANGE.

   • Gather further information on the US POSITION regarding MILITARY AID and PEACE NEGOTIATIONS.
   • Assess the potential impact of this policy shift on UKRAINE'S MILITARY CAPABILITIES and NEGOTIATING POSITION.
   • Prepare for potential scenarios, including REDUCED US MILITARY SUPPORT.
   • Engage in diplomatic efforts to CLARIFY US INTENTIONS and MAINTAIN SUPPORT.

3. MAINTAIN UKRAINIAN DRONE WARFARE CAPABILITIES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • Continue to prioritize the USE OF DRONES for RECONNAISSANCE, TARGETING, and STRIKES.
   • Ensure adequate supply of DRONES AND MUNITIONS.
   • Protect drone operators and infrastructure from RUSSIAN ATTACKS.

4. ADDRESS POTENTIAL DISRUPTION OF INTERNET ACCESS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Support efforts to SECURE ALTERNATIVE INTERNET ACCESS through EUTELSAT or OTHER PROVIDERS.
   • Assess the vulnerability of EXISTING INTERNET INFRASTRUCTURE to RUSSIAN ATTACKS.

5. COUNTER RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION): NO CHANGE.

   • Disseminate accurate information regarding UKRAINIAN MILITARY OPERATIONS and RUSSIAN ACTIONS.
   • Highlight Russian war crimes and HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS.
   • Strengthen public resilience to RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION.

6. MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DYNAMIC AND DANGEROUS. The REPORTED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS across MULTIPLE FRONTS, the POTENTIAL FOR A UKRAINIAN INCURSION INTO RUSSIA, and the UNCERTAIN US POSITION are all MAJOR CONCERNS. CONTINUOUS INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, RAPID ANALYSIS, AND DECISIVE ACTION are ESSENTIAL.