Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 3, 2025, 15:01 UTC

Changes and New Information (14:32 UTC - 15:01 UTC)

1. US NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DIRECTOR CRITICIZES ZELENSKY (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, VIDEO):

   • Colonelcassad (14:32 UTC) posts a video of Tulsi Gabbard, identified as the new US Director of National Intelligence, criticizing Zelensky on Fox News. Gabbard cites cancelled elections, banned political parties, persecution of the opposition, closed churches, and total state control of the media as evidence that Ukraine is not fighting for freedom.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES THE TREND of INCREASING US CRITICISM OF ZELENSKY. Gabbard's position as a HIGH-RANKING INTELLIGENCE OFFICIAL gives her statements SIGNIFICANT WEIGHT. The SOURCE (Colonelcassad) is PRO-RUSSIAN, but the CONTENT ALIGNS with OTHER REPORTS of US DISSATISFACTION. This FURTHER INCREASES PRESSURE ON ZELENSKY and SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL SHIFT in US POLICY.

2. RUSSIAN MILITARY COURT SENTENCES UKRAINIAN PILOTS (LOW PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • TASS (14:32 UTC) reports that a Russian military court sentenced Ukrainian pilots Morozov and Shimansky to 26 years in prison for terrorism, citing around ten crimes.
   • Assessment: This has NO IMMEDIATE MILITARY IMPACT but serves as RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA to DEMONIZE UKRAINIAN FORCES.

3. TRUMP TO ADDRESS CONGRESS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (14:32 UTC) and STERNENKO (14:22 UTC) report that Trump will address a joint session of Congress. NPR expects the speech to mention the wars in Ukraine and Israel, but focus primarily on domestic issues. Colonelcassad (14:22 UTC) suggests Trump is building suspense.
   • Assessment: This is a POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT EVENT. Trump's speech could provide CLARITY on US POLICY TOWARDS UKRAINE. It's UNCLEAR whether he will ADDRESS THE ZELENSKY ISSUE DIRECTLY, but his COMMENTS WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHED.

4. RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKE IN MIROPOLYE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, VIDEO):

   • Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (14:43 UTC) reports a Russian FPV drone strike on a Ukrainian temporary deployment point in Miropolye, claiming to have destroyed a group of Ukrainian forces. Includes video.
   • Assessment: REQUIRES INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION. The VIDEO appears to SHOW A STRIKE, but the TARGET AND CASUALTIES are UNCLEAR.

5. UKRAINIAN MINISTRY OF ENERGY ON IAEA ROTATION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (14:43 UTC) reports that the Ukrainian Ministry of Energy considers the IAEA rotation at the ZNPP without Ukrainian approval unacceptable. Minister of Energy Herman Halushchenko sent a letter to the IAEA after the agency conducted the rotation through temporarily occupied territories.
   • Assessment: REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of UKRAINIAN OUTRAGE at the IAEA'S ACTIONS. The LETTER to the IAEA indicates UKRAINIAN EFFORTS to ADDRESS THE ISSUE DIPLOMATICALLY.

6. UKRAINIAN CLAIMS ON RETURNING DESERTERS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (14:37 UTC) reports that over 21,000 Ukrainian soldiers have returned to the Armed Forces after being AWOL (Absent Without Official Leave) in the last four months, citing the State Bureau of Investigations.
   • Assessment: Indicates the need to deal with desertion and improve personnel management.

7. RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKE ON UKRAINIAN TEMPORARY POSITION IN DNR (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, VIDEO):

   • Дневник Десантника (14:53 UTC) reports a Russian airstrike with a FAB-3000 bomb on a Ukrainian temporary deployment point in Komar, DNR, supported by air reconnaissance. Includes video.
   • Assessment: The VIDEO appears to SHOW A LARGE EXPLOSION. The USE OF A FAB-3000 indicates a SIGNIFICANT AIRSTRIKE. REQUIRES INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION of the TARGET AND CASUALTIES.

8. UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE LIFTS BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT, MAINTAINS AIR STRIKE THREAT (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (14:55 UTC) announces the lifting of the ballistic missile threat in all areas except Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts. It maintains a threat of airstrikes due to activity of Russian tactical aviation in the south-eastern and southern directions.
   • Assessment: Indicates a REDUCTION IN IMMEDIATE THREAT LEVEL in MOST AREAS, but MAINTAINS A HIGH ALERT for ZAPORIZHZHIA AND KHERSON OBLASTS.

Updated Situation Summary

• INCREASING US PRESSURE ON ZELENSKY CONTINUES (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Tulsi Gabbard's criticism, as a high-ranking intelligence official, adds significant weight to the growing US dissatisfaction with Zelensky.
• TRUMP TO ADDRESS CONGRESS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): A potentially significant event that could clarify US policy towards Ukraine.
• IAEA ROTATION AT ZNPP REMAINS A MAJOR ISSUE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Ukrainian Ministry of Energy formally protests the IAEA's actions.
• RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES CONTINUE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Reports of strikes in Miropolye and Komar, DNR, with the latter using a FAB-3000 bomb.
• BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT REDUCED, BUT AIR STRIKE THREAT REMAINS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): High alert maintained for Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts.
• UKRAINIAN CLAIMS ON RETURNING DESERTERS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Indicates the need to deal with desertion and improve personnel management.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN HIGH AIR DEFENSE READINESS IN ZAPORIZHZHIA AND KHERSON OBLASTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • Maintain maximum alert status for ALL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS in ZAPORIZHZHIA AND KHERSON OBLASTS.
   • Utilize updated information on THREAT DIRECTIONS to OPTIMIZE AIR DEFENSE DEPLOYMENT.
   • Increase surveillance and PATROLS to DETECT AND INTERCEPT DRONES AND MISSILES.
   • Issue immediate warnings to CIVILIAN POPULATIONS in the AFFECTED AREAS.

2. PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL POLICY SHIFTS FOLLOWING TRUMP'S ADDRESS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Closely monitor Trump's address to Congress for ANY STATEMENTS REGARDING UKRAINE.
   • Analyze the implications of ANY POLICY CHANGES announced by TRUMP.
   • Develop contingency plans for VARIOUS SCENARIOS, including REDUCED US SUPPORT.

3. CONTINUE DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS REGARDING IAEA AND ZNPP (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • Maintain pressure on the IAEA to RESPECT UKRAINIAN SOVEREIGNTY and ADDRESS CONCERNS regarding the ZNPP.
   • Explore all diplomatic channels to ENSURE THE SAFETY AND SECURITY of the PLANT.

4. VERIFY REPORTS OF RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Gather intelligence on the REPORTED AIRSTRIKES in MIROPOLYE AND KOMAR.
   • Verify the targets and assess casualties.
   • Document any evidence of civilian harm.

5. ADDRESS UKRAINIAN DESERTION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Investigate the reason behind desertion and take necessary steps to remedy the situation.
   • Improve personnel management.

6. MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains highly dynamic, with increasing pressure on Zelensky from the US, ongoing military activity, and a looming potential shift in US policy following Trump's address. The IAEA's actions at the ZNPP continue to be a major concern. Continued vigilance and rapid adaptation are crucial.