Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 2, 2025, 22:31 UTC
Changes and New Information (22:01 UTC - 22:31 UTC)
CONFIRMED GERAN' DRONE STRIKES IN KRYVYI RIH AND KHARKIV (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Colonelcassad (22:02 UTC) reports "Geran'" (Shahed) drones strikes in Kryvyi Rih, describing them as "arrivals." Also mentions previous strikes in Kharkiv, calling it "daily routine."
Assessment: This CONFIRMS the DRONE ATTACKS in KRYVYI RIH and HARKOV reported earlier. The use of the term "Geran'" SPECIFICALLY IDENTIFIES the TYPE OF DRONE as the IRANIAN-DESIGNED SHAHED, commonly used by Russia. The phrase "daily routine" suggests REGULAR AND SUSTAINED DRONE ATTACKS on these cities.
ZHITOMIR OBLAST DRONE THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (22:04 UTC) reports a threat of attack drones in Zhytomyr Oblast, originating from Vinnytsia Oblast.
Assessment: This indicates a WESTWARD SPREAD of the DRONE ATTACKS. ZHITOMIR OBLAST becomes a NEW AREA OF CONCERN. The drones' movement from VINNITSYA OBLAST suggests a TRAJECTORY possibly targeting areas FURTHER WEST in Ukraine.
NEW DRONE GROUPS IN MYKOLAIV OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (22:06 UTC) reports new groups of attack drones in Kherson Oblast, heading towards Mykolaiv Oblast.
Nikolaevskiy Vanyok (22:05 UTC) reports:
1 drone from Vinnytsia Oblast moving to Zhytomyr Oblast.
1 drone north of Uman.
2 drones in Bilotserkivskyi district.
1 drone south of Chernihiv.
1 drone in the Zlatopil area of Kharkiv Oblast.
2 drones from the west of Kirovohrad Oblast moving to Vinnytsia Oblast.
4 drones near Novyi Buh.
2 drones passing Bereznehuvate towards Novyi Buh.
1 drone north of Mykolaiv, heading towards Voznesenskyi district.
Assessment:REINFORCES THE WIDESPREAD AND MULTI-DIRECTIONAL NATURE OF THE DRONE ATTACKS. MYKOLAIV OBLAST is facing an INCREASED THREAT from MULTIPLE DRONE GROUPS approaching from KHERSON OBLAST. The detailed reports from Nikolaevskiy Vanyok provide a COMPREHENSIVE PICTURE OF DRONE MOVEMENTS across SEVERAL OBLASTS, indicating a COMPLEX AND COORDINATED ATTACK.
Alex Parker Returns (22:05) reports a strike on an oil refinery in Chernikovka, Ufa.
РБК-Україна (22:14 UTC) reports at least two explosions in Ufa near a local refinery, with drone sounds heard in the sky.
Оперативний ЗСУ (22:20) Reports a preliminary hit on the local petrochemical enterprise "Orgsintez"
Assessment: This represents a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. Ufa is located DEEP WITHIN RUSSIAN TERRITORY, far from the front lines. A successful strike on an OIL REFINERY there demonstrates a MAJOR INCREASE IN UKRAINIAN LONG-RANGE STRIKE CAPABILITY. This has STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS, as it shows UKRAINE CAN TARGET CRITICAL RUSSIAN INFRASTRUCTURE far beyond the immediate combat zone. This is HIGHLY LIKELY TO BE A UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK, given the reported sounds and the distance from the front lines.
RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Colonelcassad (22:20:59): Reports that the air defense systems were active that night, in four regions. Reports the strike in Ufa.
Assessment: Confirms the presence of drones over Russian territories.
ZELENSKY MEETING WITH KING CHARLES III (LOW PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Zelenskiy / Official (22:07 UTC) reports a meeting with King Charles III in the UK.
Assessment:SYMBOLIC SUPPORT from the UK. UNLIKELY TO HAVE IMMEDIATE MILITARY IMPLICATIONS, but reinforces DIPLOMATIC TIES and potential for FUTURE SUPPORT.
UKRAINIAN EVACUATION VIDEO (MEDIUM PRIORITY, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (22:26:38): Publishes a video of the 28th brigade evacuating a wounded soldier.
Assessment: The video shows evacuation and first aid operations.
RUSSIAN ACCUSATION OF UKRAINIAN FALSE FLAG OPERATIONS (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Воин DV (22:29) reports a claim that Ukrainian National Guard is training drone operators to destroy civilian vehicles and blame Russian forces.
Assessment: This is a TYPICAL PROPAGANDA CLAIM from a PRO-RUSSIAN SOURCE. REQUIRES EXTREME SKEPTICISM. It's a COMMON TACTIC to ACCUSE THE OPPONENT of the VERY ACTIONS one is PLANNING OR EXECUTING. NO EVIDENCE is presented.
ZELENSKY'S POSITION (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Alex Parker Returns (22:27 UTC) reports on Zelensky's statements about potentially being replaced in exchange for NATO membership.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (22:20:42) reports that Zelensky stated that he will resign from his position if NATO were to accept Ukraine.
Assessment: Further confirms previous news.
Updated Situation Summary
WIDESPREAD AND INTENSIFYING DRONE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Drone attacks are SPREADING WESTWARD, with ZHITOMIR OBLAST now under THREAT. MULTIPLE DRONE GROUPS are targeting MYKOLAIV OBLAST. KRYVYI RIH and HARKOV have been CONFIRMED AS TARGETED.
UFA REFINERY ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED/CONFIRMED): A MAJOR DEVELOPMENT indicating a SIGNIFICANT INCREASE in UKRAINIAN LONG-RANGE STRIKE CAPABILITY.
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
Updated Recommendations
MAINTAIN EXTREME AIR DEFENSE READINESS ACROSS UKRAINE, EXPAND TO ZHITOMIR (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Maintain maximum alert status for ALL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS, with PRIORITY ON MYKOLAIV, ZHITOMIR, VINNITSYA, AND KIROVOHRAD OBLASTS.
Deploy additional air defense assets to ZHITOMIR OBLAST to COUNTER THE NEW THREAT.
Utilize all available intelligence on DRONE TRAJECTORIES to OPTIMIZE DEFENSE DEPLOYMENT.
Coordinate with allies to SHARE INFORMATION and REQUEST ASSISTANCE if needed.
INVESTIGATE AND RESPOND TO UFA REFINERY ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE AND ONGOING ACTION):
Gather all available intelligence on the UFA REFINERY ATTACK, including SATELLITE IMAGERY, DRONE DEBRIS (if possible), AND HUMAN INTELLIGENCE.
Assess the damage to the refinery and its IMPACT ON RUSSIAN FUEL PRODUCTION AND LOGISTICS.
Analyze the attack method to DETERMINE THE TYPE OF DRONE USED AND ITS LAUNCH LOCATION. This will provide CRITICAL INFORMATION on UKRAINIAN LONG-RANGE STRIKE CAPABILITIES.
Prepare for potential Russian retaliation and INCREASE SECURITY at KEY UKRAINIAN INFRASTRUCTURE SITES.
Publicly refute the RUSSIAN CLAIM about UKRAINIAN FORCES TARGETING CIVILIAN VEHICLES.
Provide evidence of RUSSIAN ATTACKS ON CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE.
Highlight the humanitarian impact of RUSSIAN AGGRESSION.
MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation has become EVEN MORE DANGEROUS AND COMPLEX. The WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACKS and the SUCCESSFUL STRIKE DEEP WITHIN RUSSIA represent a MAJOR ESCALATION. RAPID AND DECISIVE ACTION is required to PROTECT UKRAINIAN INFRASTRUCTURE and COUNTER RUSSIAN AGGRESSION. The UKRAINIAN LONG-RANGE STRIKE CAPABILITY has SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED, which CHANGES THE STRATEGIC CALCULUS.
