Situation Report

Updated Situation Summary: March 3, 2025, 10:31 UTC

• NATIONWIDE AIR RAID ALERT IN UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, RESOLVED): The nationwide air raid alert triggered by the takeoff of a MiG-31K has been LARGELY LIFTED, but ALERT REMAINS IN ZAPORIZHZHIA AND DONETSK REGIONS due to CONTINUED ACTIVITY OF RUSSIAN TACTICAL AVIATION. Guided aerial bomb launches were reported on the border of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk regions, and in Zaporizhzhia oblast itself.

• INTENSE FIGHTING CONTINUES, KURSK REGION A MAJOR FOCUS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED/REPORTED): Fighting is particularly intense in the KURSK REGION, where RUSSIAN FORCES, INCLUDING CHECHEN UNITS, CLAIM ADVANCES and UKRAINIAN FORCES REPORT FACING SUPPLY DIFFICULTIES. Reports of RUSSIAN FPV DRONE STRIKES in the KURSK OBLAST further support this.

• RUSSIAN AIR AND DRONE WARFARE CONTINUES, WIDESPREAD STRIKES REPORTED (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED/CONFIRMED): Reports continue of Russian widespread attacks, including air and drones, across Ukraine. The Russian MoD claims to have SHOT DOWN 7 UKRAINIAN DRONES overnight. Russian forces also claim to have used an AIR STRIKE against a Ukrainian deployment point in GULYAIPOLE, ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION, claiming dozens of casualties. Strikes are also reported against Ukrainian brigade formations in Zaporizhzhia and the DPR, including Dniproenerhiya. GUIDED AERIAL BOMB LAUNCHES reported in SUMY and DONETSK REGIONS.

• IMMINENT ASSAULT ON KOSTIANTYNIVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Video and reports suggest an imminent Russian assault on Kostiantynivka. Claims that Ukrainian forces are using ELECTRONIC WARFARE (EW) in the area, potentially causing collateral damage.

• CONFIRMED RUSSIAN MISSILE STRIKE ON UKRAINIAN MILITARY UNIT WITH SIGNIFICANT CASUALTIES (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): UKRAINIAN COMMANDER PROMISES THOROUGH INVESTIGATION AND ACCOUNTABILITY. REPEATED INCIDENTS HIGHLIGHT A PATTERN OF VULNERABILITY AND NEGLIGENCE.

• EUROPEAN SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE UNCERTAIN WITHOUT US (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): REPORTS INDICATE EU IS NOT READY TO SUPPORT UKRAINE WITHOUT US ASSISTANCE. HUNGARY REPORTEDLY BLOCKED an EU document on security guarantees and military aid for Ukraine.

• NO AGREEMENT ON CEASEFIRE, CONTRADICTING PREVIOUS REPORTS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): UK SOURCES DENY ANY AGREEMENT ON A CEASEFIRE, undermining hopes for de-escalation.

• POTENTIAL DISRUPTION OF UKRAINIAN COMMUNICATIONS(HIGH PRIORITY): Russian claims of the destruction of a Starlink satellite need verification.

• RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATION IN DONETSK (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Fighting around multiple key cities.

• RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES IN SUMY AND DONETSK REGIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Ongoing aerial bomb launches reported in the area.

• POSSIBLE ISKANDER STRIKE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Report of Iskander strike with a cluster warhead in Dnipropetrovsk.

• RUSSIAN FORCES IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Reports on damage due to the aftermatch of Russian Strikes.

• RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES IN THE KHARKIV REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): Reports of Russian air activity and targeting in the Kharkiv region.

• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN HIGH AIR DEFENSE READINESS IN ZAPORIZHZHIA AND DONETSK REGIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Maintain HIGH ALERT STATUS for ALL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS in ZAPORIZHZHIA and DONETSK REGIONS due to the CONTINUED ACTIVITY OF RUSSIAN TACTICAL AVIATION.
   • Issue and maintain public warnings and INSTRUCTIONS FOR SHELTERING.
   • Prepare for potential casualties and damage to INFRASTRUCTURE.
   • Prioritize interception of guided aerial bombs.

2. ADDRESS FALLOUT OF RUSSIAN MISSILE STRIKE ON UKRAINIAN MILITARY UNIT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): (Same as previous, no change)

3. MAINTAIN EXTREME VIGILANCE AND DEFENSIVE POSTURE ACROSS ALL FRONTS, ESPECIALLY KURSK AND DONETSK (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION): (Same as previous, no change)

4. REINFORCE DEFENSES IN AREAS OF INTENSE FIGHTING (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): (Same as previous, no change)

5. INVESTIGATE THE UFA REFINERY CAUSE AND GATHER FOOTAGE (EXTREME PRIORITY): (Same as previous, no change)

6. COUNTER RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION): (Same as previous, no change)

7. CLOSELY MONITOR US POLICY DEVELOPMENTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION): (Same as previous, no change)

8. VERIFY REPORTS OF FORCED DEPLOYMENT OF RUSSIAN SOLDIERS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): (Same as previous, no change)

9. ADDRESS THE BLOCKADE OF AID BY HUNGARY (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE DIPLOMATIC ACTION): REINFORCE DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS with EU LEADERS to OVERCOME HUNGARY'S OBJECTION to the aid package. Explore alternative routes or mechanisms for delivering aid if necessary.

10. MONITOR FRENCH RECON ACTIVITY IN THE BLACK SEA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION): (Same as previous, no change)

11. MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE READINESS ACROSS ALL OF UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

    • Maintain MAXIMUM ALERT STATUS for ALL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS across UKRAINE due to the MiG-31K TAKEOFF and THREAT OF KINZHAL MISSILE STRIKES.
    • Issue and maintain public warnings and INSTRUCTIONS FOR SHELTERING.
    • Prepare for potential casualties and damage to INFRASTRUCTURE.
    • Prioritize the interception of Kinzhal missiles.

12. CONFIRM DAMAGE TO SWISS CONTAINERSHIP (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

• Utilize sources to assess damage.
• Dispatch investigation teams.

13. ASSESS CAPTURED SOLDIER CLAIMS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

• Assess claims and verify their authenticity.
• Take steps to improve morale.

14. ENSURE ALL STRATEGIC RECOMMENDATIONS FROM PREVIOUS REPORTS ARE CARRIED OUT.

The situation remains highly critical. While the nationwide air raid alert has been mostly lifted, the CONTINUED THREAT in ZAPORIZHZHIA and DONETSK REGIONS, combined with the ONGOING FIGHTING and REPORTED RUSSIAN STRIKES, requires CONSTANT VIGILANCE AND RAPID RESPONSE. The CONFIRMED MISSILE STRIKE on the Ukrainian military unit and the potential assault on KOSTIANTYNIVKA remain HIGH PRIORITY CONCERNS. The UNCERTAINTY surrounding INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT, particularly from the US and due to Hungary's actions, adds another layer of complexity.